UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

What the **** it's 95 in Sweden is that a record seems very high, like **** that was just making England melt!
It is high average here 73-78F hot for us but not crazy or record setting.

Not a record and that's indoors temperature because I live in a shoebox that has sun blasting through the window all day and no ventilation. Swedish homes generally aren't built to vent heat.

It was 37 outdoors in Skellefteå a couple of weeks back though (98.6F) which is in the middle of Sweden (actually more toward north end), might've been a record that far north.

* Edited at 08.04.2022, 3:50 PM ET *

Oleksiejczuk vs. Alvey
Sam Alvey, TKO, R2
hoping for alvey!

Wow according to interwebs its gotten 100 above and 80 below in Alaska not seen either 88+ and 69- ambient craziest I've seen. 
But really we are in a desert in AK, 78 and humid nearly killed me in Washington state back in my teens I passed out from heat exhaustion lol.

@Joshjeffords I don't recommend coming down to Louisiana if you thought that was bad lol 

Here's my favorite temperature story. I worked as a detassler from 12-16 y/o every summer. My second year doing it we had a kid get sent to the ER for hypothermia in the morning, and then later that same day another kid got taken to the hospital for heat stroke.

Ain't no weather as volatile as the only triple landlocked state in the US of A baby.

The one thing I don’t like about Luque, Belal was having lots of success on the feet, Vicente was winning the standup, but it was pretty 50-50, Should Neal have better standup then Muhamed 

I think a lot of Luques last performance had to do with the fact that he just chokes in big spots. He looked so off in that fight; he even had belal hurt badly in the 3rd but either didn’t notice (very unlikely) or was too scared of the takedown that he didn’t go for it. He did the same against wonderboy in what was supposed to be the fight that propelled him to the top, and he got a striking clinic put on him. He also lost his ufc debut and lost to leon edwards when he was on a nice streak. I think he should return to form here; even if geoff neal is no joke of an opponent 

It’s probably because Luque felt he was in no danger in the stand up with Belal Muhammad. Luque has been in numerous tough fights. 

Neal has burned me before and I won't put any bets on him until he proves he can evolve his game. He's just so incredibly one track even though he does that thing quite well. I can't think of any fighter that is more of a headhunter than Neal. Almost no attacks to the legs or body of his opponent. He also can't cut the cage even if it's the small Apex one so he chased after Thompson in a circle for 25 minutes accomplishing nothing, making no adjustments. It doesn't help that I'm sceptical about Fortis as a top gym.

**Co-Main Event**
Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal
Luque, decision

Very similar stats but Luque lands a little more than Neal overall. Neal also just slightly gets hit more than he gives whereas it's the opposite for Luque. Luque is also just slightly more accurate.
I see all of this coalescing into a fight where they may trade back and forth for a round but Luque just pulls away mid 2nd or to start round 3. 

I personally don't think it was even a split but its still pretty telling Geoff Neal only narrowly beat Ponzi. I could pretty much see a very similar fight happening except Neal loses because Luque is going to land way more than 39% of his strikes. 

Luque is also obviously the much bigger threat if this fight ends up anywhere but on the feet. I think where trying to pick this fight gets tricky is in looking at their performances against common opponents. Neal beat Belal but Luque obviously fought a much better version of Belal over 5 rounds. Then there's Luque only beating Mike Perry by decision where as Neal starched him, etc. There's a lot of MMA math here that's probably not worth anyone's time. 

Since the start of 2020, Luque is 4-1 with four finishes and 1 loss in a close-ish 5 round fight to a top contender. Neal is 1-2 in the same time frame with no finishes, his lone win being a split against a fighter who was barely ranked at the time (and now isnt). When I consider all of this, it's Luque for me no question. While I think he can finish Neal, I think it's more likely Luque cruises to a UD where he lands more strikes overall and at a better percentage. 

**EDIT: listed Neals record incorrectly. He's 1-2 since 2020.

* Edited at 08.04.2022, 11:47 PM ET *

luque is still beast I think he's better than Neal in every single segment, who you got?

Luque, decision.

this is a low level card. even worse, they are so inconsistent that it's bad for betting too.

but here are america's pick of the week.

Vicente Luque v Geoff Neal

Vicente is a top 8 WW fighter, peaking top 5.  High level striking, but the differential here will be his grappling. Has defeated better fighters than Neal and is not struggling with alcohol. Neal barely defeated Santi Ponzi too, so, idk. It's even worse when you see his record and the names that he fought. This is a good fight for a fan-favorite comeback from a loss, just like the McKinney fight. WAR Silent Assassin.

Michał Oleksiejczuk v Sam Alvey

Sam Alvey in 2022.

Terrance McKinney v Erick Gonzalez

A good prospect coming from a short-notice fight against a good gatekeeper in GigaChad Dober. Huge mismatch here. T-wreck has some cardio issues, but will have enough to smoke Gonzalez.

Parlaying then at -110 is a good one. You could try to tape some other fighters, but will be sad to watch some Mohammed Usman or Brian Battle fights, so, i'm going with the safe ones. 

I had some thoughts on Hill and Sato, but i don't feel confident about them.

The "Family-friendly queen" is a bait, even Cachoeira being terrible, she is durable and stronger, even worse, it's WMMA.

Spivak -286 is a joke. Bueno and Egger are even fighters, and would not recognize the rest of the card if i saw them on the street

Not sure how Granger isn't favored over McKenna she is 4 inches taller with that massive 10 inch reach advantage

Definitely a good card this weekend

* Edited at 08.04.2022, 7:30 PM ET *

Granger just had a kid and hasn’t fought in almost 2 years and she is on a 2-fight losing streak. McKenna should of won her last fight tbh.