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Topic: UFC 261

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2

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Tapology
Tapology
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01.29.2021 | 2:58 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC 261
  • Saturday 04.24.2021 at 10:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ESPN
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
  • Location: Jacksonville, Florida, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Joe Rogan
  • Ticket Revenue (live gate): $3,300,000
  • Attendance: 15,269
  • PPV Buys / Buyrate: 700,000 | TV Ratings: 951,000 avg. viewers (ESPN prelims)
  • MMA Bouts: 13
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Kamaru Usman   defeats   Jorge Masvidal   via KO/TKO, Right Cross   1:02 Round 2 of 5, 6:02 Total Bout Page
Rose Namajunas   defeats   Weili Zhang   via KO/TKO, Head Kick   1:18 Round 1 of 5 Bout Page
Valentina Shevchenko   defeats   Jéssica Andrade   via KO/TKO, Elbows from Crucifix   3:19 Round 2 of 5, 8:19 Total Bout Page
Uriah Hall   defeats   Chris Weidman   via KO/TKO, Broken Leg   0:17 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Anthony Smith   defeats   Jimmy Crute   via KO/TKO, Doctor Stoppage (Leg Injury)   5:00 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Randy Brown   defeats   Alex Oliveira   via Submission, One-Arm Rear Naked Choke   2:50 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Dwight Grant   defeats   Stefan Sekulić   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Brendan Allen   defeats   Karl Roberson   via Submission, Heel Hook   4:55 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Pat Sabatini   defeats   Tristan Connelly   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Danaa Batgerel   defeats   Kevin Natividad   via KO/TKO, Counter Left Hook   0:50 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Rodrigo Vargas   defeats   Zhu Rong   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Jeff Molina   defeats   Qileng Aori   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Ariane Carnelossi   defeats   Na Liang   via KO/TKO, Ground and Pound from Guard   1:28 Round 2 of 3, 6:28 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 5

Davis410
Davis410
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04.19.2021 | 1:04 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 715 Points   |   48th Place

Carnelossi vs. Liang
Ariane Carnelossi, TKO, R1
Liang has looked lost against decent talent and beaten bums quickly. I watched Liang pull guard vs Agapova and if she tries anything like that to a dangerous girl like Carnelossi she's getting finished in the 1st.

NgannouPunch
NgannouPunch
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04.19.2021 | 2:31 PM ET

I dont feel safe about parlays at all.

Last time I felt safe Petr Yan messed up and Aljo pulled off an Oscar worthy performance.

I didnt add him to any parlays but I was confident Espino would be able to beat Romanov....Then Romanov takes notes from Aljo and pulls off another Oscar worthy acting performance.

Judging has also been pretty bad lately. 

Its gambling you will get good breaks and bad breaks...I think I'll make my weekly donation on Draftkings and chill with the parlays.

Win or loss I still love betting on UFC.
Swallerballs
Swallerballs
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04.19.2021 | 3:01 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 520 Points   |   Tied for 1472nd

@NgannouPunch

I feel you I also had yan on my parlay and it got ****** completely. I've been hitting parlays with ufc lately, I think its about just knowing styles and knowing the fighters and who they face. At the end of the day, that's all you can do because mentally we don't know where they stand so that's the risk we take. 
Thewelshguy1998
Thewelshguy1998
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04.19.2021 | 4:13 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 470 Points   |   Tied for 2158th

It's just so risky betting when they have been at the apex for the past year, I don't know about you guys but I feel like the judging is different at fight island, like what the judges are looking for from the fighters
Speezy Bets
Speezy Bets
  • Location: United States
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04.19.2021 | 4:33 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 0 Perfect, 400 Points   |   Tied for 3017th

This would be her second time defending the belt for those thinking Zhang hasn't defended since earning the belt. 

* Edited at 04.19.2021, 4:34 PM ET *

"Who da fook is this guy?"

ImperatorFishrat
ImperatorFishrat
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04.19.2021 | 5:04 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 570 Points   |   Tied for 809th

China is Asshoe/**** China.

Rooting for Thug Rose.

"Human beings are born with different capacities. If they are free they are not equal; if they are equal they are not free--Alexsander Solzhneitsyn"

DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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04.19.2021 | 5:25 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 570 Points   |   Tied for 794th

I want Rose to win just to see Dana face while he lossing all that sweet China money. And A cherry on top will be if Rose start talking about all the horrible thing the chinese goverment  does 

* Edited at 04.19.2021, 5:25 PM ET *

"Qwack Qwack Qwack"

DoubleUnderHook
DoubleUnderHook
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04.19.2021 | 7:51 PM ET

Main Card Predictions

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 405 Points   |   Tied for 3000th

Usman vs Masvidal
Kamaru Usman, KO/TKO, R3
I think its OK to say that this fight was completely unnecessary. Masvidal was completely dominated by Usman in the first fight and I don't see Masvidal winning in this fight either. Unless Masvidal gets a flash KO, then I think Usman will pressure him with heavy jabs and wrestling him down and get a finish in the R3-4. Hopefully, we get a better fight than first because oh boy the crowd won't happy if its a repeat of the first.


Zhang vs Namajunas
Weili Zhang, KO/TKO, R4
Easily the most interesting and competitive fight in the card. I like Rose and think she can potentially outpoint Weili to close split decision, but I'm having a hard time seeing that happening after the second Andrade fight. Rose was taking a massive damage in 3rd round of that fight. I see Weili pushing the fight early and putting pressure on Rose,  chopping her legs down, cutting her movement space and pushing her against the cage and then pouring in the damage in the later rounds for a finish.


Shevchenko vs Andrade
Shecvchenko, UD, Dec
Most predictable fight in the cards imho. EZ Valentina dominant UD win. Using her height and reach advantage she would just out-strike Andrade with tiny reach. Shevchenko can also just wrestle her down. Only way I see Andrade winning is via a flash KO, but that unlikely to happen. 


Weidman vs Hall
Hall, KO/TKO, R3
This is kind of tough, because I can easily see Weidman just wrestle Hall to a boring UD win. But I'm gonna go with Hall for late finish. I think Weidman has a taken too much damage and his chin is very suspect. I also think Hall had more momentum right now.

Smith vs Crute
Jimmy Crute, KO/TKO, R2
Smith is not the same guy after the beatdowns he took from both Teixiara and Rakic. I see Crute finishing him the 2nd or 3rd round. 


I know I picked all the betting favorites, but like some people before me have said this is a predictable card. You could lock up the favorites and easily win most of the predictions. Let's hope we get some crazy finishes at least.

" >Insert Fighter's Name< doesn't want to fight " - Dana 'The Tomato' White

Thewelshguy1998
Thewelshguy1998
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04.19.2021 | 8:53 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 470 Points   |   Tied for 2158th

Plus it will be a little different now the crowds are coming back it's easy to forget as we have become used to no crowd noise, it effects fights and judging a little imo 
CheckLeftHook
CheckLeftHook
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04.19.2021 | 9:14 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 3523rd

Everyone scores fights weird tho, even professional fighters watching right there on commentary. I've been to three UFC events and there are many fights which looked different to me seeing them live than re-watching them at home in front of a monitor. The two biggest examples I have: to me Gaethje was decisively beating Poirier in their fight, and I thought Vettori beat Adesanya 2-1 in their fight. But after re-watching them at home I saw two completely different fights than what I remember. So my point is, who knows what the judges are seeing that maybe sometimes we're not?

"this dumb **** just copy’s all my moves anyway tryin to get on a bike and swim and ****😂 Bruh u don’t know what the **** your doing"

Aric123
Aric123
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04.19.2021 | 11:04 PM ET

Predictions: 4 of 8 Winners, 1 Perfect, 250 Points   |   Tied for 3907th

I understand why everyone thinks this card is predictable but I can never in confidence believe in my picks for a big ppv lol. This is mma any crazy awesome thing can happen that’s why it’s the best 

"“WAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGHHHHH”- Conor Mcgregor "

Aric123
Aric123
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04.19.2021 | 11:08 PM ET

**** the politics

Predictions: 4 of 8 Winners, 1 Perfect, 250 Points   |   Tied for 3907th

Usa government has and still does awful things as well as the Chinese government. It’s a dumb game with no winners, I’m looking forward to a fight between two champion level fighters. Most governments in this world suck, more power to the people. Hope everyone enjoys the fights maybe we get some banger prelims like the jan vs izzy card 

"“WAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGHHHHH”- Conor Mcgregor "

DoubleUnderHook
DoubleUnderHook
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04.19.2021 | 11:58 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 405 Points   |   Tied for 3000th

My approach to MMA is to treat it as a sport & entertainment and any politics or religious disputes I leave for outside the octagon. Khabib is one of my all time favorites and he's very devout Muslim man. I don't have no problems with Islam (the religion, not the fighter lol), but he has said a lot crazy religious stuff in some his interviews and his IG, but when it comes time to fight I'm always rooting for him to win.

" >Insert Fighter's Name< doesn't want to fight " - Dana 'The Tomato' White

dvlaf99
dvlaf99
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04.20.2021 | 8:16 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 490 Points   |   Tied for 1858th

Usman vs. Masvidal II
Kamaru Usman, DEC
You can argue that Masvidal has a punchers chance but let’s be honest, he’s not knocking out Usman. Usman is going to destroy him every round.

Zhang vs. Namajunas
Weili Zhang, DEC
Rose is top-notch but I think Zhang is a bit better and wins a decision against Rose.

Shevchenko vs. Andrade
Valentina Shevchenko, DEC
Valentina is going to win this fight easily. She is the goat besides Amanda Nunes. Andrade is good but Shevchenko is levels above her.

Weidman vs. Hall II
Uriah Hall, TKO, R1
Uriah is going to clip Weidman early on and that’s going to be it. Hall is better at this point. This could be it for Weidman in the UFC.

Smith vs. Crute
Jimmy Crute, DEC
Smith is a badass but Crute is a talented up-and-comer and I could even see Crute knocking Smith out at some point.

Brown vs. Oliveira
Randy Brown, DEC
Brown will beat Oliveira. I want Oliveira to win but you have to wonder if his heart is even with MMA anymore.

Grant vs. Sekulić
Dwight Grant, TKO, R1
Grant is knocking Sekulić out. He’s “The Body Snatcher” for a reason.

Allen vs. Roberson
Karl Roberson, TKO, R2
Allen looked awful against Strickland and I think he’s going to gas out again and Roberson is going to knock him out.

Connelly vs. Sabatini
Pat Sabatini, DEC
This fight is hard to call but I think Sabatini wrestles him to a decision.

Batgerel vs. Natividad
Danaa Batgerel, TKO, R2
Batgerel is pretty good and I think he shows his skills here against Natividad with a knockout in round 2. I think Natividad has a bright future in the UFC but not right now.

Rong vs. Vargas
Zhu Rong, TKO, R1
Zhu Rong is only 21 years old and he’s going to knock this guy out badly in round 1. Vargas doesn’t belong in the UFC and he won’t be in it after this fight.

Molina vs. Aori
Qileng Aori, DEC
This fight is hard to call but I’m leaning an Aori UD.

Carnelossi vs. Liang
Ariane Carnelossi, DEC
Carnossi is much better. Liang isn’t very good and has fought absolute cans before reaching the UFC. This is why records don’t mean much in MMA.

Tieoken
Tieoken
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04.20.2021 | 11:30 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 420 Points   |   Tied for 2801st

Usman vs. Masvidal II
Kamaru Usman, TKO, R4

Here is Kamaru’s performance in his four championship fights. Notice how he employs different approaches for different fighers. E.g making Colby miss while returning fire with exclusively hard shots or pressuring Burns (2.5 rds) and Woodley (5 rounds) with high output but mixing in his power and jab.

Total Strikes

Sig. Strikes

Striking Defence

Opponent

93/149 (62.4%)

83/136 (61%)

59%

Gilbert Burns

263/341 (77.1%)

94/151 (62%)

48%

Jorge Masvidal

175/360 (48%)

175/360 (48%)

64%

Colby Covington

336/390 (86%)

141/194 (72%)

35%

Tyron Woodley

* Edited at 04.20.2021, 11:44 AM ET *

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

Tieoken
Tieoken
  • Member Since: 2015.07.05
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04.20.2021 | 11:45 AM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 420 Points   |   Tied for 2801st

Annnnd here is a comparison of his opponent’s performances against him versus against their most recent opponent who isn’t Kamaru. You can clearly see the drop off where he effectively ruins the offence or defense of his opponents to ruin THEIR performances. The best thing about Kamaru isn’t how well he performs per say, but how well he ruins his opponents gameplans.

Performance Comparisons

Kamaru Usman

Most Recent Opponent

Off*Def ratio

Off*Def ratio

Gilbert Burns

.16

.34

Jorge Masvidal

.20

.37

Colby Covington

.19

.32

Tyron Woodley

.18

.62


"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

Thewelshguy1998
Thewelshguy1998
  • Member Since: 2021.02.22
  • Predictions:  148  |  56.8%
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04.20.2021 | 1:29 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 470 Points   |   Tied for 2158th

Weili zhang , thug rose, jess andrade and valentina shevchenko are really the only women mma fighters I get excited about watching if I'm honest and I think one of the womens fights this weekend will be fotn
Oh yeah and Amanda nunes when it's not one sided
el_tabarnako
el_tabarnako
  • Location: Quebec City
  • Member Since: 2020.12.08
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04.20.2021 | 1:50 PM ET

AND STILL... x3

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 0 Perfect, 380 Points   |   Tied for 3210th




"If you don't know, now you know"

Kcoh MMA
Kcoh MMA
  • Location: Chi
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04.20.2021 | 2:42 PM ET

?

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 440 Points   |   Tied for 2551st

Have you watched any tape on Aori and Molina? If not then its.obvious your falling into the padded Asian fighters side. Watch the last fight he lost and the rematch he barely won. The style of Molina Is a cryptonite to this Asian bust

"All I smell is blood"

Kcoh MMA
Kcoh MMA
  • Location: Chi
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  • Predictions:  167  |  68.3%
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  • Post Score: -670

04.20.2021 | 2:44 PM ET

Tape

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 440 Points   |   Tied for 2551st

Watch tape and you will realize how bad aori is as a fighter in general. And if he can't get takedowns and control fights he gets rolled. MOLINA has to good tdd and striking to lose to this Asian bust who hasn't fought out of a terrible Asian league in 5 years. MOLINA EASY DUBS AND TAPE STUDY SHOWS THIS

"All I smell is blood"

Page 5


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