UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Making me feel better @Rusty. I rewatched the contenders fights for Altamirano and Hernandez, I feel like Altamirano gets got swaying in combinations, and all Hernandez throws are combos. That plus the BJJ fit ins made me change my mind.

Hernandez is one of my biggest plays of the card bro.

Like I said this card is really tough to pick so I can't say I am super confident about any pick here except Makhachev but I think Hernandez is one of my most confident. I never like picking any fighter who will stay on their back when taken down, another reason why I also like Tsarukyan over Alvarez.

I hope we are both right! 

Altamiranos tdd is ******* terrible. Wayyyyyyy too content to low on his back in guard the whole time. Has surpr good wrestling but doesn’t care if he gets taken down which is a seriously liability 

* Edited at 02.26.2022, 10:37 AM ET *

I said Islam SUB R3 a couple days ago but **** it, Islam DEC.

Makhachev vs. Green
Islam Makhachev, SUB, R1
Grappling is a huge difference maker in this matchup.

Tsarukyan vs. Alvarez
Joel Alvarez, TKO, R2
Alvarez’s set of skills will be too diverse for Arman to handle. I see Alvarez as a future champ.

Rodrigues vs. Petrosyan
Gregory Rodrigues, DEC
Rookies always are expected to not last long and then actually put up a fight and lose a decision.

Bahamondes vs. Rong
Zhu Rong, DEC
I feel that Bahamondes will gas throwing wild stuff and Rong will grind out a decision.

Nunes vs. Pascual
Josiane Nunes, TKO, R1
Nunes round 1 sleep 🌙

McKinney vs. Ziam
Terrance McKinney, DEC
FINALLY!!!!!!

Perez vs. Martinez
Alejandro Perez, DEC
Martinez gasses.

Brahimaj vs. Gillmore
Ramiz Brahimaj, SUB, R2
Brahimaj’s tank is questionable especially coming in on short notice.

Altamirano vs. Hernandez
Victor Altamirano, DEC
I’ve been waiting for this for a long time. War Victor!

Makhachev vs. Green
Islam Makhachev, DEC
bobby is gonna test islam's striking and entries, but ultimately i don't think he cares about winning so he's gonna give up rounds trying to counter and showboat.

Cirkunov vs. Turman
Wellington Turman, DEC
this one is a coin flip for me. gonna go with turman because i think this battle of grapplers will devolve into a sloppy kickboxing match and wellington seems to throw more.

Cachoeira vs. Kim
Priscila Cachoeira, DEC
should be a fun fight, neither girl cares at all about striking defense. but screw priscila and her dirty tactics, ufc should've cut her ass for what she did last time out. i'm gonna pick her and hope to be wrong so she can go back to getting regional paydays and think about what she did instead of being rewarded with a main card spot somehow.

Tsarukyan vs. Alvarez
Arman Tsarukyan, DEC
alvarez has proven that he truly belongs here, but i'm still high on arman's trajectory.

Rodrigues vs. Petrosyan
Gregory Rodrigues, DEC
was gonna say rodrigues obliges armen in a trading battle, but his past 2 fights say otherwise as he took down his opponent in almost every round. the ko loss to williams has me very skeptical though.

Bahamondes vs. Rong
Zhu Rong, DEC
initial thoughts were that there'd be a baha monday celebration at houlihan's, but now i'm thinkin fatboy ends up wrestling.

McKinney vs. Ziam
Fares Ziam, DEC
kinda surprised to see such a high % here for terrence. he has massive power, but fares has never been knocked out and figures to be the more technical fighter with better range. if he can stay mobile and survive r1, i think he can outscore in r2/3.

Perez vs. Martinez
Jonathan Martinez, DEC
competition-wise, advantage goes to perez, but it seems the oddsmakers & people here agree that martinez is gonna be able to track him down and get inside for td's.

Brahimaj vs. Gillmore
Ramiz Brahimaj, SUB, R2
all 9 of ramiz's wins via sub and 4/6 of micheal's (just realizing it's ea instead of ae, weird) losses are via sub, seems like an easy pick for an unhappy gillmore.

Altamirano vs. Hernandez
Victor Altamirano, DEC
altamirano seems to have consistently faced better competition and his only loss is to someone who can mma-wrestle pretty damn well so i can't fault him. seems like a lot of people here agree that the odds are off, that kinda scares me ha.

Makhachev vs. Green
Islam Makhachev, SUB, R2
Hope Bobby pulls it off but I dont think he does, He didn't really look too confident at weigh ins either.

Cirkunov vs. Turman
Misha Cirkunov, DEC
Split Dec 29-28, 30-27, 28-29

Cachoeira vs. Kim
Priscila Cachoeira, DEC
UDec 29-28x3

Tsarukyan vs. Alvarez
Arman Tsarukyan, DEC
Banger fight. split dec 29-28x2, 27-30

Rodrigues vs. Petrosyan
Gregory Rodrigues, DEC
2nd Round TKO Knees and Punches.

Bahamondes vs. Rong
Ignacio Bahamondes, TKO, R2
TKO Head Kick to Ground and pound finish.

Nunes vs. Pascual
Josiane Nunes, TKO, R1
Cage Strikes ref steps in. straights and hooks.

McKinney vs. Ziam
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R2
Uppercut from Hell.

Perez vs. Martinez
Jonathan Martinez, DEC
Split 29-28x2, 28-29

Brahimaj vs. Gillmore
Ramiz Brahimaj, DEC
UD 30-26x2, 30-27

Altamirano vs. Hernandez
Victor Altamirano, SUB, R2
RNC

Makhachev vs. Green
Islam Makhachev, SUB, R3
I would love to see Bobby Green knock this dude out. Not happening on short notice. Islam in 3

Gilmore with the upset win tonight KO bonus of the night. I mean why not odds are skewed and both low level MMA fighter, neither are UFC material to be honest.

I'm surprised how many people think Green is going to last until the end of round 5

Bahamondes vs Zhu 

Bahamondes DEC 

This is a super good fight between two really solid, unranked LWs. Zhu is an interesting fighter. he had one of the most underwhelming debuts ever, where he seemed more interested in taunting and hyping up the crowd than trying to win. then he fights Brandon Jenkins and absolutely mauls him. I like the experience, especially for the age and he also trains at ATT which is only gonna help. I like the striking from zhu and was definitely impressed with the wrestling, but I think Ignacio is just a step ahead of him. Now, its hard to be fully confident in Ignacio because his competition is almost as bad as zhu's, but ive been very impressed with him thus far. his tdd has been outstanding (which is going to be key here) as hes stuffed 17/17 attempts and is able to keep the fight where he wants, on the feet. Ignacios striking is something else; hes got a big reach because hes so big for LW and throws very high volume and flashy kicks and punches. I think hes the far better striker and im also not totally sure just how good zhu's wrestling is. yes, he rag dolled Jenkins, but Jenkins was also a short notice replacement from the regional scene so who knows how good he actually is at td defense. Im assuming zhu missed weight so that he could be bigger than Ignacio but im not sure thats going to be all that effective. if he does get Ignacio down, then he will be in trouble but I dont see it happening; Ignacio knows what hes doing with his tdd.

Nunes vs Pascual 

Nunes KO RD 1 

Interesting one here; I think I like this one more than the original. Pascual has some solid skills bu, like nunes, hasn't fought anyone good. actually, her competition is worse than nunes's; she's literally fought more 0-0 opponents than ones with winning records. However, her skills are decent. she's improved her striking from her older matches and picked up a nice key lock last year so she's working on her ground game. Like everyone nunes fights, Pascual is going to be giant compared to her and I also dont like that this fight is at 145 but oh well. On the feet, nunes doesn't exactly have crazy technique, but she's super high volume and has some crazy ko power for someone so small. I feel decently confident in nunes but its also low level wmma so cant be fully confident.

Ziam vs Mckinney 

Mckinney KO RD 1 

im kind of shocked ziam is the favorite. I know, theres a lot of unknowns about McKinney but im very impressed with what I see, while im not very impressed with what I see from Ziam. Sure, he is decently big for the division and has a good kickboxing background, but when you look into his ufc record, its hard to be impressed. First, he goes out against Madge and loses to the wrestling. then he fights mullarkey and even though he won the fight, most people thought he lost because, yet again, he didnt have an answer for the wrestling. Finally, he was winning 2-0 easily against Luigi vendramini and then got destroyed by wrestling almost forcing a draw. Now, I think McKinney can really beat him anywhere. on the feet, they have conflicting styles; ziam wants to play a slow paced, distance striking game while McKinney wants to rush in with explosiveness and take your head off. His power really is insane, I will say, I dont really like how he sometimes puts too much power into shots and over commits like his head kick against Gavino. I think the real X factor is McKinney's wrestling. most people dont realize, but McKinney is super talented at wrestling. hes fallen in love with his striking, but he was a wrestler before DWCS. if you watch his fight against Woodson, he was destroying him on the ground and Woodson is a very hard man to take down and control. you watch mckinneys takedowns and scrambles and hes just as fast and strong in his wrestling as he is with his striking. My one question is his cardio. with all these finishes you would think his cardio is terrible but he has said he spars 10 rounds in training so we will see. I really think he will beat Ziam easily; his record isn't that impressive and he could easily be 0-2-1 in the ufc.

Perez vs Martinez 

Martinez DEC 

This is a fight where when it was first announced, I was feeling really confident in perez but, after watching tape im pretty confident in Martinez. Perez was a former top 15 bw and has some really good wins on his record, but he took a long layoff and looked like **** against Johnny Eduardo. yes, he won the fight but he looked totally different. he was not fast at all and his style looked different. granted, that could be ring rust but still, getting outstruck by a 45 year old is not a good look; he was supposed to steamroll Eduardo not struggle with him on the feet. Then theres also the fact that Perez's camp requested this fight take place at 145, meaning perez probably had a tough weight cut. Thats not to say that perez won't be competitive, as he is still a skilled fighter, but not sure if hes the same fighter he was 3 years ago. I prefer to call him a basic fighter, but hes very good in the basics. his striking is solid and even though he doesn't use his wrestling, perez has a solid bjj game to boot. for Martinez, I feel like hes improving constantly. to look at his first fight compared to his last you can see all the improvements hes made; his striking has improved a lot and he uses his arsenal well. I really like his use of knees, as he was able to ko both Saenz and liu with knees; its very sneaky and hes able to throw it while barely telegraphing it. Even though perez will likely not shoot for a takedown, if he does he will likely have a hard time as Martinez's tdd has improved greatly; I think its 100% in his past 6 fights. Hes also going to have the better cardio; not sure how Perez's will hold up.

Brahimaj vs Gillmore 

Brahimaj SUB RD 1 

this is a weird one. its hard to be confident in ramiz because he is such a glass cannon but at the same time Gillmore is such a can. Ramiz has good grappling and has finished every win by sub, but he decides what fighting style he wants. against Sasha, he shot instantly, got the take down, and subbed him against ease, but against Mcgee and griffin he barely even made attempts and just stood with them. Now, against Gillmore he SHOULD be able to win on the feet but who knows. Ramiz's striking is pretty bad to the point where mcgee can out work him but he should be able to outstrike the can Gillmore. the very obvious path to victory is take him down and sub him. Gillmore has 0 grappling as we saw against petroski and on TUF. hes been subbed 3 times and has bad tdd. Ramiz should win easily but very low confidence here because he just goes into the octagon and decides to fight however he wants. he also never listens to his coach so thats great too.

Altamirano vs Hernandez 

Hernandez SUB RD 2

This is such a good fight to start off the card. Both these guys are super well rounded and bring a lot to the division. For victor, hes super high pace in anything he does. I like his striking a lot, as he moves around constantly and throws a lot of kicks due to his taekwandoe background. His wrestling is the one thing I dont like about him. offensively, he seems pretty good; hes able to notch takedowns a lot and knows how to defend yet he still gets taken down a lot, like to the point its concerning. he would rather get taken down and play in his guard than defend which I really dont like. he is a brown belt and has some decent sub game, but its not good enough where he can just pull guard and work from his back the entire time. The reason im picking hernandez by sub too is Altamirano has lost by RNC 4 times (1 pro and 3 as an ammy). For Hernandez, I really like the experience. he was 13-2 as an amateur and fought in IMMAF, which gives him a big experience edge over victor. I think hes also the better striker; for somebody with 0 ko's I was pretty impressed by his striking. hes got good technique and decent power, also likes to throw in a lot of leg kicks. Im not too sure how good his wrestling actually is; he went 0/8 on TDs against bare, but im not sure if he just sucks at wrestling or barez had outstanding tdd (im going with the latter as I think barez is ufc level). I was impressed by his get up game tho as when barez did take him down hernandez was able to get back up with relative ease. It will be interesting to see if hernandez can actually notch takedowns here because I think it will make the difference in the fight. I still lean hernandez in the stand up so even if he cant take him down I think he will have success.

Makhachev vs Green 

Green KO RD 4 

Im 99% sacrificing a pick here but idc cuz bobby is the goat. His path to winning is to keep it on the feet; now thats very, very much easily said than done but its the truth. on the feet bobby will win and thats just a fact. if you really think islam can beat him purely on the feet you're either severely ******** or are just an islam nutrider. now whats probably going to happen is bobby is going to strike for a little bit, taunt, and get taken down but hes got to give it his all on the feet because its not a guaranteed hes going to stay there the whole fight (its pretty much guaranteed he won't honestly). I do really like how he uses his movement and keeps his hands low. His constant movement could make it hard for islam to shoot because bobby isn't going to be giving him clean openings (at least I think, islam is a master at wrestling so he will probably find it) the hands low makes it easier to defend takedowns too but again, who knows how effective this is actually going to be. I know bobby doesn't have good ko power but, he has the timing down which I could see him catching islam with. for example, the al Iaquinta fight; al is very durable but bobby perfectly timed his strikes and folded him. I saw a comment somewhere saying bobby has basically mastered mma striking and I really think thats true; hes got some of the best striking in the division. Now, unlike most of islams opponents, bobby does have a wrestling background so he should fare better than say drew dober but it will get ugly for him on the ground for sure. again, basically sacrificing a pick here but idgaf because it would be so sweet if bobby wins. Also for all the islam fanboys, hes just not as dominant as Khabib, just stop the comparisons; there won't be another Khabib

Cirkunov vs Turman 

Cirkunov SUB RD 1 

such a **** co main. cirkunov is beyond washed but turman is one of the ****tiest fighters at MW. his striking isn't good (unfortunately its probably better than cirkunov's), the chin isn't terrible but its not great, and his bjj is super questionable for a black belt; I mean can you really trust anyone who got reversed 3 times by Karl Roberson? The way he wins this fight is by gassing cirkunov out; cirkunov already didnt have a great gas tank and cutting to MW doesn't exactly help his case. However, this fight is likely going to the ground and thats where I favor cirkonov. turman has 100% tdd but its very overblown because hes faced 3 total attempts. cirkunov is a pretty solid wrestler as you can see from his percentages and once he gets to the ground he is looking to finish the fight, not wet blanket you. yes, his wrestling was terrible against jotko but jotko actually has a good, tested 83% tdd. he was massive at LHW and is going to be far bigger than turman here. I know he can easily throw this fight but I really think turman loses here.

Cachoiera vs Kim 

Kim DEC 

Why on gods green earth is this on the main card. Im shocked coachoiera is even in the ufc but whatever. Cachoiera lives up to her nickname very well; she has some of the worst striking defense ive seen and just eats shots to give shots. I think its kind of shocking she has wins in the ufc but thats mostly because her wins are just cans who are somehow worse than her; Shana Dobson might be one of the worst chicks to enter the ufc and gina mazany was beating her until her gas tank gave out. One thing that annoys me about Kim is the ufc keeps giving her strikers with 0 ground game because she could easily win with grappling but hasn't even attempted a takedown in the ufc. this will literally be the third person in a row who is a pure striker with a weakness to wrestling; I guess those three subs from Kim are just misleading. on the feet, she's going to have a massive reach advantage and throws super high volume. I think this fight is going to be a lot like the mccann fight except cachoiera is much worse. she's just gonna stand there and trade with Kim the whole fight. hard to be confident in Kim because the fight iq is questionable but she should be able to pull through because Priscilla is really unimpressive; you just have to throw more than she does and you will win on damage because she doesn't block shots at all.

Tsaryukan vs Alvarez 

Alvarez KO RD 1 

This is such an unreal fight. I get the armen hype, I really do, but people are sleeping on Joel like crazy. I can totally see how he loses this fight but I like him too much as an underdog. arman has some high level grappling. his wrestling is super slick and he even took down islam with it. his striking is a work in progress but he got a really nice counter left ko last fight. My main concern for arman is how he deals with the size of Alvarez. Alvarez is ******* massive and is 8 inches taller with 4.5 inches of reach. I really like how hes leveled up his game; hes fallen in love with his striking and it looked nothing short of phenomenal against Moises. he uses his length to cut the distance against the opponent and swarm them with knees and elbows. hes surprisingly fast for someone so big and I like how he throws leg kicks to set up his combos. his elbows are ******* vicious and I really like how he uses his step in knee; because hes so big, hes able to throw knees by barely lifting them up so its a sneaky attack; could be good td "defense" against arman. Then theres his bjj game. So, Alvarez just gives up takedowns and prefers to get subs because he knows how dangerous he is there. Now, we saw this backfire bad against damir ismagulov, but he hasn't had problems with it since. I could definitely see arman repeating the same thing but at the same time I can also see him getting subbed on a takedown. Thats the scary thing about Alvarez, he has a very well rounded skillset and is not trying to go to decision; he is trying to kill you with everything he throws.

Rodrigues vs Petrosyan 

Rodrigues SUB RD 2 

This is another fight where I dont really see the dog doing much. yes, Petrosyan has some crazy striking and power, but this is a tough ass debut and people are really overlooking Gregory. If you watch any of armen's fights, his opponents instantly take him down, out grapple him for a few minutes, gas, and then get koed by him. Now, he totally can win this fight as Gregorys gas and chin are questionable, but I think the grappling will make the difference. Gregory has some pretty high level bjj and we know armen has a serious weakness in grappling. Sure Gregory could gas like armens other opponents but I think armens lack of grappling will allow Gregory to sub him easily should this go to the ground. on the feet, I think its closer than people think. Gregory has some really good striking; hes super high volume, hits very hard, and his left hook is a laser beam and he counters very well with it. As I said, the standup of Petrosyan is ferocious but its not like hes invincible; he literally got koed the same year he got signed to the ufc.

I got Green because I am Islamophobic

Anyone have a solid read on Ziam vs Mckinney?

Perez vs. Martinez
Jonathan Martinez, DEC
Blind pick low level phantoms at feather who knows

I don’t have a solid read on that matchup but I am 99.9% sure McKinney will have to chase Ziam around the octagon for majority of the fight

* Edited at 02.26.2022, 1:15 PM ET *

Idk I’m pretty confident in McKinney. I don’t get what others are seeing in ziam. His strikings good but he is clueless on the ground. Mickinney fell in love with striking but he’s a beast of a wrestler too