UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I hope Askar wins just because of how hard some of you guys are painting this narrative lol. Yeah he did some ******* **** and he lost a ton of fights but he doesn't look worse than a lot of the other riffraff the UFC brings in these days. He's big and strong and most likely not afraid to brawl, that is all it takes to be dangerous in a mostly low-skill division like LHW and it's not like he's fighting a top level guy.

Can't be emotional in your betting, is Menifield -167 really a gamble worth taking?

Where did I say you shouldn't post or that you suck?  When did I get emotional about anything you said or whatever that little rant was?  Did you thumb that **** out from the passenger side of your mom's mini-van?

I'm not going to say "you suck" if "Alanzo" wins.  I'm not even saying "you suck" for being off on Chidi.  There are plenty of fights I am wrong about.  Especially with recent cards, I can assure you that I am probably 50-60% confident on who is going to win and then the rest is a coin flip or my best judgment.  No one knows who is going to win every fight.  However, you continue to talk to people in a condescending manner more and more each week as if you have done some incredible research and that you are going to "help" people see how good someone is or "say it with me 'recency bias'".  If you are arrogant like that, people are going to have fun with it.  Relax, stranger.  You are going to be fine.  Grab a Lunchable, an orange slice, and a Capri-Sun and cool off.  If Alonzo loses I will definitely own that as a bad-bad read and take any shade that deservingly comes my way because there is no reason in hell he should lose to a guy who isn't even a legitimate fighter in a good regional scene.  If Alonzo wins, I'm definitely going to joke about that, as well.  However, I'm not going to say "you suck" or "shouldn't post".

As far as Rinat is concerned, you just said great... I exaggerated to poke fun by saying World Class.  Again, this wasn't to be taken seriously.  Yeah, I don't think Rinat is a GREAT wrestler.  I think he should win this fight but I have a lot of concerns about his future moving forward against better opponents.  I did officially pick him by TKO.  I could be wrong but that is my gut feeling.  If he goes out and proves to be great at wrestling all of a sudden, then I would be pleasantly surprised.  I am nervous about that fight.  I am fading Andreas' gas tank and his 3 or 4 knock out losses more than I am taking Rinat for any great wrestling.

* Edited at 06.02.2022, 4:40 PM ET *

I don't think there is much to be emotional about.  I feel the play is to fade the guy that is isn't even confident in his own record to the point he hides his errors.  I will take the guy that believes in himself over the guy that has that much insecurity going on, any day.

* Edited at 06.02.2022, 4:35 PM ET *

Exactly why I shared my perspective on the previous page. LHW isn't a very high skill division. Mozharov sleeping Menifeld doesn't sound wild to me at all. Menifeld stinks but I think he wins this fight. 

I agree with you.  It has been an anemic division, as far as finding new blood post Jones/Cormier era.  I don't think had this situation been at any other division, aside from 205 or 265, this fight would not be happening or allowed to happen after all that has come to light (if it ends up happening).

* Edited at 06.02.2022, 5:12 PM ET *

Good points.  I'm okay with the fight happening.  I only really have sympathy for the guys that were budged out of line.  That sucks for someone to have that opportunity taken from them.

* Edited at 06.02.2022, 5:34 PM ET *

Volkov vs. Rozenstruik
Alexander Volkov, DEC
I see Volkov jabbing and teep kicking his way to a UD here. Bigi Boy is gonna be too stunned to throw and will get backed up against the cage the whole fight.


Ige vs. Evloev
Movsar Evloev, DEC
Ige is a solid dog here but I think Movsar's chain wrestling and cardio is gonna be enough for him to get it done 29-28.


Trizano vs. Almeida
Lucas Almeida, SUB, R2
Kind of a bold pick here but Trizano could legitimately be winless in his UFC career. I personally don't think he beat Klein, and his other two wins are by SD. Almeida is very explosive and has fought 5 round fights before, so the cardio should hold up well. Trizano has been choked out before and I see Almeida sinking in a RNC and making him tap.


Botelho vs. Silva
Poliana Botelho, DEC
Low level WMMA fight, so betting on it would probably not be wise. I rewatched Silva on the contender series and her TD defense was a bit suspect. She didn't show an ability/willingness to get up when put on her back either which makes me think if Poliana can be heavy on top she could probably keep Silva there the whole round. Silva is active off her back though, and has pretty slick striking which worries me that she might be able to isolate an arm or land a good combo, but I see Poliana's well-roundedness being able to carry her through this UFC debutant.


Osbourne vs. Adashev
Ode Osbourne, DEC
I like Ode's length and wrestling in this fight, two things that Adashev has struggled with in the past. Adashev does have good leg kicks though, which is worrisome, but I do think the aforementioned skills will be able to win Ode at least two of the three rounds in this fight.


Menifield vs. Mozharov
Alonzo Menifield, TKO, R1
With all the controversy surrounding Askar as of late, my opinion is that he is just a can crusher. Even at 25-7 I was suspect of his level of competition, but now at 19-12, it seems the UFC really screwed up signing this guy. Regardless of the result of this fight, he will probably be cut after, and I expect that his mentality will also be screwed up approaching this fight. Askar has tapped after getting hit with one clean shot before, and I expect nothing different. He's gonna come in fast and swinging and I expect Menifield to catch him with a check hook that drops Askar and makes him quit.


Herrig vs. Kowalkiewicz
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
Another low level WMMA fight, but this one a rematch. Even thought Karolina is 0-5 in her last 5, the level of competition was very tough. She did beat Herrig last time and in a fight like this where both woman are old and way past their primes, I'm picking the one who got it done before (she's the underdog too which is a little bonus if you want to sprinkle a bit on her).


Solecki vs. da Silva
Joe Solecki, DEC
I expect a grappling match here. Da Silva's record is padded, but he does have some good wins. That being said, he's been out for almost two years, and Solecki has been quite active fighting good competition. Alex's TD defense is good, but Solecki is a pure grappler and I expect him to maintain the better positions on the mat for the majority of the fight.


Jackson vs. Argueta
Damon Jackson, SUB, R1
Not much to say here, Argueta is taking this on short notice, up a weight class against a top 20 FW. I do think Argueta has a promising future in the UFC but I do not see him having anything to stop Jackson's grappling.


Saint-Denis vs. Stolze
Benoit Saint-Denis, TKO, R2
Benoit has had one of the toughest debut fights in recent memory, and he held his own against a solid bench mark test for himself. His level of competition in BRAVE pre-UFC was very good as well. I think he's better than Stolze anywhere the fight goes and I see him getting a GNP TKO in the middle of the second.


Gravely vs. Munoz Jr.
Tony Gravely, DEC
I've always been very high on Gravely. He fought a ton before coming to the UFC and against solid competition in many solid regional companies. All of his losses are to high caliber fighters and while he is susceptible to submission, I don't see Munoz having much success in this fight. His road to the UFC is the opposite of Gravely's and his only UFC win did not age well at all. His only chance is to take the back and get the choke and I think Gravely can prevent him from doing that for 3 rounds.


Molina vs. Zhumagulov
Zhalgas Zhumagulov, DEC
This is my sleeper fight of the night. I think we're in for a very high paced fight with lots of scrambles. I'm taking Zhalgas here because of his aggressiveness and wrestling. Molina doesn't have great TD defense and I think Zhalgas is gonna have a wrestling heavy gameplan. I've been high on Zhalgas ever since he was signed due to his resume of opponents. He has also fought insanely tough guys since being in the UFC and personally I thought he beat Paiva. Molina is on a huge win streak but his wins are against lesser opponents. Ultimately, it might be a bit of favoritism here, but I think Zhalgas gets at least two rounds here and gets it done.


Michailidis vs. Fakhretdinov
Rinat Fakhretdinov, KO, R1
Rinat's record is kind of padded, but like da Silva, his recent wins look pretty good. He's managed to stop two UFC veterans with a variety of finishes as well. Andreas is kind of chinny, and I don't think his grappling is gonna help him much in this fight. His win against Bhullar has not aged well either and he has been stopped twice in his two losses in the UFC (yes Pereira is a stud but still). I don't know how high Rinat's ceiling is in the UFC, but I do think he'll be able to crack the chin of Michailidis and get the win.


Blanchfield vs. Aldrich
Erin Blanchfield, SUB, R2
The odds are stupid on this one, so stay away. Like many others, I think Erin Blanchfield is gonna be a future star in the UFC, but her at -500 is a bit absurd. Aldrich has very good TD defense which I think could pose some issues for Erin. Aldrich was submitted by Tatiana Suarez, who is another stud grappler on the same level as Blanchfield, so I think Erin will be able to strap on an RNC in round 2.

I don't like the self confidence  in Askar Mokranov as I think a fighter who belive in themselves wouldn't do that ****, Having a ******** record doesn't make him a worst fighter, But him not believing in himself is why I'm switching my pick to Menifield

Volkov vs. Rozenstruik
Alexander Volkov, DEC
Go Alex

“Grab a lunchable” lmaooo 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Evloev is going to have problems with Ige.

Evloev was taken down six times by Mike Grundy, who isn't anywhere near Ige's level anywhere, and struggled badly with Lentz. 

I know his record is sexy with that '0' and the fact he's Russian, but this isn't one of the rock solid all-rounders - he's got weaknesses, and I reckon between Ige lighting him up on the feet and being able to take him down early, he should be able to win on points.

Morazhov will get submitted in the first round. His submission defence is horrific.

Movsar kinda sucks for 16-0 ngl. He’s good but not that good 

Yeah, I think he is good enough to beat Dan Ige in that particular matchup, but I really worry when/if he fights someone who is not slightly shopworn the way that maybe Ige is at this point who is also a top ten fighter.  And man, Ige could be live here.  I just can't get there at the window, but I wouldn't be shocked.  I definitely think I got too excited chasing the line a few weeks ago.  I am glad I didn't get -410 or whatever he is now...but jeez.  At some point I get a bit worried when I see the line that wide.  I feel like there is something going on.  lol.

* Edited at 06.02.2022, 6:56 PM ET *

Movsar has a serious tendency to not be able to notch as many takedowns in the third round. It’s not like he gasses, but look at his takedown percentage round by round. In every third round he’s been to in the ufc (which is every fight lol) his accuracy, in order from most recent to debut, is 2 of 4, 0 of 0 (just gave up trying to take Nik down), 0 for 0 (again, didn’t even bother to take down Grundy), 0 for 4, and 1 for 6; very fishy. I think the spot to fade him is when he faces a wrestler who has high level striking. Ige is not the spot to fade (although he can definitely win) but that’s going to come in his next fight or so. He should win because ige showed he’s not that great against wrestlers but man, movsar is way too content on the feet. I think this looks like a repeat of the Dawodu fight

* Edited at 06.02.2022, 7:02 PM ET *

https://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/The-FFFiles-Its-All-Been-a-Pack-of-Lies-187007

I think Movsar suffers from a case of fighting down to his opponent's level, and let's not forget Ige had a close one with Mirsad who is around Evloev's level but with more propensity to burst into flames.

Do agree that the line should be closer, but I think Evloev will come away with a close decision again.

He was -200 against dawodu and now he's -400 against ige. That makes no sense to me.

Herrig vs. Kowalkiewicz II
Felice Herrig, DEC
How the hell do you even pick this?

Yeah, you join myself and first AyyLmaonnaise posting that here.  Books are wise to it, as Menifield has ballooned to a -250 favorite.  Very happy I locked him in at -150.