UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Caceres vs. Choi
Seung Woo Choi, TKO, R2
Beat zalal

Grant vs. Trinaldo
Dwight Grant, DEC
Francis 43

Negumereanu vs. Villanueva
Nick Negumereanu, DEC
Youth/toss up

Vettori by decision

Middleweight is the pinnacle of wrestlers holding dudes down. Expecting the same here.

Costa vs. Vettori
Paulo Costa
costa +115. vettori -140.

Dawson vs. Glenn
Grant Dawson
dawson -340. glenn +260.

Clark vs. Edwards
Jessica-Rose Clark
clark -140. edwards +115.

Caceres vs. Choi
Alex Caceres
caceres +220. choi -280.

Grant vs. Trinaldo
Dwight Grant
grant +100. trinaldo -120.

Negumereanu vs. Villanueva
Nick Negumereanu
negumereanu -125. villanueva +170.

Park vs. Rodrigues
Jun Yong Park
park -115. rodrigues +100.

Ricci vs. Oliveira
Maria Oliveira
ricci -225. oliveira +180.

Staropoli vs. Pickett
Jamie Pickett
staropoli -230. pickett +190.

Worthy vs. Herbert
Khama Worthy
worthy +145. herbert -175.

Molina vs. Lacerda
Daniel Lacerda
molina -170. lacerda +140.

Souza vs. Markos
Randa Markos
souza -130. markos +105.

Costa vs. Vettori
Marvin Vettori, SUB, R5
Late fight submission win

How are you so cool? Can you father my child?, it be a great honour to raise your seed. 

* Edited at 10.20.2021, 1:36 AM ET *

Ricci vs. Oliveira
Tabatha Ricci, SUB, R2
Ricci should win comfortably here, I think she should be better everywhere, Oliveira can get backed up and if Ricci can back her up with her boxing and get some takedowns too then she should get this done. Oliveira is an okay grappler herself, I just think Ricci is better there and Ricci can get the finish I think

If Nick negumereanu is half way decent he will be an easy lock. Ike is the worst light heavyweight in the division. I haven't started doing my research on the card yet. Just going off the few people I know on this card I have Jeff Molina, woo Choi, Rodriguez and grant Dawson. I normally pick anyone fighting Markos but don't know who Souza is. 

Costa vs. Vettori
Paulo Costa, TKO, R3
I hope he's ready to go for 25 if he doesn't get that knockout in the 1st ten minutes.

Dawson vs. Glenn
Grant Dawson, DEC
Dawson to continue with the dominant wrestling.

Clark vs. Edwards
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
Jessy to take this fight to the mat.

Caceres vs. Choi
Seung Woo Choi, DEC
Alex has been fighting low level competition.

Grant vs. Trinaldo
Dwight Grant, DEC
The better fighter is 43 years old and throws less volume.

Negumereanu vs. Villanueva
Ike Villanueva, TKO, R3
Ike can stop the wrestling and clip Nicu.

I like how you don't know half the roster but call someone the worst. 

Betting Guide Link: 
https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-fight-night-costa-vs-vettori-betting-guide

Jones vs. Onama
Mason Jones, TKO, R3
Jones is so well rounded, he's calculated on the feet and has good wrestling, I think he'll mix things up in this one and put on a great performance, he has to be wary of the power coming his way, Onama likes to throw big powerful hooks and he's quite fast too. Jones has the better footwork though and the more accurate striking, very good counter striking too. I feel like Jones can drag it out to rounds 2 and 3 and get the finish from there, I don't think Onama's style will last him the whole 15 minutes

I think I'm going to place a bet on Pickett to beat Laureano around +200 but I can see people betting Laureano and making it a better deal later this week. 

At first I was thinking about parlaying over 2.5 for -205, I do not believe we would see a finish from Laureano, Jamie Pickett. For one he's shown to be very durable in the UFC. I'm not putting too much stock into 1 TKO from wright, wrights whole record was either getting this early flurry finish or bust, just hard to say the worth since he fought a crazy padded record. But wright might go and do that again and make this tko age better we don't know yet. For 2, that's now laureanos style, he throws in 2 to 3 combos and rarely goes for the finish. For 3 he's a welterweight coming up

Anyway as I watched tape I realized I'm not betting this over because I can absolutely see a finish from Pickett. He hasn't done it a lot but in his winning condenser series and in regional fights he would go for the kill and not stop unleashing till the ref stops it. When that's happened against Laureano against salikov and means, dude was stumbling (also two strikers with decent reach advantages over guys more his size at ww before that, now Pickett has even more reach) pretty hard I really thought it was about to be ended against salikov but he sorta stopped after a 15 second flurry, and Tim means had I think 2 moments in that fight where he had him in similar fashion. So I think with Jamie being the bigger man he will put it on him and get a finish and probably early. 

I was going to play Pickett Inside the Distance at +375, but I can definitely see me being wrong about a Pickett finish and Laureano is tough enough, or Pickett ends up just wrestling him being the bigger man for 3 rounds like dolizde did, to make it go to the judges, so I'm going to play it safe and just bet at ML at at least 2:1 

Two judges had it 20-18 Dawson and one 19-19. Dawson dominated 3rd also

* Edited at 10.20.2021, 4:00 PM ET *

DC I think that’s a great bet I too am gonna put maybe half a unit on Pickett. Staropoli should not be this big of a favorite 

something tells me pickett comes into this one very fired up after his previous loss to Jordan Wright. he looked in great physical shape before getting finished, and it seemed like his mental state wasn't ready for a fight. i think we see a whole different demeanor. And if he's got the size on staropoli similar to Dolidze, definitely putting a cheeky bet on Pickett. maybe even by KO. @DCpredictions, i like your breakdown!

Lol well MMAMISSFORUNE is an Izzy fanette and hes ducking me.  

* Edited at 10.20.2021, 1:41 PM ET *

Costa vs. Vettori
Marvin Vettori, DEC
i'm italian so i have to pick vettori, forza italian dream!