The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Lewis vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, SUB, R4
I think Gane outpoints him and stays relatively safe from the power until derrick gets tired and then takes it to the ground where he is far superior and finds a sub while derrick "just stands up" (which btw he doesnt do as much as that meme suggests). I could see him just outpointing to a decision as well, but there was a guy on reddit saying he would put a bottle of dustins hot sauce up his ass if the black beast gets subbed so i gotta root for that.

Aldo vs. Munhoz
José Aldo, DEC
This is based on a spreadsheet i make, based on their last 5 fights, first of all, the strength of schedule is way better for aldo plus 2 were at a higher weight class.

boring card, worse than most regular tv events

accidently hit save too quickly.......

This is based on a spreadsheet i make, based on their last 5 fights, first of all, the strength of schedule is way better for aldo plus 2 were at a higher weight class. Aldo has controlled 6.83% of the time while he was controlled 16.79%, while 0.83 controlling an 1.15% controlled for munoz, so you can assume its going to stay standing.  aldo has attempted 4 TDs and landed 0, his opponents have attempted 10 and landed 2. for pedro, attempted 1 and landed 0 and his opponents have attempted 25 and landed 3. So, looking at the distance strikes, the total fight seconds divided by the numbers landed/attempted are as follows, DSL for aldo 6.34% with his opponents at 4.92%, with pedro being 10.96% and his opponents at 10.82%. So aldo is landing less often but doing about 150% better than his opponents, keeping in mind the last 5 opponents of each in these numbers. for aldo 55% head, 32% body, and 13% legs is where his strikes land, for pedro, 51%, 18%, 31%. So they land about the same to the head while aldo prefers body shots and munoz prefers leg kicks as a secondary. I think this is a problem for munhoz as aldo is really good at checking leg kicks. He wont do him like he did rivera i believe. So while some of the striking stats favor pedro, when you take into account who these 5 opponents were for both men, i believe ithe numbers arent better enough for pedro to compensate for the different strength of schedule. Pedro is hard to finish obviously so i will take Aldo by decision.  

Interesting analysis, DCP.

Rodriguez vs. Morales
Vince Morales, TKO, R2
Morales has a good right hand. Trust him to get a counter and switch the lights off in round 2.

Herman vs. Menifield
Alonzo Menifield, TKO, R1
Herman is slow and his only path to victory is in the clinch/wrestling. Menifield is going to overwhelm him with strikes.

Kowalkiewicz vs. Penne
Jessica Penne, DEC
Penne to rely on a grappling game plan to hit takedowns and some G&P. Easy decision win.

Kape vs. Osbourne
Manel Kape, TKO, R2
Stand up War! Kape has fought some of the best flyweights. Osbourne remains unproven.

Johns vs. dos Santos
Anderson dos Santos, SUB, R3
Going with the underdog here. Dos Santos poses a serious threat on the ground and might find a way to submit Johns.

Munoz Jr. vs. Simmons
Johnny Munoz Jr., SUB, R1
Munoz has cardio issues but I trust him to get a quick submission win.

Song vs. Kenney
Yadong Song, DEC
This fight is about as 50/50 as it can get. Just about picking Song because I think he has the ability to create a brawl in this fight and that way he can get the better of the boxing exchanges. His boxing is better than Kenney's and he's much more powerful, they match each other with speed but I think Song's boxing is just that bit cleaner. What Song can't do is let Kenney work him from range with the kicks, otherwise he loses but I don't think Kenney has the footwork to deal with the pressure of Song. I think Song can win a close decision but it's so so close

Stats based on their last 5for luque/4 for chiesa (winces that's all he has at WW) I usually try to do the same amount for both but it still works like this. Let's start with the control time stats. Luque has 12.03% control time and controlled 5.62%. he has attempted 2 TDs and landed 0. His oops attempted 7 and landed 2. These 2 were by randy brown and Mike Perry, not the most prolific wrestlers. Chiesa has 81.64% control time, and is controlled 11.06% of the time. So that's almost 93% of his 4 total matches have been spent in clinch or on the ground. He has landed 19 of 25 tdas while is opponents are 2 of 6. Luque has 92.71% of his total strikes at a distance, not too active with his path to victory up close on the ground or in clinch. As far as distance strikes go (divided by total fight seconds) luque is at 11.19% with 10.19% for his oops, while 0.82% for chiesa and his opps. Mostly because the vast majority isn't at distance. But about the same as their oops mostly. To be fair, luque has had a tougher schedule for these stats so you wanna keep that in mind. Luque is a black belt as well, but his preferred sub is the darce choke and that's a sub you don't really get from your back. One thing that luque should implement is leg kicks, as 33% of his landed SS are by legs while 39% of chiesas strikes absorbed are on the legs. Which may stop his evasive movement allowing luque to have success with striking, but I don't know how big of a deal it will be seeing that chiesa and clearly taking it to the ground when he can. So in general I think chiesa has success on the ground and either finds a sub or just wins a decision through control time. 

Kowalkiewicz vs. Penne
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
im aware that its technically not jessica penne's fault that she got gifted a decision win in her last fight that she lost but i'm still annoyed about it. **** jessica penne

DCpredictions
 Have you made all your picks on your account based on your spreadsheet because be cool to see what your pick rate would be based on using it!

No, i do a combination of watching tape and the spreadsheet for the stats. And im a truck driver so when usually i dont have time to do the spreadsheets but its been in the shop for like a week now so i had extra time. Plus i only do the spreadsheet if both guys have at least 3 UFC fights so its usually only like 40-50% of the fights. But they do help with giving me what i wanna look for in the tape. Sometimes i just go by what i know already and do no research. It just depends. Its really just a hobby to keep me busy.

Makes sense, Really good break downs on the fights man

"Song Yadong: Im gonna use more of my grappling against Casey Kenney"

 

Am I the only one who got more confident in Kenney after reading that?

* Edited at 08.05.2021, 3:52 PM ET *

@HiDeff yeah it sounds like he's concerned about having his organs liquefied by those Kenney body kicks. He's gonna get outwrestled if he tries to grapple though, a standup dec win was Song's best path to victory here.

Lewis vs. Gane
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R1
Hoping Derek can land a good shot this title fight shouldn't even be happening if there's one person who deserves it with all the work they put in over the years it's Lewis

It is gonna be a bit of a shame when Gane just kinda boosts himself over Derrick Lewis' 15 years of hard work, straight into a title shot. Both palms on Derrick's head, just hoisting himself over the fence.

I know I shouldn't blame Herman for the mess in the last fight, but I still want him to lose...

He cheated to steal money directly from his opponent but you don't blame him?

no. The reason the Ref is in there is to make that call. Secondly how would Herman be at fault for Mrods 7 minute gas tank and melting in the third round?

Lewis vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, TKO, R3
I have to go with Gane here. Of course Lewis has that knockout power but Gane is very technical and will just pick Lewis apart. Gane is going to finish Lewis with a leg kick to the body.

Aldo vs. Munhoz
José Aldo, DEC
This fight is so hard to call but I’m siding with Aldo here. Aldo is still really good and I think he will take rounds 1 and 2 but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Aldo start off strong and take round 1 but then slow down and drop 2 and 3.  

Luque vs. Chiesa
Vicente Luque, TKO, R1
I don’t really know who to pick here. I’m going with Luque though because I see him stuffing the takedowns and keeping this standing. If this stays standing, Chiesa is going to sleep.

Torres vs. Hill II
Tecia Torres, DEC
I think Torres is better and she will show that on Saturday. I think Hill is good but she struggled against Ashley Yoder recently. We all know Yoder isn’t good at all.

Song vs. Kenney
Casey Kenney, DEC
Both are very good prospects but I’m going with Kenney here. Kenney will break Song.

Fiziev vs. Green
Rafael Fiziev, DEC
Fiziev is the man. Green is pretty good as well but he makes so many mistakes in the octagon and you can’t be doing that against Fiziev.

Rodriguez vs. Morales
Drako Rodriguez, DEC
Even though Rodriguez got knocked out in his last fight, I’m still siding with him here. Morales is not good.

Herman vs. Menifield
Alonzo Menifield, TKO, R1
Herman is old now and Menifield is either going to knock Herman out, or gas out. I think he gets the ko in round 1. Herman has very slow movements.

Kowalkiewicz vs. Penne
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
So many question marks here but I’m going with Karolina. If her head is in the game, she is levels above Penne.

Kape vs. Osbourne
Ode Osbourne, TKO, R1
I like Osbourne to get the job done early here. I know mostly everyone is on Kape again but I just don’t see it with him. Kape may have the higher potential but I think Osbourne finishes him.

Johns vs. dos Santos
Miles Johns, DEC
Johns is younger and only getting better. Dos Santos is pretty good but Johns will get the job done by decision. I don’t see him finishing dos Santos.

Leonardo vs. Gatto
Melissa Gatto, SUB, R1
We don’t know how Gatto is going to look after a long layoff but I think she’s better than Leonardo in everything besides striking. Gatto sucks at striking but I think she will get this to the mat and sub Leonardo.

Munoz Jr. vs. Simmons
Johnny Munoz Jr., DEC
Munoz Jr. isn’t the best but he should be able to easily beat Simmons. Let’s be honest, Simmons shouldn’t be at the UFC. Easy night in the office for Johnny.

* Edited at 08.05.2021, 6:16 PM ET *