James' prospect thread

Those of you who followed my work with MMAProspects and MyMMANews may have noticed that I haven't published anything for several months, and long story short when MyMMANews brought me on they didn't end up buying the MMAProspects domain or give me the resources to recreate my top 15 prospect rankings on their site. That meant that when the MMAProspects domain expired, my list was lost. 

However, I still spend an embarrassing amount of time every day on the tapology feed looking at results, which means that my prospect rankings stay very current and are always adding new members. My idea for this thread is for it to be a place where I'll post whenever I come across a new prospect, when a top amateur goes pro, or when I see a particularly noteworthy performance. If anyone else wants to come in here and show love to your favorite under-the-radar regional guys or see how my opinion on a prospect compares to yours, go for it!

I'll probably try to go back to publishing sometime next year, but for now grad school consumes too much time, so this will be my primary outlet for all the scouting I do.

* Edited at 11.11.2022, 1:28 PM ET *

My rankings for each weight class are comprehensive, meaning that you'll see everyone from the current UFC champ to some random 5-0 Russian who scored a highlight-reel KO. My grading system goes from .5 to 9.5 for fighters I would grade as prospects or strong regional gatekeepers, then from 10 to 100 in increments of 5 for fighters that I grade as international-level. It's not an exact science, and a fighter with a 100 grade is not going to be 10 times more talented than a fighter with a 10 grade, because as you reach the upper levels of MMA the gaps in skill that separate fighters get smaller and smaller.
A quick breakdown of my current rankings lists:

Heavyweights: 213 total fighters

Light Heavyweights: 200 total fighters

Middleweights: 305 total fighters

Welterweights: 445 total fighters

Lightweights: 493 total fighters

Featherweights: 465 total fighters

Bantamweights: 429 total fighters

Flyweights: 249 total fighters

Amateurs (all weights): 67 total fighters

Formerly ranked fighters (either removed for losses or retirement/death): 354 fighters and growing every day

A quick breakdown of the note-taking system and shorthand that I use in my rankings:

The most current grade is always the first thing on the fighters' notes, with the arrows coming from the right linking it to previous grades. If an arrow has more than 1 horizontal dash it means that the change in grade happened over more than 1 fight, for example 2<- - -1.5 would indicate that it took 3 fights for the fighter's grade to increase from 1.5 to 2. This is most common in regional fighters who are fighting weak competition, as crushing a can will often have no real effect on a prospect's grade.

After my initial description of a prospect, every subsequent note-taking session will be marked by 2ND, 3RD, 4TH, 5TH, etc, depending on how many times I've watched the fighter. These will always be capitalized, if its lowercase then I'm just using it because its faster to write 2nd than second. If you see somethings like "155->145" immediately after one of those new-session indicators, that shows that the fighter changed weight classes for that fight, in this example dropping from lightweight to featherweight. 

Some of my most common shorthand:
opp = opponent
incl = including
esp = especially
bec = because
comp = competition
meh = mediocre
int = international
lvl = level
rnd = round
dmg = damage
exp = experience
TD = takedown
TDD = takedown defense
TDA = takedown attempt
KD = knockdown
RNC = rear-naked choke
A-T = arm triangle
HE-gilly = high-elbow guillotine
BB = Black belt
Title+D = title and a defense
w/ = with
noob = fighter with 6 or fewer fights
Journeyman = fighter with 15+ fights and a near 50/50 record
Early 20s = 20-23
Mid 20s = 24-26
Late 20s = 27-29

* Edited at 11.11.2022, 1:36 PM ET *

First new prospect: Takeji Yokoyama

4-0 in the last 9 months, 3 different submissions including a toe-hold and he got an RNC vs a 3-0 guy then won the Fighting Nexus title earlier this week with his first decision win. His opponent was 16-7-2 and a pretty good fighter, so even though I haven't watched film on Yokoyama he goes onto the list at featherweight

In case anyone was still holding onto the idea of Alden Coria as a prospect, the guy who most recently beat him, Joseph Camacho, just got choked out in the first round by some 5-5 dude back in Guam. Plus the other guy who beat him, Michael Cyr, also lost his most recent fight, so seems like we're just left with no prospects from the whole situation

^scratch that, they updated the results and it was some other Joseph that got subbed, Camacho didn’t even fight

Ok so this guy's been on my lists for a while but since I'm living in Chile I wanted to give a shout out to the country's best prospect: Jose Ferreira

His record is the first thing that jumps out at 10-0, and while the Chilean regional scene is at best mediocre he's faced some of the best competition he could find and finished most of them. His anaconda is particularly nasty and he can snatch it up out of nowhere. He's a little short and small for a high-level lightweight so I think he'll likely drop to 145 at the highest level, which he's fought at in the past.

This has been a big year for him, as he got signed by Combate and got a huge step up in competition and attention. Unfortunately it's basically impossible to find footage of those fights, but a decision over Patrick Lehane (5-1), who was a prospect the promotion was trying to hype, and then a R2 KO of Genier Penagos (7-2) a couple weeks ago are both great results. With his record and tendency for finishes I bet we see him on DWCS next year.

Fun side note: His nickname is Tiro Loco, which literally translates into "crazy shot/shooter", but in Chilean slang means "crazy ****"

* Edited at 11.13.2022, 5:37 PM ET *

Ohhh, yes! This kid is a beast. Could definitely see him on dwcs soon. His most recent performance was impressive 

* Edited at 11.13.2022, 1:14 PM ET *

What is your opinion on Russian prospect Eduard Vartanyan?

Vartanyan is a monster, I wouldn't even call him a prospect because I rank him as the #40 lightweight in the world. He's always had the wrestling and submission threats but his striking has leveled up over the last few years, I was impressed by the composure and the timing of his counters vs Raisov in his last fight. He looked good pressing forward too, and he's now able to smoothly blend striking and grappling so he's really hard to predict. Great cardio/toughness, strong top pressure, opportunistic GnP and submissions but also happy to grit out decisions wins, there's a ton to like about him.

If I had to give a downside, it's probably his athleticism. He's not out of shape by any means but his natural explosiveness and raw strength are a notch below elite. He does have great flexibility though, which is super useful on the ground.

Any news on what happened in the whole Oleg Popov - Bellator - Italy cancellation?  Who had covid problems and any news on a re-schedule?

I hadn't heard anything until you mentioned it, but I just went digging and look what I found:
https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2022/11/7/23445411/former-ufc-fighter-arrested-in-bosnia-sting-operation

Looks like his opponent got busted in an organized crime roundup just before the fight was going to take place, so I'm guessing the "covid protocols" is just an easy excuse

Wow, that's wild.

I have nothing to base it on other than gut feeling, but I get the sense that Popov has no interest in leaving Europe.

Again, nothing more than a guess, but something tells me that such a strong prospect staying local has something to do with wanting to stay near home.

The Russian HW circuit seems to be really stacking up, actually.  They can, and have, put a lot of very solid records up against each other and are building quite a stable of strong-credentialled HWs.  Not like this situation in the UFC picture where seeing two decent HWs get in the octagon is becoming akin to seeing a unicorn.

I'm not so sure about that, to me the fact that Popov stayed on the regional scene and never signed to ACA despite being good enough shows that he was trying to move elsewhere. I also wouldn't be surprised if he couldn't get a US visa, so signing to Bellator and making his debut in Europe is kinda perfect

And yeah Russia has some great heavyweights: Shamil Gaziev, Popov, Alexandr Maslov, Alexander Soldatkin, Sergey Bilostenniy, Kirill Kornilov are all dangerous, but besides Gaziev and Kornilov they haven't really fought each other and some just keep beating up Brazilians with inflated records

Another prospect who's not new to my lists (I've been tracking him since he won IMMAF gold in 2019) but doesn't get much attention: Gadzhimurad Zavaev.

He's from Dagestan and has the wrestling to prove it, and while he's just 2-0 as a pro he went 17-2 as an ammy, won the Russian national championships in 2017 and 2019, the IMMAF Worlds at bantamweight in 2019 and IMMAF EUROs at featherweight in 2021. Even crazier is the competition he's beaten along the way:
Murad Magomedov(twice!), who's now 12-0 and was dominant for ACA
Sharapudin Magomedov, who went 20-1 as an ammy with Zavaev being his only defeat and is now a good prospect for EFC
Vyacheslav Svischev, who's now 10-2 and the bantamweight champ for Open FC
Renat Khavalov, now 6-0 and the long-reigning EFC champion and will probably end up in the UFC/Bellator
Dzhamaludin Aliev, now 7-0 pro and the champ for Serbian Battle Championship
Magomed Idrisov, now 7-0 pro with a bunch of finishes and an impressive decision win for Brave
Kurban Idrisov, who won the 2021 IMMAF Worlds at lightweight

Pretty insane to clear out basically all of Russia's top talents at 135/145 pounds but still wait so long to go pro, to the point that the guys he's beaten have gone on to become some of the country's top prospects. That does mean Zavaev is a little older for 2-0 at 28, but that's still his prime and he's showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

His pro debut was a total mauling of some nobody and he got the R1 KO with some nasty GnP elbows. This week he joined Naiza FC, which has a pretty good record of developing Russian prospects, and took on a 2-0 guy who also looked pretty promising. I liked that Zavaev didn't just lean on his wrestling, though he was able to take it to the ground whenever he wanted, and he's clearly been working on his kicks, though it did almost cost him because he got stunned briefly in round 2. He did enough for the decision and it was good to see him tested against a pretty good athlete, and if he can keep fighting frequently his ammy credentials make me think he'll be a major factor in Russian MMA within a year

rel="nofollow">Linkto his fight for Naiza. Always hard to predict whether Russian guys will get signed to UFC/PFL/Bellator because there's so many factors beyond just skill, but I think ACA or ONE could easily be in his near future

* Edited at 11.14.2022, 1:44 PM ET *

So I added this guy to my list last year but I just got to watch him for the second time against his best opponent, Kauã Fernandes is someone to keep an eye on. 

Trains out of Nova União, 6-0, really tall for a bantamweight, went 4-0 with 3 RNCs from 2015-2018, which means he made his pro debut as a teenager, then took 3+ years off. He first caught my attention last year with an impressive left hook KO of Daniel Melo (8-3), then he made his return to Shooto Brazil this week, meaning he got to show his stuff on fight pass.

His opponent was also 5-0 but wasn't on my lists because his competition was bad, and Fernandes too the center and started pushing the pace immediately. Neither guy showed great striking defence but Kaua was landing much cleaner and throwing longer combos, and he wobbled his opponent with a hard right the kept following up then ended things with another huge left hook. That's two straight R1 KOs with the same punch against his best opponents, I think one more win and he'd be ready for a shot at the Shooto belt, and if he can win that then DWCS would be a strong possibility next year (assuming he can fit two fights in before then)

* Edited at 11.14.2022, 4:43 PM ET *

Got a new heavyweight to watch, Stefan Vojcak. 5-0, 6'5 and 260+ pounds but still moves well and has defined muscle, all 5 wins in R1. 

His competition has varied from terrible to pretty good but regional heavyweights are never gonna fight the toughest challenges because those guys are all in major promotions already. He did beat a 13-8 guy in 30 seconds in his pro debut and most of his wins come from early takedowns, he has a fast and low shot for such a big guy, and then he either pounds on people for a KO or takes a submission. I've seen him quickly take the back and get the RNC immediately (though his opponent was a can) and also a fast keylock submission where he nearly took the dude's arm off at the shoulder.

This week he took out Ion Grigore (10-3), who's old but a good kickboxer and used to be a ranked prospect himself. I can't find footage of the fight but it went almost 4 minutes, which is Vojcak's longest, and he won by chest smother. That was a surprising submission to see from him because he doesn't have the saggy chest/manboobs that usually allow someone to pull off that technique, so if anyone can find a video please leave it here. Basically, there's a lot still unproven but any heavyweight who can go 5-0 with a mix of finishes and take out some solid vets is worth keeping tabs on.

Another prospect from this week's Shooto card, Inglesson de Lara. He's 6-0, which is the main reason he's getting ranked, I'll take anyone 6-0 or better and he's actually fought pretty good guys his last 2 fights. He won a split decision in his debut and then got 4 straight R1 KOs including Lucas Bento (6-0) last November, who was on my rankings at that time.

This week, de Lara made his Shooto debut vs Diego Domingos (5-1), who is a very tall featherweight and had some pretty good previous wins for the promotion. I wasn't blown away by anything I saw from de Lara, especially in the first round because he was way to willing to try to strike on the outside but wasn't able to deal with his opponent's range. He pushed the pace more with each round and started to show the power and aggression that had gotten him a KO streak, and he mostly seemed unbothered by the counters he ate. He mixed in body shots well and added more kicks as the fight progressed, so there's some striking tools to work with here. Ultimately, de Lara is mostly just a flier based on his record, he could easily lose his next fight and be out of the rankings just as quickly as he joined.