UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

No clue *** that guy is thinking.  Todorovic does not move his head at all. Has been finished twice before lol

Edwards vs. Usman III
Leon Edwards, SUB, R4
ALRIGHT ALRIGHT?! HEAR ME OUT. What a fight this is. Leon was doubted and pulled it off I thought Usman was maybe going to get the decision. He took him down had an attempt with the rnc in the first round and the second round was kinda competitive. Usman can't cheat like that, it was worse than Leon. No fake nutshots, grabs (glove/fence) or fake eyepokes. Time outs can be cruical.Someone can get knocked out or it could be boring or a lil bit uneventful like the first one as it can happen in trilogies with lay and prays. Usman lost sponsors which sucks, his big streak to tie Anderson Silva's and the belt after his defences is gone. Arguably though the second greatest WW champ behind the one and only Rush GSP. I'm not sure what happens here. It could go to a decsion either way split or unaminous or majority. Faints and distance are key here. Being present in the moment and finding the shots has or should be there. Both men seem confident and changed or ready with their teams and the stakes. Usman is coming off a hand injury and it is important to know that he has awful knees. He also got knocked out bad with the hail mary headkick ko at 35. Headshot dead! Leon has the home crowd rooting for him. Yet, the pressure is there regardless. Their family and friends will be watching perhaps as will the crowd and fans all around the world live on ppv in England. It's also important to note that this isn't on altitude like it was for 278 in Salt Lake City Utah which affected fighters other than Usman who is used to it. And he was doing good with strikes and takedowns. But you never know for all I know there can be a surprise ko or sub like in the Jiri Texiera fight. I'm probably wrong so we will see. Though I think they both have good cardio. Best of luck. Leon round four rnc late in the fourth.

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, TKO, R3
I love this fight more than the main maybe. Odds are good to play with and pick responsibly. Could be legendary. I see a tko in the end of round three and not going the distance. I have been wanting this fight for the past eight months or so. Glad it's happening. Gaethje has a chance with his power and experience like Fizzy does. Though I believe the leg kicks from Fizz especially will be too much alongside body shots and insane spinning kicks such as wheel kicks roudhouses you name it. The hooks are there as well and the 1 2s. Muay Thai/Kickboxer versus the brawler who is a wrestler but doesn't use the grappling enough. Not sure how the chins play out, plus the damage is there for Gaethje. He sorta has to be like who he was in the Tony fight. Though the situation was different with weight cuts and he still got hit and dropped. Fight iq is crucial here. Both have the finishes and highlight reels. Fizzy is younger and can possibly get a title shot depending what happens with Oliviera or Benny, maybe he will get it. I'm taking Fizzy by tko round three as the stoppage based on liver shots and teep kicks with the hook combos. Someone is going out, knocked out or put to sleep in a war. Plus Fizzy has great takedown defence and maybe slightly better grappling.

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R2
Gunni Gunnar Nelson is back. While he is on/off this might be a better and more exciting fight than originally planned with Daniel Rodriguez. Bryan a tough guy however he is taking this on short notice with the risk of getting finished again such as with RDA. Round two face crank rear naked choke Gunnar Nelson.

Maia vs. O'Neill
Jennifer Maia, DEC
Maia being underestimated here as an example. Good that the ranked fight was made for the main card and moved higher up. Casey alright but hasn't impressed me much compared to what I thought before. Last fight was a split and she doesn't have the best striking or fundamentals imo. Also is coming off a long layoff with the injury of the acl a year ago. Maia a vetran and harder to finish this might be one of the times where it prevails. Good odds. I'm taking and going with her 29-28 split.

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
Tough tough fight. I'm 0-3 with picking Dolidze. 1-0 with Vettori tapology wise at least. However Marvin Vettori is tough with his iron body and chin and is younger. Dolidze has a chance to make it big and get a title shot with the streak and finishes three ko wins in a row. If Vettori shows good fight iq he can outstruck him a bit better and do good with the grappling and takedowns. Vettori 29-28.

Shore vs. Amirkhani
Jack Shore, TKO, R3
Good fight, Shore can finish him good with strikes or a submission. Based on the pace if going good. Mr. Finland a vetran and both are coming off a loss. Shore by a late tko round three by the fence.

Duncan vs. Morales
Chris Duncan, TKO, R1
Good matchup. Duncan may have a suspect chin based on his last fight. Got dropped like five times. However he has good momentum to go far in the lw division which is detailed and stacked. Def got the power and will. The gap kinda showing based on who is doing good so far. Duncan by KO round one late.

Patterson vs. Ashmoz
Sam Patterson, SUB, R2
Good matchup. Both on good streaks and have faced fair good opponets at the start till now. Sam Patterson by guilotine round two perhaps.

Mokaev vs. Filho
Muhammad Mokaev, DEC
Muhammad Mokaev has the potential as does Jafel Filho. Although Tatsiro has impressed me more personally with his work with the pressure and finishes. I would like to see that fight someday as they are neck and neck and young same age and undefeated.I don't think he should be that big of a favourite. Instead of -800 it should be a -300 something around that. He is coming off a sudden shoulder dislocation. Seems to have recovered fine tho so we will see. Wants to make money and be active. Hopefully is not distracted with being a young champ. Filho may be unranked but can maybe get an upset and be in the rankings. I'm not sure if Mo wil get a finish or submission. 29-28 for Mo.

Murphy vs. Santos
Lerone Murphy, DEC
Both undefeated. This will also be intriguing or interesting. Regardless of height/reach may the best man win. I see a split instead of a unaminous decision. 30-27, 29-28 and 29-28 in favour of Murphy.

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R2
I do want the Serbian to win. Duncan however, can tag him good with head shots body shots as well as knees. Got the grappling too. Duncan by a flying knee, elbows or knees round two after a battle. Round 2.

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, SUB, R3
My fellow Canadian has missed weight so there is kinda an advantage. Other than that, Hadley got a gap with skill I beleive. Triangle choke round three.

Wood vs. Carolina
Joanne Wood, DEC
Carolina also has a chance, however Wood has fought good opponents especially. She has a chance to win a decsion. 29-28 UD.

Herbert vs. Klein
Ľudovít Klein, TKO, R3
Jai Herbert got a good chance however I will go with the Slovak here. Different gap. Tko round two/three.

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, SUB, R1
Veronica has a chance. However she has been out here and there. Killer Miller got alright striking and good grappling. Miller by RNC R1.

Just saw jack shores weigh in and faceoff. People are blowing his shape wayyyyyy out of proportion. He looked fine

Edwards vs. Usman III
Kamaru Usman, DEC
would love to be wrong here, but i gotta go with kamaru to win rounds without getting caught this time.

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, TKO, R2
feeling like fiziev will be able to counter justin's big commitments.

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R2
certainly looks setup to favor gunnar and i think his underrated striking will keep him afloat until a scramble breaks out.

Maia vs. O'Neill
Casey O'Neill, DEC
i think we're gonna see some of maia's underrated striking because she might be able to prevent casey from taking her down. still think that oneil is capable of outpacing her if she's back to form.

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
i think marvin's grinding ability can get roman tired.

Shore vs. Amirkhani
Jack Shore, DEC
makwan will try some fun stuff but ultimately get stuck on bottom for doing so. i'll say he's savvy enough to survive though and not get too roughed up.

Duncan vs. Morales
Chris Duncan, TKO, R1
i'll go with the hype and say morales can't get enough early respect to keep duncan from unloading.

Patterson vs. Ashmoz
Sam Patterson, TKO, R2
gonna side with the guy with more experienced opponents on top of a big size difference.

Mokaev vs. Filho
Muhammad Mokaev, DEC
i feel like filho is being underrated here, but i'm not confident enough about that to say he wins, but i will say he sees scorecards.

Murphy vs. Santos
Gabriel Santos, DEC
i'll take my chance here and say santos can get some early respect with power shots and be the one pushing forward.

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R2
guess i just don't trust dusko's tank and then his chin?

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, SUB, R2
wanted to say gordon is able to survive under hadley, but he seems to get broken in his losses so i'll say jake finds a rnc.

Wood vs. Carolina
Joanne Wood, DEC
jojo is kinda seeming one-foot-out-the-door at this point, but luana figures to oblige her in the striking so she'll have the chance to get her combos going if she can track luana down.

Herbert vs. Klein
Ľudovít Klein, DEC
not sure herbert will apply enough pressure to stop klein from piecing together some combos.

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, TKO, R2
i don't think hardy will be able to keep enough distance to exploit juju's awkward striking.

Compare how he looks to Murphy, tell me that isn't night and day. I know everyone has different genetics but he's not ******* samoan and it's a light weight. I just feel that he went up a weight class where he needn't have. If you have a few lbs of fat to spare just get rid of that and stay in the lighter weight.

I also happen to think he's good enough to win against anyone that isn't a ranked fighter and to win against several fighters that are ranked even at featherweight. I was just struck by the insane difference in physique between him and Murphy because they weighed in one right before the other and are in the same weight class now.
If you watch the ceremonials where he's had some nutrition it was even more pronounced.

* Edited at 03.18.2023, 1:03 AM ET *

Why is a lot of people worried about jack shore moving up to 145 he has been planning to do this for 12-18 months 

I personally am not worried at all about him moving up.

I like it because I am guessing that he is going to be the favourite going into lots of fights. Gives me great opportunities to fade him for profit

Edwards vs. Usman III
Leon Edwards, TKO, R3
A more one-sided fight in favor of Leon in it's totality. Kamaru has success but it feels like he's bothered. Leon stand up is much more efficient and fast this time around, but he mixes in his wrestling and clinch work first to set the tone. Usman tries to replicate in 2, same kind of round. In 3 I think Leon's sneaky power adds up, and a simple pop jab stings Usman backing him up. Leon smells blood, throws the bag of tools at him, but the straight punches find home and more often than other strikes. Usman drops to a knee and the ref steps in after another moment. And Still.

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Justin Gaethje, DEC
I think Gaethje is going through somewhat of a fight style redesign. He will start early, using leg kicks to set the distance and to avoid body shots. He avoids clinching and goes for a takedown as soon as he gets kicked. The fights gameplan turns sour for Fiziev and its more of positional, defensive, frustrating fight. 30-27x3 Uni for Gaethje.

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, TKO, R3
A wild slugfest in the middle of the third has Barb back to fence, He's getting pieced up and trying to land haymakers in retaliation, a huge miss from him and a bomb from Gunnar lands. KOs Barb.

Maia vs. O'Neill
Jennifer Maia, DEC
30-27x2, 29-28 Uni, I think Casey is on her heels for most of the fight and ends up on the losing end because of it.

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
30-27x2,29-28. Roman will have successful moments but they never last long enough to win a round with a statement.

Shore vs. Amirkhani
Jack Shore, DEC
30-27x2 30-26, Domination but not the most fun fight.

Duncan vs. Morales
Chris Duncan, TKO, R1
Omar is a gamer, But I think this is a slugfest and gameplan goes out the window...Omar gets caught early. TKO.

Patterson vs. Ashmoz
Sam Patterson, TKO, R2
Overwhelming accuracy, and variety of strikes, leads to a defenseless TKO, ref steps in while Yanal still on his feet.

Mokaev vs. Filho
Muhammad Mokaev, SUB, R1
Late Round Arm Triangle Choke.

Murphy vs. Santos
Gabriel Santos, DEC
I'm leaning an upset, I think both fighters look fantastic but a surprising decision, 29-28x3 Uni.

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R1
I'm going to say a highlight reel KO, Spinning back head kick.

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, SUB, R1
Arm Triangle Choke. Quick work.

Wood vs. Carolina
Joanne Wood, DEC
Another Grueling one, I think this is gonna be some legit fireworks, I gotta go with Wood here in a split. 30-27,29-28,28-29.

Herbert vs. Klein
Jai Herbert, DEC
Gonna be a good fight, I think Klein succeeds early but Jai ends up clinching, and grinds this fights out to a semi-contro split decision 29-28x2 28-29.

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, SUB, R1
Rear Naked Choke, I think J. Miller takes this spot a bit more seriously, even when including the history of Hardy.

Could be, you never know what he will look at 145 could be a complete different fighter, we will see 

Edwards vs. Usman III
Kamaru Usman, DEC
goat regains his throne

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, TKO, R2
move out the way justin, you're too old. fiziev vs arman next

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R1
can't trust gunnar enough to put him in my parlays even against a can like barbarena. in theory, he should easily get the submission here

Maia vs. O'Neill
Casey O'Neill, DEC
can vs can. fade o'neill in her next fight if you want to make some serious money

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
dolizde got outstruck by giles, lol. vettori all day long

Shore vs. Amirkhani
Jack Shore, SUB, R2
back to eating apples makwan, shore is THAT guy at 145

Duncan vs. Morales
Omar Morales, DEC
young can vs old can

Patterson vs. Ashmoz
Sam Patterson, SUB, R2
patterson moves like a tall person but his bjj is simply too good and should be the deciding factor here. most likely fading patterson in his next fight, non existent striking defense

Mokaev vs. Filho
Muhammad Mokaev, DEC
most halal fighter on the roster, 30-27 across the board

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R1
todorovic get out the way bum, we've got a new contender on our hands.

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, TKO, R2
jreynolds' favorite fighter, hadley with the dub

Wood vs. Carolina
Joanne Wood, DEC
old can vs young can

Herbert vs. Klein
Ľudovít Klein, TKO, R2
where are you going herbert? you forgot your chin

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, TKO, R1
veronica hardy non existent hands, non existent takedown defense, non existent cardio, outmatched in the grappling. miller all the way. only chance veronica has in this matchup is landing some crazy lucky high kick or spinning back kick

* Edited at 03.18.2023, 3:47 AM ET *

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I don't have a single dog. That has got to be a first. Predictably given this fact, I have very little action on this card. I guess I'm all in on Dana White fellating the british market.

* Edited at 03.18.2023, 4:13 AM ET *

After watching tape I have made a couple of changes

1. Patterson Submission
I will be fading Patterson very soon, but this is not the spot. Unfortunately Ashmoz does not seem to be that guy and he will be unlikely to crack Pattersons chin.

2. Joan Calderwood
As bad as Joan looked last fight and knowing this could be her last fight before she retires I just feel the UFC are giving her a cupcake. Watching back Carolina's tape was mind numbing. She is bad at everything and Joan should outstrike her and out grapple her, even for a possible finish

Just make sure you have a mental breakdown and go on unintelligible rants when a WMMA upset happens on this card and you should be good

Since I am now back to doing some MMA betting I thought I would start something new. I am going to put forward 5 of my best single bets each week, along with 2 underdog fliers and a parlay. I will try to make them of at least a decent value.

After coming back I have been listening to some cappers who do this professionally and actually charge money and all I can say, hopefully without sounding too arrogant, is that I think I can do better than almost all of them.

So as a trial over the next 4 weeks I am going to do this and see how many of my bets hit each week. If any of you decide to tail me (at your own peril LOL!) let me know what you thought about my bets and picks. Be interesting to hear your thoughts.

One thing to explain - I do not bet seperate KO or submission props unless there is a very very clear reason to do so. When I was betting previously I had a few instances where I picked the winner and the obvious path to victory but the person won in the opposite way. So frustrating and I have decided not to do that any more and just play the Inside the Distance props instead. Best recent example was Jack Della Madalena getting a submission over Brown rather than a KO I bet many people lost their parlays or bets because of that! Definitely not worth it in my opinion.

Lets go!

Best Bets  (In no particular order)
1. Christian Leroy Duncan Inside the distance
2. Gunnar Nelson Submission (One of the rare few occasions I am picking a submission)
3. Marvin Vettori Decision
4. Lerone Murphy
5. Mokaev/Filho over 1.5 rounds

Fliers (Leans that I think could hit!)
1. Leon Edwards Money Line
2. Jennifer Maia Money Line

Parlay 1
CL Duncan
Haldley
Gunner Nelson Submission
Vettori/Dolidze over 1.5 rounds
Usman/Edwards over 1.5 rounds
Lerone Murphy

Parlay 2
CL Duncun/Dusko Todorovic Fight does not go the distance
Marvin Vettori Decision
Fiziev/Gaethje over 1.5 rounds
Gunnar Nelson 
Ludovit Klien


Hope to do this weekly! Let me know if you like it

* Edited at 03.18.2023, 4:46 AM ET *

That is part of the joy of women's MMA. I am proceeding with extreme caution with any female fight lol!

Calling Mokaev a future champ, future goat etc. is a bit of an exaggeration, especially since he was almost submitted by Gordon 

another horrible take, he's ranked #12 at 22 years old 

at the very least, this guy will be champion in a division that's a little too thin in the 7-15 range in the rankings