UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

17/24 fighters have already weighed in.

ME and Co-Main included 

* Edited at 06.24.2022, 12:28 PM ET *

Umar, Vanessa, viera, and the two HWs are left. Umar and viera missing weight wouldn’t shock me and the two fatties are basically on weight so the only surprise to me is Vanessa 

Vanessa and two hws remaining

* Edited at 06.24.2022, 12:54 PM ET *

I wonder if dagestan weight bully misses weight 

Nvm he made it 

Ik it’s been said a million times but does anyone know why the 265ers wait till last second to weigh in. I mean these guys are probably cutting weight but still 

They don't wanna hang out backstage for 2 hours waiting for faceoffs. Why show up earlier than you have to?

Ahh that makes sense acrually

How much time does Vanessa have left? 30 minutes?

I hope she misses weight. Then that gives more backing to my frey by ko pick 😈 

It's a red letter day weigh in drama results and PFL and Bellator woohoo gonna be a fun time on the old forum tonight! 

Yikes 15 minutes for Vanessa to make weight 

Wow she made weight 

* Edited at 06.24.2022, 1:47 PM ET *

in what time are the face offs? 

Top of the hour I believe 

Chris Curtis Round 2 KO
Chris Curtis has a huge amount of MMA experience, a lot of patience, excellent TDD and instant KO power. Vieira has a veeeery questionable gas tank and a strong reaction to being hit. Unless Vieira snatches up an early sub I really can't see him lasting 3 rounds.

Shavkat Round 2 Sub
Magny is good but predictable. 4 of his last 5 losses have come via finish. Shavkat is better absolutely everywhere and will make a statement against Magny. Unless Magny knows something we don't given he keeps calling out guys like Khamzat and Shavkat...


Arman Tsarukyan via Decision
Gamrot is a tough challenge everywhere. I think Arman may give away the last round, but win an otherwise fairly decent decision 49-46. 

Carlos Ulberg vs Tafon Nchukwi 

Nchukwi DEC 

This one is one of the harder ones to call, but i think tafon should be fine here. Carlos is an odd fighter because hes very skilled, but also very green (i mean so is tafon but hes getting more and more experience now and also looking better). Ulberg is pretty big physically and trains at a great camp in CKB. his kickboxing is great, hes got power and throws very high volume, also picks his shots very well. However, you can see hes nto fully comfortable as an mma fighter yet. He was ultra aggressive in the kennedy fight and after that ko loss, he looked changed. Now, it was good to see a new approach from him, not as aggressive and just picking apart the opponent, but, he didnt look comfortable whatsoever. His chin was too high (another problem with him being green, he tries to fight like a kickboxer) which got him clipped twice by one of the worst fighters on the roster (at the time) and again, he just didnt look comfortable not being the hammer. I dont like when fighters try to be somebody they arent, because it doesnt work (see costa vs kelley for example), you have to fight where you are comfortable and make the adjustments to do that. Now tafon on the other hand is someone ive **** on like crazy (especially for that park performance), but he has improved a lot imo. He also comes from a striking background but imo he has better transitioned it into mma. He has great technique and knows how to throw high volume and pace himself. Hes also improved the cardio, tdd, and wrestling as well. One interesting angle for this fight is the measureables. So, tafon is a smaller guy, and he still is here, but, they have the same reach which is interesting. I think this is advantageous because we saw how tafon dealt with fighting a bigger guy in mike rodriguez (gratned hes total dog****) and I think this will help him here. Its a close fight but i think tafon is the better mma fighter at this point in his career. 

Tj Brown vs Shaliyan Nuerdanbeike 

Brown SUB RD 2 

Okay so this is one where i want to be confident in brown, but u just cant be with this guy cuz he sucks. He looked great in the rosa fight but, yknow, charles rosa lol. He really should win this easily cuz shaliyan is one dimensional and not even fantastic in that one dimension. On the feet, its brown all day. His striking isnt really that great whatsoever, but he is aggressive and you really dont need any caliber of striking to be able to beat shaliyan. I mean shaylian has literally no striking. He will do some feints or some head movement and then maybe throw a punch or a leg kick here and there. Brown’s striking is very predictable, and hes very aggressive with it. I mean he kept spamming the overhand right counter to the leg kick in his last fight, which anyone with skill would pick up on after like the seventh time he did it. Its basic kickboxing but at least hes aggressive with it. Hes also a decent wrestler in his own right. He can spam takedowns and scramble pretty decently. Shaliyan doesnt blow me away with his wrestling whatsoever. Its good, but its nothing fantastic and i also dont exactly know the level its at because culibao had an easy time stuffing it and even ******* sean soriano gave him hell with the reversals for the first round and a half. One thing thats interesting is shaliyan has lined up with sanford mma and has been training with shavkat for this camp. I doubt it helps him but just something to think about; maybe we see some improvements (doubt it). And, idk what supplements hes been taking but this guy is ******* roided as ****; he looks gigantic in every photo i see of him. TJ brown is terrible so i really could see him losing this, but shaliyan has not impressed me with anything he does and unless his striking has been elevated, i dont see him winning this. Tj is **** enough he could throw this tho. 

Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov 

Morozov KO RD 2 

I cannot wait for this fight; I think its one of the more slept on fights on the card. I get why the odds are the way that they are but i really think morozov is the better fighter everywhere. Imo, he is talented enough to be in the top 8-15 of 135, but hes held back by 2 things: he keeps his chin up very high, and he doesnt have the greatest submission awareness. Besides these two things, hes an absolute monster. I mean the striking is clean and he carries a **** ton of power. He was putting some good work on taha and was piecing up d silva before the ko (more on that later) and in his fights outside the ufc, he has koed people with one punch before and when i was watching the rettinghouse rematch, he was absolutely *****ing him on the feet and the ground. Hes not at striker either, hes got high level grappling as well. He was able to defend decently well and also beautifully utilized the granby roll against umar. When hes not the one fighting a dominant russian wrestler, his sambo is great. Hes getting an opponent who like him, is very talented but just cant string it together. Paiva is in an odd spot because hes just an average sized 135er, but hes too big to make 125. He also has this weird ability to make every fight closer than it should be, which is a blessing and a curse because hes won fights he should have lost, and also lost fights he should have won. Hes a tall, rangy guy whos not phenomenal on the feet, but he is effective. His hands are quick and even though he doesnt have a lot of kos, he can crack when he lands cleanly so morozov has to mind his ps and qs on the feet. Paiva has solid bjj too and a good guillotine so against, morozov has to mind his ps and qs on takedown entries, but for the most part i think he should be fine. Honestly, for as much as i say morozov keeps his chin too exposed, paiva honestly does it a lot too. He has been hurt in a ton of his ufc fights and even though hes tough, its not good to get clipped all the time like that. Tbh, i honesatly think morozov will ko him here. Both these guys have issues defensively, and morozov can really crack so i see that happening. If not, hes just gonna wrestle him to a decision likely, as paiva can be taken down and controlled. 

Cody Durden vs JP Buys 

Buys SUB RD 1 

So this is a fight i was very on the fence on, but after watching tape im decently confident in JP here. Watching his fights, he a ton better than i originally thought, even in his ufc losses. I mean his fight style is just high paced madness. On the feet, hes not a crazy good striker but hes super fast and that helps translates to things like his jab. However, he is much more of a wrestler. Almost instantly, he shoots from an odd angle and uses his scrambling ability and wrestling to gain an advantageous position. Im very impressed with it all and also impressed with his ability to transition from submission to submission; it probably is because of his speed. His cardio is good too. For some reason, i thought it was **** but ive seen him have crazy scrambling battles that go longer for three rounds so im not sure where i got that idea. Durden on the other hand, is not a terrible fighter but he is held back by his bad gas tank and the mistakes he makes on the ground. He is a very solid wrestler and also has some solid striking as well. Hes very aggressive and throws a lot of leg kicks. Hes aggressive with the wrestling too. I think this fight is quite interesting because i actually think jp is the better grappler here, but he can be reversed and we saw him scramble so much in his first dwcs appearance, that he got put in mount and smashed. He can get reversed because hes a smaller guy but also he is always looking to do something on the ground, so that could end poorly for him considering durden knows how to wrestle. In terms of the bjj and what not, JP is much better on teh ground. The question is, can he avoid getting finished for 3 minutes? Because this fight is gonna hit the mat (im 99.9% certain) i dont see durdens gas tank holding up in the scrambles, its just dependent on can he get into full mount and pound away for a tko or will he gas out and get subbed? I suppose he could get a ko on the feet but i dont really see it; JP’s chin isnt nearly as bad as i thought it was, hes just sloppy defensively. His recovery time is actually incredibly impressive, but the problem is hes too reliant on the chin so he doesnt move it whatsoever. I still dont think durden has the powe4r to spark him out either. Also, for as much of a liability with his chin is JP, durden makes just as many mistakes on the ground, which is why i see him getting subbed. I either see him gassing out after the scrambling and getting subbed, or just getting caught in a sub anyways. I could also see jp get reversed and smashed in mount, but it seems unlikely imo. 

Mario Bautista vs Brian Kelleher 

Bautista DEC 

This is a ******* awesome fight. Bautista is someone i rate decently highly and hes finally getting the kelleher test to see if hes ready for a step up in competition. Brian is a very solid vet. Hes got the ugly record, but he only loses to the top guys and puts vet lessons on the ones who are not good. On the feet, he is the smaller guy and usually at a disadvantage most times (hes at quite a big one here imo), but, he does carry solid power as weve seen against azure. I think bautista should have him covered everywhere on the feet; he is higher volume, has the longer reach, better arsenal of attacks, etc. the one thing he has to look out for is the power of kelleher. While bautista has a great chin, his two losses have came from him not protecting the chin and getting caught with big shots (flying knee leading to sub from cory and ko from jones) kelleher can crack so he does have to be wary of this. ON the ground is where it gets very interesting. Kelleher has pretty solid bjj, especially his guillotine and has became very wrestling heavy recently. Hes quite good at it too, dominating his last two wins and even having some success getting up and defending tds from umar. Bautista can be taken down pretty easily from what ive seen, but, his scrambles and get up game prevents him from getting held down too long. His cardio is great too so i can see him scrambling all day, which could gas out kelleher. Now, I know brian hasnt shown any cardio issues (at least what i can remember) but (and this is where things get interesting), he has only fought at 135 once in his past 7 fights. Even when he fights 135ers, hes been requesting the fights at 145 (ricky simon, umar, etc.). This is significant imo because hes getting older, and has missed weight in the past (not for a while and i dont think in the ufc, but he has done it outside the ufc before) so its possible he doesnt like cutting down to 145 as much anymore. His one fight at 135 was against pilarte and he dominated him, but, pilarte is ******* horrible so you cant gain a ton from that fight. Another interesting angle for this fight is the ground. Again, bautista can be taken down easily but as i mentioned, he has shown some pretty solid scrambles on the ground and i dont think its crazy to assume he could submit kellher here too; i think it likely goes to decision but kelleher does make mistakes and is sometimes lazy defensively, so i could see that happening too. I think this will be close and competitive (and also very fun) but i think bautista should have the edge everywhere. 

Jinh Yu Frey vs Vanessa Demopolous 

Frey KO RD 3 

Okay, hear me out, this pick look ******** (and likely is) but, I have good reasoning for it. Its highly unlikely the outcome does happen, but, after watching tape i think its honestly not the most farfetched pick in the world, heres why: when you watch demopulous fight its… interesting to say the least. ON her record, it looks like shes gonna try and take you down and get a submission, but watching her fight its totally the opposite. She is a pure striker who uses bjj as a defense mechanism. All of her work on the ground is done off of her back and she uses it when she gets clipped badly in the hopes of her opponent being low iq enough to go on the ground and it has worked (see hughes fight or juarez fight). However, vanessa’s striking is just abysmal. She has t-rex arms and just isnt a good striker in general. The worst part about her striking however, is how hittable she is. I mean her chin is not good whatsoever, and im not just saying this because she basically got koed by juarez; if you watch her fights, she just blocks punches with her face, and she is tough, but she is getting dropped or badly hurt in every single fight. I mean just watch the loopy fight. Loopy is a phenomenal fighter but, lets be honest, she doesn have ko power. Well, in that fight, she hurt vanessa badly. Every. Single. Round. I mean for 5 rounds straight she had her on ice skates and even dropped her two times. Now, she didnt finish the fight and i have no reason to expect frey will either but, watching frey vs yoder is what give me faith. I had never watched frey before this and she is quite boring. Her striking is low volume and basic, but, thats more than enough to beat vanessa. She has great tdd (i know the hansen fight was a bad look considering how easily she got put on the ground) and is great at keeping the fight where she wants. I will say, for someone who goes to decision a lot, she throws with a decent amount of power. If you watch the yoder fight, she had yoder hurt quite a few times, especially with her counter left hook. Theres also the fact that demopolous isnt a wrestler first, nor are her takeodwns actually good. I expect her to try and stand with frey for three rounds and get pieced up; yes, i am gonna be stupid and take frey by ko but idk, vanessa is just gonna let her tee off on her and if that counter left finds its mark again, vanessa is going to sleep. This pick is either gonna make me look like an idiot or a genius (definitely an idiot) but im gonna risk it anyways. Actually, after seeing demopolous have a **** weight cut, im pretty cinfident here.

Arman Tsaruykan vs Mateusz Gamrot 

Tsaryukan DEC 

I think this fight is gonna be a lot closer than the odds would indicate and i also really dont like the gamrot slander on here; the dude is really ******* good. I watched all their ufc fights and i actually came away with a lot of info. I didnt see gamrot get tired against cdf like everyone was saying and in fact, i actually saw arman getting tired against islam (granted it was short notice but still). I think arman is a stud and him and gamrot are 1000% the future of the division but i dont think hes so phenomenal hes just gonna run through gamrot like everybody thinks. Its interesting on the feet because both guys are high level grapplers and we could very well see this taking place on the feet. If it does, i think i give the edge to arman. Hes got some solid iikcboxing skills and is very technical on the feet. His best weapon is his high kick, which he throws very quickly and with lots of power. Gamrot ahs this really weird stance on the feet where he keeps his hands kind of at his shoulders and doesnt throw a whole ton, but he really cracks people when he lands. The grappling is also gonna be interesting because you have the combat sambo of arman vs the catch wrestling of gamrot. Arman is much more traditional to what we see on the ground with the takedowns and what not, and i mean, the kid is really good in that realm, he gave a tough grappling fight with islam and outgrappled guys like OAM and joel alvarez (although that was a nightmare amtchup for my boy joel). Gamrots grappling is interesting because, at least in the ufc (i was lazy and didnt do my homework in watching his ksw fights) he doesnt really hold people down. He shoots for an ankle at really low angles, and then transitions that into a takedown. Then, his opponent has usually done some crazy scramble and he follows suit. I enjoy watching it, but i dont like it here against a beastly grappller in arman. Then again, we could see neither guy be able to take one another down and then we get a (probably) boring striking match. If that happens i dont really know who to pick. Anyways, I think arman will win but all u guys gotta stop the gamrot slander cuz this guy is really ******* good. 

Neil Magny vs Shavkat Rakhmonov 

Shavkat SUB RD 1 

I mean… theres not a whole lot to say here. I will say, shavkat is elite but man he has a lot of holes and questions that need to be answered. I mean, his skillset is great, he can strike and grapple and hes comfortable everywhere, but he is a little sloppy. We dont know how the cardio is (hes been to a third round like 3 times so im gonna assume its solid but we still dont know) and he is reckless on the feet with his striking defense (seen him dropped a ton). This being said, he is still a phenomenal prospect. Hes training at sanford which yknow, is the place to be if youre a hyped prospect so im assuming theyve worked on cardio and all that fun stuff. Now, hes getting the most veteran ww there is in neil magny. Hes been there and done it all, fighting the best of the best and never turning down fights. Magny is just a tough fight for anyone, hes got a huge frame for teh division, solid grappling, great striking, great cardio, and he just knows how to win fights. However, i think the damage and age ahs caught up to him since the ponzi beatdown. He was out for 2 years after that, and looked solid still, but then he fights max griffin and just looks bad. I mean, max griffin looked improved but he is not a top 15 caliber fighter and he really brought it to magny. Magny just looked slower and just not as good as he used to. I know its not mma but i keep going back to his loss in fury grappling where he got subbed in under 3 minutes by a lightweight (netto bjj) whos not even super high level on the ground. I saw that and was like man “this is the dude who wanted to fight khamzat?” i mean no disrespect but seeing him subbed that easy was just shocking to me, and then the griffin fight happens and im like “hes just not the same fighter anymore”. Now, he could come out and make me look like an idiot but if he looks the saem person who grappled silva and fought griffin, i think hes gonna get messed up and finished badly. I think this is shavkat all day tbh, also he wins however he wants but im going by sub because magny has a tendency to get finished on the ground. 

Josh Parisian vs Alan Baudot 

Baudot KO RD 1 

This is the hardest fight on the card to call by far. Both these guys are absolute ****ter, bottom of the barrel, trash cans. Parisians only special move is a ****** spinning backfist and he has no gas tank, bad striking, no tdd, and just sucks all around. He got gifted a lucky win against roque and is coming off of nothing short of a beatdown against mayes. Hes fighting alan baudot who is just so embarrassingly bad, it makes me sick that im picking him. I mean he entered the ufc on a dq win, that was really a loss where he gassed out and got subbed in the third round, but it was changed to a dq win because the opponent tested positive… for weed LOL. His fights as a whole have just been weird. He has been to a 5th round before yet he quits once h gasses like everytime. Hes just so inconsistent too; i saw him look like a world beater agaoinst nascimento, then gasses out and gives up in the second, yet he fights parker porter and makes it to a decision… and actually looks better than before? idek . this fight sucks, should even be on a regional card yet its on the main card of otherwise a very high skill level card. Nice job ufc. Nobody wins this, the winner will just get another fight before getting cut, the loser loses, and the fans lose too. Im hoping this is either quick, or turns into the sloppy brawl the ufc thinks it will be (it wont @mickmaynard @seanshelby) 

Thiago Moises vs Christos Giagos 

Moises SUB RD 2  

This is a bit of a weird one but i think this should be thiago all day. Giagos is a weird fighter because hes consistent, yet inconsistent if that makes sense. Hes consistent with his win loss record, but he always shows up a different fighter. On the feet, he will sometimes come at you like a bat out of hell and then other times he is low volume and just doesnt strike with you. Same goes for his wrestling, he will dominate guys with bad tdd and then kinda struggle against the better guys. On the feet, regardless of how he shows up hes just a liability. He doesnt protefct his chin well and hes gotten lit up in his past two fights. Moises is a really good striker imo; especially watching that hernandez fight he just looked so sharp and was countering everything beautifully. I think the problem with moises is every time he looks good, the ufc throws him to the wolves and his good performance gets squandered because he fights a guy way above his skill level. But at his best i think hes a top 15 gatekeeper. Again, the muay thai is really clean and he is a great counter puncher. The bjj is very solid too. I think what likely happens in this fight is it plays out on the feet until giagos gets countered and hurt, and then moises is either gonna ko him or sub him. I wish i could say more but i 1. Didnt really watch a ton of tape and 2. Have a hard time seeing how giagos wins. I mean, he is at sanford now and looks like a totally different person so maybe we do see him improved but i just dont see him winning this. 

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Nate Maness 

Nurmagomedov DEC 

What great matchmaking on this. Maness is an underrated guy but hes tremendously skilled. He is a gigantic 135er (in terms of measureables) and watching him, im really impressed. Hes tough af but he also does a lot of things right. The fight iq is really good and he picks his shots well on the feet. He doesnt always throw a ton of volume, but everything he does throw has lots of power and his opponents dont see it coming. He is a bit of a slow starter, but he picks it up after the frist round. He is really impressive everywhere tho, In the sanders fight, once he dropped him, he almost instantly took the back and subbed him; i was impressed. And then against gravely, even though he almost got koed, he was defending the takedowns very well and then landed that crazy counter shot. So, hes got great fight iq, huge frame, honestly very impressive tdd, and good striking and good power, he also has this weird ability to be able to get the come back finish. However, the line is why it is because of russian tax. I mean, umar is very good but he shoukdnt be more than -350 tbh. I truely think Umar is legit, I mean his striking is fantastic and he has that dagestani wrestling. His striking is very fun to watch because its not traditional whatsoever, he pretty much exclusively uses kicks; teep kicks, leg kicks, spinning kicks, and his best weapon, the queation mark kick. I mean that ? kick is just crazy, theres no telegraphing it and he throws it very quickly with loads of power. His wrestling is also fantastic too although i do have my questions about just how good it is exactly. Now, he did smother, takedown, and finish two really solid grapplers in morozov and kellher, but, they offered a good deal of resistance with their scrambles and get up game, even kelleher defended a solid amount. So this begs the question, is his opponents just really good at countering wrestling, or is umars wrestling not as dominant as we think? Dont get me wrong, its very high level, but if people are getting back up or defending the shots then its not khabib or islam level. Maness will be a good test for this because he knows how to defend shots. I think maness will push umar and i expect umar to use his striking ehre to push him to a decision. 

Chris Curtis vs Rodolfo Viera 

Curtis KO RD 3 

I cant wait for this one. This is quite the interesting fight too because each fighter clearly has the advantage in their respective realms. Curtis is a great striker who will ko viera if this stays on the feet, and viera is p4p one of the best bjj practitioners right now so if he gets it to the ground he could sub curtis. So, this one is interesting to break down. Vieras striking isnt terrible but he only has one mvoe which is the jab. His jab is fantastic, but when its ur only move its not that effective, especially against the very good striker in curtis. Viera thrives in the grappling. His wrestling is great and the bjj is just insane; i mean if this touches the mat im pretty sure curtis will get subbed, viera is just that good. Well actually, idk, we have seen viera takedown guys and then then get back up before so i could see that happening. From watching tape on curtis, his tdd is very impressive, i havent seen him taken down once on his entire winstreak, and he clearly knows what hes doing because he does all the right things to defend. The balance is good, the sprawl is great, he just knows how to keep the fight where he wants; probably a mixture of experience, knowledge, and strength (curtis is freakishly strong). ON the feet, its just curtis all day. He is a bit of a slow starter, but he just doesnt give af about the opponent, he will take his time to find the reads and then slowly work them down (hence why he has so many 3,4th round finishes). One thing i really like from curtis is the body work. He mixes in body shots so well to his opponents and i think thats huge here because viera is known for not having great cardio so we could see him start fast and wane as the fight goes on because of the body shots. Now, for the intangibles but just something to keep in mind: this is the battel fo the man with no fear, vs the man scared of his own shadow. Curtis will fight anyone, anywhere and he doesnt care about their skillset, while viera has crippling anxiety and performance issues. He has stated multiple times hes terrified of losing and he just doesnt trust in his abilities. Then, he pulled out of the turman fight earlier this year because they found a tumor in his brain that almost ended his career. I have also heard hes running a bjj academy full tiem down in florida, which means his mind isnt 100% on mma atm and thats never something you like to see in a fighter.

bet your houses on Gamrot, Mayo picked Arman! I repeat, houses on Gamrot

Lol let’s hope