Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson

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02.04.2021 | 9:07 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 05.08.2021 at 06:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN | Prelims: ESPN+
  • Name: UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
  • Also Known As: UFC Vegas 26
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC APEX
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Daniel Cormier, Dominick Cruz
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Daniel Cormier
  • TV Ratings: 741,000 avg. viewers
  • MMA Bouts: 9
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Marina Rodriguez   defeats   Michelle Waterson-Gomez   via Decision, Unanimous   5 Rounds, 25:00 Total Bout Page
Alex Morono   defeats   Donald Cerrone   via KO/TKO, Punches (standing TKO)   4:40 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Neil Magny   defeats   Geoff Neal   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Marcos Rogério de Lima   defeats   Maurice Greene   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Gregor Gillespie   defeats   Diego Ferreira   via KO/TKO, Ground and Pound   4:51 Round 2 of 3, 9:51 Total Bout Page
Phil Hawes   defeats   Kyle Daukaus   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Michael Trizano   defeats   Ľudovít Klein   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Jun Yong Park   defeats   Tafon Nchukwi   via Decision, Majority   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Carlston Harris   defeats   Christian Aguilera   via Submission, Anaconda Choke   2:52 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page

Responses Page 8

Thewelshguy1998
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05.05.2021 | 1:55 AM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 0 Perfect, 200 Points   |   Tied for 2508th

Magny and neal not even in co-main? Ufc decided to be woke instead for the main event, and also after the niko price fight, watch Dana in the post fight press conference, even back then in september he was saying that Donald should think about hanging the gloves up, he's a legend let's not tarnish that 
Thewelshguy1998
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05.05.2021 | 1:57 AM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 0 Perfect, 200 Points   |   Tied for 2508th

Hawes and daukas should be higher up too
MuMu
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05.05.2021 | 3:36 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 9 Winners, 3 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 234th

If all cool-on-paper fights were put higher in the card, who the hell would watch Prelims?
Thewelshguy1998
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05.05.2021 | 3:43 AM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 0 Perfect, 200 Points   |   Tied for 2508th

Yeah I guess it's smart marketing wise
thebluedash
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05.05.2021 | 9:04 AM ET

Predictions: 5 of 9 Winners, 4 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 279th

Benoit is a pretty safe bet, I know his record isn't pretty at all. But he's been fighting good competition, competitive with Tim Elliot, very close fight with Helli Alateng, split with Brandon Moreno. 

Adashev on the other hand has not looked very good. He has had a pretty extensive kickboxing career however he has not won a single stand up bout in the UFC and if you watched his past matches in which he won against this one 3-1 guy, he was losing round 1. He got knocked out by Nam on the feet, he got outclassed by Mudaerji on the feet. For a kickboxer, he has not looked very good on the feet. Benoit's record is ugly but so is Adashev but it's just the level of competition imo that really puts the stamp in betting on Benoit. Especially since he's barely a favorite so get the line while it last.

* Edited at 05.05.2021, 9:05 AM ET *

"Don't follow my bets, it's probably wrong."

pedrotacuara
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05.05.2021 | 9:24 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 3 Perfect, 300 Points   |   Tied for 1207th

Ribas vs. Hill
Amanda Ribas, SUB, R2

Ribas is a great grappler. Ribas has always been hungry to rise up the rankings and nine years younger than Hill.

Hill is technical striker and Ribas has lost twice to KO, but Hill famously doesn't have KO power. 

Almost all of Hill's losses are against grapplers. Ribas said recently she made a mistake going away from the grappling gameplan against Marina and is going to be more agressive and alert, looking to fully use her great judo. 

At a slight favorite and with a clear path to victory, Ribas is a lock for me and I'm looking to continue my recent fortune of favoring great Brazilian grapplers (last one, Mackenzie Dern)

* Edited at 05.05.2021, 9:28 AM ET *

Card
Card
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05.05.2021 | 9:55 AM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 225 Points   |   Tied for 2197th




DelinquentMMA
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05.05.2021 | 12:50 PM ET

predictions link

Predictions: 2 of 5 Winners, 1 Perfect, 125 Points   |   Tied for 3125th

"Delinquent MMA"

TWJake
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05.05.2021 | 2:54 PM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 2 Perfect, 250 Points   |   Tied for 1856th

@bluedash Adashev didnt look that bad on the feet against sumaderji which is an accomplishment in itself

"I know many a troops that I visit when I went to Iraq in 2005... 2-uh excuse me in 19-or.. 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 2010 2011. I went from the Korwaiten border! All the way up to the Turkish border!" -Tito Ortiz

ImperatorFishrat
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05.05.2021 | 2:56 PM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 2 Perfect, 265 Points   |   Tied for 1723rd

@Card makes sense to me. That's about what I'd expect to see.
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Blackbet25
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05.05.2021 | 3:09 PM ET

@thebluedash

Predictions: 6 of 9 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points   |   Tied for 384th



I have to disagree with Benoit being a “safe bet.” Too close of a fight to get that kind of classification. Both are coming off of two losses, Benoit has seven in seventeen bouts. Adashev got caught cold vs Nam who, in his own right, has plenty of other ko’s on his record to show that he can crack a bit. However, Adashev’s last bout against Su Mudajeri showed he could go the distance with an arguably better striker than Nam, having made a few adjustments. This is striker vs striker, something Adashev has plenty of experience with outside of the UFC, so he should be able to hold his own. For me, close fights are never safe bets, especially considering the state of judging we’ve seen lately. Place carefully.

"They don’t want a man like me to have the title cause I’m not a puppet like that fool up there."

ImperatorFishrat
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05.05.2021 | 3:20 PM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 2 Perfect, 265 Points   |   Tied for 1723rd

@Blackbelt look at who Benoit has lost to. A lot of ballers in there. Including Moreno. He doesn't lose to guys like Adashev.

Adashev is 3-3 fighting regional-tier comp. His wins are against absolute cans. He went to dec against a guy who has literally never won a fight. His KO wins are against 3-2 guys whose wins are also against cans.

Benoit is worth his price, especially for a parlay.
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Tieoken
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05.05.2021 | 3:25 PM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 240 Points   |   Tied for 2041st

Gonna have to side with @Blackbet here, this is a close-ish fight in my opinion on the feet. Adashev has a good kickboxing record. If Benoit can use his MMA experience to grapple when the opportunity presents itself, then he will be a plum to win.

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

ImperatorFishrat
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05.05.2021 | 3:30 PM ET

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 2 Perfect, 265 Points   |   Tied for 1723rd

His kickboxing record has no bearing on his MMA-adapted striking. Have either of you actually watched any of his bouts? The dude just scoots forward spamming hooks. He can only fight in one range. Never takes his head off the center line, never chambers anything. He's basically a more feminine Priscila Cachoiera.  

How do you see him winning? By KO? Benoit has never been KO'ed. Moreno couldn't KO Benoit. By dec? Maybe. He has one Dec win over, again, a guy who has never won a fight in MMA.

yeah....

* Edited at 05.05.2021, 3:33 PM ET *

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Tieoken
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05.05.2021 | 3:57 PM ET

Gotta love cowboy: 10:04 for the laughs

Predictions: 4 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 240 Points   |   Tied for 2041st



* Edited at 05.05.2021, 3:58 PM ET *

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

Aric123
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05.05.2021 | 4:58 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 2 of 7 Winners, 1 Perfect, 125 Points   |   Tied for 3125th

Cerrone vs. Morono
Donald Cerrone, DEC
I personally thought cowboy beat Pettis when they fought. Maybe Pettis had a great night but morono had exactly nothing for Pettis when they fought. If that Alex shows up he will also offer exactly nothing to cowboy. Cowboy has looked old vs top and middle tier talent and with this step down he should be able to get the W.

"“Who ain’t got Jiu Jitsuuu” "

thebluedash
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05.05.2021 | 6:55 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 9 Winners, 4 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 279th

The level of competition between Adashev and Benoit is just too much imo. And just like Fishrat said, have you guys watched his Bellator bouts? He was fighting cans with no wins or sometimes with like 3-1 wins. He's not dominating them. In the bout against Tevin Dyce he was losing the 1st round, and Tevin Dyce is not very good. And this was only 2019, of course he can improve his skillset, but Benoit has a refined one and can actually wrestle or keep up on the feet, he's not a ranked quality guy but he has kept competitive matches with very good guys. Adashev's take down defense is also not good if you look at his fights outside of the UFC.

* Edited at 05.05.2021, 7:40 PM ET *

"Don't follow my bets, it's probably wrong."

mickey420
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05.05.2021 | 7:48 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 3 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 175 Points   |   Tied for 2778th

Benoit vs. Adashev
Ryan Benoit, TKO, R2
Zarrukh Adashev - Sean O Malleys Future Opponent

Blackbet25
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05.05.2021 | 7:49 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 9 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points   |   Tied for 384th

@Fish & @Bluedash


I hear you both on those assessments, fair enough. But here’s the thing for me, I have to see the clear advantages. Yes Benoit has fought some better names/competition than Adashev has. Adashev is still relatively young in his mma career compared to Benoit. And yes, I watch tape on virtually every fighter I make a pick for (not doing so, IMO is not giving yourself a fair chance at making a proper assessment. But to say Benoit is a safe bet or a lock, nah. Is he going to run over Adashev and blow him out of the water in the first? Nah. He hasn’t had a KO of his own in over three years. Is he a better striker than Mudajeri? Nah. Adashev got hurt a few times in that bout and still was able to pull through and not get stopped. My point is, he’s still got room to improve in his mma game, he’s making the adjustments to round himself out. I wouldn’t put Ryan near any of my parlays, even if I did lean towards him. Ryan has lost to all of those better names and probably doesn’t have a higher ceiling. But, this is why we watch. 

"They don’t want a man like me to have the title cause I’m not a puppet like that fool up there."

DamienHandel420
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05.05.2021 | 7:50 PM ET

Duck bets

Predictions: 3 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 190 Points   |   Tied for 2687th


This are my betting Ideas, Do you like them or not. I'm just making a little bit of profit over the last few weeks because the Judges have been mean to me on all the coin flip value  fights I like to put money on. I don't watch tape so i'm interested to know you oppion on this bets as I usually put my bets in the night before

Parley piece favourites- - Try to have 5% implied probilty margin. 
Amanda Ribas 1.53 (65.4%)
I give Ribas at lest 70% and up to 80% chance of beating Hill. She a top 5 women skill wise and is the best grappler in the division and arguably in WMMA with a Judo and Jiu-Jitsu black belt. I would be almost certain she destroys Hill if it wasn't for a chin  But what the chance that a women fighter get slept two fight in a row. Very minimal

Geoff Neal 1.50 (66.6%)
I give Magny virtually no chance in beating Geoff as Magny entire fighting style is clinching and grappling strikers with no takedown defense. Geoff  Neal takedown defence is really good and has 93% takedown defence and the last time he got taken down was in his first UFC fight. Magny stand up never really impress me as dude got piece up by Chiesa on the Feet

Kyle Daukous 1.64  (61%)
I thought Phil Hawes look really bad in his last fight as was lucky the guy he fought was green. I'm still high on Kyle Daukous as dude is a top 25 guy now and i think in the future will be a top 15 guy. Kyle Daukous can also take a beating as if you watch the Brendan Allen fight so Hawes only path to victory being a 1st round Ko is pretty unlikely

Underdogs- More then 10% implied Probilty margin

Carlos Diego Ferriera 2.47 (40.5%)
Im surprise at the odds Tbh. Carlos should be favourite. Really think Gregor is overated as dude was a can crusher and the got merked by Kevin Lee. In this fight Gregor has the luxarary of picking his demise as Carlos  gonna submet Gregor if he try to wresle him as dude almost submented Benny on a few occasion and dude a 3 degre blackbelt in Jiu jitsu and if he try to kept it on his feet, Gregor gonna catch them hands

Mike Trizano 3.00 33.33%

I just think the line on Ludovit Klein is a bit inflated.There a alot of unknown in this fight like how will Trizano look like after 2 years off and how Klein look like if he doesn't get the headkick Ko or if he doesn't miss weight by 5 pounds. I fell like the line is based off the worst possible outcome for Trizano as this fight is close to a pick em.

Prop bets- Honesly the best place to find value if you know what your talking about because they're alway value somewhere 

Maurice Greene Sub 6.00 (16.7%)
This fight is a coin flip as it low level heavyweight and I maybe lean Greene. And Greene main path the victory is submission as Greene win are usually submession and Lima only losses are by Submession. I think it at lest 30% likely it cash so approximately 15% margin is a good  margin 

Cerrone  vs Moreno inside the distance 2.35 (42.6%) or Cerrone  inside the Distance 4.45 (22.5%)
I'm pretty confident in this fight ending inside the distance as Cerrone is a finisher with 9 decsion  out of 36 wins and I'm about 60-65% confendent in Cowboy winning as Moreno clearly lost to Pettis and I think Cerone and Pettis are about the same level. And if Moreno were to win, He probley have to "Old yeller" Cowboy

Daukous sub 4.75 (21.1%)
I like this prop as 8 out of 10 of Daukous wins are by sub, And I'm already pretty high on Daukous winning anyway, 

CDF sub 6.00 (16.7%)
Gregor Gilespe is gonna try and wresle Carlos. I don't see that ending well for him as Diego is a 3 degre black belt, So Good luck on not getting submitted

Ryan Benoit Ko 4.00 (25%)
Ryan Benoit 8 out of his 10 wins are by Ko And Zaruck Adashive is a guy the UFC sign to make other guys look good. Dude is a 3-3 fight in the UFC. Not dumb to have Jobber in you company tho

Phillpe Lin by Decsion 3.25 (30.8%)
Ben Rothwell should be the Underdog, Dude was getting his asskick by Stuve before the ******** **** kick KO and pretty much lost every other fight, Lins ain’t some beast but I think he has enough to win. But Rothwell is also impossible to KO

 

* Edited at 05.05.2021, 8:43 PM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

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