UFC 270: N'Gannou vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Thoughts on gravely to beat saimon?
And kay Hansen to win?

* Edited at 01.21.2022, 1:39 PM ET *

Am I the only one appreciating the irony of Topuria’s cutting issues after talking **** about Evloev no longer being undefeated? I’m a fan, just saying. 

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2022/01/ufc-270-ilia-topuria-slams-movsar-evloev-not-undefeated-pulling-out

Edit:  bummed we lost both fights honestly though. 

* Edited at 01.21.2022, 1:39 PM ET *

1. Giles/Demopoulos/Gane @ 5.64:1
2. Moreno/Frevola/Nurmagomedov @ 3.37:1
3. Hansen/Gravely/Pereira @ 2.70:1
4. Maddalena/Barcelos @ 1.48:1
5. 10-pack : 1-3 + Maddalena @ 65.65:1
Total in : $5
Possible Cash-Out : $78.84

Now let's go make some money.

He stands a good chance I’m just worried about him fighting a sub specialist because gravely has absolutely 0 regard for avoiding submissions. He has good sub defense but still. I’m not overly impressed by saimon and I’ve noticed he has a weakness for wrestlers but I’d say like 70% confident in gravely. He’s better everywhere but again has to be careful especially when going for takedowns because saimons specialty is the guillotine

gravely should walk through him. saimon is lucky to be in the ufc imo. gravely wins 9 out of 10 times for me

Nice to see everyone making weight

These fighters really need to consider the implications of not showing on my memes. I wasted 20 minutes of my life creating this, and it would have been glorious to drop it and troll the Tap majority if had Turman had been able to keep it standing, got a decision/late TKO.

I cashed out a bet on Jourdain at +370 and put the 90% I got back into Jourdain at +500 since mathematically that's a greater return. So now I'm down before the event even started.
Apparently these days any fight the UFC put up should have a disclaimer in Dana's voice saying "we'll see what happens".

Demopoulos/Gravely-Saimon o2.5/Maddalena by KO

Who ****s that one up? Tony is going up against a guy who's never been finished after he himself got KO'd for being too aggressive, expecting him to fight a bit more conservative and pick up a decision, Vanessa isn't 37 and actually knows how to grapple nuff said. Pete is an unknown quantity and I'm counting on Jack to not fold early.

I'll be real pissed if Maddalena ends up finding a sub or something though, lol.

Moreno vs. Figueiredo III
Brandon Moreno, DEC
I think Moreno rises again. Cardio is key.

Demopoulos vs. Juárez
Silvana Gómez Juárez, TKO, R2
Gonna go with Juarez here. Hoping she doesn't have to grapple.

Jasudavicius vs. Hansen
Kay Hansen, DEC
I think the fight is more competitive than it looks. Jasmine could make this interesting.

(for anyone doing a double take, it's just the way the photo was taken. Morales most definitely has all of his fingers on his right hand)

Seriously imagine getting hit by N'Gannou. 257lbs with barely any fat anywhere. 

Trust me gane is in trouble 

Barcelos vs Henry 

Barcelos Dec 

I think barcelos will win but this line is kind of ridiculous. Henry is unknown but hes quite good. lots of experience against past, current, and (potentially) future ufc guys. he is a catch wrestler trained by Josh Barnett. im not totally impressed with his striking but it is improving. his tdd is also not that great but he has a good getup game so they kind of negate each other. I think the line is too wide, but I think barcelos is too much for him rn. the way to beat barcelos is with good movement; barcelos struggled against said in the earlier rounds and struggled with valievs movement, however, Henry doesn't move around too much on the feet from what ive seen. barcelos is a guy who could be in top 10 rn if it wasn't for bad luck; his boxing and head movement is crazy and hes got a grappling background too. He was a multiple time Brazilian and South American wrestling champ and is also a world champ in bjj. he is trained under the tutelage of his father who is a coral belt so that shows you the knowledge he has.

Della Maddelena vs Rodriguez 

Della ko/tko Round 1 

very interesting fight here. Pete is a guy who has insane natural power. this dude just floors everybody he fights and has 11 ko's in 11 wins (4 as a pro 7 as an amateur). his tape reminds me of randy costa; nutty power and very good technique but poor gas tank. in the amateur fights ive seen, the one second round finish he has was a struggle for him, he was very tired but he got the finish. For jack della, im super impressed with this kid; I really think hes got insane potential. his boxing is great; he works the body well, his combinations are powerful and crisp, and he throws very high volume. hes not just a striker either, hes got good wrestling and is a brown belt in bjj. I dont think Pete will shoot but if he does im also very impressed with della's tdd and ground game; he had a great reversal on dwcs and was very hard to takedown. my one worry is in almost every fight of his ive seen, he gets hit with a very bad shot in the first round. I dont like this against someone with power like Pete but, della has been able to fight through it so it should be fine. I also think Pete is good but nobody should be in the ufc with only 4 pro fights against ****** competition.

Gravely vs oliviera 

Gravely ko/tko Round 2 

I dont really understand the matchmaking on this one. I wasn't very impressed with Saimon nor do I think he should be in the ufc. in the tape I watched, the majority of his fights are him getting pressed against the cage until he finds the guillotine and wins by sub. ive seen some of his striking on regionals and dwcs and its decent; loves flying knees and has good Muay Thai but hes most comfortable with his bjj. His best weapon is the guillotine and I think the majority of his sub wins are guillotines. this is where my only worry comes into play; tony's ability to get subbed. when I watch tape on Tony its almost astonishing how little he cares about sub attempts. he always finds himself fighting off subs, now, with this comes a great submission defense but still you dont like to see this against a guillotine specialist. as for his fighting skills, hes just better everywhere; his striking isn't much more than punches but he puts everything into them and hits quite hard for someone with only 9 ko's. his striking has been improving a lot actually. his main weapon is wrestling Tony, much like simon or merab, will infinitely spam takedowns on you if he gets close. now this is key because not only is he a phenomenal wrestler, but Saimon is not good against wrestlers nor is he good against people who push the pace. in his most recent loss, Saimon got destroyed by the wrestling of ary arias. granted, farias is a phenomenal grappler but gravely has better wrestling than he does and ary took him down like 7 or 8 times and pretty much just pounded him from mount the whole fight. To my point about Saimon not liking pace; as I said earlier, majority of his fights are him just getting held against the cage until he finds a sub but gravely does not just hold people against the cage, he is a ball of energy and is constantly active which Saimon isn't going to like. finally, gravely would have fought a top 15 guy if he didnt lose so not sure what the ufc saw in Saimon that makes them think he was ready for someone on the level of gravely.

Hansen vs Jasudavicius 

Hansen sub Round 3 

I was not impressed with jasmine on dwcs. I believe she was an olympic hopeful or involved with the Olympics for wrestling in some way, so we know thats her strength. her striking wasn't very impressive and her striking defense was also quite bad. im also a little confused as to how good she actually is when she's on top; she destroyed her opponent on the ground but at the same time that girl wasn't ufc ready. when I watched her fight with Elise reed (who is a small SW and also a white belt) was able to reverse her multiple times. Hansen is a much better grappler than Elise reed so she could cause problems to jasmine there. The biggest concern for me is Hansen is going to be giving up reach and height advantage but besides that I feel like she's better everywhere except wrestling. on the feet she's the much better striker; she isn't a god on the feet but she has pro boxing experience which will help a lot. she's also either a brown or purple belt in 10th planet bjj and has some really nasty grappling skills. I also like her cardio as jasmine looked tired. the crazy thing too is Hansen is 10 years younger and hasn't fought in a year yet she has more experience. jasmine has skills but I dont think she should be in the ufc yet. Also going kay by 3rd round finish because ⅚ of her finishes are in round 3 and jasmine doesnt have a great gas tank.

Frevola vs valdez 

Frevola ko/tko round 3 

now this is a tough one to pick. Im very tempted in Valdez as an underdog but there's so many arguments for each side that its difficult. now, I know for a fact the version of Valdez that fought on dwcs is different from how he normally fights; it was obvious from his pre fight interviews and the promo that he was looking for a first round finish. he pretty much threw caution to the wind and brawled with his opponent. this caused him to gas badly but he got the finish. when I watch his tape outside the ufc, even though hes finishing every fight, he fights at a much slower pace and doesn't really hunt the finish it just kind of comes to him. now, its not going to be as easy to get the finish on the big stage but still. I also think he has a good gas tank as long as he doesn't fight at that absurd pace because I saw the one fight of his that went to the third round and it was mostly high paced grappling and he didnt look that tired. Now, I think the reason majority of tap is on Valdez is because frevola makes a TON of mistakes when he brawls. Frevola's whole style is brawling and hes gotten better about it but in his debut it cost him bad; he kept throwing a blind leg kick and polo took advantage of that and counter punched him in the face. he also got his liver destroyed on dwcs but was able to pull through. I think his chin is a lot better than people think; yes hes been koed twice and dropped multiple other times, but look at the shots he takes. Pena hit him with a full force flying knee and he didnt even buckle and lando was teeing off on him but couldn't do anything about it. frevola is quite well rounded too; hes got striking, wrestling, and bjj. his best attribute is his cardio. if Valdez wants to brawl, we know frevola can keep the same pace for 5 rounds if he needed too. thats the main reason im picking him. im uneasy about the mistakes he makes but he has no problem making the fight ugly and valdez has shown he doesn't have the gas tank to brawl the whole fight. also, big step down in comp for frevola.

Juarez vs Demopulous 

Juarez DEC 

 I am disappointed we get all these cancellations yet this ******* fight stays on the card. thankfully, its opening the card like it should be and isn't anywhere higher. both women wouldn't be in the ufc if it wasn't for short notice and both are too old to really have any impact in the ufc. this is also the classic striker vs grappler matchup. Demopoulos has bjj that apparently people on here think is high level. I couldn't be bothered to watch tape for this fight but it seems to be ok I guess. however, bjj is about all she has. her wrestling is dog**** and ordinarily, I would give her a pass because jj Aldrich was much bigger than her but in the other fights ive seen its just not that good. her striking sucks either and she also has the shortest reach ive ever seen at 59.5 inches. for Juarez she has a decent record outside the ufc but all she really has is striking. again, I want to give her benefit of doubt because she fought a really tough opponent on short notice but once she got taken down she had nothing for loopy. on the feet she's got pretty decent striking; she's got a good jab and throws a lot of leg kicks. again, I couldn't be bothered to watch tape but im going with Juarez because she has more experience and I dont think Demopoulos will be able to get it where she wants. also juarez is way hotter, not that it means anything but its just a fact.

Ngannou vs Gane 

Ngannou KO/TKO round 1 

power vs technique. thats basically the gist of this entire fight. gane is unlike any HW we have ever seen and probably will ever see. he moves like a MW and just does everything flawlessly. He picks his shots correctly and everything he does is calculated to make you lower your guard so he can land power shots. hes a good grappler too but like the figgy/moreno fight, this one will be all on the feet. my reason for ngannou is you just cant do anything about that power. Now I think one thing people are overlooking about ngannou is he has technique. its ignorant to assume he just has power and that all he can do his throw his arms around and hope for a ko. no, he actually has striking technique. lets not forget this man originally wanted to be a boxer. ngannou is basically an athletic, fast derrick lewis. hes a physical specimen and honestly is probably just as athletic as gane; I mean just look at him. gane will always have the speed advantage but Francis is also entering this fight 8 pounds lighter than usual so im sure him and niksick were working on his speed here. Im going him but would not be surprised at all if gane beats him

Figgy vs Moreno III 

Figgy DEC 

After seeing the weigh ins I am quite confident in figgy. I know Moreno made massive improvements but, and this is a very very unpopular opinion, but I dont really know the extent of them because figgy was very clearly not himself in that last fight. I dont believe that his career is over at flyweight because of that performance; I really think all that talk is ********. When watching the first fight, when hes on, hes on. he clearly won 4-1 (technically 3-1 because of the nutshot but he still won that round) and it would have been a win if not for bad judging. I think its obvious hes put the weight issues behind him if that wasn't already evident from the weigh ins and I think the camp change will be very beneficial for him. I do hope Cejudo was able to fix his tdd as figgy has never had good tdd and Moreno pretty much had his way when it came to take downs in both fights. Moreno has great boxing technique where figgy is more power over technique. hes not going to be able to rely on this power because Moreno is next to impossible to finish but he was still landing the more effective shots in the first fight. Figgy still hits hard and im interested to see what this light version will be able to do in terms of speed. the wrestling advantage goes to moreno and I think its close on the bjj side because both are quite good bjj black belts but I think this will mostly stay on the feet where I think figgy has the advantage.

Pereira vs Fialho 

Pereira KO/TKO round 2 

This is, like most fights on the card, one I have gone back and forth on. ultimately, ive decided on pereira because I think its a very bad matchup for fialho. Both guys have bad cardio but pereira's can be controlled. it just depends how many theatrics he decides to employ, especially being the fight right before the title fights. when hes not showboating, pereira's striking is very good. he hits very hard and also is a great grappler. he doesn't have insane wrestling ability, but hes able to use his strength to pick people up and slam them down. I believe hes also a black belt and has shown to have a solid sub game. I think one thing that also impresses me is his experience. I cannot believe the amount of fights he has for his age; this will be his 40th fight at only 28. he also has a great chin as hes only been finished once by ko. for fialho, I really like him but as I alluded to earlier this is just a bad matchup for him. hes got serious power but unfortunately just has a terrible gas tank. unlike pereira's his isn't something that can be controlled he just gasses out past the second round. I have a weird feeling he could catch pereira early (which was my whole reason for going with him originally) but its going to get bad for him in the later rounds. He too has a great chin but hes very hittable. he can take an insane amount of damage but eventually it will add up. I also dont know how his ground game is but I would assume pereira has the grappling advantage.

Stamann vs Nurmagomedov 

Stamann DEC 

im really not impressed with said. seeing his tough cut at the weigh ins further makes me more confident in Cody, also Cody looked great at the weigh ins. said deserves some hype as he has great striking but I think hes really all striking. he has good movement thats hard to figure out and he loves to throw spinning backlists and kicks. The reason im not hyped on him is because he seems one dimensional. he has very good tdd but once he does get taken down he really cant do much on the ground. his offensive wrestling is also terrible, coming in at 7% accuracy. Cody on the other hand has been fighting at the highest level for most of his ufc career. hes definitely struggled at the higher level but hes still very good. Cody is very technical; hes got good speed and is primarily a wrestler, which I think will come into play here. at the higher level, he hasn't been as effective with his wrestling, only controlling his opponents at an 11% rate, but his wrestling is still good. he was able to notch a takedown against merab who is an incredible wrestler and I think all it will take here is one takedown from Cody and said will struggle to get back up. I agree with most people that on the feet it won't be that close because Cody's striking just isn't on the same level as said's but as I said, said strikes me as 1D and the wrestling should be the difference here.

Giles vs Morales 

Giles ko/tko round 2 

so this is one that I had to see weigh ins before switching the pick. Morales is another guy who I think has a bright future; hes young but already has 12 fights, he has a massive reach for the division, and is incredibly well rounded. he was a judo champ and a wrestling champ in Ecuador and I believe hes a purple belt in bjj. my reason for going Giles here is, like Saimon vs gravely, I think its a massive step up for Morales. Now unlike Saimon, I actually think Morales is good but Giles is a massive step up In competition and its not even close. now he can win this fight because Giles has very poor fight iq, but im still leaning Giles after seeing the weigh ins. Giles is a massive WW, hes fought as high as 205 but he comfortably made the cut which is good to see. Hes quite well rounded but as I said the main thing holding him back is the fight iq. His striking is crisp and hes got some serious power. he too also has a wrestling background paired with a brown belt in bjj. He already has a good tdd but its going to be even better with his size advantage at WW. for Morales, he fought differently than he did in his tape. in his tape, he would fight behind his reach but on dwcs he was much more aggressive and showed that he was quite hittable. I think its a good thing for Giles that he does this because if he comes out with the same game plan hes not going to have that big reach advantage. also being moved up to the first fight on the main card might be a lot for someone as young as Morales making the ufc debut.