UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Brad Riddell vs Jalin Turner 

Riddell KO RD 1 

This is the hardest fight ive ever had to pick since joining tapology. I have watched every single ufc fight (and even some regional fights) of these two guys and i still cant make a solid argument for either fighter. Jalin turner is just an animal at 155. Hes bigger than everybody, has lethal striking, lightning fast hands, is incredibly fast in footwork and hand speed, and has fixed his defensive wrestling and improved his bjj. Now Riddell is undersized here but in terms of technicality, i think hes the better striker, better wrestler, and has much more experience. All this being said, i still cant pick a winner. On the feet, turner actually doesnt use his reach for distancing all that much, instead he uses his length to pick you apart with body shots up close and because hes so tall, his knees are able to be thrown to the body and head very easily and without much telegraphing. For Riddell, i think he is the better striker but the problem is how is he going to deal with the length of Turner? Riddell is much smaller here and while he has a crazy chin, he does get rocked a ****load in fights and with the power of Jalin, I really dont like that here. At the same time though, jalin has the tall mans striking defense (44% defense) and i think riddell could take advantage of that. He hasnt really shown chin problems, but turner has been koed 3 times which is a lot for a young prospect and while riddell may have 0 finishes in the ufc, he hits really ******* hard, specifically his left hand, so i could see him getting a ko here. I think an x factor here is riddells wrestling, but obviously that cannot be relied on here, especially because jalin has improved his tdd a lot. However, we did see matt frevola beat turner with the wrestling so that is a path to victory. However, im pretty sure this will be a standing affair, where i have to favior jalin but idk i feel like riddell can do it. Then again, I really have 0 clue who wins this one and i cant see a clear way either guy wins. 

Jim Miller vs Cowboy 

Miller KO RD 1 

I mean this fight is just…. Idk. SOoooooooo many variables in this one idk where to even start. Cowboy is just not in good form at this point in his career; the damage is catching up with him, he is slow, and just overall hes at the end of his career. Now, this is an easier fight for him in that hes not fighting this fast, young, and hungry guy in his prime and hes also at a better weight class for him as hes not cutting as much weight (more on the weight cutting later). He also has the advantage in that he beat miller once before. Now, miller may alos be fading, but hes in a much better place than cowboy is. Miller has been fighting the younger, hungrier guys (albeit at a much lower level than cowboy has) and he has been looking good. Oddly enough, hes been having success in the striking realm, brutally koing his last two opponents. Now, id be lying if i wasnt saying miller isnt on the decline in his own right; his cardio fades after 2 rounds now (sometimes earlier) and his chin isnt that great as well (still better than cowboys). However, i like him here because i think hes far less washed than cowboy. Cowboy showed in his most recent fight that his chin is pretty much gone no matter the weight class (although he somehow didnt get chinned by pettis or price) and i think jim just has more to offer here. Theres also something interesting that ive noticed in that cowboy has done some grappling competitions outside of fighting and hes been getting finished in those too (granted he did beat RDA and also losing to craig jones is not bad at all but still). Finally, theres the fact this fight is at 170. I really dont like miller at 170 as hes smaller and carrying that extra weight could probably end up slowing him down (or conversely, cutting less weight could help the cardio (not sure what his issue for slowing down is but i assume its the weight cut)) and for cowboy, being at 170 is definitely better than 155, BUT, theres the fact this is his third weight cut in a month (close to it at least) and dont get me wrong, i love that hes hungry enough to take a short notice fight in typical cowboy fashion, but that short notice style just wont work for him anymore. When he was younger sure, but at the old age and considering the damage hes taken in and outside of the cage, i really dont think its going to end well for him. Just look at trevin jones or chris duncan from dwcs last year. They cut weight multiple times in a month and ended up having very bad performances. I sadly feel the same is coming for cowboy. 

Ian Garry vs Gabe Green 

Green KO RD 2 

Before the garry nut riders start complaining at me for this pick let me just preface by saying I am not a garry hater, but i do not think hes as good as everyone else thinks; this is a tough matchup. If he wins, then ill start beliving in the garry hypetrain. That being said, the skillset is there, i just think he needs some refining. He can strike very well, has great wrestling, and great awareness on the ground too; basically, hes covered everywhere in mma. However, i just dont really think hes been forced to fight yet. Now, yes, i am saying this having seen all of his CW fights, but i just dont think hes been pushed yet at the ufc level. I mean, jordan williams did give him some issues when they fought but yknow he sucks lol. I think Gabe Green is really slept on and can push him anywhere the fight goes. On the feet, I think it will be similar to the williams fight, where green is just gonna be in his face at all times and not let go. Thats how he fights, hes got unlimited cardio and throws loads of leg kicks and punches to the face and i think that is gonna cause problems for garry much like what we saw in the williams fight. However, if gabe green wants to take it to the ground i think hes gonna lose actually. He has a pretty good ground game but he is too content to spam heel hooks and thats just not gonna work against garry who knows better. He might not be elite in my eyes but he isnt an idiot; hes not going to fall for some low level heel hook attack and if green does grapple, hes going to lose. However, i think hes just saying that because of his recent promotion in grappling, his style is to strike so i dont know why he would deviate. 

Brad Tavares vs Dricus du Plessis 

Tavares DEC 

This, like the majority of fights on this card, is one that i have been going back and forth on all week. Unlike the majority of tapology, I actually think dricus is quite good, but, i dont think he will win here. I mean, he is very live for a finish but tavares should be better everywhere. Dricus has an extensive kickboxing background and carries some ridiculous power. However, his striking is just so weird. He keeps a weird stanc, throws leg kicks weirdly, and leaves his chin open all the ******* time. I dont understand how his striking defense in the ufc is so good (68%) because he leaves his head open in every engagement. Now, tavares does not have crazy ko power, but he has been in there with the best of 185 and knows how to deal with tricky strikers. Du plessis also has pretty good (imo) wrestling and a solid bjj game but i dint think he will have much success here as tavares tdd is pretty insane. He is very hard to take down and if you do take him down, he gets back up right away. I do have some concerns for tavares chin. Now, he is a hard guy to get out of there, but after seeing the ahkmedov fight, I am a little concerned. First, we saw edmen spark him, who has probably less power than dricus if im being honest (and also aged pretty badly as a loss) and then when i was watching the akhmedov fight, i saw him clipped pretty badly 3 times. Now, if its du plessis landing those shots, tavares is likely going to sleep. I do also worry about the output of tavares as he sometimes does not throw that much at all. I also think he has to fight very smart (he pretty much always does) as du plessis is fantastic at countering when his opponents make mistakes. I may end up switching my pick again but for now im going tavares to weather the early storm and get a decision. 

Uriah Hall vs Andre Muniz 

Muniz SUB RD 1 

So this is a fight i originally thought was gonna be easy work for muniz, and it still may be, but i would be lying if i didnt have some doubts here. Now, Hall is the most hot and cold fighter ever imo; some fights, he starts out super hot and looks great (costa fight or ACJ fight) and other fights he will be losing to people he should beat (lewis or old silva) before getting a late finish. He is a really good striker but just has this weird mental block that he cant seem to get through and i also question his heart a lot. At his best, he has a killer jab and loves to throw spinning kicks with no telegraphing and great timing. Even at his worst, he still maintains crazy power as well. From watching his fights, what ive seen is the easiest path to victory to beat him is unrelenting pressure. In every fight hes lost (even in fights hes won too) he loses because his opponent doesnt respect the striking and gets right in his face not letting him fight at distance. Now, I think this is what muniz is going to do. He knows his stirking and chin is not good so hes going to be reliant on his bjj and wrestling to get him this win. Muniz carries some solid power but again, the striking just isnt there really. Where he excels is the bjj, i mean this dude is just phenomenal. His wrestling isnt great, pretty much only having a double for his entries, but he knows how to finish you and i am also really impressed with his ability to take the back pretty much effortlessly. Now, where my worries come in is what happens if this leaves the first? We’ve seen that andre gasses bad once the fight leaves the first round so if he cant get the finish in the first, we could see a class uriah performance where he loses the first couple of rounds and gets a late finish. Uriah’s tdd is also pretty bad but if muniz cant get him down, he will also just get jabbed to death and finished. This being said, I think muniz will get him out of there but i have my concerns should this get extended. 

Jessica eye vs Maycee Barber 

Barber DEC 

I didnt watch any tape for this one so im just gonna keep it simple. Eye is terrible, one lookat her ufc record tells you that, but, she may end up making this more competitive than everyone will think. Now, why? Well, because barber sucks. Shes not nearly as good as the hype would tell you and also, for as bad as eye is, she has had a lot of close fights and also beaten some good girls in her career. She holds wins over chook and araujo and had very close fights with maia and wood (i thought she beat maia) so she can definitely bring it on the feet. However, I just think barber gets by because she is freakishly strong so i expect her to just win an easy decision. She could definitely lose this fight tho cuz yknow, she sucks but i kind of hope she doesnt because i want to see barber vs blanchfield next. 

Jessica Rose-Clark vs Julija Stoliarenko 

JRC DEC 

So this fight is just greasy. If JRC didnt look like she did last fight, i would probably say she would dominate here, but she didnt so theres that. On paper, this should just be easy work for JRC but again her last fight was just bad. Juljia really confuses me because you see her fights and she looks like she has no cardio and no striking, but then you see shes gone 5 rounds before no problem and in her last fight she was piecing up alexis davis on the feet so i dont really know how shes gonna show up. I think she may be a better striker than JRC honestly, but i dont really know. ON the ground is where this one gets interesting. Julija is pretty much first round armbar or bust and JRC’s gameplan is simple; just grind out the opponent with wrestling. Now again, if JRC didnt get subbed last fight, i wouldnt be worried whatsoever about this but if she was stupid enough to not practice grappling against a judoka and adcc medalist, then idk. Granted, that was syndicate mma’s gameplanning for you (worst gym of all time) and JRC has switched back to CSA and spent time at Alpha Male for this camp so that should help a ton. I think she should just wet blanket julija for 3 rounds and get an easy decisiaon but again, you just never know with low level wmma.

Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier 

Izzy KO RD 2 

I hope adesanya gets a finish here cuz if he doesnt, hes dead to me. His last few fights have been absolute snoozefests so he better fight exciting here. Before i talk about why hes getting a finish, i want to say that cannonier is a great fighter, but hes just outclassed here. He trains at the MMA lab and their guys are always well rounded everywhere. However, i dont see a path to victory for him outside of a freak ko. Izzy is just levels above on the feet and seeing jared nearly get koed by brunson (one of the worst strikers at 185) and whittaker just makes me think hes not surviving all 5 against izzy. Now, i am impressed with his composure and mindset; he is not fazed WHATSOEVER and its really impressive given the spotlight and caliber of fighter he is facing. That could bode well for him in terms of performance because he isnt scared of izzy, but still, i dont see him winning this one. I think izzy will style on him and get a finish (hopefully because i cant bare another 25 minute snoozer from izzy)

Alexander Volkanovski vs max Holloway III 

Volk DEC 

I watched 0 tape on this one (definitely should have tho) so i could regret this but i think volk is just on another level rn. He already beat max twice (cry max fans) so i dont see why he cant do it a third time. Max has been talking about how his camp has seen something that theyre gonna finish volk with but okay sure lol good luck with that. I dont think anyone is beating volk rn. 

Sean Strickland vs Alex Pereira 

Strickland SUB RD 2 

Im sorry guys but i am just not on this hypetrain whatsoever. Pereira is insanely high level on the feet but he just hasnt impressed me enough to make me think he can beat a 25-3 ultra vet in sean strickland. Sean may be dull, but he knows how to win and i think he will show that here. Sean is a good striker in his own right and we saw that pereira can be hit in his most recent fight. Sean is a jab merchant but he also protects his chin well and has a high fight iq, meaning hes gonna wrestle if he gets hurt. Now, the ufc was thinking this is the easiest path to the title shot for pereira because sean is an egotistical striker who talks about wanting to stand and bang but they dont realize he can wrestle and grapple very well too. I saw him out grapple court mcgee which is insaenly hard to do and hes used his wrestling before like in the hall fight. Pereiras tdd is concerning. He was losing the first round against andreas michalidis before michalidis blew his load and gassed and then bruno silva, who is a pure striker, took him down too. Now, Strickland was training with eblen for his mousasi camp and im sure this means hes gonna wrestle. Sean has underrated bjj too so i think he will find a tap (knowing strickland tho im sure hes just gonna wet blanket alex but one can believe). I just really dont think pereira has enough experience yet to beat someone of this caliber. If strickland doesnt wrestle, I think he will have success but the advantage is still going to be in pereiras favor. He could win on the feet but it seems highly unlikely. I think sean is going to grapple most likely and i dont trust pereiras ground game.

Robbie Lawler vs Bryan Barberena 

Lawler KO RD 3 

This is another one where i just dont know. I mean, i think robbie is much better than bryan and while he is washed, im not belieeving hes as washed as everybody else on here is saying he is; I personally thought he looked fine in the diaz fight. He was dealing with the pressure well, took his time to wait and land the necessary combos, showed a great chin (his chin has always been amazing), great cardio, and fought at an insane pace. Now all this is good because this means hes fully equipped to fight barberena here. Barberena is the definition of a brawler: little technique, no stirking defense, no grappling, just wants to stand and bang. He always makes fights competitive, but i actually think hes taken more damage in his career and wearing way worse than Lawler is. Bryan had a near career ending injury and ever since then, he just hasnt looked great. There was that massive disappointment against jason “glass chin” witt and then he “won” against matt brown (everyone thought he lost that). Hes just looked slow and doesnt take unches that well anymore. Now sure, robbie has slowed down a ton too but just look at the level of competition between the two; its not close. Sure, robbie got the **** beaten out of him, but he was losing to top dogs while barberena is barely beating debutants and looking like **** against guys like jason witt. I dont think hes going to hurt lawler or be too overwhelming for him because lawler showed in the diaz fight that he can still take punches and his cardio is still fine. Theres also the motivation factor here; you have barberena who said he was retiring if he didnt get resigned and lawler who said the nick diaz fight made him want to keep fighting still. Idk its close but i really think robbie has more in the tank here than bryan does. I think the damage will start to add up for bryan and he gets put away late. 

Pedro Munhoz vs Suga Sean 

Sean DEC 

I really want to believe pedro can win this one but this is just a terrible matchup for him. Pedro is a brawler who has some high level bjj, but doesnt use it all that much anymore. INstead, he stands bangs with people despite being severely undersized for the division. He does have crazy power, a crazy chin, and utilizes calf kicks very well, which we know is a serious path to victory against sean. However, i just think this is easy money for sean. Hes getting a striker who is much smaller than him which just plays into his game. He is going to utilize his movement and length to outpoint pedro. I think a ko on either side is definitely live, but pedro can withstand an insane amount of punishment so i dont think a finish will happen here. I do wish pedro was just a little bit bigger and i would favor him here. His ability to put hurt on the opponent is unbelievable (just watch johns vs munhoz; one of my favorite fights) and he is game as they come, but i think this is similar to his last fight where he can hurt his opponent, but his opponent is just better than him in the movement and striking so thats going to confuse him throughout the fight.

Robbie is just sooo iconic welterweight fighter

I agree with most things you said regarding the Riddell vs Turner fight. I finally had some time to rewatch some fights from both of them. I feel more confident picking Riddell now. I will explain why.

Riddell likes to step in to throw a cross left or right and has really good counterstrikes. He may be stationary and doesn't really move a lot as a striker, but he has really good fight IQ and knows exactly when to step in or back out to defend shots. He's not a superfast striker, but his timing is top tier. That being said, he does get hit every fight he's in. He seem to have problems with strikes that come through the middle (jabs, frontkicks, knees). Which is exactly something that Turner does well. As you mentioned, Turner has really fast hands and he seem to have a solid ground game. One thing that I really don't like about Turner is that he has a very upright stance, doesn't have any head movement and leans forward too much when he strikes. He may be a lot taller than Riddell and has a reach advantage, but he is not the rangy kind of fighter like for example a Neil Magny. Turner prefers to press forward and I think that plays in Riddells favor. I can really see Riddell get a KO in this fight.

I struggled with this pick a lot earlier, but I think that was mainly because Turner has momentum and is on a four fight winning streak (all finishes). In addition, Turner has finished his opponents in all of his wins and lost the fights that went to the judges. If Turner wins come Saturday it will most likely be a KO/TKO or submission. If Riddell wins, it could be a KO/TKO or decision. I can't really see it go any other way.

Yep I fully agree with you there. I think from a technical standpoint riddell is the better striker the only problem is he’s dealing with a huge and fast af guy. I’m also glad you also recognize that turner doesn’t use his reach to keep distance as well; I think that plays into Russell’s game more.I think he’s getting a ko as well.  

Also, I noticed he looked uncomfortable (imo) in the fiziev fight; he seems to do better in wild brawls rather than technical striking battles and with turner I really don’t see this fight being anytbing but a brawl 

* Edited at 07.01.2022, 5:31 PM ET *

Tapology's forum grew in numbers to a point where this thread has already more posts than Blachowicz - Adesanya thread, and fight night hasnt even started yet 

That’s probably mostly from me to be fair

I bet ya'll ************s be jerking it to cartoon **** 

Yeah, Riddell usually wins the dog fights as well. The Mullarkey and Dober fights are a good example of that. I personally don't think Riddell will be in a similar fight as the one against Fiziev. I think most fighters will look uncomfortable against Fiziev lol. That fight was really high level and very tactical. Fiziev also fought differently as he normally would. He fought more methodical and with a lot more patience, because he knew he could not fight the same way as for example his fights against Bobby Green or Diakiese. Riddell's timing and counters are too good for that. That could be one of the factors Riddell looked uncomfortable, because he didn't expect it.

Anyways, the other big question mark for this fight is Turners chin. Like you said, he has been finished a few times before. Riddell hits really hard and I doubt Jalin can take those shots the way a Dober did. He just does not seem that durable. So I agree with you on that aspect as well.

Glad we see eye to eye on this pick 

I've jerked it to cartoons once or twice but not since I was a kid, 35 years old or so at most.

Riddell vs. Turner
Brad Riddell, TKO, R2
I like Riddel here because he a great kick boxer in a fight that most likely stay on the feet, Being bigger doesn't alway mean a good thing, I think Riddel is going to KO Turner who been KO a few times over the years, But the biggest reason why I'm picking Riddell is because he from City Kickboxing and he got he's bois who are champions hyping him up, I felt like a dumbass picking Tafon over Ulberg when I saw Volk, Brad and Izzy cheering him on, I'm not making the same mistake again

Cerrone vs. Miller II
Jim Miller, TKO, R2
I fell like this fight is closer then people making out to be, If Miller doesn't blast him out of their in the first round or early round 2 then he is fook, I'm leaning him blasting Cerrone out their in the first, But a late finish prop on Cerrone might not be bad,

Garry vs. Green
Ian Garry, DEC
I want Garry too lose, I don't like him because everyone saying he's the "next Conor McGregor" , But they're giving him easy matchup , I fell like Green is going to loss a clear 30-27 decsion

Tavares vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, TKO, R2
I have no idea, I'm really tempted to pick Taveres here, I think he better, I don't think Dricus is that good, But boy can he hit and a part of me think Taveres is winning they just get slept,

Hall vs. Muniz
André Muniz, SUB, R1
I'm really like Hall or Hall by KO because he never been submitted before and what does Muniz look like if he doesn't get a early first round submession, And Hall can crack also, But I do think this will be submetted as Hall has mid takedown defence, and Muniz subs are awesome,

Eye vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, TKO, R2
I say I take Barber but I'm not confendent at all because Barber isn't that good and her hands kinda suck, I think Eye could outbox her, I think I just think Barber wins despite being ****

Clark vs. Stoliarenko
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
Don't know, Don't care

Unpopular opinion:
Brad Tavares will beat du plessis
If you have du plessis would love to here why? 

The dude Du Plessis has been showing some good striking and countering, but I’m pretty sure I heard he’s got Great grappling to go along with that. He’s a HUGE prospect for the Mw division… 

I agree with you

I wouldn't call him a huge prospect. He does have solid grappling and counterstrikes. However, he gets hit a lot and his offensive striking isn't the best. This fight against Tavares is a lot closer than most people think it is. The big decisive factor in this fight is Du Plessis' KO power. Other than some clinch work I really don't think we will see a lot of grappling in this fight. Personally I only see Tavares winning by decision, since his striking output is really low and he barely uses his wrestling to take his opponents down. 

I think the play here is to either go for Tavares by decision, Du Plessis by KO or Du Plessis by decision. I really don't see Tavares finishing Du Plessis here.

Du Plessis and Jalin Turner gonna win. 

Hall vs. Muniz
André Muniz, SUB, R2
uriah ko muniz sub split dec

Eye vs. Barber
Maycee Barber, DEC
h***mqeRYMQETRHHHH5RE5H

Clark vs. Stoliarenko
Julija Stoliarenko, SUB, R3
SUB OR DEC

Something tells me max might go to sleep 

Idk. Compared to poirier, I don’t think Volk has any chance