UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Basharat umar Rebecki is free money 

Very chalky card with a couple of lines that dont make a ton of sense. I think Charles Johnson beats Flick but I'm having a hard time buying all of this line movement being from large bets alone... I could be wrong but after the Krause situation, its enough of a line move to make me avoid this one altogether. 

When a card is chalky I like it. It reassures me that my bets are solid

* Edited at 01.04.2023, 9:14 PM ET *

Not really tho, I don’t want to be agreeing with the bookies or they’re no point in the bet, Anything can happen in MMA and I don’t want to pay -700 on a favourite 

I think betting chalk is just agreeing with the bookie that the favourite should kick ass

* Edited at 01.04.2023, 9:40 PM ET *

 Nassourdine Imavov  Javid Basharat  Umar Nurmagomedov  Allan Nascimento  Damon Jackson  Ketlen Vieira6 team parlay pays +968.  Imavov  Jackson  Vieira  Ribeiro4 team pays +1027. Still have some time to see props released but would love to start year with a solid win. 

It is hard to believe that Flick is going to win this after legitimately retiring. The dude probably took at least a year off and is going against another dude that is very active with very little damage other than his leg. Also, I feel like Fiore only got called up cause he trains with Font and Kattar, and dude only has like 1 real win in 6 fights. Argueta and Nascimento should win, but it wouldn't surprise me if either of them lose. I think Javid wins based on experience but wouldn't be surprised to see a rematch in a couple of years and is almost an Usman/Edwards part 1 feel to it. I think Kopylov is more technical on the feet, but I feel like Soriano is either going to wrestle his way to a decision or catch Kopylov on a counter. 100% fading Eubanks but both of those girls aren't very good. Finally, I am hesitantly picking Ribeiro over Alhassan cause Alhassan and Fortis are so unreliable. Everything I haven't mentioned is pretty straight forward tbh

Let's get drunk on those pics

And this is why the majority of people, in fact probably about 99% of people lose money betting.

And that includes all these so called "Betting experts" and "MMA Cappers" on Twitter and YouTube.

Chalky lines are a good thing. It means thr probabilities of winning is high. I often hear these so called cappers say things like.. my pick is X, but the line is too wide so I am betting Y instead. Nonsense. If you are sure someone is going to win you bet them regardless of the line. Similarly you bet an underdog because you think they will win, not because the line is good.

Again I hear so many people say they are betting someone because of the "line value" and "value bets", not because they think that person is more likely to win but because the line the bookies are giving you is good. And tell me, why is that line good? Who sets and controls the lines? 

Bananas, Andrew and myself have been trying to educate all of you on betting. There is just no argument. The 3 of us make more than all of you combined. Listen to the wisdom. Not the narratives the bookies put out and all the guillible fools swallow and talk about as if it's their own theory that they made themselves. This is why the house always wins, but loses to the Trio of Titans.

* Edited at 01.05.2023, 2:17 AM ET *

Probably "The Three Stooges" of "The Dumb The Dumber And The Dumbest" ... ! Stop ****posting and capitalize the threads, and leave some space for others, especially for new members... !

I am absolutely hammering umar x rebecki x basharat to kick start off the year if the majority of you  had a brain you would do the same it’s simply free money people

You are 100% right

The problem is bro that these guys are all following the narrative like sheep. They don't realise who sets the narrative. We both know it isn't the betting public, though they like to fool themselves into thinking it is.

We both know you cant get rich playing single bets. Even if you hit one underdog play you will lose the next and single bets on favourites don't pay out well if they are truly favourites and not just steamed lines by the foolish public.

This is why you, me and Bananas play parlays. And what do I always hear? Oh Vegas was built on broken parlays. Lol.

Not on our parlays it wasn't.