UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I threw a hundred bucks on pantoja + guida/Madsen over 2.5 for +135

That's the only thing I'm probably parlaying on this card. 

Maybe a few straight spots

Knight vs. Cherant
William Knight, TKO, R1
Round 1: Total Strikes: Knight: 14/20 (70%) Cherant: 21/25 (84%) Significant Strikes: Knight: 11/17 (65%) Cherant: 12/17 (71%) Takedowns: Knight: 1 of 2 (50%) Cherant: 1 of 3 (33%) Finish: Yes (Knight by KO at 2:49 of Round 1)

Did the Martinez fight get canceled? I just saw he’s got a fight signed with Trevin Jones. Or is this a Khamzat situation where they double booked him?

Well there’s my answer. 

Picking Abdul Alhassan vs Antonio Neto for a prop decision at 3.85 (+285). A less likely outcome, but at these odds, money here is in a strong position. PredictionsUFC.com

Finally a fight gets cancelled that the people wouldn't mind being cancelled, was gonna be painful to watch Casey vs. Jojua

Mana has looked impressive in his last two fights. He bounced back really well after his loss to Drako and has racked up two quick KOs against decent competition. Regarding his skill and style, he switches his stance often and has good feints, leg kicks, and counter shots. He’s also good from his guard. (He executed a nice omoplata sweep against Drako that unfortunately ended with him getting caught in a triangle. The sweep itself, though, was solid.) His punches have good variety too, both hooking and coming straight down the middle when they need to. My main issue with Mana is that he’s fairly predictable and his game is easy to prepare for. In each of his last three fights he’s come out the same: orthodox kicking the leg until he switches to southpaw to throw his left hand, which is arguably his best weapon. This will be a problem with Jones who starts southpaw and won’t give Mana that chance to use his best orthodox weapons. Mana can throw the head or body kick, but Jones has been prepared for that in the past. He often catches kicks and backs people up against the fence, slowing his opponent’s momentum. He also has good enough movement to survive aggressive strikers and lands his own powerful and accurate strikes. Jones is showing significant improvement as a fighter. In his last 4 fights he has a 100% finish rate. In his 9 wins before that he only had a 33% finish rate. For this fight, I think Mana comes out the more aggressive fighter initially, but I think Jones will nullify it heading into the second. Mana could try to take it to the ground, but Jones is no slouch there either (he has 4 sub wins to his name), and I think Mana will likely keep it standing where he’s had more recent success. Jones’ accuracy and power make him the more dangerous fighter, especially since I think Mana’s orthodox game will be significantly hindered. Despite his good hands, Mana does leave himself open. Eventually Jones will connect and put his lights out, I think sometime in the third. Jones by T/KO.

Aside from Alhassan’s exceptional power, there isn’t much else to praise. His wrestling is atrocious and his gas tank only holds enough for a round and a half. However, if he catches you with one of those biscuit mitts, it’s lights out. Neto hasn’t done MMA since 2017, and even then, he wasn’t doing well. Neto has stayed active though on the grappling scene, and Alhassan has proven that he can’t grapple his way out of a turtle neck. The real question is, can Neto get Alhassan to the ground without getting caught. Malkoun showed everyone how to do that just three months ago, which isn't much time for Alhassan to improve, so unless Neto is a complete moron, he should be able to accomplish it. Neto by gross-ass unwatchable decision (hate this fight, lol).

* Edited at 08.13.2021, 11:08 AM ET *

IDK what happened to Alhassan. Since he had that forced layoff due to **** allegations he's looked trash in all his fights. Malkoun seemed like a layup for him but he lost that too.

I'd rather have jojua vs Casey than malecki vs Nunes. Holy crap those two are bad. Like every fight I watch from them they lose until they just win out of nowhere

How the **** is Mark Madsen only -160 against Guida??? Madsen is an Olympic silver medalist in Greco. He also won 3 silvers and one bronze at the world wrestling championships. Not to mention he's 10-0 in MMA. I thought Madsen would open at -300 AT LEAST. If someone as accomplished as Madsen loses to a washed Guida with 20 losses, then Madsen should retire immediately out of sheer embarrassment.

@Duke76


I can only speak for myself, Madsen at -160 sounds like a bargain. It’ll definitely hit different than -300. Might not be a bad idea to lock that before they realize and change them.

Madsen faded hard in the Hubbard fight and got the decision. He loses in 5 rounds his last fight but this is 3 and it’s clay guida we’re talking about. 

* Edited at 08.14.2021, 6:21 AM ET *

I like Roberts and Hubbard as well 

It will be interesting to see the actual bout order next week. Right now both ESPN and UFC agree on the 6 fights on the main card with one difference in the order: Martinez/Jones opens the main card (same as listed here) according to UFC but is the 3rd fight according to ESPN. Neither has the Neto/Alhassan fight listed yet. But both agree on the order of the other 6 prelim fights: 

Lingo/Saldana
Kelleher/Pilarte
Malecki/Nunes
Knight/Cherant
Roberts/Bahamondes
Palatnikov/Brahimaj

You said that Madsen faded in his last fight and he "loses in 5 rounds." Guess what? His last fight was 3 rounds, not 5. So he got a UD. He won. And his upcoming fight against Guida is 3 rounds, not 5. So Madsen's performance in a hypothetical 5 round fight that is not going to take place is completely irrelevant.


Guida is not going to out wrestle an Olympic silver medalist. It's just that simple. Guida is a good wrestler. Madsen is a world class wrestler. Big difference. If Madsen loses this fight, it would be stunning.

It’s pretty simple MMAth in my eyes, cause I would pick Hubbard to cleanly beat Guida… so, why would I ever pick Guida to beat Madsen. I know comparisons like that don’t work often, but it tracks in my mind.

I need some thoughts on Pantoja, I've talked myself into him beating Royval who is way too wild.

What do people think of a Cannonor, Kellieher and Madson Parley at +277. All 3 of the legs are at approxmatly -190. I like to hear what people think

First for Jared Cannoner, I just think Kelvin is done. Kelvin doesn't look like a ranked fight and I think a few unranked fight would beat him at this point. He just look bad now, He  reminds me of Mike Perry. It like he lost his boxing. I think Kelvin ain't training hard anymore, I think he still look good phycialy, Only him and Mike Perry lose they fighting skills, Jared Cannonor is at the very minimum a solid top 10 fighter, A solid top 10/5 fighter beats Hermanson and have a competive fight with Rob, What Kelvin can't do

Kelliher vs Pillarte might be the biggest mismatch on the card for me, And at -190 it a steal. Pilate didn't look good in his 2 UFC fighter and I think he a bottom UFC guy, While Kelliher is a middle of the pack journeyman, I think he will finish him. Also I think the Yanez win is simular to Duffy vs Conor or Emmer vs Sandhagen and countless other example, If they rematch now, Yanez sleeps him in the first. Yanez has a majority of his MMA carrer and he got a ton better.Think that why Kelliher is not at least -300. People are hyping the Yanez win

And just read above for the Madson reasning, I think worst case scenerio he wins a 29-28 decsion if the judge ain't stupid, His cardio will be good for at least 2 rounds

* Edited at 08.14.2021, 6:05 PM ET *

Maybe gastelum is just a gatekeeper I mean if you look at all his recent losses they are all really high level guys