UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Completed my picks for this card. Not doing detailed breakdowns but I like what I have on here. This card is going to be an absolute banger!

1. Sandhagen Decision
This is a close fight for sure. But I think Corey is going to pull away at the end. I don't see a finish either way and this should be a banger. Ultimately I feel that Corey will be able to dictate the range and keep Song away, with better footwork. The Kyler Phillips fight is the closest fight I can point to. Song will need to crash forward and enter the pocket to be more in boxing range to score and I feel Corey will prevent that from happening too often. One concern is if Song wrestles or pushes Corey against the cage he will probably win those exchanges and maybe that round. But I feel that will tire him out and when it hits R3, 4 and 5 Corey will take over. The thing that stands out to me is that most of Songs clear wins are by KO, and when he goes to decision, even 3 rounds he is either in a very close win or a split loss. Over 5 rounds I think it becomes even more difficult.

2. Chidi KO
I have changed my mind after watching more tape. This really depends on Rodrigues's approach. If he gets it down to the ground early he could get an early submission. He definitely has the much higher level BJJ and wrestling even though Chidi is also a black belt. His takedowns and slams are very explosive and high energy. However Rodrigues's ground control is suprisingly not great and he does not seem to submit many people. I think even if he gets this down to the ground he may not be able to finish and is more likely to get tired if Chidi keeps getting up. Either way on the feet Chidi will be the much better and cleaner striking and will be at a significant speed advantage. We know Rodrigues is hittable and has been rocked many times. I am expecting a late finish as Rodrigues gets tired and gets cracked.

3. Algeo Decision
Another close fight. I know that Fili has a significant advantage with the wrestling but he does not really use this enough. And we know that Algeo really is good at getting up. In fact I feel that Fili is at risk of getting submitted on the ground but I doubt Algeo is in danger of getting finished there. On the feet they are somewhat equal but Algeo has high volume and nice foot work. Also was not impressed at how Fili got KOd by Britto last time. Really dissapointing performance. I wonder if Fili has reached his peak and could be on the down trend while Algeo certainly seems to be improving every time. I think this is likely to go to decision and Algeo will win this on striking volume. 

4. Pyfer TKO
Not going to spend time on this. Setup for Pyfer who is Dana's new favourte. R1 take down to TKO.

5. Hernandez Submission
Hernandez is faster, has better cardio, great wrestling and submissions and lots of volume with striking. MAB is decent but he is low volume and really wins by moving forward and pressuring people. His wrestling is not great and his striking does not have a lot of power. I think Fluffy will be the one pressuring him with his pace and volume and he will push him back against the cage and then start chaining takedowns. I expect MAB to gas out by the later rounds and then Fluffy to get a submission or TKO

Will do the prelim predictions soon.

You are a gem. I am guessing that you are not up for Feminist of the year award lol

Boser vs. Nascimento
Tanner Boser, TKO, R1
Boser is in great shape and being this light in weight will allow him to be faster and have better movement. For his part, Nascimiento is coming off a No Contest where he had originally managed to finish Baudot after going through a lot of trouble in the first round. Boser is much faster and has considerably better striking, in Nascimiento's words he always put a higher priority on his grappling over training striking and this led to his terrible loss against Daukaus where the light and fast handed Daukaus ended up taking him down 2 times and demolishing it in less than 2 minutes. Boser should be wary of takedown attempts, but personally the advantage in speed and striking should allow him a stunning KO in the first.

Jackson vs. Sabatini
Pat Sabatini, DEC
Sabatini is a very solid wrestler, in addition to being an NCAA Division I Wrestler he has also had training in Combat Sambo. Jackson is a good grappler and in striking they are somewhat even, but I think Sabatini will dominate from stand-up control and also with his wrestling on the ground. Sabatini has to be careful in the scrambles, but I think Pat can dominate Jackson in the same way that Bektic did for most of the fight and with the notable difference of not getting tired in the last round. It will be an interesting fight if both decide to make the best of their arsenal on the ground.

Lookboonmee vs. Gomes
Loma Lookboonmee, DEC
Short notice debut for Gomes after winning the contract at DWCS, Loma has a great Muay Thai base and I doubt Gomes can beat her from striking and the Brazilian doesn't really have a ground game. I believe that Loma can take the fight from a clear decision and the change of rival will not affect him as much because Belbita was also a striking match-up

Ogden vs. Zellhuber
Daniel Zellhuber, TKO, R3
Odgen is good from top position on the ground, but if Daniel can defend the takedowns he can pretty much win the fight any way he wants. Many DWCS alumni have had disappointing debuts but the thing is that Odgen is often inactive and doesn't go out looking for a fight, I think this will be a fundamentally advantageous factor for Zellhuber (along with the huge reach advantage).

Gravely vs. Basharat
Javid Basharat, SUB, R2
Basharat brothers have a great future and Gravely is a good test for Javid: Tony has good hands and good wrestling, but Javid is very good at scrambles and knows how to use his striking very well. I reckon Javid will be able to finish the fight with a D'Arce Choke either when Gravely tries a loose takedown while he's tired or if Basharat manages to hurt him from the striking.

How is that not a detailed breakdown, that more words than most people do for breakdown on here, Good work brother 

Also, you should worry about getting fights wrong, everyone get fight wrong, it just the game, don’t get dishearten

The one who couldn't pick up an LFA event  !

Sandhagen vs. Song
Cory Sandhagen, TKO, R5
I think that Cory has the more versatile striking and if he fights long he should be able to win a competitive striking battle. I think that whatever Song brings from TAM and Cory brings from Team Elevation in terms of wrestling should at least be on par with each other, so I think we will probably see an all out striking war. Cory has to be sharp all fight, he cannot get lazy and let Song hit him clean with his power or let him get in the pocket. If Song is allowed to use his speed and power at will, he is going to **** Cory up - I can see a 2nd or 3rd round KO because of the power that dude has at this weight class. Cory's timing and footwork will have to shine.

Ogden vs. Zellhuber
Daniel Zellhuber, TKO, R2
Sorry man. I like Trey too. But I think he'll be lucky to make it past the second round. He's gotta work on his top game. Unless his gets a SHOCKING submission victory, I see a vicious KO in Treys future.

Lookboonmee vs. Gomes
Denise Gomes, TKO, R3
Loma no doubt is a tough first fight. And everyone is probably judging from what they seen from on contender series, but I think this Denise girl could be something special. And I'm willing to put some money on it (which I'm going to) that she's gonna surprise everyone in this one. She lost her first professional fight, and after that? She was a underdog for her next three fights. At least 70 % or more voting against her in each fight. What happened? She came out on top. If Loma can stretch it to the cards she probably takes it but she better HOPE she don't get caught slipping.

Missed the Boser/Nascimento fight on the main card so will put that here

1. Nascimento Submission
Never been a fan of Boser. I think he is over rated tbh, sure he is fast and mobile but thats because he is small and should be at 205. He does not have a lot of power and I feel his KOs are more accumilative damage. He is usually low volume as well and often does not do much except move in and out. Nascimento is huge compared to him and actually has pretty decent striking though he is hittable. I don't really see Boser KOing him unless he gassess out. Then if he gets a takedown or it hits the floor Boser is in real trouble. I could see an early submission or TKO. If it does go beyond 1.5 rounds my main worry is if Nascemento gets tired and Boser takes over. But I am willing to take a dog pick on Nascimento who I think has a clear path to victory and is not outmatched on the feet either.

2. Sabatini Submission 
Jackson has been looking good recently but I really do not like his gas tank, especially if fighting someone who has good wrestling. On the feet it's pretty even, perphaps even advantage to Jackson but Sabatini is a very very good wrestler. I don't think either will get a submission early on, as both have really nice BJJ but as Jackson gets more tired in R2/3 he will be open to getting subbed. 

3. Cosce KO 
I think Giles is the better fighter and I may be completely wrong about this one, but I just cannot trust Giles. I really do not like the way he fights, low volume, not using that jab of his which is really nice, good BJJ but gets stuck on his back and possibly chinny. We should not be too harsh on Cosce with his last performance, he punched himself out and almost got a finish, seen that happen many times to many better fighters, and he still managed to make it to the final round where he got KOd because he was so gassed. Giles also has pretty average cardio imo. I think he has a very good chance of catching Giles with something or even wrestling him to a win. Again Giles is the better fighter and should be the favourite, but I just think he finds ways to lose and Cosce will be coming for his head.

4. Lookbome Decision
Don't get me wrong, I was rather impressed by Gomes on the DWCS, but she was not fighting a striker of the level of Loma, and Lomas leg kicks and clinch game are nice. Gomes was not as big as I was expecting and I think Angela Hill was a more difficult test for Loma. Also heard that Loma has really improved her wrestling and I think by mixing it up she will win a decision.

5. Zellhuber KO
I think this guy is the real deal. And Ogden lost a striking match to Leavitt. Main thing is Zellhuber has to keep it standing. If he gets tripped down to the ground of if Ogden pulls gaurd he should abort abort abort. Ogden has very good BJJ so he sould not get tangled down on the ground. Careful betting this one though I think Zellhuber is a very good prospect and at a fantastic gym.

6. Robertson Submission
Agapova did not look good on the scales and we know cardio is an issue for her at the best of times. Gillian has apparantly been training her wrestling hard with her new gym and Din Thomas who as a coach knows Agapova very well. I expect a good gameplan, avoiding extended striking battles, trips and takedowns and then control positions on the ground until Agapova gasses with a late 2/3rd round finish.

7. Basharat Submission
I like Gravely, very very good wrestler. Decent boxing. But his gas tank is 1.5 rounds and he is tiny compared to Basharat who will keep it at range, defend the takedowns or stand up, not get TKOd and then take over when Gravely gasses. Late round finish imo.

8. VanCamp KO
Motta is decent, but small and does not have a lot of power. CVC is huge, and has power and wrestling. I was impressed with him against Fialho and he definitely should not be this kind of a dog. I expect him to either win a decision after losing round 1 after using his wrestling/cage fighting or get a KO. Motta getting KO'd by Miller in R2 was not a good look.

Thanks a lot brother. I had a bit of a downer after getting my worst results ever last card. But I really appreciate your kind words. This card should be great!

You say that she was voted/picked against in 3 fights after he loss, but who the hell are those girls that she beat and people picked against her?


The fact that she wasn't favored just shows you how little people believed in her (Gomes). Every opponent outside her contender series fight, has no credibility or reason to believe she's "good" because she won those fights...And even that one contender series fight...Who is Rayanne Amanda??

And now even more so, the books are getting $ on this girl (you admit you're donating to the books), giving Loma to me, even more credibility to win. Books satisfied with action on the wrong fighter and the fighter with a better strength of schedule and arguably better skillset overall being faded...

I'll admit, she does look like the woman version of Gilbert Burns, and also has that bigger, Brazilian build similar to Andrade, so she does worry me with the potential power she may have. There's just not enough proof against anyone credible to confirm that, and that's where I feel like you're banking on things we don't know...

Best of luck, but I feel like you're donating if you're betting Gomes.

Sandhagen vs. Song
Cory Sandhagen, DEC
Insane that song has so much experience being so young. However sandhagen at this poing feels more technical. 4-5 round tko or decision fof the sandman. Should be able to outpoint the young man

Njokuani vs. Rodrigues
Chidi Njokuani, TKO, R2
Do not see this going the distance. Chidi at this point seems the better fighter, but both of them have granite in their hands. Robocops zombie like marching forward doesnt make trust too much in my picj but i couldnt pick rodrigues for my life here.

Fili vs. Algeo
Bill Algeo, SUB, R2
Fili quit. Never gonna go for him. Man has to go on a p****r streak, and have some bangers to bring trust back. Algeo is relentless, even if not as talented he can get a finish here i think.

Amedovski vs. Pyfer
Joseph Pyfer, TKO, R1
Be joe pyfer!! Amedowski looks like lowkey cheap alvarez in this photo

Hernandez vs. Barriault
Anthony Hernandez, TKO, R2
Barriault getting finished again. G&p

Jackson vs. Sabatini
Pat Sabatini, DEC
We all know damon jackson has a path to victory at any point in the fight, great submisions, very light betting here. But sabatini is more technical. If he dont make too many mistakes,he should grind this out. Will go with pat here

Giles vs. Cosce
Louis Cosce, TKO, R2
Going with the underdog here. Not impressed by Giles, dont think he has much ceiling left.

Ogden vs. Zellhuber
Daniel Zellhuber, TKO, R1
Zellhuber is pretty damn good. Ogden is not. Should not be too difficult

Gravely vs. Basharat
Javid Basharat, TKO, R2
Maybe even round 3. But i think there should be a finish.

I don't talk **** and im not a troll-ey, it's just my opinion !

Example :

An expert who can't make picks on PFL or the Contender Series, makes almost a full page prediction comments... and some athers they give him credits... this is unbelievable... ! At least they should tell as where they copy from... ! L☻L !

Njokuani vs. Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues, SUB, R2
good match

@rustytennakoon I appreciate your breakdowns on each card I reference them a lot