UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Do you need a hug your killing my buzz.
Pick who you want im not invested here.
Peace out homeslice.

Evloev vs. Mitchell
Movsar Evloev, DEC
Fairly certain he'll take a decision as I can't see him finishing Bryce.

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
Marina should win this but the line is insaaanely fishy.

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO
Yes I know Smith is a spastic but Porter coming back 2 months after being out cold is not smart. Porter also has apparently lost a lot of weight which may hinder his ability to get the fight to the ground against a stocky nugget.

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Claudio Ribeiro, TKO, R2
Holmes lost to Pickett.

@LiLSlaW Hope the nugget KO’s him fast

I don't know where the whole "Belal is gonna have a terrible weight cut because of Ramadan" came from but it doesn't really make sense to me. Even if Belal normally cuts +25lbs to make MW it all but certainly isn't that much after a month of literally intermittent fasting. From a biochemistry standpoint a weight cut should be much easier after doing that for a month (unless Belal was literally hitting a buffet every night when he was allowed to eat, which as a serious professional athlete I highly doubt).

For a supposedly top 5 contender who's trying to fight anybody, anywhere, anytime I think 3 weeks is plenty of time to get ready for a fight (especially when your opponent just fought and you didnt). I think Belal was just holding out for Colby this entire time but ultimately accepted the writing on the wall that the UFC wasn't gonna let that happen.

With Belal beating Jorge, he's 8-2 in his last 10 and Belal is 9-1 in his last 10. It doesn't get anymore high profile than that and once the UFC agreed to make it 5 rounds, Bully couldn't say no.

I don't expect either guy to have any cardio or conditioning issues whatsoever despite Bully only getting 3 weeks to prepare and Burns just recently fighting. Both guys are too good at what they do and they know those are excuses they cant accept or use if they truly want to be a champion, which I wholeheartedly believe both do. 

"This is not ok, Greg"

@foppa420 what?

First off this card is real good but Dober vs Frevola should be on the ppv and the fact that it isn't makes me feel like...a *************. 

Anyways. Overall I love this card. I also like turtles. 

Aljo is a real good fighter and I love his submission skills. Some of the submissions he has hit are ******* nasty. Very unique style. 

With that said I think he has to beat Henry in the first 3 rounds to win this fight. Either via a finish or winning all 3 rounds, perhaps one being a 10-8. 

Aljo really fades in the last 2 rounds and especially so when A.) The opponent pressures and B.) when he can not hit takedowns when he wants to buy a few minutes of working less hard than he does with his movement and striking. 

I see Cejudo stopping most if not all of these takedowns and peppering Aljo with boxing combinations finished with low kicks to the calf and head kicks which would force Aljo to either expend a lot of energy to get out of range or block the high kick with his forearms, thusly hurting future takedown attempts. 

Perhaps Cejudo has lost a step in explosiveness at 36 but I am not sure how much will be lost if any. 

I bank on Cejudo winning a late round stoppage or a decision where he almost finishes a tired Aljo in the 4th or 5th round. 

Cejudo via UD

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Henry Cejudo, TKO, R2
PRELIM PICK: 1

Muhammad vs. Burns
Belal Muhammad, DEC
PRELIM PICK: 3

Andrade vs. Yan
Xiaonan Yan, TKO, R2
PRELIM PICK: STUFFING

Evloev vs. Mitchell
Movsar Evloev, TKO, R2
PRELIM PICK: 2

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Kron Gracie, DEC
PRELIM PICK: 3

Dober vs. Frevola
Matt Frevola, TKO, R1
PRELIM PICK: 2

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu, DEC
PRELIM PICK: 2

Williams vs. Bedoya
Khaos Williams, DEC
PRELIM PICK: 2

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez, TKO, R2
PRELIM PICK: STUFFING

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO, R1
PRELIM PICK: 2

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov, TKO, R1
PRELIM PICK: 1

Zhumagulov vs. Estevam
Rafael Estevam, SUB, R2
PRELIM PICK: 3

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Claudio Ribeiro, TKO, R2
PRELIM PICK: 2

Santos vs. Munoz Jr.
Daniel Santos, SUB, R1
PRELIM PICK: 2

no one cares about your love for turtles bro this is an mma forum

I picked Yan both times and bet Sterling both times. In fact I've probably bet against Yan more than anyone on this forum. Not because I don't think he's a fantastic fighter because I do, but because he's been perennially overrated in betting lines against other elite fighters.

* Edited at 05.02.2023, 11:35 AM ET *

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, TKO, R1
I see this fight ending in a first round knockout for Drew Dober. Both are going out there to stand and bang with each other, and in a fight like that, I see The Crimson Chin coming out on top 10 out of 10 times. If someone like Terrance McKinney can put out in round one, I don't see where Dober struggles. He's already put out Bobby Green, Terrance McKinney himself, and Rafael Alves.

@baremaras 

Lol. Yes that was the vast majority of the content of my post. 

I will be in attendance and take some pictures for you bums.

https://theathletic.com/4478579/2023/05/02/met-gala-fashion-rankings/

^^^Amongst the rotating Tapology news headlines

Sterling wins this Satuday and people are not ready to hear this.

Hear me out i get it Cejudo is a 2 division champ but he has been out of competition for 3 years. Look at his lifestyle now doing podcasts with Mike Tyson, flying private, full time coach and father and out of usada pool. What’s the reason he’s coming back? To prove he’s the best bantamweight champ of all time after 3 year of layoff? I doubt it.

Cejudo is COMING BACK to collect that paycheck since he’s expecting another baby. He’s 36 years old that’s old for such division this isn’t heavyweight division where you can get away with this age.

Cejudo doesn’t have the submission and one KO punch to put Sterling away. Only way he can win is decision.

People question Sterling cardio yes he’s always had issues with cardio but look at the guys who he’s fought especially Petr Yan. In this case i would question Cejudo cardio can he weather the storm of Sterling in the first couple of rounds?

Sterling has better resume than Cejudo. Sterling > Petr Yan twice, Sandhagen, TJ, Munhoz, Rivera versus Cruz, Moraes, drained TJ at 125 and undersized DJ.

I’m telling you all Sterling is being undervalued at pick em odds. He should be -150 in this fight due to his activity, better competition, age, size and hometown advantage.

Thank me later. Out

* Edited at 05.02.2023, 12:52 PM ET *

Diego lopes is hinting he might be replacing someone on this card. Could be kron or jourdain 

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Henry Cejudo, TKO, R2
henry should have him covered in every department, i dont see aljo holding henry down or submitting him, i also dont see him knocking henry out, Henry should find a tko finish at some point

Muhammad vs. Burns
Belal Muhammad, DEC
i think belal can edge him in 5 rounds... dont even know if gilbert has 5 round cardio

Andrade vs. Yan
Xiaonan Yan, DEC
yan can win, she could outstrike jessica, my worry would be jessica controlling her on the ground with pure power... which easily could happen.. but im taking yan

Evloev vs. Mitchell
Movsar Evloev, DEC
topuria took bryces heart lol, evloev looks solid

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Charles Jourdain, TKO, R2
jourdain sux if he loses this 1

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, TKO, R1
dober should ko him... frevola is kinda big with good wrestling but dober has faced much better

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Devin Clark, DEC
no idea who to take here... just decided that clark will get it done via wrestling.... kennedy isnt that guy

Williams vs. Bedoya
Khaos Williams, DEC
williams has faced way harder guys... gonna ride with williams dec or ko

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
marina is shud be good

Porter vs. Smith
Parker Porter, TKO, R2
braxton gets hit good and falls down like a girl

@Rah123 Amazing how close to reality is that what you said. I am impressed. Where was everybody when Sterling had 1st fight with YAN? He was like a dummy taken down by non grappler and was not able to make his own takedowns by unlimited attempts. Now he has improved in 2 years and became undisputed champ champ? Common guys use your brain , Cejudo will dominate and win. Switch on your brain, not emotions.

Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo

I honestly am not betting a winner. I honestly do not see bad value with this fight not going the distance at +100. I think that line will most definitely move.

Going to go out on a limb and say its Kron. That's a great late replacement though.