Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo

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Tapology
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08.25.2021 | 3:52 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 12.04.2021 at 07:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC APEX
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Daniel Cormier, Michael Bisping
  • Ring Announcer: Joe Martinez
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Daniel Cormier
  • TV Ratings: 592,000 avg. viewers (400k prelims)
  • MMA Bouts: 13
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
José Aldo   defeats   Rob Font   via Decision, Unanimous   5 Rounds, 25:00 Total Bout Page
Rafael Fiziev   defeats   Brad Riddell   via KO/TKO, Wheel Kick   2:20 Round 3 of 3, 12:20 Total Bout Page
Jamahal Hill   defeats   Jimmy Crute   via KO/TKO, Right Hook   0:48 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Clay Guida   defeats   Leonardo Santos   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   1:21 Round 2 of 3, 6:21 Total Bout Page
Chris Curtis   defeats   Brendan Allen   via KO/TKO, Punches and Knees   1:58 Round 2 of 3, 6:58 Total Bout Page
Alex Morono   defeats   Mickey Gall   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Duško Todorović   defeats   Maki Pitolo   via KO/TKO, Ground and Pound   4:34 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Manel Kape   defeats   Zhalgas Zhumagulov   via KO/TKO, Punches   4:02 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Bryan Barberena   defeats   Darian Weeks   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Cheyanne Vlismas   defeats   Mallory Martin   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
William Knight   defeats   Alonzo Menifield   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Claudio Puelles   defeats   Chris Gruetzemacher   via Submission, Kneebar   3:25 Round 3 of 3, 13:25 Total Bout Page
Vince Morales   defeats   Louis Smolka   via KO/TKO, Overhand Right   2:02 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page

Responses Page 29

Baldric Eggling
Baldric Eggling

11.28.2021 | 8:07 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 525 Points   |   Tied for 539th

Someone wrote an algorithm to measure/compare variables based on available fighter data a few years back which generated probabilities on those inputs, and created a UFC predictor. Even in Beta it had a success rate of 71%, and it was pretty low-fi considering what it could be programmed to do with a dedicated team of developers working on it.
Baldric Eggling
Baldric Eggling

11.28.2021 | 8:21 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 525 Points   |   Tied for 539th

Update: It's come along since I last checked in and is up 74% accuracy. It's predicting Font over Aldo interestingly.

https://mmai-app.azurewebsites.net/upcomingEvents
AyyLmaonnaise
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11.28.2021 | 8:24 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 555 Points   |   354th Place

I mean font is a favorite so it kinda makes sense 

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

Baldric Eggling
Baldric Eggling

11.28.2021 | 8:28 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 525 Points   |   Tied for 539th

74%.

STat R bAd

* Edited at 11.28.2021, 8:28 PM ET *

AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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11.28.2021 | 8:34 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 555 Points   |   354th Place

It also said hill has an 81% chance of beating crute😭😭😭I’m backing hill but cmon man, 81%? He’s a ******* underdog

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

Baldric Eggling
Baldric Eggling

11.28.2021 | 8:44 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 525 Points   |   Tied for 539th

It also doesn't predict every fight on any given card because it doesn't have entries for all fighters, so that 74% gets a bit weaker the more you think about it.  But the point remains that yes, numbers do have meaning.
Gavin Austin
Gavin Austin
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11.28.2021 | 8:44 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 2507th

Morono vs. Gall
Alex Morono, DEC
lol

"**** bruno silva and andre fili"

DCpredictions
DCpredictions
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11.28.2021 | 9:16 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 2090th

I kinda like over 1.5 azamat/Jared. I think the size advantage/ufc experience allows him to at least survive that. It's even money 
AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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11.28.2021 | 9:18 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 555 Points   |   354th Place

I like that ngl. Vanderaa never getting ko’ed on the feet makes that very interesting too. Azamat is insanely strong tho; almost all his finishes have came from him landing one punch, not even from damage getting built up, he’s just that powerful

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

DCpredictions
DCpredictions
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11.28.2021 | 9:28 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 2090th

Yeah it's not something to bet the house on, but I think the worst that can happen is like his fight with spivak who is decently bigger than azamat, got mauled, was his debut, and still lasted over 1.5. And like you said, never koed which is more azamats game
AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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11.28.2021 | 9:38 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 555 Points   |   354th Place

Yup. I wanna see it go over 1.5. I wanna see more of azamats skill set too

* Edited at 11.28.2021, 9:38 PM ET *

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

dirtyreg22
dirtyreg22
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11.28.2021 | 9:52 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 5 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 315 Points   |   Tied for 2825th

Murzakanov vs. Vanderaa
Azamat Murzakanov, DEC
murzakanov via top control and control time advantage. i dont think he stops tough nose vanderaa though decision for me.

CrimsonChinGuru
CrimsonChinGuru
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11.28.2021 | 10:05 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 525 Points   |   Tied for 539th

Most of these fights are close and hard to predict but the hardest to me is Menifield vs Knight either of these dudes can send eachother to the shadow realm. Only reason I edge Knight right now is the ground game he has in his back pocket.

* Edited at 11.28.2021, 10:06 PM ET *

"They killed Jesus for speaking the truth..."

AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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11.28.2021 | 10:13 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 555 Points   |   354th Place

Yeah his ground game was awesome when da un jung racked up 12 minutes of control time 

* Edited at 11.28.2021, 10:15 PM ET *

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

ZoomerBet
ZoomerBet
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11.28.2021 | 11:31 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 440 Points   |   Tied for 1525th

I'll make it easy for ya, Menifield will probably push Knight into the cage for 3 rds, Knight will attempt a few ugly TD's and fail, then give up. I think it will be a boring fight.

Menifield by Dec.

* Edited at 11.28.2021, 11:32 PM ET *

"Excuse me guys, I want to say something. I want to stay humble, but I have to talk because you guys talk too much"

AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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11.28.2021 | 11:40 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 555 Points   |   354th Place

It’s either highlight reel ko or boring dec 

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

Rusty _Tennakoon
Rusty _Tennakoon
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11.28.2021 | 11:51 PM ET

@DCpredictions

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 300 Points   |   Tied for 2912th

I like that Azamat over 1.5 call 👍
DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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11.28.2021 | 11:52 PM ET

@dcprediction

Predictions: 5 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 345 Points   |   Tied for 2608th

My point is the same as your, Or we saying the same thing, Stats are useful to show a point, I use them all the time also,  The problem is when you let the stats tell you something your eyes ain't seeing, They're a reason fightmetic scoring don't exist, not everything is equal,  stats are misleading, But are good if you know how to use them correcly

Also my last post wasn't a dig on you, I agree with you, And it clear you watch tape on the fight, And use stats to show points, I’m working on a big breakdown for the next PPV btw and I’m doing the same thing

* Edited at 11.28.2021, 11:59 PM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

RichOsama
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11.29.2021 | 12:13 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 505 Points   |   Tied for 697th

That's what I said in the beginning. Knight by KO or Manifield by decision. No in-between 
AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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11.29.2021 | 12:32 AM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 555 Points   |   354th Place

Yeah I’m not even sure why I said that out of nowhere. I’m pretty high so I’m assuming my brain was on autopilot when I typed that lol. My thoughts on the fight are it will probably be boring until someone lands a spectacular ko

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

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