UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Been working out a new personal betting system for the last 3 weeks, with the biggest allotment being 3 units on a 2 leg ML only bet of my two most confident spots. 

So far it's been 3/3 with Santos/Pinhero, Vlismas/Morono, and O'Malley/Silva. 

Going to try to make it 4/4 with Ricky Simon / Raoni Barcelos. 

Victor is another one of these spots where it's like nobody free on the roster wants to accept a short notice fight with a guy like Barcelos, so they offer it to someone outside the UFC, they know they have a really low chance of winning but it gets their foot in the door and the next match they give them another debutante or someone much lower level. This happens pretty much every time to anyone not named Chris Curtis. As far as watching their fights Barcelos looks better in pretty much every area. I mean dude was just a -300 against a guy like Timur Valiev, and now he's the same price against a late notice debutante? 

Watching assuncaos more recent fights his striking seems to be showing his age, Ricky looks to have more power, he's not the fastest striker but should be able to outdo assuncao there. But really you gotta look at the wrestling. In assuncaos last 6 his opponents went 1/7 for takedowns.....but most of these were strikers and the Lopez guy was 1/4 just himself (and the one he did get, he got with ease) that guy went 0/3 in the UFC and I assume got cut. On the flip side, Simon is 30 / 51 for takedowns in his last 6. 51 ******* takedown attempts in 6 fights. He's going to set up his shots with strikes, get him down hit with shots on the ground, if assuncao gets up or gets in a good defensive position, he will rinse and repeat the whole fight. 

Wouldn't you say meerschaert is a lock too 

Victor Henry is actually quite good. Granted, I think barcelos will win easily but Henry is no joke. He’s a catch wrestler trained by John Barnett and has multiple wins over current and former ufc fighters  

@welsh meerschaert is probably my most confident pick on the card

* Edited at 12.14.2021, 5:06 PM ET *

@Mayo I'll disagree with that assessment. Gadhelha, Yoder, waterson are all either primarily grapplers or have strong wrestling (especially waterson). Teccia Torres has a strong wrestling base but doesn't use it, she's more of an anti-wrestler. I'm not surprised hill lost to Torres. She's got much faster hands and is very good in the pocket.

Hill can get taken down, but she's very scrambly and it isn't easy to get her to the mat unless she's in space. Very hard to get her down if she's got the fence. Lemos doesn't seem to have a double or reactive takedowns. All the tape I've watched on her shows her hitting outside trips from the clinch. Hill is solid defensively against that manoeuvre. 

Lemos should be the favourite, but she shouldn't be the massive favourite she is. I think she's more likely to win with striking than grappling TBH.

That is a fair point. She is getting taken down every fight tho which is just something to note. Also loma was able to take her down. If she’s getting taken down a lot I’m just interested to see what someone as strong as lemos will be able to to do her. Hill does have a great tdd tho. I agree with your point on the line; I think it’s massively juiced because of recency bias and hill being short notice (even tho she’s made a career of short notice fights)

Yes lmao he's not horrible but this is a ******* hard debut for him. And he's got a big hole where people are holding him down pretty good when they get him there. I believe he will lose this fight handily, but he probably gets like a contender series guy after this and I might back him there. But man I would have to have been blown away from watching his past fights to back him short notice against raoni. 

Chris Curtis did it twice, crazier things have happened, Nunes just lost, I fully expect some of these to not go through, just need most of em. 

I'm supriesed how Diego Ferreira is underrated,I think he sub Gamrot even I'm from Poland.

Yeah easy fight for Diego mate. But people are blind.

oh not him again

he even invited his friend to this thread so they can say **** together bruh

I mean absolutely not suspicious both from Poland and he agrees 3 minutes after him, either multi account or friend

not to mention it is almost 1am here, so it even lowers the probability of that happening by coincidence

* Edited at 12.14.2021, 6:45 PM ET *

Oh I agree. I was just pointing out Henry is quite good. This is too much for him tho as barcelos is an animal

Another Stupid Theory. You Nothin But A Hater Hater.
Bend The Knee! # VegasStrong # SeeYouSoon -CSO-

Am I the only one who thinks that gatto is going to win vs eubanks?

You guys gotta not spend pages just going back and forth 1-1, get a room over that he-said she said ****, nobody cares.

Does Gatto has potential here?

I picked Gatto by sub every time I've seen Eubanks she is dropping the ball and falling on it.
She did just beat some undersized regional but that is her last good showing since exhibitions. 

With alittle makeup. Sure Gatto has potential

Henry does deserve more respect from the oddsmakers, but it does seem like Barcelos has him matched everywhere on top of being more athletic. Still, I'm steering clear from a ML bet in this fight and instead betting the over - either o2.5 at -140 is great value imo considering that Henry has never been finished, and Barcelos is coming off losing a decision due to blowing his gas tank on pursuing a finish.

I expect the fight to contain a lot of grappling, and given the skillset of both men, I doubt we'll see an early finish.