Stipe Miocic -- time to drop?

Is it time to let Stipe slide down the rankings?  It's been over 4 years since getting a win over someone currently relevant.

We all know the Cormier wins were good at the time.  Are they still enough to hold such a lofty spot on a rankings list dated April 2022?

What say you?  :)

* Edited at 04.25.2022, 7:39 PM ET *

Stipe does not fight often enough. 
Having Fortune on that top 10 does not make any sense to me. He has 2 loses and they both were in Bellator.  He has potential but is not top 10 yet.

I appreciate the response.

The system I set up is looking at a few things...

- Overall profile from the last 3 years as a whole.
- How successful is a fighter in terms of wins outnumbering losses?
- How successful are the fighter's opponents, and their opponents, and so on down the line? 
- Give more weight for "unique" wins... (beating people who don't usually lose)
- Be more forgiving for losses to successful opponents than to opponents who lose more often.
- No bias assessment of skill/talent/potential/promotion etc.  Just looking for winners who beat winners.

So in Fortune's case, I'm not concerned with what the name on the canvas says.  I just want to measure everyone's ability to get wins over people that are factually hard to beat lately.

Fortune is 6 wins, 1 split loss and 1 loss in the last 3 years, so well above .500
The split loss came to a successful Linton Vassel (4-0), so getting 1 judge to say he won is actually a positive and speaks to the closeness of that fight against a successful opponent.

The full loss to Tim Johnson is a bigger ding for sure, though Johnson has a win/some lose some record against pretty solid opponents himself.

In the HW division, 6 wins in the last 3 years is actually kind of rare to begin with, so credit to Fortune for being busy enough to carve out that many victories period.

Those 6 wins come over opponents that are otherwise 11-6 in the last few years, so his opponents definitely win more than they lose, which gives piling up those 6 wins credibility.


A quick side-by-side of this evaluation would be;

Fortune:  
6 wins over fighters who otherwise have a combined 11-6 record lately.
1 split loss to an otherwise 3-0 opponent, (which I have as a plus)
1 loss to an otherwise 3-3 opponent
(+16+16+28+16+4+8+22-7=103)


Miocic:
2 wins over the same opponent that has no other fights in the last 3 years
1 loss to an opponent who is otherwise 3-0 in the last few years.
(+3+3-1=5)

Those Miocic wins over Cormier would've been huge if this list was dated 2020, but it's not 2020 anymore and Daniel Cormier is currently the consensus #107 fighter because of time decay.  Now, Miocic doesn't have any wins in the last 3 years over someone with any wins in the last 3 years.


If we just turn the current consensus ranking around on itself, in the last 3 years, Miocic has zero wins against anyone in the top 100, while Fortune has 3 wins against the top 100.

Can you really talk about ranking when you have Francis Ngagnmu the champion at number 8

He knockout your number 7 in 20 second and had a close but clear win over your number 1, also knockout your number 2 in 70 second and beat him another time

Your ranking really seem like fighter your like more then on merit base, Francis should be number 1 or your ranking is invalid

* Edited at 04.29.2022, 3:54 AM ET *

@MMARanks
Shouldn't Vessel be in there then? I know you have a number system but to me, that does not seem to count the losses. His loss to Johnson should hurt him a lot.

Also, Oleg Popov?

NGannou also beat Rozenstruik who is higher than him. I know that was mentioned before but still, doesn't make sense to me either.

I am not sure if you follow Boxrec but they have a number ranking system.  Not sure how they do it but it seems to be pretty consistant.

Anyways, at least you have some kind of numbering system.  That deserves credit.

Appreciate the feedback.

I personally don't put any value on being the champion as the end all be all because being the UFC champion doesn't follow any formal sporting principles.  What I mean is, a person just randomly decides who fights for the title.  It is not a process that competitors must succeed through on an equal playing field.

The thought that a possibility of Stipe vs Jones could be the next title fight tells you that this is not a structured championship, but more of a promotional whim.

That said, I understand some people's stance that the belt holder must be number 1, but given the randomness a person can get a title shot and lack of structure, I don't use it.

Does the BMF belt count for anything, that's sadly about as random as the championship belt.

If Jon Jones became the interim HW champion after 1 fight in the HW division, I know some would vault him to the top, but I'm using an accumulation system that exists in essentially every legit sport... a collection of successes over a specific amount of time.

So if the Lakers were put into the NBA finals because they were popular and good for ratings, despite having comparatively much less success, I'd be one of the people questioning that sport's championship validity.

Hopefully that makes sense.  I respect those who feel the champ is tops no matter what, but for me...  UFC doesn't have the structure to legitimize their title as unquestioned.

I've chosen to go with a 3 year window, so that puts Francis at 4 wins.  The fact that he is on the same page as other fighters that have 6-10 wins in that same timeframe shows you that there is greater value on the people he's beat.

Again, I know many people have criteria that would automatically put the winner above the loser following a fight, bit I'm using the collective measure that all sports use... making each match part of a whole.

No other sport puts one competitor above another based on one single game/match.  So I'm going with that same methodology that works universally for every sport.

Again,  I appreciate the conversation.   I enjoy the exchange of ideas.

Peace.

That’s a great way of describing it! 

I factor popularity (the belt brings a lot of it) in my rankings because at the end of the day this is an entertainment more than a sport for the reasons you stated. 

But the thing is at the end of the day, Francis is the best heavyweight at the moment, And they has to be some form of number 1 will kick number 2 ass, Number 2 will kick number 3 ass, Rankings should't be promotional whims or Who you like more, You have a guy who coming off a split decsion lost at 3 , But the undisputed UFC champion who coming off a clear win of the number 1 guy on you ranking, 

Your ranking just don't make any sense, I don't care how you justify it, Not putting Francis at least in the top 3, (he should be number 1 to be right), Francis is clearly the best fighter in the division at the moment until Gane level up, Or Tom Aspinal reachs the top

And honestly I don't get why Francis get so much disrespect, 

* Edited at 04.29.2022, 4:59 PM ET *

If anything, these rankings are showing Francis respect because These rankings are about performance. Granted there are issues that can arise from the criteria of this ranking system, the fact that Francis is top 10 is impressive. He is not as active as the others on the list, which means when he only fights good opponents and beats them. 

* Edited at 04.29.2022, 5:14 PM ET *

Lol

Also @mmaranks tell Kings fans that the NBA isn’t about popularity getting you to the finals. LOL

But the thing is, His algarisim is not accurate, I don't care, But any ranking Said Sowma is above Francis Ngannu is ********, Francis vs Sowma wouldn't even get sanction, But Sowma is number 3, And Francis is number 8, People need to understand how much this is triggering me with how this doesn't make sense, All ranking need to have the guy above will beat the guy bellow him, 

And this is coming from an autistic math nerd, But I think he using number when it doesn't be needed, or he need a better algarisim so the ranking make more sence, You might as well put a fighter names in a hat and draw them out at random

* Edited at 04.29.2022, 5:46 PM ET *

@ rappinpapsoda

It's a good call.  

I currently have Vassell at 11.  He has a recent 4-0 record with a couple of wins over winning records just like Francis, but one was only a split win, so the way I enter it in makes it more like a record of 3.66 wins and 0.33 losses.

I keep fighters attached to their opponents until the match reaches 3 years old, so some future matches could see him sneak in the top 10.

It's kind of eye-opening to realize how few HWs can boast a record of 4 wins above .500 or better in the last few years.  My parameters allow a fighter's best 6 wins to count, but so few have that many.  Weird that we would see a couple of people who only have 4 wins in the last 3 years reach the top tier.

Regarding Oleg Popov:  Someone on this earth has to have the best win/loss +/- in the last 3 years, and as far as I've been able to find so far, that person is currently Oleg Popov at 10-0.  
I only count a max of 6 wins to avoid anyone just completely doing the tortoise versus the hare thing, but he has a perfect record after MANY recent matches and has actually beat some winning records as well.  One of his opponents is recently otherwise 9-0.  Another one is otherwise 3-0. Another guy 3-1...  you get the idea.  

When put in a record vs record shredder he comes out very well, which is I guess how he ended up as Tapology's #1 ranked Russian HW in their statistical analysis as well.  

I know this success rate vs success rate evaluation isn't for everyone, and I'm not trying to cram it down anyone's throat, but I love how it unbiasedly surfaces certain people whose factual data is strong and allows them to get some notice.  Over the years with this system, and because I had better connections back in the day, (LOL), I was able to push for certain guys that ended up getting big opportunities.  Funny that Oleg Popov's recent 10-0 is a conversation now.  I had a very similar conversation with a "big wig" back in the day about an unknown guy named Tim Sylvia.  I think I was the only one pushing his name at the time, but he ended up UFC HW champion, so the system certainly worked for him.  :)

Regarding Rozenstruik:  I use the total profile system like every sport does, so it's about a bigger picture instead of singular events.  

Rozi's 3-year simplified profile would look something like +15+25+25-1+15-1+25-1 = 102
Francis' 3-year simplified profile would look something like +15+30+20+30 = 95

All those weighted values are based purely on win/loss ratios of fighters, their opponents, their opponents' opponents, and so on.  Tapology has something very similar going on with the regional rankings... I just expanded it to include all organizations, and trimmed the window from 5 years down to 3.

I can't think of any legit sport's formalized standings/rankings that would see a competitor be placed above another based on one result.  They all use a full set of overall results within a specific timeframe, so that's what I went for in this system too.  I know it's not everyone's cup of tea for MMA, but I'm just trying to shed some light on a different approach... one that aligns with how "real" sports work.  :)


I definitely know boxrec!  We were close to making an MMA version at mixedmartialarts.com (The Underground), many moons ago but ended up just going with a fighter database instead.  Man, that was a looooong time ago.  haha.


Hey, wasn't this just supposed to be about Stipe?  :)

Anyway, I enjoy discussing it with you, so thanks for the input.  

Basing your ranks off some who fought the most numerical nonsense rather than who's champ is goofy AF.

You make a very good observation and stated it well.

MMA is actually more aligned with "sports entertainment" in its current form, more so than "sport".

Especially when it comes to the UFC, this is not structured sport where a defined set of competition parameters is laid out and then top-qualified competitors enter into a level playing field where success results determine advancement.

This is more like... Jon Jones, Conor McGregor, Colby Covington, The Rock and Stone Cold Steve Austin sell the most tickets, so they are the highest ranked people.  I mean... Conor McGregor is the #9 lightweight on April 29th, 2022?  That can't be based on sporting principle, right?

But it is what it is... I'm not mad.  I know people are OK with this setup and subscribe to it.  It's totally fine with me if your opinion of what an MMA ranking should look like is a "who would beat who" or a "who's the hot topic currently" or "they just beat so-and-so".  It's all good friends.  I love seeing all the different approaches come together in a consensus here.

I think it's real hard to be consistent with some of the criteria some people use, but it's a bunch of different opinions coming together, so let it be.

Someone above said I just made a list of my favourite fighters.  Nothing is further from the truth.  

I went another direction, setting up a system like those of actual competitive sports that are merit-based... just to see how this would look if MMA were like baseball, hockey, football, basketball, tennis, golf, auto racing, so on so on.  I just enter factual results without any personal sway.  


The fact that my shredder elevated many familiar names to the top is a testament to their success, not my personal preferences.  When the facts in a uniformly-applied system elevate a lesser-known name, hopefully it provides them a chance to have their accomplishments noticed by others, like it does for me.  I didn't know who Oleg Popov was until the data pointed out his effectiveness.  :)


Can you imagine if any of those other sports put someone new to the division straight into the Championship match?  



I love discussing this kinda stuff, so thanks for adding to the convo.

UFC is the best fight the best for the most part, They do sometime stray from that forumula, And I'm not saying, Entetaining fighter don't get benefit, But for the most part, It the best fighting the best, 

Also, Your opinion on who the best is invalid, You have mid heavyweight over in bellator coming off loses over the UFC heavyweight champion, I know ranking is opionated, But your opinion is just factually wrong, And it triguring me how wrong it is

* Edited at 04.29.2022, 9:05 PM ET *

* Edited at 04.29.2022, 9:22 PM ET *

Hey Damien,

I hope you have a great rest of your weekend.  There are some great matches coming up tomorrow!  Tatsuro Taira kicking off the UFC card!!!

Remember that we're all on here chatting about something we love, and hopefully you know that even though we'll disagree from time to time, at least we get to share our thoughts and think about things from a different point of view with people who like the same thing we do.

It's a good time to be an MMA fan!

Peace, man.

Yea, all due respect but those rankings aren’t respectable. Full of Lolz, IMHO. God awful honestly. All due respect though. 


✌️ 💕 & fantasy fighting. 

I like seeing different rankings based off of different criteria. 

Based on your rankings, it looks like we are in for a great fight between Mousasi and Eblen. Both guys are streaking. 

The bantamweights ranking is full of killers too. I think Stots is pretty good and could beat anyone. 

I’m going to keep Miocic on my rankings as long as he fights before the end of the year. I don’t think the value his last wins should depreciate much.