Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera

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Tapology
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01.19.2022 | 7:43 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 04.30.2022 at 04:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN | Prelims: ESPN 2
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC APEX
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Dominick Cruz, Michael Bisping
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Michael Bisping
  • TV Ratings: 830,000 avg. viewers (274k ESPN prelims)
  • MMA Bouts: 11
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Marlon Vera   defeats   Rob Font   via Decision, Unanimous   5 Rounds, 25:00 Total Bout Page
Andrei Arlovski   defeats   Jake Collier   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Joanderson Brito   defeats   Andre Fili   via KO/TKO, Punches   0:41 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Grant Dawson   defeats   Jared Gordon   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   4:11 Round 3 of 3, 14:11 Total Bout Page
Darren Elkins   defeats   Tristan Connelly   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Krzysztof Jotko   defeats   Gerald Meerschaert   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Alexandr Romanov   defeats   Chase Sherman   via Submission, Americana   2:11 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Francisco Figueiredo   defeats   Daniel Lacerda   via Submission, Kneebar   1:18 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Gabe Green   defeats   Yohan Lainesse   via KO/TKO, Punches   4:02 Round 2 of 3, 9:02 Total Bout Page
Natan Levy   defeats   Mike Breeden   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Shanna Young   defeats   Gina Mazany   via KO/TKO, Punches and Elbows From Back Mount   3:11 Round 2 of 3, 8:11 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 11

Lisac
Lisac
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04.28.2022 | 1:37 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 500 Points   |   Tied for 357th

Why are people so high on Tatsuro? Checked a few of his fights and he seems really hittable and mostly fought midgets
This user is suspended from posting until 9 years, 2 months, 2 weeks, 5 days, and 8 minutes from now.
hlgh
hlgh
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04.28.2022 | 1:49 AM ET

Fili vs Brito

Predictions: 4 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 275 Points   |   Tied for 3129th

Scary part for me as a bettor and knowing things like this is where ******y lies...

-17/17 of the youtuber handicappers (I watch so many of them and I've now started a spreadsheet and will start recording their picks), have Fili. 

-Tapology has Fili (89% to 11% and it's the nature of the public favorites that lose here on Tapology more often than not, I also record and note this stat).

-The world has Fili 

-Fili's strength of schedule is so much better than Brito's, it's insane. Yet the odds are what they are...Again, nothing adding up here.

Typically when all goes one way and then you see the odds actually going the OPPOSITE way, the red alarms and bells go off in my head. Fili according to the public and people talking, should be a -300 and possibly growing...

For all these reasons, the fight is that much more intriguing to me and I would be careful as a bettor backing Fili so confident as there's a lot of signs that look bad for the fight.

* Edited at 04.28.2022, 3:01 AM ET *

"Youtube capper splits sheets avaliable in Twitter bio."

hlgh
hlgh
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04.28.2022 | 1:54 AM ET

@Lisac

Predictions: 4 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 275 Points   |   Tied for 3129th

Honestly you could be right, but for 3 rounds, Candelario doesn't seem to have pop on his punches (hard for him to as it's 125lbs, not much to expect in terms of power at that weight).

So if the fight is going 3 rounds, that gives Tatsuro more time to pull of his win condition, which seems to be a sub. Just my opinion from watching tape and going over the fight.

I personally played Tatsuro by SUB/DEC and I have a seperate bet with Candelario by DEC @ +400 that will cover and also make me some $.

Candelario by DEC + Mazany and Tatsuro by SUB/DEC + Mazany is my first play of the night that will either cash or flop. Obviously using Mazany as my main leg here, hoping she comes through.

* Edited at 04.28.2022, 2:04 AM ET *

"Youtube capper splits sheets avaliable in Twitter bio."

Yasserali
Yasserali
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04.28.2022 | 2:04 AM ET

hlgh

Great observation, rare to see people understand the game like this. Just like mike - berry fight last weekend that i evaded.
Watch for the signs đŸ€ŁđŸ€Ł
hlgh
hlgh
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04.28.2022 | 2:21 AM ET

@Yasserali

Predictions: 4 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 275 Points   |   Tied for 3129th

I actually called that one as well, on the fact that when you paid attention to bestfightodds, books took SHARP action 10-15 minutes before the fight on Mike Jackson.

When I seen that, I threw a $10 slip on him for ****s trying to follow some good ol ******y!! And what'd ya know...

"Youtube capper splits sheets avaliable in Twitter bio."

DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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04.28.2022 | 2:36 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points   |   Tied for 2136th

I will say on Tatsuro Taira, Statically asian fighter don't really do well in the UFC, Only very few  Asian fighter really succeed in the UFC 


* Edited at 04.28.2022, 2:39 AM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

Yasserali
Yasserali
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04.28.2022 | 3:02 AM ET

hlgh

And you nailed it 👌. every now and then a fight like this pops up out of nowhere.
Anal*******
Anal*******
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04.28.2022 | 5:05 AM ET

lmao

Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 2493rd

such a ****** card. Legitimately feel sorry for anybody who wastes their weekend watching this piss dribble of a card full of bad matchups and no name value. All these cards have been watered down af lately. Horrible decisions as well. We've currently got a sitting champion who should have 2 L's to Petr Yan 
This sport is dying

* Edited at 04.28.2022, 5:12 AM ET *

This user is suspended from posting until 8 years, 7 months, 1 week, 2 days, and 44 minutes from now.
Baldric Eggling
Baldric Eggling

04.28.2022 | 5:26 AM ET

Predictions: 4 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 250 Points   |   Tied for 3272nd

^ accurate. Cards have been garbage lately.
DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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04.28.2022 | 5:35 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points   |   Tied for 2136th

This card isn’t that bad, it a decent card, The main event is one of the better main event in a while, Chito is one of the best fighter to watch and font pretty cool too

And your still *****ing about Yan losing, let it go, it was 3 weeks ago, this is the reason why I Aljamain Sterling **** post, Yan fans like this who get mad,

Also, Sterling vs Yan 2 was a close ass fight, don’t get the crying about a decsion where the deciding round between the too, Yan got outstuck 19 to 12, don’t care if you think Yan won, just stop your crying on Yan clearly winning when it was in fact a close ass fight witch Sterling edged

"Quack quack quack"

Vasilis_Milan
Vasilis_Milan
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04.28.2022 | 7:49 AM ET

Nevermind

Predictions: 2 of 3 Winners, 0 Perfect, 115 Points   |   Tied for 3572nd

One reason I am watching ufc is to learn about fighters. It helps me to earn money on betting.
Right now, I am on a 15 winning streak on my picks.
So bad card or good card...I am going to watch it anyway 

* Edited at 04.28.2022, 7:50 AM ET *

magestratu
magestratu
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04.28.2022 | 8:14 AM ET

Predictions: 1 of 3 Winners, 1 Perfect, 75 Points   |   Tied for 3606th

Vasilis, what are your thoughts on Elkins Connely fight ?
JReynolds47
JReynolds47
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04.28.2022 | 9:04 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 555 Points   |   Tied for 111th

Tatsuro should win here. Im not betting it. But his opponent dosent deserve this shot. 

"Jarno Errens, Damir Hadzovic"

gliese58i
gliese58i
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04.28.2022 | 9:29 AM ET

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 325 Points   |   Tied for 2638th

I was looking to fade Tatsuro because I think his strength of schedule is very weak, mostly japanese fighters with an average winrate of 60%.

Candelarios opponents has an average winrate of 74%. Of the ones he beat (he has 1 loss to Altamirano in his last outing at contender series) they have an average of 70% winrate.

The problem is the eye test does favor Tatsuro whereas Candelario doesn't look that special to me. Tatsuro is hittable and his output on the feet is low but he seems to have some decent skills in all departments. If he was only a striker with no grappling I would be all over Candelario but as it is I'll watch and see if there's a livebetting spot.

Like was said, most asian fighters don't fare well in the UFC and it might be a onesided loss for Tatsuro but he might also dominate the fight. Very hard to make a call when fighters are from different regions like this. Also Tatsuro is 22 years old and I think he's fighting outside of Japan for the first time professionally? On the other hand he looks very calm and collected at all times in the cage.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

gliese58i
gliese58i
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04.28.2022 | 9:31 AM ET

@hlgh

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 325 Points   |   Tied for 2638th

I have a bet on Brito (+240) for what it's worth and have Fili to win on Tapology. It was the line that immediately stood out to me as the most sus when I first reviewed the card.

* Edited at 04.28.2022, 9:32 AM ET *

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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04.28.2022 | 9:36 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 405 Points   |   Tied for 1538th

I trust that the ufc signed him because they like what they see out of him. If he was some regional bum that they signed to showcase a regions skills (like they did for 261 with Chinese fighters or the Asian tournament theyre doing) then I would be worried but they just signed him straight up so they have to see something on him. Plus, if you really get into it, both their competition sucks if we’re being honest. Candelarios two best wins have came on the contender series while taira is at least fighting many fight vets and people with winning records 

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

Twitchwalker
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04.28.2022 | 9:51 AM ET

TRYING MY BEST

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 370 Points   |   Tied for 2123rd

ok so to start off how is arlovski still fighting and well non the less.... moving on.

green vs lainesse
GREEN by late take over i see lainesse starting strong and fading.

mazzany vs young
MAZZANY is just way too physical and has faced better opposition i think she may be able to bully young and control the fight.

candelario vs taira
CANDELARIO but buy this is scary we have no good comparison, history says the american wrestler will win and have a style advantage here.

"SAY WHAT YOU MEAN, MEAN WHAT YOU SAY"

Tieoken
Tieoken
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04.28.2022 | 10:02 AM ET

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 315 Points   |   Tied for 2723rd

If Green was a natural welterweight I would take him in this fight all day and all night. But while his chin has shown improvements without the weight cut, he's been massively undersized in all of his welterweight bouts.  Granted both D-Rod and Rowe are larger welterweights, but so is Lainesse. We shall see, if it goes past the 6 minute mark Green will most likely catch a sub, but Lainesse is certaintly live for KO early. 

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

gliese58i
gliese58i
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04.28.2022 | 10:03 AM ET

@AyyLmaonnaise

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 325 Points   |   Tied for 2638th

It's easy to look good when you fight opponents that are older and less skilled than you. My read on him is that he's a guy that favors technical clean striking on the feet and that he might be in trouble if he's put against an aggressive brawler/wrestler. But he does have some grappling skills himself for sure.

I don't think Candelario will break his win streak but we'll see.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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04.28.2022 | 10:16 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 405 Points   |   Tied for 1538th

It’s tough because this is a bad stylist matchup for candelario. His tdd is so bad and I’m pretty sure taira will be able to get him down at will

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

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