UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Gonzalez vs. Peek
Peek, KO
Undefeated fighter with 100% finish rate vs. guy who's lost both his UFC fights so far by stoppage. Not gonna overthink this or any of Peeks fights for that matter until he gives me a reason not too.

Fernandez vs. Jasudavicius
Fernandez, DEC
Full transperancy I've done very little research on this one. Fernandez coming in with back to back subs is convincing enough for me against Jasudavicius. I distinctly remember being very unimpressed with Jasudavicius in her last fight and her UFC win thus far isn't ageing well. Coin flip low level WMMA.

Leavitt vs. Martinez
Leavitt, SUB
I think anyone taking Martinez hoping for a knockout is truly brave. I don't see how anyone could have such confidence in somebody whos been so inactive. I do find it interesting DK has this as a pick-em fight ever so slightly favoring Martinez while every other book has Leavitt slightly favored. Leavitt might be unorthodox and kind of cringe but he's an above average fighter who should continue to serve as a great gate keeper in argueably the most stacked division in the promotion. Leavitts grappling being better than Martinez's will matter more than Martinez's striking being better than Leavitts. Leavitt has decent enough striking to avoid getting flash KO'd by a guy who probably wouldn't even be in the UFC if he fought Tucker Lutz on DWCS like he was scheduled to.

Osebourne vs. Johnson
Johnson, DEC
I like InnerG's chances at a finish even on short notice. I think Ode has enough skill to hang but there's a serious gap in the striking here for me. There's an even bigger gap in fight IQ. I think the odds on this one are only close because it's a short notice catchweight fight. I will give Ode the benefit of the doubt and say he hangs on but loses decidedly. There will be at least one 30-27 score-card for InnerG if this goes 15. Inner-G is an entire level above Ode right now in my opinion.

Solecki vs. Deaton III
Solecki, SUB
Deaton is scrappy but he's not a UFC caliber lightweight with how stacked this division is. Not much to say here because the odds speak for themselves. Solecki will have a huge skill advantage in the grappling/wrestling department ontop of a nice physical advantage in size. I will seriously question Solecki's overall ceiling if he can't get a finish here. The UFC has given him a perfect opponent to make a statement win with.

Aliev vs. Alves
Aliev, DEC
I think Aliev is the real deal. His grappling and the way he chains different MMA disciplines together is really impressive. He just needs to be active and keep taking fights like this. I think the grappling advantage for Aliev will definitely be enough for him to win. The reports of Alves having issues with his hands is definitely a turn off. I know Diakiese can really wrestle and Alves put him in his place but Aliev is an entire level above that already.

Grappling, fight IQ, and cardio do all favor Mallot. No contention there, I think you just said vehemently disagree with me after essentially agreeing with me.

Mallot can stand with Lainesse but it would make the fight a lot closer than the odds indicate. The odds are this way because Lainesse is only live under two conditions: it’s standing and in round 1.

Spann always does that and he was laughing at one of his teammates joking with him about it

Now that I've re-read your comment on top of you clarifying, "vehemently" was probably too strong. We're basically on the same page. I will just contend by saying Lainesse looked really good on the scales and while I obviously don't know the specifics of what he's been working on, I have to imagine he's aware by now how much of an issue his cardio is. I don't know that it's fair to say he's only dangerous in round 1 but I do think it's fair to say he's exponentially less dangerous in round 3, if it gets that far, until proven otherwise.

I also just think Mallot is so much crisper and faster on the feet that he could easily knock Lainesse out without having to rely on his other skills. Lainesse got out-brawled by Gabe Green, who while I personally think is under-rated just proves to me you've already been beaten at your own game at the UFC level. Mallot isn't going to brawl with Lainesse. But again, I think we're on the same page.

I'm actually super pumped for this fight specifically. I really hope this fight and the Peek/Gonzalez fight deliver and are as entertaining as most of us think they'll be. 

Idk man I'm frequently extremely baked myself. I am right now as a matter of fact. Those looked like stoner giggles to me. Or maybe I'm just too high already before noon.

 (it's all but certainly the latter)

Suarez ITD + Muniz by Sub + Spann ML = +1135

Run straight or dial back the methods for "safer" alternatives, best of luck to all the bettors today!

Full Picks & Predictions for today: https://oddsmokermma.com/2023/02/24/ufc-vegas-70-krylov-vs-spann-picks-predictions-best-bets/

Krylov vs. Spann
Krylov, SUB
Spann has great power because he's a massive LHW like Johnny Walker but skill for skill this isn't close for me.

Muniz vs. Allen
Muinz, SUB
Allen is technically a better kickboxer but the striking difference in this fight, if one exists at all, is negligent. Muniz is better than Allen at everything else. Allen will eventually foolishly entertain grappling with Muniz. GG.

Sakai vs. Mayes
Mayes, DEC
Skill for skill Sakai is without question the much better fighter, but 4 KO's in 23 months at heavyweight is life altering damage. I also find it hard to ignore Mayes has been training with Jon Jones and have to think surrounding yourself with someone of that caliber theoretically should help you improve as a fighter.

Suarez vs. De La Rosa
Suarez, SUB
Unless Suarez completey forgot how to fight she should win this fight no problem. Another 30-27 on at least two score-cards if it goes that far, but I see Suarez ending this one inside rounds 1-2 however she wants.

Malott vs. Lainesse
Malott, SUB
30-27 but very good chance for a finish. Lainesse is extremley tough but is essentially just an above average brawler. Malott is much more skilled. I think he pieces Lainesse up until he is forced to try and clinch, shoot or just change up the pace of the fight. Malott could just win by dropping hammers but I see him finding Lainesse's back at some point. 

Fernandes vs. Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius, DEC
Wrestling

If anyone is looking to add some more spice to their parlays, Jake Paul is fighting a can on Sunday and is only a small favorite (currently -155, was -180 and -170 over the past couple days). These are amazing odds for a fixed fight.

Yeah Solecki seems like an obvious pick but I just don't know a ton about his opponent. Suarez is facing someone I know quite well so that is the only reason I only mentioned her. 

Regarding my own picks/bets I'm mostly fine with them. Ode is the sketchy one since I actually think the matchup is quite in favor of InnerG and I'm mostly value betting there.

Perhaps I could've worded my point a little better, but I stand by it.

Whilst I agree that Malott's best chances are on the ground rather than the feet, I also agree with what Foppa said - I do think that should it stay standing, Malott is far faster, more accurate and technically sound than Yohan. Yohan has a power advantage, but I could see Malott landing first on the counter and putting him out. Think Condit vs Hardy.

Educate me why Krylov is not the Tapology favourite even though he has faced better competition in his recent fights.

Well, Krylov is the Tap favorite lol

But I will say this: his decision-making is really poor sometimes. And that puts him in jeopardy in nearly every fight. Recently though, it's been looking better, and he seems to be more mature as a fighter, but I can't be too sure with him.

I do think he should tear through Spann though. I don't see Spann as capable of taking clean shots on the chin from him, and I don't see him able to pressure and counter Krylov's awkward striking style. Barring a random guillotine off a takedown from Spann, I think Krylov takes this one fairly easily.

gliese58i  I have been going back and forth with some of my picks. This card has a couple of fights that could go either way and could potentially be parlay busters

GreenTeaEnthusiast  I agree. His fight against Craig is a perfect example of that. I also want to add that he's very hittable and always takes a bunch of damage in his fights. Which worries me a bit, although he seems to have a good chin. Oezdemir and Walker are both power punchers and both of them tagged him pretty good, but weren't able to finish him. So with that in mind; why would Spann? I don't consider Spann a better fighter than Oezdemir or Walker... yet.

* Edited at 02.25.2023, 12:58 PM ET *

https://www.tapology.com/ue/95023-3271603.png

How did you do this picture like this 

Allen will try to “prove” he can out grapple Muniz and lose, he’ll let Muniz takedown with the mindset of “oh yeah you wanna take me down, watch this” only for there to be nothing to watch besides him getting controlled and possibly subbed

Krylov vs. Spann
Nikita Krylov, SUB, R3
i feel like they're both incredibly dangerous in r1, but krylov is more dangerous afterwards and i'm not sure spann gets the jon done early so i'll say nikita takes advantage once spann tires from the early bursts.

Muniz vs. Allen
André Muniz, DEC
muniz might be outgunned if he can't force his way inside and find the back, but seeing malkoun get so many opportunities against allen makes me think muniz will get his share too.

Sakai vs. Mayes
Don'Tale Mayes, TKO, R2
to be fair, sakai's last four opponents would have ko'd mayes too, but what really sways me here is that sakai was taken down officially 6 times by spivac (understandable) while mayes took parisian down 6 times himself so i just think mayes figures to have more options in the fight. also may have more power and certainly less current mileage on his chin.

Suarez vs. De La Rosa
Tatiana Suarez, TKO, R1
montana will probably be too eager to engage in a clinch/scramble but competent enough to avoid getting choked so instead she'll just get gnp'd until the ref says enough.

Malott vs. Lainesse
Mike Malott, SUB, R2
not sure what kinda volume to expect from yohan after the weeks fight, might not be enough if malott can apply the pressure.

Gonzalez vs. Peek
Trevor Peek, TKO, R1
certainly looks like a setup, but maybe erick can use his range better than anticipated. but having gotten caught 2 fights in a row, i'll go with the setup option.

Fernandes vs. Jasudavicius
Gabriella Fernandes, SUB, R2
feeling like fernandes will get to decide where to take the fight and jas will be stuck adjusting.

Leavitt vs. Martinez
Victor Martinez, TKO, R2
gonna take a chance and say victor can avoid getting backpacked.

Osbourne vs. Johnson
Charles Johnson, TKO, R2
thinking charles will fight too clean to get caught in ode's explosive moments.

Solecki vs. Deaton III
Joe Solecki, DEC
assuming he can take it down, it's possible joe just outclasses deaton on the ground but i'll say he can survive.

Aliev vs. Alves
Nurullo Aliev, DEC
guess i'm expecting early explosion into a sub attempt from alves, but for aliev to survive and take over?