UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

 "The Uninspired Gastelum" narrative feels like a false narrative to me.   

• I think a lot of this narrative comes from the Hermansson fight. That was a fair win to Jack, but Curtis isn't locking up any legs. 

• Gastelum followed that up with a convincing win over Heinisch and then fought five hard rounds against Whittaker. Rob was clearly the better fighter, but Kelvin fought to the bell and Rob's take downs/wrestling were big factors in that fight. Curtis isn't shooting any take downs and doesn't have the diverse striking game of Whittaker. He is a good boxer and that is about it.

• Then the Cannonier fight was close as hell. Kelvin didn't look done in that fight. It was 48-47 and Gastelum was the one pressuring and pushing the pace in the 5th round. He isn't fighting like someone who doesn't want to be in there. This isn't a Tyron Woodley situation to me.

Curtis is a little too reliant on the KO. He doesn't have a good style for winning minutes and Kelvin has a granite chin.

• Just check out the kill shot Cannonier landed on Gastelum early in the 3rd round. I have no clue how Kelvin popped right back up. And you can even argue he won the rest of the round. The knockdown wins the round but if that didn't put him out, Whittaker's high kick didn't put him out, and Izzy couldn't put him out - then I am just not counting on Curtis to do it. He is 100% capable of it, but Kelvin has an all-time chin.

• When Curtis is getting pressured he loves to shell up with a high guard. He will let his opponent put his back against the cage and block most of their offense. It works well when his opponent tires out, but it's not great for winning minutes or securing decision. It is the classic "bad visual for the judges". The only decision on his recent run was the Rodolfo Viera fight. And all the respect to Viera's BJJ game, but he is not the same competitor in MMA or known for his cardio. And Curtis should have probably won that more convincingly considering how green Viera is. 

• When Curtis uses his shell he leaves his front leg out there to get beat up. 
  • Viera landed 16 out of 16 leg shots, Hermansson 27 out of 30,  Buckley 8 of 9, Allen 8 of 9, and Phil Hawes 9 of 9.
  • Kelvin landed 19 of 23 on Cannonier, 13 of 14 on Whittaker, 8 of 9 on Heinisch, 21 of 26 on Till, and 11 of 13 on Izzy. He wasn't really using leg kicks in his game before that, but it could be a big minute winner for him.
  • Curtis just flat out doesn't address leg kicks and Gastelum usually finishes his combos with a leg kick. Now imagine Curtis shelling up for the combo and Kelvin just beating up the leg when he does this. That is going to win minutes.
  • Kelvin being a southpaw also makes it easier for him to get the kicks off on that front leg.

 

This should be one of the first times at Middleweight that Gastelum matches up well physically with his opponent.
 

• IMO neither guy has an ideal frame for MW. Both are about the same height and Curtis has a little bit of a reach advantage, but I think Gastelum is the bigger guy in his chest and back. I only think this matters because when you watch the Cannonier fight (or most Gastelum MW fights) it is clear Gastelum struggled with his physicality. Gastelum would get in on Cannonier's hips, but couldn't complete the takedown because of the size and strength difference. 
• Heinisch was one of the few MWs that didn't have a massive size advantage on Gastelum and he secured 6 takedowns and had 6:50 of control time in that fight. Curtis does have top notch takedown defense, but I don't even think Gastelum needs to secure the takedowns. As long as he can use the threat to push him up against the cage it is going to help him win minutes. Plus if Gastelum can time a takedown when Curtis uses the high guard it would be much easier for him to secure it.

 

TLDR: I just think Gastelum wins this fight more times than Curtis. His record is ugly as hell, but he is in there with the top of the division fighting 5 round main events. Curtis has the ability to catch him or win a greasy split decision, but Gastelum just has more ways to win this fight and only has to deal with 3 rounds again. If Curtis doesn't get the KO I can easily see a world where Gastelum pressures him against the cage, beats up the front leg, threatens some takedowns, and gets cage control. Curtis has been reliant on using his shell to tire out his opponents and land counters. But Buckley is chinny (4 career KOs) with not a great gas tank. And I think Curtis was losing that fight until he found the KO. Allen had just gotten KOed a year before their fight by Sean Strickland - and Strickland doesn't KO anyone. Hawes last 3 loses were by KO. I don't see that working as well with a fighter like Gastelum.

I don't this is a lock and a split decision either way wouldn't surprise me. But IMO Gastelum should be the slight favorite, possibly all the way up to -150. Someone please call me crazy and tell me not to bet on a guy who has lost 5 of his last 6.
 

@Mrlzdik nice breakdown. What makes me really confident in Kelvin is that he is finally fighting someone his own size. I think that’s gonna make a huge difference. Kelvin hasn’t fought anyone his own size in like 8 years or something, which is insane. I also like the time off and camp switch for Kelvin. Taking the short notice fights didn’t really do much good for him and he’s now at fight ready, back in his home state of Arizona. I think fight ready is one of the best mma gyms out there; I think their coaching and game planning is as good as it gets. I love Curtis, but I think him being a slow starter and someone who is content to play defense is gonna cost him here 

I though his last fight was Kelvin best performance since Izzy, I thought it was a clear 3-2 decision against a top 5 guy, His fight's  before that, He lost to Till, Got instant sub by Jack, Beat Henish in a fight which was a win buy wasn't impressive, And got destroyed by Rob Whitaker,

I think I have the same vibe with Kelvin as Font, But It's Kelvin losing streak instead of Font Chin, I want to pick Kelvin because he the better fighter and he be motivated because if he loses this one, He'll be re-matching Till in Bellator, But also scared off  picking Kelvin because of his losing streak

Waterson-Gomez vs. Pinheiro
Luana Pinheiro, DEC
It's

People sleeping on masvidal and kelvin at those odds right now they are a absolute bargain..if burns doesn’t get Jorge down I got sneaky feeling he’s getting put to sleep..and kelvin is not getting finish by Curtis I know that..Curtis also seems to be very low output at times which I think will be his downfall in this fight think kelvin pulls it out in a competitive decision 

Very possible depends who shows up on game day on a good night Jorge and Kelvin beat most guys.

Pereira goes for murder 

Rosas Jr. vs. Rodriguez
Christian Rodriguez, SUB, R1
"Every once in a while a person comes along who defies the odds, who defies logic, and fulfills an incredible dream."

Holland vs. Ponzinibbio
Kevin Holland, DEC
A few years ago, this would have been a more competitive match up however I feel as if age might have caught up with Ponzinibbio yes, he got the W the last time however Alex Morono was a late replacement and made it a competitive fight. Kevin is much younger and yes in recent years his fight IQ has been brought into question however trailblazer has always been good in the striking department and this matchup favours him. The former TUF Brazilian finalist is 11-5 in the UFC and his three recent losses two are via split decision with all 3 being ranked opponents. On paper, Ponzinibbio resume looks more impressive and if this fight took place 3 years ago, I would go with the Argentina dagger easily but I feel as though time is not on his side. He could take advantage of Holland coming off his 2 straight losses and hand injury as once again we looking at Ponzinibbio recent bouts if he is able to sharpen the dagger the Argentinian has the ability to get the W.

I think Izzy needs to take a chance to win with Pereira

This card looks really fun on paper. I hope that it delivers as in recent memory the UFC has been banking on the mian event and comain too often this has interesting match ups and entertainment all over. 

I disagree. Kelvin brings activity out of everyone. Fights in the pocket so often that it's hard to ignore it. I think Curtis beats him in a slow round and then drops him and in doing so wins that round as well. Kelvin has been out a longggg time and he does not treat his body with care at all. The smart bet would be neither moneyline, I am edging Curtis though. Bet it doesn't go the distance or to start round 3

It does go distance*

You are right about all these points. Gastelum is the much better fighter and we also shouldn't forget that even Buckley was beating Curtis until he got caught. Gastelum is not getting KOd.

Also good to remember that Henry Cejudo will be preparing Gastelum for this fight.

I think Gastelum wins 70% of the time here

You are wrong. This goes the distance. 

Oh sorry. Yes you are right. It does go the distance, but Kelvin is winning this if he makes weight.

* Edited at 03.27.2023, 4:53 AM ET *

The 2 fights I cannot pick on this are Holland- Ponzinibbio and Adesanya- Pereira. 

I have no idea who wins these though I am leaning Adesanya and Holland. 

The rest of the fights are fairly easy to predict. 

What are yalls thoughts on Barnett vs Sherman? Crazy to see a guy who's 2-8 in his last 10 ufc fights as a big -270 favorite.. Shernan lost to Collier (lol) who Barnett knocked out, so MMA math would favor Barnett, not that it ever works out like that.. Looking for a reason as to why I shouldn't play Barnett ML at +200

Not the worst dog shot. But I think Sherman wins

I feel pretty good about holland. It’s hard to be confident because he pulls stunts and does dumb things to entertain the crowd, but I think he’s just better than ponzi. Pinzi’s style is predicated on getting hit to take a hit, and against a very long and fast striker I think he’s gonna have a lot of trouble. 

I worry about leg kicks