UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@baremaras the roasts are getting to him😭😭

Actually I agree, he was there as a punishment for talking **** on McGregor

Im putting my spring semester tuition on Brandon Moreno. Lets get this easy money

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
litework

I bet my liver on this event !

Burns vs. Magny
Neil Magny, DEC
I could see Magny forcing Burns into inactivity with his jab and winning on points, this is a bet I'd be laying heavy. 9" reach advantage and he knows how to use it

For sure I would be interested. There used to be a great resource whose name escapes me at the moment that showed a ton of info I can't find anywhere else since. At least not without doing a lot of digging for individual fights.
It had all kinds of fight metrics, days since last fight, how many days notice if on short notice. It listed leg length not just upper body wingspan and paired of fighters with shades of red and green colors to make it easy to see who had the statistical advantage in any one category at a glance.
Very useful stuff sadly gone.

I use ufcstats.com together with tapology and sherdog nowadays but that site had all the info I get from these and more.

* Edited at 01.20.2023, 2:50 PM ET *

Stamann looked very bothered by the crowd chanting you will die. He flipped them off and you could see him saying “******* *******” 

the difference in size between josi nunes and zarah fairn was actually ******* insane

i don't think fairn is nearly good enough to exploit it though, i think she gets caught by massive overhand left into a tko finish

* Edited at 01.20.2023, 3:15 PM ET *

Lol Craig and walker with an super intense face off

You could see Mick Maynard wince in pain when he slapped hands with Almeida.

I agree Nunes will probably piece her up. My bet is on Fairn.

The other bet I found on this card is Lazzez, I think the Bonfim brothers will 0-2.

So where is everyone who was saying Figgy was going to miss weight? He now has 24 hours to ingest every juice known to man. YSADA ain't anywhere near Brazil. Poor Moreno.

if everyone - including you - is in agreement that fairn will get pieced up, why is she your bet? i do get that the line is way too wide for nunes but there are other decent underdogs on this card in marcos, lacerda, glover and potentially ferreira as well. even shogun could potentially be a more interesting underdog option than fairn

* Edited at 01.20.2023, 3:49 PM ET *

Malecki is even taller than Fairn, didn't stop Nunes from winning by R1 KO.

in theory the size difference between malecki and nunes must have been bigger but visually I feel like fairn might be a tiny bit taller, not sure how accurate the 5'8 height listing is. if malecki is 5'9 then fairn also has to be 5'9 imo

That's a good question. The way I look at it I have confidence in my abilities to cap fights. But at the same time, this is one ******* crazy and volatile sport and we only have past information to go on, unless we're James Krause.
I don't know any details of their personal life, how training has been, if there's any injuries coming into this. There's also just the normal day to day variance of any athlete.
That doesn't mean I constantly bet fights where I find "value", there has to be a reasonable chance for the bets to come through. I wouldn't bet Abdurakhimov vs Almeida even if he was 15to1 for example.

With Nunes and Fairn I just think it's a low level WMMA fight and physicality does play a factor in these fights. As you said about the weigh ins, the size difference is just massive. I haven't seen Nunes wrestle which would be her easiest out if she had any competence in it. Maybe she does maybe she doesn't, I haven't seen her use it at least.
So it looks like a fight where they will trade shots. Nunes seem to have more aggression and power and is on homefield. That counts for a lot but Fairn has the size and 6 inches of reach. In this kind of spot I'm willing to bet a dog at +450 that I think have a realistic chance if she had the right training and preparation, even if I pick the favorite to win on tap (bc I'm challenging myself on tap to get a good pick rate and not just picking a fighter I like or that I have money on).

As for Shogun I might live bet him as I outlined earlier, I think that would be a better spot than betting him before the fight.

As for Lazzez v Bonfim I just don't get why Lazzez is such a big dog (got him at +155). I think he has excellent striking and is a kickboxer facing a boxer making his UFC debut. Bonfim looks good but hasn't proven to me to be a world beater, I'd have lined this closer to a pickem going in.