UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Yeah man good for Herman for not being honest! Has people seen much video footage on Johnny Munoz?

another Houston card means it's going to be wild ... and I mean in a bad way !!! 

bad judges decisions 
bad ref calls 
.... you better hope no fight goes the distance.

Yeah that’s also the thing. Herman still had to go out there and win against a guy who was torching him. Body punches don’t really “go away”. Even after a few minutes rest, the next body shot is going to hurt exponentially more. They add up. Mike Rodriguez should have been able to win the fight with the very next body kick. 

Lewis vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, DEC
Gane should win by a wide margin on the scorecards.

Aldo vs. Munhoz
José Aldo, DEC
I think Aldo kickboxes his way to a decision win.

Yes Herman should have won performance of the night! Let’s all praise Herman for grabbing his nuts and convincing the ref it was an illegal shot! Now get off of Herman’s nuts bc they are sore and talk about this weeks fights! 

I didn't really wanna do a stat breakdown of this fight but it was personally requested by one of my biggest fans Duke76. This one's for you. 

Stats are based on the last 7 fights. If you look at the last 7 overall I would say Torres has had a decently harder schedule. Joanna, weili, Andrade, top contenders. Hill has fought decent girls but the edge definitely going to Torres these girls are going to be harder to get good stats on. With that said for the most part, hill only has a slight advantage on most the stats. 

Control(led) time and takedowns:

Torres controls 14.79% while being controlled 27.88% of the time. She landed 4 out of 26 takedowns and her opps went 17 of 35 (10 of these were Andrade) 
Hill Controlls 17.19% and is controlled 15.69% of the time. She went 4 of 11 on takedowns and her opponents went 6 for 31. In these 7 fights hill never landed more than 1 takedown....which leads me to her path to victory....the clinch. She's bigger, has the control time advantage, per second of control time she lands 3.07% strikes while her opponents do 1.22%, 35.5% of her total strikes come in the clinch and her opponents get 15% of them there. So she is effective in the clinch. 

On Torres end, 1.58% in the clinch and absorbing 3.09%. she does 38% of her total strikes there while her opponents do 57.9%

As far as the distance strikes, Torres lands 4.12% her opps 5.33%, hill  8.65% her opps 8.1%. 

Torres has 71.64% significant strikes landed of her total strikes landed, her opps 71.64%......hill 88.13% her opps 83.36% 

Torres lands 60.15% to the head, 21.57% to the body, 18.27% to the legs (I know that's not exact 100% the sheet rounds up)......her opps to her 42.34%, 38.93%, 18.73%

Hill 63.39% to head, 31.43 body, 5.18% legs....her opps to her 55.38%, 23.09%, 21.53%.

So leg kicks maybe affective for Torres, Torres keeps a high guard so hill may have success to the body. 

So in conclusion almost every stat favors hill here but it goes back to the opps they fought and Torres having much tougher competition. I'm going to slightly lean hill as I think she will find a lot of success in the clinch while probably slightly outmatched at distance (watching tape Torres definitely better distance striking). But I wouldn't touch this fight from a betting perspective unless maybe you wanted to parlay the juiced over, which probably hits but for -400 I'm good on it. 

Badass breakdown lil huri gonna rock a split d

Luque vs. Chiesa
Michael Chiesa, DEC
509 All Day

Kape vs. Osbourne
Manel Kape, TKO, R2
I think Kape's main problems in the UFC have been not letting go of his hands and not capitalizing when he had a chance to finish (for most of the second round against Nicolau). Having been a former Rizin champion perhaps increased the search for immediate results because in his first fight he was scheduled against the high ranked Alexandre Pantoja and in his second fight against Matheus Nicolau a former top 10 of the category (fight with controversial result besides that Kape took it in short notice). In Osbourne, Kape faces an opponent who has played the same number of fights in the octagon and despite being 0-2 I think the Angolan-Portuguese is a much more established fighter in the weight category (this would be Osbourne's debut at 125 pounds) plus having a great team behind him like AKA Thailand will allow Kape to correct the mistakes made in the first two fights and he can start climbing in the flyweights.

Feel for Herman, all he gets are up and coming monsters

Erison you asked which of your 5 will lose. I like to base my analysis of that on % of picks by the public. Tapology is a perfect source for that. I think it is either Johns or Munoz, Johns being my true choice. He is getting 92% of the picks and he doesn't deserve that. Natividad is not a good fighter, and Bautista is still raw and has so much growth needed but still caught him dipping his head and KO him AFTER JOHNS'S COACH DISTINCTIVELY TOLD HIM IN THE CORNER 'STOP DIPPING YOUR HEAD' after winning the round. That's messing the money if I've ever seen it. The odds have -200 back to back in Johns and Kape. My rule is no 2 #s cash back to back so one or the other will lose. The reason it won't be Kape is because he is fight Ode in his very 1st 125 fight. Kape has been 125 his entire career and champ in RIzin. Cash out Dos Santos and cash out Kape

* Edited at 08.06.2021, 12:08 AM ET *

Mike rod isn't a monster at all herman opponent previous

Does anyone know why the **** Rogan isn't gonna be here for this ppv? 

I heard he's on a camping trip with diego and stephan bonnar

that Joe Rogan — the longtime color commentator — is expected to miss the pay-per-view event. He is in the middle of a comedy tour and will instead be traveling to Wisconsin for an upcoming show that is scheduled on the same day as the card.

He won't be missed... Dominick Cruz does a better job anyway 

I wouldn't be surprised the main event is controversial bec of the ref...  

I think this card is loaded for a fix.  
everybody picking Kape ... I think Ode is more marketable for the UFC -- so Ode wins.
UFC having a hard time marketability-wise with french speaker Gane...  Derrick wins
Angela Hill talked too much about the judges - Tecia Torres wins by decision
Michael Chiesa has criticized the judging -- if fight goes to decision -- he loses but I think Luque wins by KO 
anyway

There won’t be a fix but judging is always bad

Torres vs. Hill II
Tecia Torres, DEC
Just about going with Torres, she's going to have a very significant speed advantage so I do think that if she utilises this and control the distance she can pick Hill apart. Hill has the power advantage and she does come forward so I think Torres will be fighting off the back foot for the most part. I think Torres can go and win 2 rounds out of 3, I see her just being more active and just getting out of danger too

i for one will not miss joe rogan. and i wouldnt pay a nickel to see his comedy routine. from what ive seen of joe, hes not that funny.

* Edited at 08.06.2021, 6:04 AM ET *