UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
Volkanovski gonna make us hate him for being a boring champ

Shevchenko vs. Murphy
Valentina Shevchenko, TKO, R4
however she wants

Lawler vs. Diaz II
Nick Diaz, SUB, R4
STOCKTON, ************! STOCKTON!

Blaydes vs. Rozenstruik
Curtis Blaydes, DEC
dry hump to vicrory

Andrade vs. Calvillo
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R2
Andrade's a tank

Moraes vs. Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili, TKO, R2
Dam they doing Magic dirty lol

Hooker vs. Haqparast
Dan Hooker, TKO, R3
hoookah

Abdurakhimov vs. Daukaus
Chris Daukaus, TKO, R1
yep

Modafferi vs. Santos
Taila Santos, TKO, R1
I'll never bet or predict Roxi

Semelsberger vs. Sano
Matt Semelsberger, TKO, R1
Very confident in Matt for this one. He has the better boxing, he has the better cardio, the better wrestling. I think he finishes this one early, Sano will come forward but his hands are quite sloppy and Matt has very good timing and power on his shots, I think Sano might walk into something powerful here

Looks like Haqparasts visa will be approved for pick up tomorrow and he will be leaving for Vegas. 

Terrence McKinney offered to fight Hooker if Nasrat can't make it lol and he's in Vegas waiting around 

https://twitter.com/aaronbronsteter/status/1440283477446848521?s=21

* Edited at 09.21.2021, 8:12 AM ET *

Only reason i want Nasrat to make it is everything he is going thru, but Hooker vs McKinney would be bonkers !!! Lol

Maximov vs. Roberson
Nick Maximov, SUB, R1
We've seen Roberson in the past struggle with grapplers, it's just been a common occurance in his career and he's fighting another one here. Unless he can prove that his TDD is much better I just don't see him winning. Maximov has very good top control and Roberson can get taken down quite easily. I think Maximov gets this down and he ends up finding the sub early

I think the Sano breakdowns are pretty funny. Unless you guys have some secret footage of the guy in the last 4 years I have no idea how people are so confident in breaking down someones technique from 4 years ago on tape. The guy could look like a completely different fighter from 4 years ago. 


4 years ago Charles Oliveira lost 3 of 4 fights and was labeled a quitter. Now he's the champion. Alot can change when someones training 4 years behind closed doors. He could be the same guy. Or he could look like a world beater and ruin a bunch of parlays with Semelsberger

If Sano is +200 or higher I'm betting on him, like throwing darts in the dark

well you're in luck cause hes currently sitting between +350 to+400 depending where you play it 

So now we are gonna act like Michael Chandler doesnt hit hard and it's embarrassing to get KO'd by him?? Go watch it again. Chandler landed clean on his chin and Hooker was not asleep. He was on his butt and curled up to defend himself and the ref stopped it. It's not like he fell flat on his face or back and was out cold. He got right to his feet. 


Where did this foolish notion come from that chins detoriorate? Can anyone name me a fighter in the history of ever where that is the truth? 

* Edited at 09.21.2021, 12:44 PM ET *

So does Calvillo train with TAM or TMT, or both?

Baldric Eggling Nasrat is +120... I agree he should be +250 because he's not on this level. Dober hits like a truck... yea and he's also very easy to hit. Who else has Nasrat fought that had a real chance of putting him to sleep? Rafa hahaha? That fight vs Rafa honestly is embarrassing for Nasrat. He lost the 1st round unanimously to a guy on 1 weeks notice that then loses to Gruetzmacher. Was Alex Munoz supposed to KO Nasrat hahaha? You're about to be introduced to the death by a thousand knees kinda guy named The Hangman
CrimsonChinGuru as you said he almost finished Poirier, but not only that, if it was a 3 round fight, Hooker would've won UNANIMOUSLY 

* Edited at 09.21.2021, 12:51 PM ET *

HiDefff Semels is not a -350 vs ANYBODY IN THE WORLD. And this coming me, the guy who cashed on Semelsberger 60 secs KO vs Witt +1100 and 1st round +500 His grappling is a huge question mark... BUT IT IS PPV. Favorites tend to get set up on PPV cards 

I agree. Semels is good but i just cant see how you line this fight that wide when there's no evidence of Sano in the last 4 years. 

With that being said, I'm not in many competitions so I will tell that I am on Roxy +300. I love when I keep seeing people say "I won't pick or predict Roxanne to win".... ctfu You guys just tell me where the casino will be taking money, tapology has been so good to me. 

Those Sano odds are huge, I bet it'll be even worse on Saturday, I can't wait to put a little money and hope haha

One of my biggest fears on this card is Calvillo also proving us wrong. She may not win but she could kill all the casual 1st round ko tickets. She's gotten punched in the face by taller and longer women like Marina and Katlyn and proved to us she's a fighter but for some reason just has to lose in the 1st.... 

Andrade is not even a fast starter and is smaller than Calvillo. Andrade has 2 1st round KOs SINCE JOINING UFC IN 2013 against Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Katlyn Chookagian (who was winning the round and got hit with a counter to the body). I guess that doesnt matter tho....

* Edited at 09.21.2021, 1:01 PM ET *

Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
Volkanovski's underrated game is very solid, and if he should manage to defend Ortega's submission attempts, I can see him winning a very comfortable decision here. The champ is just more experienced and well rounded on this one and has faced better competition, so I think it'll be tough for Ortega to get that belt.

Shevchenko vs. Murphy
Valentina Shevchenko, DEC
At this point I just can't see anyone at 125 beating Shevchenko.Valentina is arguably the best skilled fighter on UFC rooster, with absolutely no wholes in her game and incredible speed. Murphy is tough, durable and big for this division, so I think she can go 5 rounds with the champ, even tho she'll lose a one sided decision.

Lawler vs. Diaz II
Nick Diaz, DEC
This is a very unpredictable fight between 2 veterans who are way past their primes but at the same time it has potential to be FOTN. I do see this being a very close fight and going the 5 rounds, but I'll side with Diaz to win his comback only cause Lawler looked like he didn't wanna be there in his last performances.

Blaydes vs. Rozenstruik
Curtis Blaydes, TKO, R2
A fight between 2 huge heavyweights so I'm guessing this won't go the distance. Both of these guys have a lot of power but I believe that if Blaydes plays smart and doesn't make the same mistake he did against Lewis, he could put Rozenstruik light's out, as he is the better experienced fighter out of these 2.

Andrade vs. Calvillo
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R3
I honestly think that Andrade is just better than Calvillo anywhere this fight might go. Cynthia can't stand with her and she'll have problems dealing with Jessica's physical strength and wrestling so I do predict a dominant performance from the former strawweight champ.

Moraes vs. Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
Marlon just hasn't looked his best on his last appeareances and I fear that it's because he's past his prime. On the other hand, Merab is a prospect on the rise with great cardio and wrestling, so I'm expecting another dominant performance from the Georgian fighter this Saturday.

Hooker vs. Haqparast
Dan Hooker, DEC
This looks like a fight that Hooker can win confortably, however both fighters seem to be having troubles into getting to the USA which should affect their sleep schedule and weight cut so I'm guessing this will go 3 round as we won't see the best versions of themselves inside the octagon.

Abdurakhimov vs. Daukaus
Chris Daukaus, TKO, R1
Daukaus is overall a younger and hungrier fighter than Abdurakhimov. If Chris can close the distance early on in the fight and starts throwing bombs, he should be able to put Shamil's lights out...

Modafferi vs. Santos
Taila Santos, DEC
I do love Roxy and I'm predicting this to be a way closer fight than what the odds are saying. However, Santos is a very exciting young prospect who's been displaying a complete gameplan and an amazing gas tank, which could give her an edge over the veteran Modafferi.

Medic vs. Turner
Uros Medic, TKO, R2
This is a very interesting fight between 2 young prospects who are very agressive and always chasing the finish whether it's on the ground or on the feet. I do have some doubts about Turner's chin, especially with this cut to 155, so if the Serbian fighter can close the distance, he could give Jalin a lot of troubles with his heavy shots.

Fiorot vs. Bueno Silva
Manon Fiorot, DEC
This fight is an exciting clash of styles where we have Fiorot as the excellent striker and Bueno Silva as the jiu jitsu specialist. I do believe that the power advantage resides with Mayra, however she is a bit slow in her striking which could benefit a lot Manon if she defends the takedowns. Hate the odds on this one, cause both fighters have a great chance of winning this.

Maximov vs. Roberson
Nick Maximov, SUB, R2
Maximov may be undefeated but he hasn't exactly faced the greatest competition in MMA. He does, however, display high class jiu jitsu skills which he could use to win this fight. Roberson does seem to have some wholes in his submission defense and it's probably not the best idea for him to fight a ground specialist like Nick.

Semelsberger vs. Sano
Matt Semelsberger, TKO, R1
This fight feels like a weird mismatch to me, where Sano hasn't fought in over 4 years and is now debuting in the UFC against a guy as good as Semelsberger who is way more experienced and overall talented. I don't have much to say except that I'm expecting a quick finish from Matt.

Morales vs. Pearce
Omar Morales, DEC
Morales has only lost via decision to Giga Chikadze, so I do predict a solid decision win from him on Saturday night as I expect him to use his reach advantage over the explosive Pearce in order to keep the distance and piece him up a bit.

LETS ******* GOOOOOOOOOOOO

Semelsberger vs. Sano


I dont get why Semelsberger such a huge favorite, his ufc wins are over minus and witt, 1 of those has one of the worst chins in the ufc and the other one was cut in january. I think he should be a favorite but def not -550 or whatever he is now. Sano is a big question mark for sure, hasnt fought since 2017 and hasnt won since 2014. He only got the call because hes training partners with nick diaz, and if you take a look at similar situations to sano they havent ended good. Artem Lobov went 2-5 and only was in the ufc because of conor, Carlos Ulberg is a recent one, and ofcourse Chris Avila. The good things about Sano is that he is not that old he is still only 30 even after all that time off and usually when young prospects take years off and come back they usually look way better than before, Claudio Puelles is a good example of that. Sano also has a win over Geoff Neal which ages greatly. Sano a few years ago looked in great shape and I expect him to look even better. Sanos loses have been to a 6-3 fighter and a ufc vet so its not like hes losing to bums. I will wait to bet on Sano as I think people are gonna keep betting Semelsberger just off of the Sano side which in MMA betting that is a bad thing to do, I did this in the past and it bit me in the ass, like Camur vs Nicolae or Rafa Garcia vs Gruetzmacher, both of those fights i bet because of how bad one side is not how good one side is. Sano can easily upset a lot of parlays saturday and I expect him to be around +600 when the fight starts. Cant wait to cash it.

Hooker vs. Haqparast
Nasrat Haqparast, TKO, R3
Nasrat hits like a truck. They both don't have the greatest defense. I could see Dan getting tired after a hard weight cut in a plane