UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

maybe if the opponent is gina mazany or ribas. like those are the only 2 wmma fighters that get tkod often

true 

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* Edited at 05.20.2022, 12:17 PM ET *

Btw why are weigh ins this late if the card is early?

I apologize for the lack fo detail compared to my usual breakdowns. I cant watch the card this week so i didnt really watch tape for a bunch of fights nor do i really care about 90% of the matchups on this card so it was hard for me to find interest 

Joseph Holmes vs Alen Amedovski 

Holmes SUB RD 1 

God this fight sucks and as crazy as it sounds to say, Im pretty confident in holmes. He couldnt have had a worse debut and proved hes **** when he struggled badly with jamie pickett. He gassed out badly in that fight and couldnt get it to the ground where he wanted, but, he should get an easy win here against one of the worst fighters on the roster in Alen. Alen is first round ko or bust and even then hes not good at getting that ko as shown against john phillips. Alen is very easy to hit and his kos are only against low level guys (i found it shocking he got two wins in bellator). He throws straight punches and has no head movement so all you have to do is counter him and you will have success; this should be pretty easy considering ugly man is taller and has a longer reach than him. Alen has no tdd or ground game either so even though joe sucks at getting the fight to the ground, he should have no problem here. 

Jailton Almeida vs Parker Porter 

Almeida SUB RD 1 

This is another one where im not understanding peoples concerns whatsoever. Do you guys really think the fat can who couldnt finish alan “lost 4 in a row” baudot and even lost a round to him will finish almeida if the fight gets extended? Guys, baudot is a known gasser and porky couldnt finish him so what is he gonna be able to do if almeida gasses (which he wont because hes gonna finish him with ease)? I know Almeida has weighed in at 203 in his last two fights but hes literally outright said he enjoys fighting at HW and plans to do so in the future because he doesnt have to cut weight. ******* look at the dude, hes a phsycial specimen and it wouldnt shock me if he only weighs 20-30 lbs less than porky. Not to mention, the only advantage porky has is his fat rolls, as almeida is bigger in both the height and reach. The only good thing I can say about porky is hes high volume (doesnt carry good power at all for a HW tho) and has good cardio despite being so obese. Almedia is going to take him down and do whatever he wants to him in the first round; ko or sub. Also, almeida isnt cutting weight so I highly doubt he gasses here if for some godforsaken reason he doesnt finish it right away. 

Omar Morales vs Uros Medic 

Morales KO RD 1 

LOL cmon guys, the majority of you really think uros will win? Have you guys not learned from the last alaska fc fighter you guys made the favorite? I dont care how flashy uros looks, he is not a ufc caliber fighter. I can see how he could win this fight but it just seems highly unlikely to me. Morales has stood in front of far better strikers like giga chikadze (Uros couldnt even dream of being on the same striking level of giga) and survived so what is a can crusher going to do to him? I think people are forgetting that morales is a kickboxer too; and arguably accomplished more than uros has as he was a venezuelan kickboxing champ (whatever that means). And thats why I think Morales will ko him. You see the 5 subs on his record and think hes a bjj guy (i mean he does have a pretty good ground game) but morales is a pure striker. I think he will be able to give problems to uros and hes got pretty deceptive power. If he wants, he could easily take down uros and sub him as uros’s tdd is nonexistent, but, i think thats unlikely as he has only attempted 2 takedowns in the ufc. Uros doesnt have any ground game either; the only move he knows how to do is a kneebar so its pretty easy to avoid. I dont trust his gas tank either tho; hes only been to a second round once and im sure after one round of heavy striking, if morales hasnt already koed him, then he will gas out and get koed (or subbed too i suppose). You are all silly for picking uros. 

Jonathan Martinez vs Vince Morales 

Morales KO RD 1 

SO hear me out. Jonathan Martinez has made tremendous improvements as a fighter; he went from getting sonned by andre “the can” soukhamthath to looking like a legit top 15 talent. He has tremendously improved his takedown defense (i dont think hes been taken down in his last 7 fights or something crazy like that) which helps him keep the fight where he wants. Martinez has a great standup game and uses all of his weapons well. Leg kicks, jabs, head kicks, and his best move, the step-in knee. His knee is very dangerous because his long frame allows him to throw it effortlessly and without any telegraphing. Hes gotten two people with it thus far and it has proven to be a very effective weapon. However, Martinez’s biggest hole in his game is his bad chin. The weight cut is clearly taxing on his chin and it has cost him before and almost cost him his last fight. I really really dont trust that chin here. Morales showed me up last time when he became the first person to ko smolka and I think hes going to do it here; hes very underrated. He should be 4-2 in the ufc and has very slick boxing. He also has a wrestling background but never uses it (not that it would really matter here because martinez has outstanding tdd). Being a boxer, morales has shown a weakness to leg kicks before as we saw against chris gutierrez, so that could be a legit path to victory for martinez, but idk I just have this weird feeling about this fight. Its completely intangible but even outside the ufc, martinez hasnt won more than two fights in a row for the past 7 years. Whether it be from a dq (matt schnell), a robbery (andre ewell), or just a straight up loss (davey grant) he has just been unable to win more than two in a row. Pair that with his suspect chin and i think we’re looking at a morales ko upset here. I really think vince is an underrated fighter. I do agree, he has some very bad losses and performances, but I genuinely think hes an underrated fighter. Martinez is by far the better fighter here but I think morales will pull off an upset. 

Chase Hooper vs Felipe Colares 

Colares DEC 

Idk what to think of this one really. Both these fighters are absolutely abysmal. Hooper has some skills but he should not be in the ufc; he wasnt ready during his first appearance on dwcs and hes still not ready as shown in this ufc run. He could at least benefit himself by putting on some muscle, and I maybe thought he would have done so in this camp, but nope, still built like a stick. Its problematic because thats why hes not having tons of success in the ufc. Fighters can just bully him because hes not physically strong. Hes got a good bjj game but he can easily be reversed or you can outmuscle his takedowns and end up on top of him. Bjj however is hoopers only strength. He doesnt have power and his striking technique (and subsequent striking defense) is pretty much nonexistent. I will say tho, chase can take a punch. His opponent isnt much better. Colares has to be one of the worst fighters on the roster skill for skill. Its really hard to find what he does well because he really doesnt excel in any area. His striking is ****, his cardio is **** (although hes not cutting as much weight at 145 so that should help), his wrestling is ****, and his bjj is ****. However, I think he has a good enough understanding of bjj to not get subbed by hooper. All hooper does is spastically spam imanari rolls like a ****** ryan hall so as long as colares isnt a dumbass (oh yeah, his fight iq sucks too) he should be fine. I probably have to give the striking advantage to colares just because he does have some technique although hooper is going to be much bigger and taller than him. His wrestling is pretty **** but he should be able to have success being the smaller guy and factoring in that hooper just doesnt have good tdd anyways. I could see colares losing this but he realistically shouldnt. 

Elise Reed vs Sam Hughes 

Reed DEC 

I think this is going to look identical to hughes last fight; she will be outclassed in the striking but has a legit path to victory in her wrestling. However, unlike her last fight, Reed has a better gas tank and ever-so-slightly better takedown defense (its still not good). I personally dont think reed is a bad fighter but shes pretty green for being in the ufc. I find it hard to find things that hughes is actually good at. She is able to survive a lot of fights because she is tough but unfortunately, being tough doesnt win you fights. I think she will likely wrestle more in this fight but then again she only wrestled nunes in the last two rounds. If she wants to win, she will have to wrestle every round because reed is not going to gas out like nunes did. However, Reed has beaten far better wrestlers (Jasmine Jasudavicius for example who is also held a gigantic size advantage over the former atomweight) so I really dont see this being a problem for her. We did see her struggle badly with takedown defense against sijara eubanks but i really dont blame her for that as it was a short notice fight and sijara probably weighed 15-20 lbs heavier than her. Also, Istela nunes has a pathetically bad ground game and tdd and she was able to fend off 60% of hughes takedowns so i dont think she will have a lot of trouble here.

Holly Holm vs Kelten Viera 

Holm DEC 

Yeah im gonna be fully transparent, I didnt watch tape for this one and i dont care to. My only concern is holm’s age and inactivity but she should be fine everywhere else. You can have success being old in wmma and holly is in fantastic shape for 40 so i dont see this being a problem. Ketlen sucks and had a competitive fight with washed miesha tate so shes not gonna have succes here. Holm has her beaten everywhere and maybe she gets a ko idk. Dont give af about this fight 

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Michel Pereira 

Ponzinibbio KO RD 3 

I do agree with tapology that ponzi has been on the decline since his got sidelined for three years, but i still think hes got something left in the tank. I dont blame him too much for that most recent loss as it was razor thin and could have gone either way (i personally had it for ponzi but that wasn't a robbery in any sense of the word). This honestly seems like a bad matchup for pereira, hear me out. Sure, Pereira’s cardio has improved and as he moves up the ranks, he's started to move away from the flashy backflips and whatnot (although they are obviously still present in his game) but I didn't like his new strategy of starting off slow and then heating up as the fight goes on. Unlike Fialho, ponzi has much more to offer on the feet than being a low volume, power puncher and he loves to turn every fight into a brawl (although that last fight was very underwhelming but lets be honest, no way this doesnt turn into a brawl). I see ponzi putting on the pressure right away and if pereira starts off slow again, hes going to have a rough time getting things going because, despite the age and clearly slowing down, ponzi can still push a high pace and also thrives in the brawling. I dont see this brawling style ending well for pereira’s gas tank either because ponzi is not going to give him breathing room. Pereira has started to implement his ground game more too but im not sure if he will oblige in using it here as they will probably want to put on a show. 

Chidi Njokuani vs Dusko Todorovic 

Chidi KO RD 1 

I dont trust Dusko’s striking defense here. Hes not a bad striker in his own right and he carries a ton of power (i mean he koed michel pereira lol) but hes not really that good of a fighter. He has a bjj black belt anf some wrestling but he is horrendous at getting the fight to the ground (9% tda). Chidi is a beast; he is big for the division and has a great muay thai background. Also carries a ton of power and I was shocked to see him floor MAB in the way he did. Watching his old fights, he struggles on the ground and his cardio is pretty bad to the point where he has quit in a lot of his fights, but, he seems to have made improvements in both those areas as his tdd has looked improved and his gas tank as well. 

Polyana Viana vs Tabatha Ricci 

Ricci DEC 

Yeah idrk who wins this one and ive been back and forth the whole week with who wins. Ricci isnt a bad fighter but is very green imo and viana is pretty garbage but has more ufc experience. On the feet, viana is going to be massive as she is 4 inches taller and has a whopping 6 inches of reach. I dont think ricci’s stirking is the best anyways so this is concerning but I think she will win because of her wrestling. Viana has good bjj but is far too content to lie on her back. Unlike the opponents who shes beaten, ricci actually has bjj knowledge and is quite accomplished in that area as well, so I dont see viana getting a sub. I also really cant get past the fact that she ot subbed by veronica macedo; that is just such a horrible, horrible loss (same with losing to hannah cifers). Ricci hasnt beaten anyone of note but I think this should be a good win for her. Either way, the fans win this one because ricci is fine as hell. 

Eryk Anders vs Junyong Park 

Park DEC 

Here is yet another fight where I’m not really seeing how the underdog wins. I mean, i get how he can win but i dont think hes going to have much success. The easiest way to beat park is to aggressively wrestle him and sure, anders can wrestle decently but being fully confident in him to impose it is a gamble because he is so wildly inconsistent with his wrestling. Sometimes he will dominate like when he fought santos and took him down 6 times or when he notched 3 takedowns against machida but then he will struggle to get cans down like darren “dip****” stewart where he went 0-4 in their second fight despite having easy success in the first fight. And yes, parks tdd is **** but hes only ever really been abused on the ground by good wrestlers, which anders is not. Obama had success against park in his last outing but he is a good wrestler and has a high level bjj game and fluffy had loads of success (and arguably wrote the blueprint to beating park) in the wrestlin but again, hes a far better wrestler than anders + his whole style is to break you with relentless pressure and takedowns. On the feet, I would give a power advantage to anders but the technique to park; hes got quite a decent kickboxing background and is high volume as well. It wouldnt genuinely shock me if anders was somehow able to ko park. Again, I have to give the wrestling advantage to anders but no idea how well hes going to be able to impose it + park is a solid offensive wrestler in his own right. Theres also the level of competition between the two, sure, anders is fighting the better guys but he cant beat them and look who his wins are: Darren Dip**** (no longer in ufc), Vinicius moriera (no longer in ufc also one of the worst fighters in recent history), meerschaert (great win but it was a robbery. Also getting outstruck by a BJJ guy LOL), and then three nobodies who arent in the ufc anymore. Park has beaten higher quality opponents (except for john phlipps lol) and I think hes just the better fighter. Also, anders is getting up there in age so I dont really trust him. 

Thoughts on this parlay?

Holmes by KO/Sub/DQ        +100
Morales/Medic Under 2.5     -175
Njokuani by KO/Sub/DQ      +100
____________________________

+528

not terrible

Waiting for Medic, Amedovski and the two heavyweights. I dont understand heavyweights cut weight as well?

HWs almost always weigh in last. No idea why. Doesn’t surprise me the two cans haven’t weighed in 


Nvm Uros made weight as I was typing this

I thought once you weighed in it was mandatory that you had to stick around until after weigh ins are final. Medical checks and what not. If that is the case the HW's come last cause most arent cutting much if any weight and dont want to sit around there with nothing to do and wait until its over. The smaller guys who come immediately use that wait time to rehydrate so they dont mind the wait.  

He did? Damn mmajunkie must have delay both on audio and video. 

I’m mean jailton literally said in his pre fight interview that he’s not cutting any weight so not sure what the hold up is 

@gilese yeah I just saw on Twitter but usually the stream is delayed 

Especially on fight night cards when they hold the faceoffs 2 hours after weigh ins. Maybe they have to stick around for that. If so why be there 4 hours when you only gotta be there for 2 hours 

Medic was shown weighing in on MMAWeekly's stream minutes ago, he still hasn't been shown on MMAJunkies supposed livestream what the **** are they doing lol?

Amedovski hasn't weighed in either unless that's another one MMAJunkie missed.

Anders looked awful

Nope haven’t gotten any notifications. Wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if he misses weight. He’s barely a fighter as it is 

Also parker porky made weight, tf is jailton?

@tosh ya he really did. Looked like a skeleton