UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I mean its opinionated but id say there's definitely a good amount of talent to come from DWCS: Alex Perez, despite the rough patch Shahbazyan is still pretty good in my eyes, we will see how he does in his debut but aliaskhab khizriev looks promising, baeza, Hill, Neal, etc. I think part of the reason they dont have a huge amount of success is because a lot of them tend to get pushed by the Ufc as the next big thing or they get a spectacular performance against a can with padded stats and the Ufc tries to push them.

Also season 5 of dwcs actually has some really interesting fighters so maybe we can see some good talent get pushed through dwcs

I think it's possible Madsen fades, and Guida has endless cardio, but I would expect Madsen's wrestling/GnP would have already won two rounds by the time he fades. And 2021 Clay Guida isn't a significant KO/Sub threat against anyone with a decent foundation.

Over 2.5 is around -200 if you don't wanna sweat Madson or guida, I really can't see a finish happening. 

Is raw dawg basically sub or bust here? He hasnt looked all that crazy impressive in his fights before finding subs iirc. Not only that but but in pantojas entire ufc career hasn't even had a sub attempted on him. Very rarely on the deficit end of control time and never by much. 

Yeah I don't think Royval is going to win on fundamentals. Pantoja is too solid everywhere. And I also don't see Pantoja throwing his neck into a choke the way Tim Elliot did. I think -170 might be the steal of the card.

Yeah he's probably my most confident spot on the card so far. I'll probably have him in 2 leg to get + money on it. 

Thinking of Cannon, Kelleher, knight, and sherman parlayed together for 1000  @+488 odds. 

I’m still chasing my losses from those back to back underdog dominated UFC cards, so I’m thinking another four leg parlay after last week’s hit. 

Pantoja, Sherman, Madsen, Martinez. The thought of losing another bet to Parker Porter haunts me though. 

youre right erison lmao i may have to find another spot and take sherman out.

Porter just sucks though right? lol Any heavyweight with a decent right hand should be able to handle business!

My concerns for this card which is quite difficult for betting


1. I'd pick Cannonier who will be bigger and better than Gastelum, but does he have real 5 round fight experience? Gastelum is a Mexican warrior who will be hard to KO. Could Cannonier slow down and Gastelum implement grappling? - My bet will be over 2.5

2. O'Madsen is a better wrestler (but how good really?) but will slow down and gas by R3, could Clay who has endless cardio and better stand up win this? Again my bet is over 2.5

3. Kelleher is good but how good? I am picking Pillarte as he is so much bigger with a huge reach advantage and decent on the ground

4. Knights defensive wrestling and gas tank was awful last fight against a fighter in Da Un who clearly had a staph infection. Also really low volume striking and his KO power is really over rated. I think I will take Cherant who is huge compared to him and will likely keep it standing. Either way I am taking over 1.5

5. Hubbard loses to grapplers and Pichel is a good grappler

6. Palatnikov is not good, and I expect the Fortis MMA coached Brahimaj to finally implement what got him to the dance, his really good grappling

7. Roberts has beaten no one good, and Bahamondes seems to be a high level striker with a good reach advantage.

8. AlHassan has god awful defensive wrestling despite his Judo background and cannot get up to save his life. Neto will get him down but if he doesn't sub him in R1 he could gas and then is very hittable and shells up. My pick will be under 2.5

9. Sherman is untrustworthy, but still probably better than Porter. But I am taking the over 2.5

All the fights on this card are risky, my only confident bets are Mana Martinez ,Pilarte, Saldana and maybe Bahamondes. Tough, tough card!

Really hard to know bro, they are both useless. I'd take the over in this one

Can't say I share your confidence in Pilarte to be honest, his chin seems to be a massive liability. Newson is tiny and he managed to get inside and bop him good, he also got dropped in his DWCS win if memory serves.

He is tricky on the mat, I'll give you that, but seems to be Brian will find him first.

You are not wrong bro, his chin is definitely suspect. I only wonder if Brian will be able to reach it with enough power looking at how big he is. I agree though, maybe Brahimaj is a better bet!

Also Pilarte has a win over Adrian Yanez, need to find the tape of that. If its a good win then I will still go with him because I rate Yanez!

Sherman vs. Porter
Parker Porter, DEC
Round 1: Total Strikes: Sherman: 33/71 (46%) Porter: 26/59 (44%) Significant Strikes: Sherman: 30/66 (45%) Porter: 24/57 (42%) Takedowns: Sherman: 0 of 0 (0%) Porter: 1 of 2 (50%) Finish: No Round 2: Total Strikes: Sherman: 31/59 (53%) Porter: 31/55 (56%) Significant Strikes: Sherman: 26/54 (48%) Porter: 26/47 (55%) Takedowns: Sherman: 0 of 0 (0%) Porter: 1 of 1 (100%) Finish: No Round 3: Total Strikes: Sherman: 31/55 (56%) Porter: 41/73 (56%) Significant Strikes: Sherman: 28/54 (52%) Porter: 38/69 (55%) Takedowns: Sherman: 0 of 0 (0%) Porter: 0 of 1 (0%) Finish: No Result: Parker Porter def. Chase Sherman by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Pichel vs. Hubbard
Vinc Pichel, DEC
Round 1: Total Strikes: Pichel: 19/37 (51%) Hubbard: 17/38 (45%) Significant Strikes: Pichel: 16/31 (52%) Hubbard: 14/34 (41%) Takedowns: Pichel: 2 of 3 (67%) Hubbard: 2 of 3 (67%) Finish: No Round 2: Total Strikes: Pichel: 23/39 (59%) Hubbard: 20/36 (56%) Significant Strikes: Pichel: 15/31 (48%) Hubbard: 14/27 (52%) Takedowns: Pichel: 2 of 2 (100%) Hubbard: 2 of 2 (100%) Finish: No Round 3: Total Strikes: Pichel: 21/43 (49%) Hubbard: 27/42 (64%) Significant Strikes: Pichel: 15/35 (43%) Hubbard: 14/27 (52%) Takedowns: Pichel: 2 of 3 (67%) Hubbard: 1 of 3 (33%) Finish: No Result: Vinc Pichel def. Austin Hubbard by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum, TKO, R3
Gastelum's speed looked on-point against Whittaker, his opponent was just too good. I feel Jared is a little too flat-footed here.

Sherman vs. Porter
Parker Porter, DEC
Porter's coming forward and stopping Sherman in his tracks for three rounds. Just constantly popping him and scoring points.

Domingo Pilarte defeated the great puncher Adrian Yanez

Allegedly strader is out and will be replaced by trevin Jones 

Martinez vs. Strader
Mana Martinez
LOCK!!