UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Holly Holm should get this without any problems, I think she is better in all segments and she is not endangered anywhere. The only thing is that she entered 40+, so we don't know if that will affect her motor skills. But I think that both will fight for the center of the octagon and that Vieira will initiate a clinch from which he will not gain anything, but Holm will quickly come to a separation. I think Holm will turn it off after a few midkicks, because Vieira keeps her elbows too high and her body is an easy target.

Holly Holm RD2 KO TKO

Jailton Almeida future champ, my boy.

Jailton Almeida RD1 KO TKO

* Edited at 05.15.2022, 8:15 PM ET *

This guy said "she entered 40+, so we don't know if that will affect her motor skills." 

Lol acting like she's a 80 y/o with parkinson's, you don't just magically lose your locomotor skills at 40.

 And it's not "motor skills", it's Locomotor skills.

* Edited at 05.15.2022, 10:13 PM ET *

I'm seeing a lot of people picking Almeida by KO/TKO, I feel like he's gonna sub Porter right after he takes him down, I mean he was literally hunting submissions against Danillo (A very high level BJJ grappler in his own right) before ultimately just ground and pounding him. Porter has no where near the same level of BJJ experience as Danillo at least to my knowledge, definitely going to sprinkle some on the Almeida by sub prop 

* Edited at 05.16.2022, 12:01 AM ET *

Almeida via submission is my pick too. Unless Almeida completely folds him on the feet, he's definitely finding that sub.

70% are picking Medic over Omar Morales. How many times does AyyLmao need to tell you fools about Alaska FC? 

There's levels to this ****

* Edited at 05.16.2022, 1:04 AM ET *

Morales vs. Medic
Omar Morales, TKO, R2
Levels

Kind of expecting all of the favorites to win this fight with the exception of Viana b/c of her experience. For Elise Reed, I had a hard time picking her last fight and ended up picking McKenna b/c I think team Alpha Male is one of the best gyms in the country, but this fight between Reed and Hughes is going to probably be ugly (for Hughes).

Holm vs. Vieira
Holly Holm, DEC
Don't give 2 ****s about this fight, But I take Holm because Holm have good takedown Defence and she the better boxer

Ponzinibbio vs. Pereira
Michel Pereira, DEC
Banger, Best fight on the card, I like what Pereira doing and Ponzi has look pretty mid as of late

Njokuani vs. Todorović
Chidi Njokuani, TKO, R1
Pretty straight forward fight, Chidi sleep hand down, Long neck Dusco

Viana vs. Ricci
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
I think RIcci win because I think she will win the wresling, Vianna is more of a "power bottom and I think Ricci top game will seal the win. P.s Both girl are hot

Anders vs. Park
Jun Yong Park, DEC
I'm not high on Eryk, I take Park just because I don't think Eryk is that great, Darren Stewart and Vinusius Morria are his only clear win in a while, So you know the level he at, He lost to GM3 but the judges gave it to him

Holmes vs. Amedovski
Joseph Holmes, TKO, R1
I say Picket on a little run right now, So Holmes losing to him is bad, But isn't that bad. But getting slept by John Philips is also a bad lock

Porter vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R2
I'm taking Almeda as I do think he specal, But i'm not -700 confident just because Almeda is fighting 205-ver while Porter cut weight to make heavyweight, Also Almeda was suspose to fight Grisham on the card so it not like he bulk up to make the division

Morales vs. Medic
Omar Morales, DEC
Fade Alaskin FC

Martinez vs. Morales
Jonathan Martinez, DEC
Shoudl Martinez just do the same thing Chris Guiterez did and just kick him lots????

Hooper vs. Colares
Felipe Colares, DEC
Why are 63% of people picking Hooper, He's sucks, He was down 2-0 before getting a comeback win over Peter Barrett, And also lost to Steven Peterson, I say Felipe Colliers is UFC level, He beat a few guys and went to a split with Chris Guiterez and I think Guiterez is pretty good

Reed vs. Hughes
Elise Reed, DEC
I don't know if I ever seen Reed fight before, And I don't care enough to check if I did, I take Reed though because I know Hughes isn't that good

Hey bro, I am still solidifying who to bet on this week. I will be trying to do some tape study to clear up some questions I have in my mind.

Just a few points I am worried about. A few suggestions for parlays below (though use your discretion!)

1. Reed Vs Hughes
I think on the feet Reed is much better than Hughes but she is not going to be able to get Hughes out of there so this will very probably be a decision. The one thing I am worried about is if Hughes wrestles and gets takedowns and controls Reed on the ground. I don't think Reed has good take down defence from memory. So need to look at a few fights between these two. Over 2.5 should be a good bet here.

2. Almeida Vs Porter
Almedia is the better fighter. Absolutely no doubt. But Porter is much bigger and heavier. I think one of Porters main advantages at HW is that he is fast and durable. But coming up from LHW Almeida should be faster and better on the feet. My only concern is that Almeida who will try to get it to the ground will be facing a bigger guy with some level of wrestling/grappling and good cardio. I don't think Almeida has gone past R2 in many fights and could his gas tank fade at a higher weight class trying to take down a heavy opponent. If he can't get it done in R1/2 it could be trouble and at those odds I am not going to bite. Looking at the over 1.5 here but not a bet I am certain about at all.

3. Morales Vs Medic
I think Medic is clearly the better striker. But his chin and cardio are questions and Morales could wrestle and grapple a lot here. In fact I am sure he will. Medics take down defence did not look good and he could gas out faster if he is forced to scramble on the ground a lot. I think the fight to not go the distance is a good bet here.

4. Holmes Vs Amedovski
I really really hate that I am going to pick and bet Holmes here. But I am, and I am actually going to bet Holmes heavily. On the ground it should be a shut out. And maybe the short notice nature of Holme's last fight could have hurt him against Pickett who is ****.

5. Anders Vs Park
This should be a close fight. Park should have more volume but less power on the feet than Anders and will definitely have good cardio. Wrestling wise I think whoever takes the top will grind it out. Not quite sure who that is but for now I am taking the guy with the better cardio who has a good durability. The weight cut could compromise Anders as well. I think over 1.5 should be a good bet here. I think the odds are just silly here, its a close one.

6. Viana Vs Ricci
I think I am beginning to agree with your pick and maybe looking at picking Ricci instead. Viana is decent on the feet and is a good opportunistic submission artist, but Ricci is probably better with take downs and should be good at controlling position on top. Maybe Ricci is the way to go here. Need to watch a few fights before I decide. I think I heard Bisping say Ricci trains with Dern. That is a definite positive imo

5. 

* Edited at 05.16.2022, 5:11 AM ET *

Parlay suggestions - Have not bet any yet as lines are not out in my part of the world

1. Holly Holmes
Joseph Holmes
Reed/Hughes o2.5
Collares
Medic/Morales FTNGD

2. Holly Holmes/Vieira over 3.5
Chidi KO
Anders/Park o1.5
Periera/Ponzinibbio o1.5

3. Joseph Holmes
Chidi/Dusko FTNGD
Collares
Reed/Hughes o2.5

4. Riskier parlay - maybe for a smaller amount?
Holly Holmes Decision
Pereira Dec
Martinez (or over 1.5)
Porter/Almeida to start R2
Medic/Morales FTNGD
Hughes Dec or Ricci Dec


I think most of these legs are good to mix and match as definitely some will not hit. Also thinking of betting Martinez Money line, Hooper/Collares o1.5 (Can't see Hooper submitting a good BJJ black belt in Collares early or Collares finishing Hooper early). 

* Edited at 05.16.2022, 5:02 AM ET *

I honestly don't hate the idea of Holm finishing Ketlen despite the fight likely going the distance. Holm looked different against Aldana, hunting the finish multiple times. I think she could overwhelm Vieira, possibly.

I wouldn’t worry too much about almeida vs porter. The only difference there is gonna be weight and even then it’s not going to be that bad as almeida is around 235-245 outside of camp. The only reason almeida isn’t a HW is because of weight; look at his frame, he’s gonna be bigger than porter in reach and height. Plus, he’s a physical specimen. I don’t think the weight advantage will have any difference whatsoever and I think almeida smashes him with ease. Like that’s just so crazy that almeida is a 205’er but will be the bigger guy in every category besides weight 

Also I think Holmes is total **** but I do think part of the reason he gassed out so bad was because he took the Pickett fight on short notice. Amedovski has 0 ground game and 0 takedown defense so Holmes should be able to work his ground game with ease. Amedovski shouldn’t be anywhere near a major mma promotion;he’s not even good enough for PFL 

And finally, Ricci may be green but she’s a decently high level black belt. Don’t see her getting subbed by Polyana + I really hate that she has a loss to Veronica Macedo; that has aged very poorly. However, all of viana’s wins are against girls with about the same skill level as ricci. Very hard fight to pick but I’m leaning viana because she has a gigantic reach advantage (6 inches) and is 4 inches taller than her

Amedovski might have better wins then holmes idk

Reed vs. Hughes
Elise Reed, DEC
We're 45 erect 445 ewe we were e45 6 we 54 55ee5eee55e54e45eeeeee5ee5eee55e5~5 4e55e5e4ee5eeee554ee555e55e54ee55e5ee5e55e555ee55ee5ee5e545e5e5ee5weee5545e5ee5e5e5e55e5e5e5e5ee45ee5e55e5e5e5e55e555e5555eee555e55555e55555e55555555e555e5555eeeee5e4e4e5e5e5e55e55e4e454w45eee45e445e5e5w55ee5e55555ee5e55ee5e5e55e455e55e5e445e4ee5e4e4e5e55ee5555e5e55eee45e5weee45e5e5e5ee5e5~e 5e4ee554554e4e4e45ee5e4e545e5e5e5e5e5e55eeqw5e4e5e5e5e5e5e445eee4ee5ee55ee45eee555e5e5ee4e5ewe5e5e4ee544ee44ee4we46

Thanks man I'm thinking of doing a chidi/holm/almedia parlay but the one im most worried about is almedia if he can't finish porter I can see him gassing out but Chris daukaus isn't that big of a heavyweight either. You should start a ufc predictions page on YouTube dude. Over 70% prediction rate is crazy good 

Nice footwork by Ricci, nice camera work by the cameraman.