UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

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Think a lot of the line on Henry has to do with the short notice. You have exceptions but generally short notice guys don't do well. 

Raphael Assunção   vs.   Ricky Simón 


Raphael isn't winning this fight. Assuncao circa 2017 would have been a different deal, but he's looked terrible in his last several outings and if you're getting UD'ed by the Ross Pearsons of the world it's probably time to think about Bellator or hanging em' up. Barring some kind of Uriah Faber like misread upset KO/TKO Ricky VERY likely grinds out a win here pretty comfortably. A finish wouldn't shock me either. Assuncao probably either needs to find a new way to beat the PED tests or to find a better drug dealer.


Sijara Eubanks   vs.   Melissa Gatto

You know, I think Gatto is being seriously undervalued by the bookies in this one. I get why she's the dog, but I wouldn't be betting on Sarj here with my money. The thing is, Gatto is a really big lanky *****, and it's hard to take down fighters with long legs unless the person attempting that is a very technical wrestler who can work up to positions, and although Sijara does have a good blast double, she's limited in her ability to chain together transitions. She also has a tendency to fade hard. Gatto does have very solid cardio, has decent striking at long range and she also has decent BJJ. I say decent because she is heavily oversold in this capacity, and is probably the most overrated purple belt in existence. Her TDA is 20%. She also gets hit a LOT at 4.0 sapm, and that stat is pretty damning when you consider the charwomen she's beaten in the UFC.

All that said, Eubanks is an extremely stupid fighter. It would not at all surprise me if she ended up on the bottom. I doubt she gets subbed if that happens, she doesn't have a neck. But she probably wouldn't be able to sweep/ build out of Gatto in her guard. However I think it's more likely Eubanks winds up in hers, rabbit punching through the minutes and not getting subbed en route to a boring dec. I lean Eubanks. But IMO you'd be nuts to bet her here, and I think Gatto is good value at her current moneyline or better. Dog or pass.

* Edited at 12.14.2021, 10:03 PM ET *

Daukaus

These new heavyweights are fun to watch. Guys like Daukaus, Aspinall, Gane move way different than traditional HW. Lewis is a traditional HW. He could absolutely sleep him but I see Daukaus being quicker and eventually dropping him. Daukaus RD 2 KO/TKO. Gimme Daukaus vs Aspinall.

I think the UFC are trying to build up Daukaus, It heavyweight where they're only 3 prospect in the moment, Daukaus, Aspnal and Tuivisa, The UFC need to not let them be busted prospect while also building them up, I fell like Shelby and Maynard are seeing something with this matchup where not seeing, I think Shelby see Lewis being at the end of his carrer, And Hoping Daukus catch him at the time where he slower, But still has a lot of credbilty for a win over him

But not confident, Lewis is a mixture of **** and good, That makes it hard to be confendent in him winning or losing, I'm leaning Daukaus, Because I just belive Shelby and Maynard are genius at making matchup that benefit the UFC by either being really fun or build up conteder or both, That what they paid to do

* Edited at 12.14.2021, 11:47 PM ET *

Is it better to bet your parlays earlier and risk losing an entire piece or wait and lose value on your lines? Mine are looking like the stock market circa 1929 right now.

You arent always going to gain value on lines...sometimes the line will go the opposite way that you want..

At least if you lose a leg due to pull out or injury you just take a hit on a portion of the parlay not a complete loss.

@Volatyle I don't really understand your question.

Can you put it into some context? I think you mean that you locked in a parlay on a bunch of fighters and their...value has decreased, but without knowing what that actually looks like or meaning it has I can't really venture an opinion. You could always pull the parlay and bend over for the brokerage fee/cancellation fee anyway, surely?

* Edited at 12.15.2021, 12:16 AM ET *

I do research for my picks all throughout the week but I actually place them in on Friday evening or Saturday morning after weigh-ins so the bouts are finalized.  Then again, I started betting on MMA during the COVID era when plenty of fights were getting cancelled so I was forced to take this approach.  

Also, sometimes it works out that you get better odds earlier in the week and sometimes it works out that the odds get better as the week goes on.  For example, Derrick Lewis was a +120 at the start of the week and now he is almost at a pick em against Chris Daukaus.  Another example, Gerald Meerschaert was a +340 early in the week when he fought Makhmud Muradov and then that line jumped to +400 as it got to fight time.  Gerald was still able to win even though the odds jumped against him.  

Also it's much better to actually put in your bets after the weigh-ins because a fighter could miss weight and it could influence your decision to pick that particular fighter.  I was leaning Josh Hill the other week in Bellator against Jared Scoggins.  When Scoggins missed weight, it gave me the green light to go heavy on Hill which was at pick-em odds. 

Do whatever that works for you!

I think its better to get parlays in early because I assume it mostly favorites. For every time a favorite became a better deal for your parlay there's at least 2 times they because even bigger parlays. If you like a underdog maybe wait for a better line

* Edited at 12.15.2021, 2:00 AM ET *

Elkins vs. Swanson
Darren Elkins, TKO, R1
Elkins is gonna wreck this guy. Under dog king and also Swanson is a broken man.

Looking at the odds on the fights there's potential to make massive money this week it's insane 

I need Wonderboy and Lewis for £6100 

That's a very dangerous bet IMO.

Yeah Wonderboy is a safe bet, no disrespect to Belal, but the Lewis pick is a little bit dangerous I agree. I wouldn't bet a lot on it.

I don't think Darren will wreck em but I think he'll be able to out pace Cub rds 2 and 3 and maybe secure a stoppage in 3. Cub will get rd 1. 

Last card of the year 
https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-lewis-vs-daukaus-betting-guide

Not sure if Elkins can outpace cub on striking tho. Cub is a relentless striker. He also has an incredible chin so not sure if Elkins can get a ko. A sub is always likely as cub has awful submission defense.

* Edited at 12.15.2021, 8:00 AM ET *

Yeah he is but them body kicks his last fight got me worried. I think he could get wrestle ****** in Rd 2 and then Darren's will put on a clinic in 3. 

Think I'll take Darren by sub , either Rd 2 or 3. 

* Edited at 12.15.2021, 8:00 AM ET *

I can get behind both of those bets. Easy money !