UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Anyone care to explain to me why Rodrigues is the favourite over Marquez, or what the logic is in picking him in this fight given the fact he has the TDD of Mr Burns trying to run across a frozen pond covered in marbles in roller skates?

Because I don't get it.

* Edited at 06.18.2022, 3:04 AM ET *

Because Obama is the 🐐 

Also Marquez is the one with dog**** tdd. It’s so easy to get him to the mat

* Edited at 06.18.2022, 3:15 AM ET *

Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley 

Yanez KO RD 1 

So, i was on yanez DEC all week (and it very well may still go to decision), but after seeing tony have a rough cut, im not so sure. I think yanez will comfortably win this fight, but tony is a solid opponent who will bring the fight to him. Hes aggressive, got a good gas tank, and can brawl if need be. Also has solid bjj but i dont see this fight going to the ground whatsoever. Tony can wrestle if needs be but yanez has shown solid tdd. One thing i dont really like from yanez is he does need to clean things up defensively, but hasnt shown chin issues thus far. He did get clipped in the costa fight and very well could get clipped here, but i dont think it will hurt him too much. Idk I didnt watch a ton of tape on this one, just confident in yanez. I do know that tony will make it more competitvbe than it looks. Or not, cuz he had a bad cut. Idk, this fight will be awesome tho.

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Natalia Silva 

Silva DEC 

Okay so this one is weird af. I originally had jasmine but after seeing her pre fight interview, i switched my pick, heres why; she said she wanted a calculated fight in her debut (whcih she did), and now that shes in the ufc, she wants to brawl and go crazy (not exactly what she said verbatim, but something along those lines). I really dont like that here as she isnt the best striker nor does she have the best gas tank. When i was watching tape on silva, it was kind of shocking she has all these subs cuz she is not a ground fighter at all; she is a pure striker who uses her bjj when the opponent engages. She throws decent volume and moves a good amount on the feet, and if jasmine is gonna stand with her, shes gonna put herself at a big disadvantage. If jasmine does wrestle (which i dont see her not doing), she will likely have success as she is a great wrestler and i have a hunch silva is very willing to be on the ground. Jasmine is also huge for 125 which is a blessing and a curse for her. She has a large size advantage but, this also comes with her not having a great gas tank. She has very slick bjj and she very well could get a submission, but it seems unlikely she will get one here. I mostly think if jasmine is gonna brawl, silva will get the better of her on the feet; shes actually a solid striker. Despite the ugly record and not so great competition, the ufc clearly sees something in silva as they signed her at only 22, and shes had a very long layoff so i expect some improvements. Very unconfident in this pick. 

Court McGee vs Jeremiah Wells 

McGee DEC 

This was one of the harder ones for me to call but ive sided with McGee. He has a bit of a deceptive record because you see the 1-5 stretch in the middle of his career and think hes **** but when you watch the fights, hes actually making his opponents fight for the win; its not exactly easy to beat court despite what the record shows. He has great cardio, veteran experience, simple, yet effective striking, a solid ground game, and an incredibly impressive grappling game. Its not super hard to take court down, but if you do, he gets back up instantly. Out grappling him is very hard, i mean sean brady whos hailed for his strength and grappling couldnt do it at all. Court is also tough as ****; the dudest been finished once in the ufc ever. Now, he does get dropped in some of his fights and the damage hes taken through his career has built up, but, hes good at getting himself out of trouble on the feet. His striking is nothing flashy, but he throws good volume and keeps it simple with a jab and lots of leg kicks. When he gets on top of you, he is very hard to get off and will use his experience and BJJ to control you. Wells on the other hand, is like the exact opposite of court. He is not calculated at all and is explosive as ****. He relies on his strength to win him fights and i dont see that working here. He could ko court, as he does have insane power and only throws haymakers, but that seems unlikely given courts durability and recovery ability. I see him missing a lot of shots while court will pikc him apart with more technical shots. The grappling is where it gets interesting; wells is a renzo gracie black belt, and trains with the high level guys like brady and sabatini, and while he has great bjj, his wrestling is awful. He relies on his strength to get body lock takedowns and well, good luck doing that to court. I dont think he will be able to impose his grappling on court and i see court reversing the position tbh. 

Ricardo Ramos vs Danny Chavez 

Ramos SUB RD 2

Ramos is one of those guys who is a solid fighter right now, but someone who i think will develop into a serious problem later in his career. Hes not even in his prime age yet, and hes going on his 10th ufc fight. Hes very well rounded, mostly being a striker but will occasionally use his grappling. Hes not much of a wrestler, instead choosing to take the back in scrambles, but when he does use his wrestling, hes quite effective. I do wish he would use his bjj more, but hes very capable on the feet as well. Hes fighting danny chavez who is one of those guys who isnt bad, but is one of those guys who i dont really understand why hes on the roster. Hes old, doesnt finish fights that much, and isnt incredible. Hes a striker with really good tdd. I think this fight will mostly play out on the feet and I see ramos getting the better of the striking exchanges. Despite only having 3 kos on his record, chavez actually seems to hit decently hard, but has this weird inability to finish fights. His technique is great and he throws with decent power so its pretty weird to see. I dont think ramos ahs the greatest chin so he will have to be careful, but he should get the better on the feet. I have him by sub because i think this fight will somehow make it to the ground, and with Chavez only really being a striker (he has a grappling background but doesnt use it from what ive seen), I think ramos will exploit the hole. Idk, pretty dumb pick but i only watched a couple of fights from each guy cuz i didnt care. 

Maria Oliviera vs Gloria De Paula 

GDP DEC 

Not too much to say about this one as this is one of the easiest (maube the easiest) fight to pick on the card. GDP has a horrible record, but shes a pretty solid fighter, just has the hole of being purely a striker. Oliviera is only in the ufc from short notice and is not ufc level imo. She has no tdd and has not beaten anyone of quality. When GDP is allowed to strike, shes got pretty clean hands. I expect this to be a pretty one sided decision and maybe GDP will wrestle as well. 

Eddie Wineland vs Cody Stamann 

Stamann KO RD 1 

So this is an easy fight to pick (unless cody somehow sells this which i mean…) but whats hard is the method of how it ends, hear me out. I know the very obvious pick in stamann by decision; i mean the dude hasnt finished anyone in the ufc and has been on a nasty L streak as of late, but, I dont think wineland can take punches any more. When i was watching tape on stamann, hes actually a pretty solid striker; he was throwing with bad intentions against kelleher and i saw him hit a sneaky flying knee against jimmie rivera. He had a bad weight cut yet again, so i dont know how his performance will be affected this time around, but if he shows up, I think he will get a ko, heres why; Wineland has taken a ton of damage in his career and most recently, has been brutally koed in his last two fights, hell, even in his most recent win (grigori popov) he got rocked a few times. He fights in this very unique, yet ineffective (at this point in his career, the game has surpassed him) striking stance: hands down, chin up, with herky-jerky movements and feints. He hits decently hard and has some good technique, but the chin is just gone and he does himself no favors by keeping his hands so low. Now, getting koed by suga sean is nothing to scoff at, i mean the dude has hands, but he got brutally slept and did everything right by taking a long time off, but when he came back and got starched by castaneda, I thought that was pretty telling he cant take a punch anymore. Castandeda is a pretty solid 135er, but, he is not the type of guy who kos you first round. Now, this will be an interesting fight because Cody can strike, but his main game is wrestling. Eddie has a fantastic tdd and i also dont think cody is the greatest at getting you to the mat. Granted, he has been fighting Jimmie rivera (who has a 93% tdd), merab whos the best wrestler in the division, and said nurmagomedov who apparently has an insane ground game (that i just didnt know about). He may have trouble getting wineland down, but on the feet i think he should be able to hit his mark; wineland does not take punches well anymore and he is just way too hittable. Im gonna go out on a limb here and say cody kos him in 1. Ngl, I wouldnt be stunned if cody somehow threw this, but, id say its highly unlikely. 

Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn 

Hawes KO RD 1 

For all of his flaws (mainly just his chin at this point) I actually think hawes is a great fighter. From watching his old fights to where hes at now, he has improved tremendously. Part of this reason is the fact that he has switched camps to sanford mma. They have developed both his striking and his cardio. Earlier in his career, he would pretty much only wrestle you and gas out in the first, but now he has the ability to go the distance (mind you, his cardio still isnt fantastic and he will gas if you push him hard enough) and his striking is honestly really good. He looked great in the curtis fight before getting koed; i mean he was absolutely piecing him up and was using a variety of strikes. Hes also getting a pretty easy win here in deron winn. Deron winn is someone whos really skilled, but doesnt have the drive to be an mma fighter. Hes unbelievably undersized for the division (especially here giving up 9 inches of height and 7.5 inches of reach) and him and hawes are going to look two weight classes apart here, maybe even three lol. Because of this, it does help with his wrestling (the only skilled part about winn), being the shorter guy does give him an advantage because of the low center of gravity. On the ground, i give winn the wrestling advantage by a fairly large amount, but, i dont know how hes gonna be able to impose it against the much bigger guy, plus, hawes is a pretty good wrestler in his own right. One path to victory for him is to spam takedowns and try and gas out hawes, but, his gas tank is pretty bad as well so he cant rely on this strategy. On the feet, its hawes all day, hes got the massive size, technique, and power advantage here. Deron is so undersized that his striking consists of winging overhangs to try and hit his opponent. The Eric Spicely fight was the most telling for me because he was just getting abused by the taller fighter. He would miss 20 punches because of the height difference, and would then have knees spammed in his face in the thai clinch. Maybe hawes could somehow throw this fight but it seems very unlikely imo. I expect him to dominate deron winn. 

Kyle Daukaus vs Roman Dolidze 

Daukaus DEC 

This should be pretty one sided. I also get why this fight is so low on the card because its probably gonna be a snoozer. I like daukaus, but he doesnt always fight at the highest pace and roman is arguably one of the most boring fighters on the roster, plus theyre both grapplers so this is either gonna be a sloppy striking fight or a boring 15 minute hug fest. If neither is content to grapple with one another, daukaus has him all day on the feet. Daukaus isnt a bad striker but we dont really see him use it all that much. When dolidze is on the feet, he is very low volume and picks his shots, throwing very little. His fight iq is really terrible too as we’ve seen in the trevin giles fight; just threw away such a winnable fight at so many moments. Despite being an adcc winner, dolidze’s grappling (at least in mma) is far from impressive. Instead of taking the fight down and trying to smash you from the top, he just likes to hug you against the fence. I was also very concerned by the fact he couldnt take down staropoli, who is a former ww while dolidze is a former 205er; if he cant take down him, hes going to have a bad time against daukaus who is a pretty great grappler in his own right. Hes obviously not as a credentialed as dolidze, but hes a solid black belt. I think this fight could actually end up being pretty boring, hence why it is the first fight of the card, but i expect and easy 30-27 from daukaus where he out grapples roman. Maybe he gets a submission but that seems unlikely imo. I hope he does because roman is soooo ******* boring (nothing against him i just ******* hate watching him fight).

Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett 

Kattar KO RD 4 

I loooove me some kattar. This fight is gonna be ******* sick. You have two incredibly violent 145ers and i think this is gonna be a war. Kattar has some of the cleanest boxing in the ufc. He uses his jab very well and i really like his use of elbows that hes incorporated; he doesnt telegraph them and he can throw them with lightning speed. I think he has underrated power too, although he doesnt get a ton of kos. Emmett on the other hand, is probably the hardest hitting 145er (shoutout stephens) but somehow doesnt get many kos either. However, he has two weapons in his arsenal. The right hook and the blast double. I dont see his wrestling being effective as kattar has phenomenal tdd and the right hook can definitely cause some problems for kattar (maybe even drop him) but i think kattar is the better and more technical striker of the two. I think he will pick him apart for a late finish. I really like emmett, but i think the age is getting to him and same with the really bad injuries hes taken throughout his career. Kattar is not the person you want to be fighting when you have already taken a lot of damage lol. 

Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon 

Cerrone KO RD 1 

Well **** this one is jsut a mess to call. Ive flipped back and forth on this fight i think 20 times since its been announced. Both guys are just so washed and taken so much damage that i just dont know what to think here. I ultimately switched my pick because of lauzon not doing face offs due to cramps, like what? If thats not a telltale sign something is not gonna go well for joe then idk what is. Now, joe is a very fast starter and cowboy a slower one, but i dont see joe koing cowboy. I mean he is very live to as cowboy doesnt take punches well at all anymore, but i think lauzon is more likely to dive in for a sub, which seems unlikely too give cowboy has only been subbed once in mma and has had fantastic tdd throughout his career. Theres also the fact cowboy is still being somewhat competitive, considering he should have beaten pettis (imo) and had that weird draw with niko price, although the morono loss was ******* horrible. For joe, he is very one round or bust. Once it leaves the first, he badly, badly gasses out and will get teed off on for the L. Either way, I think cowboy will kill him because honestly, i think he takes punches just as bad as cowboy does at this point in there careers. Im expecting a sloppy one round affair thats probably going to be very ugly and upset everyone tbh. 

Tim Means vs Kevin HOlland 

Holland SUB RD 1 

This one is interesting from a picking point. I actually wanted to pick tim means because he is a pretty solid vet, and as much as i love holland, seeing him lose the first to the ghost of cowboy olivera was not something i like to see. However, watching tape of means swayed me off. Hes got a good record for how old he is but man his ost recent fight was weird. He was breathing super heavy in the first and used his grappling a lot which was weird. If he uses it against holland, he could win, but i wouldnt rely on it. Id say holland has the better ground game tbh, just poor tdd. From a pure grappling perspective, holland is the better fighter on the ground; I mean Mike Perry almost subbed him. I also dont like how much means got hit in the dalby fight. If he gets lit up like that then holland is gonna spark him. I think this is gonna be a fun brawl but i expect holland to get the win. Feeling a sub here by holland.

Joaquin Buckley vs ALbert Duraev 

Duraev SUB RD 1 

So for u guys who r confident in buckley, dont be lol. He can definitely win this fight but its not gonna be as easy as it seems. Buckley is just not great. Hes very athletic and huts hard but thats about it really. He did show some wrestling against alhassan but alahassan has no tdd or ground game so i wasnt hat impressed. On the feet, I honestly think duraev could outstrike him, here why; buckley isnt this technical god that the impa ko would make you think. Hes very sloppy and wings power shots that look impressive only because he puts everything he has into them. Duraev isnt a phenomenal striker, but he has a jab and uses leg kicks while moving out of harms way on the feet. On the ground, he is going to maul buckley. Buckley has a 40% tdd and is facing a dominant wrestler with a great ground game. If alhassan was able to get you down three times, I do not see this ending well for buckley outside of an early ko. He is definitely live for one, but as the fight goes on i think his chances will wean. Buckelys gas tank is **** too; who the **** gets nearly 10-8’d in the third round by the ghost of alhassan? (buckley robbed him in this fight too) and gets outwrestled by him too, i mean thats just terrible. Not sure where to judge duraevs gas tank because he gassed out bad in his last fight, but, he was fighting at a menacing pace that would make buckley crumble too. I think duraev is gonna smash buckley here.

Damir Ismagulov vs Guram Kutateldaze 

Guram DEC 

This is the hardest fight on the card for me to call. I also think its the highest skill level on the whole card. I mean both these guys are just phenomenal. Damir is someone who you have to fight a perfect fight to beat. Hes knows how to point fight and he knows how to do it very well. He doesnt take a ton of risks on the feet, and is very calculated with his strikes. He is mainly a striker, but has a very high level wrestling game as well; his tdd and offensive wrestling is very impressive. Guram is someone who also impresses me a ton. He trains at all stars with khamzat and has a very well rounded skillset as well. He is much lower volume, but ultizies a wide variety of kicks in his game and has the power advantage i think. I was impressed with his wrestling as well. Granted, he did get taken down a lot against gamrot, but gamrots entries and timing were just perfect and when he did get guram down, it wasnt for super long at a time. I think damir will be more content to strike but, if he does it will be interesting to see how guram defends the takedowns as damir is more traditional with his takedowns (if that makes sense; watch the gamrot fight to see what i mean, he goes for more things like ankle picks and what not). What really impressed me with guram is his ability to use bjj to get back up. He was utilizing very tricky techniques like rubber guard and throwing up omoplatas to reverse the position. Also used a heel hook too. Hes very creative and active off of his back where damir will usually ride out for points. I think this is the closest fight on the card in terms of skill but i think guram will edge it out. No idea who wins this tbh

Julian Marquez vs Gregoryy Rodrigues 

Rodrigues DEC 

I cannot wait for this one and its gonna be a sloppy violent brawl. Both guys can bring it to one another anywhere but I think gregory has teh advantage in all areas. ON the feet, both guys are strikers, marquez likes to spam power shots why gregory is more technical (yet still brawls). IM not sure who to give the power advantage too as both guys hit really, really ******* hard. Robocops chin does worry me, while on the flip side, marquez has a titanium chin. Now, maybe its possible gregory could ko him but i think that is unlikely as i saw marquez’s bellator fight where he must have ate over 100 shots without a knockdown. The grappling is where thuis gets very interesting. Marquez has horrendous tdd; he just lets himself get taken down pretty much at will and his idea of tdd is to pull guillotine. Good luck subbing gregory. Now, he is able to get back to his feet pretty easily and actually is surprisingly effective at using kimura sweeps to get back on top. INterstingly, I actually think he will be able to get up if gregory gets him down. Gregory has super high level bjj but for some reason, his body triangle is pathetically weak; i mean people can break out of it with relative ease, and with marquez being so strong, I dont see him not being able to break out of it. Theres also the wrestling. Obama doesnt use his wrestling all that much, but when he does its surprisingly effective. Hes got good technique and uses his strength well. Besides my bias for gregory, I also think he will win because of marquez’s health issues. He got sidelined in 2018 for knee surgery, and has then had to pull out of a bunch of fights for health issues. Not good to see hes not being healthy in his daily life. I also thought he didnt look great in either of his two fights back. I mean he was losing to maki who was stupid enough to keep walking into the guillotine and against sam alvey he made him look like gynosanya with his head movement; i literally saw him dodge a flurry of like 8 punches while also landing his own good shots on julian. If gregory lands those same shots, its not gonna be pretty. Overall, I think this is gonna be close, and mainly play out on the feet but i expect gregory to be better everywhere.

Again bro, only my opinion but this is what I think, and I really do like Marquez, just not sure this is the spot for him.

Jacked Obama has 4 weaknesses imo,
1. Somewhat poor cardio, usually survives because his output is not high and he does not wrestle
2. Low output (see above)
3. Does not wrestle enough (see above)
4. Questionable chin

His pros are
1. Good power and good technical striking
2. Decent takedowns and judo throws
3. High level BJJ when he bothers to use it

When it comes to Marquez, he is not getting KO'd, thats very unlikely. But is he going to win a striking battle against a more technical striker like Obama. Also if you see how Obama did against a really good striker like Petrosyan it makes me think he will be able to handle Marquez on the feet unless Marquez catches him on his questionable chin. That is a real possibility.

When it comes to grappling there is no doubt in my mind that Obama is the much much better grappler, again subject to his cardio holding up. Marquez is mainly an opportunistic submission grappler and Obama is not getting caught in a guillotine, he is too high level for that. On his back I think Marquez is in real trouble and could get finished quickly. The only worry I have regarding Obama's grappling is that for such good BJJ player his inability to control his opponents is really strange. 

Still overall I think skillwise Obama is better, his cardio has looked ok recently and his chin has survived. Could Marquez land a bomb and put him out? Sure that could happen. But overall I think Obama has more chances of winning and I could easily see him submit Marquez. Only thing is will he take it to the ground? My main concern is that he won't

I don’t get how anyone can be confident in a 6-4 women in a fight, she only won 60% of her fights, she can easily lose the fight, Oliveria does suck too, but at least she an underdog

In a fight where both girl suck ass, just take the dog as you rather have money on the dog then the favourite because In fight like this they do tend to be 50-50

@duck GDP is really good when girls aren’t taking her down. Oliviera has zero wrestling whatsoever

Thanks for that info bro, I too do not like to hear Jasmine say that. Not one bit. I had her as winning fairly easily with her size and strength (listen to Brandan Olivas who has trained with her talk about how strong she is). And her defensive wrestling is good enough. But hearing that makes me worry and certainly does not make me want to bet anything on her at all. Still picking her though.

I think I might be thinking of a totally different fighter.

Edit: I was thinking of Olivier Aubin-Mercier, and I am ********.

I'll see myself out.

@rusty yeah hearing her say that all I could think was “***?” I mean if she really wants to just brawl with Natalia, she’s not gonna win on the feet. Silva is a decent striker from what I’ve seen. Here’s the article if you want to read. Sounds like the worst gameplan ever tbh. Also the 8 year age difference is pretty wild. One thing I didn’t like is you could see silva was almost overwhelmed at face offs yesterday. She was loooking around at everything in amazement which tells me two things. 1. She’s not used to fighting in front of a big crowd and 2. This is clearly a huge step up for her. She is very young and hasn’t fought in 2.5 years, so she’s definitely improved but she may not be ready for something like this just yet


https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2022/06/ufc-on-espn-37-jasmine-jasudavicius-little-bit-crazy

* Edited at 06.18.2022, 3:30 AM ET *

I think we both see Obama the same way. Really good BJJ but does not use it enough and finds it hard to control people on the ground. But he is not getting subbed by Marquez. Just cannot see that happening.

GDP is levels above Oliviera in her striking and probably better on the ground too. Its obvious if you watch tape on both of them.

@rusty ya that would require some glover vs jiri type **** for marquez to sub him lol. I do not see that Hail Mary guillotine subbing an ibjjf winner lol. Especially when he puts no hooks in and. Just relies on brute strength. He can get Gregory in it, but no chance he taps him

* Edited at 06.18.2022, 3:33 AM ET *

???? 

Exactly

I watched some of Oliviera's fights. She's absolute dogwater. If her stance has a name, it's' old-woman-trying-to straighten-a-wall-hung-painting'. Just stands there, saucer-eyed, with her fists hanging by her tits at shoulder-width. Looks like she's waiting to catch a baby thrown out the second story of a burning building.

She isn't going to win.

* Edited at 06.18.2022, 3:40 AM ET *

She’s only in the ufc to pad up fighters like GDP. They brought her in to fight ricci, who is good but green. Olivera hasn’t beaten anyone with a winning record lol

Bro I am actually now picking De Paula to win by finish. Either KO or submission.

I think there is a very good chance that could happen.

Picking her by R2 sub.