UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I would be very surprised if we see Turner try to go for a takedown in this fight. He's not that kind of a fighter, besides Riddell has solid takedown defence. I personally think this will be a striking match and perhaps a clinch here or there. If it does go to the ground, I may give the edge to Turner. Riddell does have good wrestling. 

To give Barbarena some slack; his fight against Weeks could not go any other way. Garry had similar problems as Barbarena in his fight against him. That's because Weeks is a very passive fighter, has really good striking defence and barely leaves himself open for counters. So you can't really take much from that fight in my opinion, other than the fact that he had Weeks hurt a few times with his solid leg kicks. 

I'm very convinced that Pereira's grappling has not improved that much since his last fight against Silva. Silva is not a grappler by any means and took Pereira down, which was his first takedown in the UFC. The other thing worth mentioning is that Strickland has very good striking defence and doesn't get hit all that much. I think it's fair to say that he will never win a striking match against Pereira, but he can definitely touch and hurt him. We saw that in Pereira's fight against Silva. Regardless, I'm pretty sure we will see Sean wrestle in this fight. The question is just how much of that will we see.

Everyone made weight.

I don't know about made him look "amateur" but Whittaker did clearly win that fight. Jared had him on skates by the end of the 3rd though despite being already pretty wobbled himself. I honestly can't say Whittaker wins that fight if its a 5 rounder. The next 2 rounds of that would have been interesting to watch for sure.


Izzy should out-point him or get a late finish here but I'm nowhere near as confident in such an idea as I thought I'd be. He's also one the longer fighters Izzy has fought. Izzy understandably has a reach advantage over pretty much everyone due to his size/build but he normally has 5-6+ in advantage. Cannonier joins Brunson, Jan, Wilkinson and Silva as the only guys he's ever fought that he only has like 3in or less in reach over. 

I'm more torn than I thought I'd be for sure. Cannonier is just tough as **** man. Without counting Whittaker again since they'd fought already and Izzy knows somewhat to expect, this is arguably his toughest challenge in like 2 years. 

I got a unit on Max. I could cash out for a 0.01 unit profit right now.

Edit: I cashed out. I want to like those odds on Max but I really don't want to bet against Volk. I never bet against him before and the man never ******* loses.

Good thing Betfair is essentially like the stock market, buy odds high then sell when they're lower and you can make a profit from just line movement.

* Edited at 07.02.2022, 12:09 PM ET *

Adesanya vs. Cannonier
Israel Adesanya, TKO, R4
Jared does not have the patience to deal with an extremely technical Izzy. Adesanya is gonna beat him up by staying on the outside and then Jared will get mad and Izzy will clip him and put him away just like he put Costa away. Jared is not a wrestler so I'm not worried about him going for the takedowns here. I see no path to victory for Cannonier unless he lands a lucky shot.

Volkanovski vs. Holloway III
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
This fight will be razor close and I want Max to win by but I'm going with Volkanovski again. Volk is a couple of fights away from being the greatest Featherweight in UFC history.

Strickland vs. Pereira
Alex Pereira, TKO, R2
I was gonna pick Sean Strickland at first because he has the grappling and wrestling advantage but after rewatching tape, I just can't pick him. His head movement is so damn bad and he always seems so stiff when striking. I think Pereira catches him at some point, maybe with a kick.

Lawler vs. Barberena
Robbie Lawler, DEC
Gotta go with Lawler here. Is Lawler pretty much done? Yes. But this is an amazing fight for him because Bryan loves to scrap and I don't think he's gonna go for a takedown. I'm not saying Bryan is bad because he's not but he's very hittable and if Robbie can't win this then he should probably retire.

Munhoz vs. O'Malley
Sean O'Malley, DEC
O'Malley isn't putting Munhoz away. I think O'Malley wins this fight but this is a HUGE step up in competition and even though Pedro had been looking awful in his past few of fights, it's against top competition. This fight will be close but O'Malley will be too quick for the smaller Pedro.

Riddell vs. Turner
Jalin Turner, TKO, R1
I like both guys but give me Turner. This dude is huge for the division and he's gonna clip and hurt Riddell early and Brad is gonna crumble. I wouldn't be shocked to see Brad start winning the fight if it goes into the 2nd and 3rd round but I don't think it gets there. Turner is still improving which is scary.

Cerrone vs. Miller II
Jim Miller, TKO, R1
Miller has shown his power lately and I think he shows it again here in the rematch. I'm scared for Cerrone at this point. He's absolutely washed, Miller still looks amazing.

Garry vs. Green
Ian Garry, DEC
Garry will win this fight by a decision. Green is tough enough to survive and I think he puts the pressure on Garry a little bit but it's not gonna be enough to break him. I will fade Garry in the future but tonight is not that time.

Tavares vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, TKO, R2
"Wow Tavares looks amazing right now"... "and he's knocked out." That's the story of his career. Brad always looks great until he gets punched or finished. Du Plessis is the real deal.

Hall vs. Muniz
Uriah Hall, TKO, R2
Hall survived with ACJ. I don't think he's gonna be afraid of the subs coming from Muniz. I think he survives early and then knocks Muniz out. Muniz has some of the worst/robotic striking I have ever seen in a fighter and it's not getting better yet.

Eye vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, DEC
Both aren't good but give me Barber. I can't back Eye and I don't think I ever have. Barber is overrated at this point and I wouldn't be shocked to see Eye win but I will take Barber.

Clark vs. Stoliarenko
Julija Stoliarenko, SUB, R1
Armbar from guard coming for Stoliarenko. Clark will take her down and then give up her arm. I also think Julija has better striking than JRC as well.

Adesanya vs. Cannonier
Israel Adesanya, DEC
hoping cannonier can mix things up between leg kicks and trying to get inside, but i'm expecting izzy to be prepared to counter.

Volkanovski vs. Holloway III
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
first fight i thought was clear for alex, second could've gone either way, i think alex will be able to make adjustments again.

Strickland vs. Pereira
Alex Pereira, DEC
sean may try to wrestle a little, but i think his ego will take over and he'll get stuck striking.

Lawler vs. Barberena
Robbie Lawler, DEC
bryan doesn't use his wrestling often so i think he'll trade here and that's not gonna be great against robbie even though he's shopworn.

Munhoz vs. O'Malley
Sean O'Malley, TKO, R1
hedge. pedro hasn't been ko'd, but they're being very careful with how they match sean up so i'll assume the range will be the key factor.

Riddell vs. Turner
Brad Riddell, DEC
i get that there's a huge size difference, but brad has looked dominant outside of his last fight against another contender so i'll say he can push the pace and get turner's arms extended.

Cerrone vs. Miller II
Jim Miller, TKO, R1
not sure how badly cowboy wants to be here anymore

Garry vs. Green
Ian Garry, DEC
i wanna say green isn't totally outclassed here, but he's clearly the smaller man so i'll favor the more rangey fighter.

Tavares vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, TKO, R2
feeling like dricus will be aggressive enough to keep brad backing up.

Hall vs. Muniz
André Muniz, SUB, R2
kinda disrespectful to have this on the prelims when it is very clearly a relevant fight for both guys. hall was taken down quite a few times against strickland, don't see why muniz can't do the same. and clearly he's good enough on the ground to finish top guys.

Eye vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, DEC
not sure who i want to win/lose here, but i'll say that maycee's aggression leads to td entries?

Clark vs. Stoliarenko
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
tempting to say jess gets subbed again since julija relies so heavily on catching girls in her guard, but i don't think the takedowns will be as available as they were against egger's judo.

You can sum up the main event literally by just looking at what both of these guys did to Silva (very fair because these fights were 3 months apart).

One guy point fought him to a decision, the other guy broke his leg in less than a round. This doesn't mean Cannonier just walks through him, but it does tell me he's probably gonna bring a little more pressure than say, Yoel Romero did. 

Adesanya vs. Cannonier
Israel Adesanya, DEC
The headliner is the ONLY reason O'Malley isn't the most annoying fighter on this card.

Volkanovski vs. Holloway III
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
Great fight that could've been even greater if they hadn't had the 2nd fight immediately after the VERY clear first fight but had instead waited for one or both of Max's subsequent wins to happen before making the 2nd fight.

Strickland vs. Pereira
Sean Strickland, SUB, R3
Strickland will win because the UFC wants Pereira to win

Lawler vs. Barberena
Robbie Lawler, TKO, R2
For me this is an even clearer case of levels.

Munhoz vs. O'Malley
Pedro Munhoz, SUB, R2
This fight annoys me almost as much as O'Malley. Low kicks from Pedro leave Sean susceptible to a reality check. Club 'n' Sub most likely.

Riddell vs. Turner
Brad Riddell, DEC
Nope, there's levels to this ****

Cerrone vs. Miller II
Jim Miller, TKO, R1
My most intriguing fight of the night

Garry vs. Green
Ian Garry, DEC
For Garry's sake, he better not finish Green because Daniel Rodriguez couldn't and that fight would just be too perfect to make if he does and I don't think he's ready for D-Rod.

Tavares vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, TKO, R1
I've always liked Tavares so this hurts

Hall vs. Muniz
André Muniz, SUB, R1
The only real danger in this fight is overthinking it.

Eye vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, DEC
The hate for/she is shot thinking about Eye is way too much

Clark vs. Stoliarenko
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
What a terrible loss this would be for Clark

We got same thinking of this card, pretty much and close. I mean if it's about betting money on these fighters.

I keep switching my cowboy vs miller pick, gonna go with my heart and pick cowboy.

I’ve also gone back and forth on lawler vs bam bam and Strickland vs pereira, great night of fights tonight anyway really looking forward to it.

Adesanya vs. Cannonier
Israel Adesanya, KO/TKO
I think Cannonier makes this fight really close. Izzy is unfortunately too skilled and either takes another decision here or finally breaks Jared in rounds 4/5.

Volkanovski vs. Holloway III
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
Seen this fight twice already.

Strickland vs. Pereira
Sean Strickland, DEC
Strickland is too well rounded and well trained to fight Pereira like he fights most fighters. This fight honestly might be extremely boring and needs to be if Strickland wants to win. Every Pereira strike is thunder but I think Strickland will be able to hold his own enough while it is standing as long as its brief.

Lawler vs. Barberena
Bryan Barberena, KO/TKO
Barberena has the clear speed and volume advantage here. His glaring hole is his TDD but don’t see Lawler using that here. Lawler of course only needs one good shot though and we’ve seen him lose 2 rounds of a fight before and then get a KO in a third. Coin flip.

Munhoz vs. O'Malley
Sean O'Malley, KO/TKO
Munhoz is super durable but he might finally get finished here. Omalley will need to watch the leg kicks but he’s way to long for Munhoz.

Riddell vs. Turner
Jalin Turner, KO/TKO
Too much length for Riddell who despite being a really good striker and kind of under-rated overall gets hit a lot.

Cerrone vs. Miller II
Jim Miller, TKO
Cowboy is cooked.

Garry vs. Green
Gabe Green, DEC
This is a really good test for Garry that I’m not sure he’s quite ready for. Green is tough as nails and despite giving up some height here has basically the same reach. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if he sleep Garry.

Tavares vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, KO/TKO
Tavares is literally a gatekeepers gatekeeper and a point fighter to top it off. A solid test for Dricuss but his volume should carry him here.

Hall vs. Muniz
André Muniz, SUB
Murder.

Eye vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, DEC
Eye isn’t good and I say this as someone who’s not even on the Barber hype train.

Clark vs. Stoliarenko
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
Clark is better overall but she will have a slight size disadvantage and is susceptible to being subbed.

Riddell vs. Turner
Brad Riddell, DEC
Tall guy gasses changed my mind

Tavares vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, TKO, R2
I could beat Brad

Hall vs. Muniz
André Muniz, SUB, R1
Uriah being sacrificed

Eye vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, DEC
WMMA IS Wmma

Clark vs. Stoliarenko
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
I like Jessy she fly

Clark vs. Stoliarenko
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
Eh.... Gimme Clark.

We locking in 3. Everyone ready?

Taking a lot of underdogs. I'm either gonna look like a genius or a dumbass!!!!