UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Diaz vs. Ferguson
Tony Ferguson, DEC
geez what a shuffle!!!! Hoping for ferguson to get the win today. IM guessing a close decision where tony is just simply winning cutting up nate on his way out. I hope tony gets this then retires. I dont want anything bad for nate but I want this for tony more.

Walker vs. Cutelaba
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
Wow did walker look bigger and ion looked worried at the ceremonial weigh ins.

What a rollercoaster 24 hours huh? Wild. And my picks for this card are a little wild too. I think I have a good read in general but the last 24 hours has changed things. So taking the weigh ins, the live crowd and the larger cage into account perhaps more than usual. I think this card could turn out to be one of the best of the year and this main card is amazing. Even the WMMA fight is good.

1. Khamzat KO
No idea what happened with Khamzats weight cut. I do not believe the official narrative that he is injured. He just did not want to cut for whatever reason. A complete mystery to me. Despite this I think the change of opponent and the fact Holland asked for 5 rounds makes no difference. I am expecting Khamzat to take it down and finish it within a round or two. Can't see how Holland wins this short of a Hail Mary punch landing. Under 2.5

2. Ferguson KO
Love this matchup. Should have happened long ago. Both have great cardio. Both have excellent striking. Both have good grappling and both have great chins. I think the whole "Tony's chin is gone" is a false narrative. He got KO'd once. From a massive kick to the chin. Anyone would have gone down. But the one thing I do not like is that he is coming back so soon. Still Diaz does not have one punch KO power and Tony is as tough as nails. This fight should have everything, high volume striking, great scrambles and grappling, lots of drama. But ultimately I think the damage will pile up on Diaz who admitted to not even really training for this card. He was also due to fight a completetly different style of opponent. I think they will go to war but Tony will get more visible damage and I am actually expecting a cut stoppage in the later rounds. Over 2.5 should be a really good bet.

3. Li Decision
This fight really worries me. And I may get this pick very wrong. If it had been normal circumstance I would pick D-Rod. He is the more technical striker and is really under rated in my opinion. And he also has a wieght advantage this time as Li was preparing for a WW bout. And though Li beat Salikhov last fight I beleive that was because Salikhov started to slow down. But there are a few things that sway me against D-Rod this time. First he did not look good on the scales, in fact he almost looked drained of energy and out of shape. He may well be slower than Li because of the extra weight and we know that Li has more power anyway. Also D-Rod's initial fight with Holland was at a catch weight because of D-Rods request. Only thing I can think of is that he could not make weight due to some reason. Lastly he is coming off a really serious injury. He broke his hand twice. And that is not a good thing at all for a boxer. All things considered I am taking Li who looked really good on the scales. Hopefully he gets a new suit. 

4. Aldana Decision
I think both were on track to miss weight and therefore both agreed to a catchweight. Maybe I am wrong but I know this was initially supposed to be at 135. Surprisingly they sized up pretty well at face offs. I was expecting Chiasson to be much bigger. Her path to victory is to press Aldana against the cage and maybe even take her down. But I think Aldana is too good for that and on the feet her striking is really good.

5. Walker Decision
I know a lot of people are going to be on Cutelaba, mainly because they are fading Walkers chin and the fact he is at SBG Ireland. All valid points. But the thing for me is that Walker is much bigger and Cutelaba has about 1 round of cardio in him. That one round he will go all out and definitely he could catch Walker and put him out, but if he doesn't? Then I think it's advantage Walker. I also think Walker can brawl but also win a decision and his distance management is pretty good. Cutelaba throws mainly overhands and ground strikes which I feel Walker will be able to avoid. And though Cutelaba has really good wrestling I don't think he can keep it going for long, even though his cardio does look better. He also is not great at holding people down despite being good at getting them to the ground. Overall I actually like Walker and especially like the size difference.  


On to the prelims... 

You don’t miss weight by 8 pounds because of a bad weight cut. He almost definitely had cramps early on in the cut and just decided not to push. He looked totally healthy at weigh in and is probably already rehydrated. It’s ****** up and unprofessional and we can shake a fist at him, but if anything I’d bet Khamzat’s gas tank is even better than if he’d successfully made 170. 

Have a good one Ls and Gs !

Khamzat is gonna **** Holland up bad tomorrow night. 

* Edited at 09.09.2022, 11:15 PM ET *

I am so salty. Typed up almost a page of breakdowns for the prelims and when I hit submit my internet connection had dropped out so lost it all. I am not going to type all that again. Sorry guys.

So in a nutshell - my picks

1. Erosa Submission
Hakeem looked awful on the scales, as if he did not want to be there and he missed weight. He is more technical but Erosa will make this an ugly dirty brawl and though his chin is a worry Hakeem is not a power puncher.

2. Almeida Submission
I think the "Pleasure Man" is a total fraud. And Almeida is carved out of granite. Round 1 submission.

3. Tuiliulin Decision
I am going to pick the Russian who has fought Russians his whole life against Pickett who I do not think belongs in the UFC. Gas tank is a concern but I expect him to win at least 2 of 3.

4. Collier Submission
I really like Barnett and have a lot of sympathy for him for what he went through before his last fight where he looked horrible. But that's completely understandable. Wish him the very best. That said I did not like his pre-fight talk about how the UFC would not cut him even if he lost and all you really need to do is look at Colliers win-loss pattern to guess the outcome of this fight.

5. Wolf Decision
My advice - stay the hell away from this fight. I do not think Dumont is any good. And I do not think Wolf is any good either. But Wolf is huge and has a physique most men would want to have. Dumont likely needs to win with grappling and the size and strength difference is likely going to be significant. Wolf is back after a long long lay off, not sure why. Also not sure if the PEDs are gone yet. Dog or pass imo and I am passing. Horrible fight.

6. Alatang Decision
Anheliger looked awful on the scales and did not look like he wanted to be there. I trust in Fight Ready and Santino De Franco as a coach and I expect Alatang to wrestle this time. I really like this spot and the over 2.5

7. Reed Decision
Reed loses to grapplers. I think she will be the better striker with more volume and she is not making her debut. Expect her to win and the over 2.5 to hit.

8. Weeks KO
Yohan has one win condition. Round 1 KO before he gasses. Weeks is durable and I expect him to avoid that and then take over for a wrestling and striking clinic to get a late finish. This is the first fight on the card for a reason.

* Edited at 09.10.2022, 2:35 AM ET *

I know you did NOT just talk **** about Swedish wrestling and praise English wrestling!

Here's the olympic record for all of Great Britain:

https://www.olympiandatabase.com/index.php?id=145309&L=1


And here's Sweden:

https://www.olympiandatabase.com/index.php?id=149104&L=1


Note how GBR has ONE medal since 1952. Also take into account GBR has a population 6-7 times that of Sweden.

Diaz vs. Ferguson
Tony Ferguson, TKO, R3
Doctor stoppage in this fight is a foregone conclusion I feel. It'll be a hell of a fight for a while until Tony's elbows finally open a huge cut that will just force the doctor to stop the fight. I'm also pretty confident Tony won't be hurt by Nate at all, his chin is most likely still solid, and Nate has never been known as a big puncher. Another factor is how Nate has alluded to not training especially hard, and had an entirely different opponent in first place. We could see Nate with worse cardio than in his previous fights which would pretty much diminish his entire fighting style

Chimaev vs. Holland
Khamzat Chimaev, TKO, R1
Props to Holland for taking the fight but this fight is ending early. Holland has improved takedown defense but it's obviously not enough against one of the best grapplers in the sport. I see Holland coming out guns blazing, with Chimaev timing a double leg under one of Hollands signature massive step forward telegraphed right hands. I'm going KO since Holland has decent bjj, but either sub or ko would be a good pick.

Li vs. Rodriguez
Jingliang Li, DEC
I think people are really overrating Drod. Yes he's looked good in the fights he's had, although it's been against much worse competition than who the Leech has beaten. Add the fact that he's coming off a long layoff with two hand surgeries and it makes a bet on him seem to risky for me. Li will win due to power difference and more activity as of late. I would bet over 2.5 as I see a slim possibility in Li scoring a late KO.

Aldana vs. Chiasson
Irene Aldana, DEC
Aldana is just much more skilled, especially in the striking. Pray to god it's not another boring clinchfest

Walker vs. Cutelaba
Johnny Walker, DEC
If this gets out of the first round I see Walker winning. Ion has terrible cardio, and pretty poor technical striking, he relies too much on his explosiveness. I think we finally see in this fight the point fighting extraordinaire that SBG has likely turned Johnny into get a dub. Wouldn't bet KO though, Walker seems to afraid to enter the pocket anymore.

Dawodu vs. Erosa
Hakeem Dawodu, TKO, R1
Hakeem is overdue for a KO I feel, and Erosa's chin isn't anywhere near the level some people have been saying it is. Hakeems technical striking will overwhelm Erosa, more particularly his body-head combos, which is what I think will be the KO shot.

Almeida vs. Turkalj
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Not even going to bother with this one lol.

Pickett vs. Tiuliulin
Denis Tiuliulin, DEC
Tiuliulin impressed me in his last fight, I thought he would be demolished but he held his own for a good while. He has solid boxing with a great chin, and pretty decent takedown defense. I've also heard he's training at a new gym and has been really improving a lot. Pickett isn't that good, just an athletic body with no brain inside of it. Nice comfortable, boxing heavy win for Denis here.

Collier vs. Barnett
Jake Collier, TKO, R2
Collier has decent speed and cardio for 265, not much else to say. Chris has no Cardio, and I don't see him landing another spinning kick sadly. Collier will KO him in the second after a rough first round of Chris getting repeatedly tagged on the feet.

Dumont vs. Wolf
Norma Dumont, SUB, R2
???

Anheliger vs. Alateng
Heili Alateng, DEC
50/50 fight in my book. I'm going Alateng since he has more inherent athleticism, and has shown improvement since switching to fight ready. Chad's power could be problem though. Would absolutely not bet on this fight or include it in your paylay.

Reed vs. Martinez
Melissa Martinez, DEC
Elise just is not good, and from what I've seen Martinez looks to have some potential. I'm banking on her improving in her long layoff.

Weeks vs. Lainesse
Darian Weeks, DEC
I see Darian using his wrestling early in this one, and grinding Yohan for the rest of the fight. There is a damn good chance Yohan starches him early though.

Diaz vs. Ferguson
Nate Diaz, TKO, R4
WAR!!

Diaz vs. Ferguson
Nate Diaz
I am happy for both Tony and Nate man. They deserve the main event money. Whoever wins, I will be happy for him and the other guy will still be my favorite. For some reasons, I am going with Nate.

Chimaev vs. Holland
Khamzat Chimaev
Kevin Holland is not prepared for Khamzat. So, Khamzat will win

I don’t know…if Edwards couldn’t get the fight stopped on cuts, I don’t see Ferguson doing it. 

Li vs. Rodriguez
Jingliang Li, DEC
new fight....li looks real cut

Dawodu vs. Erosa
Hakeem Dawodu, TKO, R2
hakeem missed weight.....should still get the tko

Sorry guys, watched some more tape and changing my pick.

I think Martinez is faster than Reed. There's also more of a grappling upside I think, Martinez seems to have very good hips and judo. 

Holland and D-Rod are worth gold! They often do shortnotice fights and always bring excitement into the octagon. Love them both! (Holland still has no chance against Chimaev though)

Diaz vs. Ferguson
Nate Diaz, TKO, R4
Diaz with the slicker boxing overwhelmes Tony in the later rounds. Would like to see them grapple a bit though

Chimaev vs. Holland
Khamzat Chimaev, TKO, R2
If smesh bro uses the wrasslin this could get ugly, stand up affair even steven or advantage Holland. I think Borz via dagi handcuff and donkey kong

Li vs. Rodriguez
Daniel Rodriguez, DEC
I think D-Rod is the more technical boxer here and that will make the difference. Li packs a punch though.

Diaz vs. Ferguson
Nate Diaz, DEC
This is a good fight to hang up the gloves for both legends. I think if Nate does not get cut by elbow, he wins a desicion. I don't see how Tony deal with "one - two" of Nate. I don't see a finish, Tony's only chance to finish is Nate's cut and doctor stoppage. Nate willl not finish Tony in later rounds if he smells the "Leon 5th round", because he does not give a f@ck. Nate is a good guy inside, I hope he wins 48-47

Chimaev vs. Holland
Khamzat Chimaev, SUB, R2
The dumbiest fighter alive will take Holland down and choke him out.

While I don't think Kevin winning is the most likely outcome he does have a path to victory if he can avoid getting subbed in the first 3.
I expect Khamzat will play to his strength and go to the wrestling early and often. Knowing this is Kevin's weakness he will have no fear chasing the ground finish like he feared Gilbert. But this confidence will undo him as he does not have 5 round endurance. He will be fading by the 3rd if he hasn't found a way to get Kevin out and Kevin putting it on him for the next 2 rounds isn't out of the question.

kevin holland will start the fight with either a jab or a calf kick

What the ****ity ****?!  Some homies were scared.