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12.21.2020 | 8:19 PM ET
Let me Start, I find it insane it like 4 days to Chrismas , Im suprise it so close to the end of the Year, Fells like Junes.Anyone have anything cool plan for Chrissy, I’m probley just gonna mess around at the gym
* Edited at 12.21.2020, 8:52 PM ET *
"Quack quack quack"
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01.28.2022 | 10:58 PM ET
I'm 23 and have absolutely no experience in the stock market. The bits I do understand come from the odd sentence or so of your stock related posts that I do manage to understand and the movie Trading Places.
* Edited at 01.28.2022, 10:58 PM ET *
"I wish you good luck but I don't want you to rely on luck"
01.28.2022 | 11:16 PM ET
"Dont take life too serious, you will never make it out alive."
01.28.2022 | 11:32 PM ET
The answer to what is the stock market would require a huge explanation. So I'll just give you an example of what I'm talking about:
Let's say you had 2000 GBP.
You could have either put that money in a savings account, or invested in the SPY. Basically, this is an index fund that tracks the S&P 500, which is an aggregate of the world 500 biggest market cap companies in the world. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon etc.
So say in 2019, you put 2000 dollars in a savings account, and you wanted to spend it on groceries in 2021. You would need 2074$ thereabouts (conservatively, the rate of inflation is much worse than this % increase in real terms) to buy the same amount of groceries that you could have in the year 2019.
But let's say you invested 2000$ in the SPY in 2019. By the end of 2021, you'd have 3580$. However, this does reflect large volatility in the time period, the usual SPY return is not nearly anything close that high. However, the SPY will always outperform inflation.
So by 'saving' money, you end up losing money. Does this make sense? There's an old saying that I believe is true enough; time in the market beats timing the market.
You're probably thinking 'what's the catch'? Well, the catch is the 'stock market' could crash. But for that to happen, absolutely cataclysmic destructive market pressure would need to occur or everybody would decide to throw all their money in the sea. If that happened....well, money would be the least of your worries. Put it that way. As I said I do expect a big and nasty market correction this year so buying the SPY at ATH right now isn't something I'd recommend. Or really a whole lot of anything tech-heavy, the entire market is a bubble due to obscene levels of overspeculation and every company on the index is overvalued and overlevered, horribly. Wait til blood runs in the streets and get it on sale.
* Edited at 01.28.2022, 11:56 PM ET *
01.28.2022 | 11:55 PM ET
You know what caused the 30's depression? A stock market crash caused by exactly the same kinds of overspeculation seen in the market right this minute. Literally exactly the same. However, we no longer live in that world--theoretically, at least, and we have quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve printing endless monopoly money. But something has to give eventually.
When? No idea. Maybe at negative interest rates.
* Edited at 01.28.2022, 11:59 PM ET *
01.29.2022 | 12:05 AM ET
#Thetagang
01.29.2022 | 1:47 PM ET
SPY
OK let me get this straight. SPY is basically shares of multiple business in the top 500? So by buying a share of SPY, I'd be buying small shares in every noteworthy business like Amazon, Microsoft ect? Like buying a mixed selection box of sweets? And this roughly balanes out to make a small profit? And I should use this instead of a savings account? But don't buy a share now as we don't know how the market will correct itself but maybe buy later? In that case, what indicators would I need to look for to tell when the right time to invest in SPY is?
* Edited at 01.29.2022, 1:50 PM ET *
"I wish you good luck but I don't want you to rely on luck"
01.29.2022 | 1:54 PM ET
The link between the stock market and the economy
As for the link between the stock market and the economy. You said that the stock market isn't indicative of a strong economy but wouldn't a strong economy be good for the stock market? If so, how is it that the economy affects the stock market but the stock market doesn't affect the economy? How does it not work both ways? Or am I completely misunderstanding this part?
"I wish you good luck but I don't want you to rely on luck"
01.29.2022 | 2:00 PM ET
General investing to try and make a profit
So supposing I've got shares in SPY to fall back on and I become financially secure enough to risk losing some money by investing in companies. Firstly, by buying a stock in a company, I become a shareholder in that company right? If so, what sort of business decisions that they might make would I need to know about in order judge what direction they're headed? I think basically I'm asking how well I'd need to know that business in order to get an accurate picture of how it will perform? On the flip side, what are some red flags that I'd need to look out for to decide not to invest?
"I wish you good luck but I don't want you to rely on luck"
01.29.2022 | 3:19 PM ET
On point B, not really. At all. The reason for this is that when the **** hits the fan economically speaking, retail investors (that's you and me) and Wall Street (the real boys) both tend to park their money in the stock market as a hedge against inflation and the time decay of cash, which drives up the value of indexes like the SPY and kind of everything else. Boomers love doing this, especially with tech stocks.
This results in what is referred to as a 'bull market'; the value of indexes and individual stocks rises very rapidly, and they make everybody look like a genius until they don't. This happens at a reasonable clip even when the **** doesn't hit the fan. All that needs for this to occur is people thinking, en masse, that the **** is going to hit the fan. It's a complicated picture, but it's linked to the fact the Federal reserve will always drop interest rates when things get tough, which inspires people to take more risks with cash on the market ( when they should be spending it on stuff in the general economy) bonds, and on and on. This isn't a very good answer to your question, but I woke up about 30 minutes ago and don't really have the energy to do a big breakdown just yet. I'll say this: The thing about money is that you can't...how can I put this, do anything with it. You can't eat it, drink it, make it into houses, etc. Money has no intrinsic value. It has extrinsic value. Money has value because we collectively agree that it does. You can print as much money as you like, but you can't print goods and services. People can be starving in the streets and the stock market could be breaking records, concomitantly. Buying pieces of a company that makes things or performs services is not the same as buying the made things and services produce by those companies.
On point C, the short answer to that question is yes, but not all stakes you can buy in a stock are shares. But yes, for you, 99.9% of the time, that is what you will be doing. This is another question requiring a huge answer. They are methods of analysis traders use to determine if a stock is 'worth its price'. These are often referred to as 'the fundamentals'. Cash flow, cash on hand, earnings reports, moats, debt-to-equity, P-value, patents/copyright ownership, contracts, pre-market activity, volume, market cap/share and on and on and on.
However--and this is a big however--the thing that you need to critically understand--is that the market value of a company often has absolutely nothing to do with how well it checks the boxes in terms of the fundamentals and the fundamentals have nothing to do with the valuation of a stock price. Remember what I just said about money? Well, so it is the case with stocks. A company can be an absolute ************* and still fetch an absurdly high price on the market. GME is a case in point. It's currently trading at US 97$ per share when really it should be a penny stock, because it's garbage and legitimately arrived on the doorstep of liquidation by failing to adapt to the changing video game market. Why is the price so high? Because people believe that it should be, and collectively decided as a massive group to start buying it hand over fist, never selling it, causing huge demand for shares in it which caused its stock price to go to the moon. What determines a stock's price isn't fundamentals. It's how many people decide to buy it.
By sheer force of collective belief, the value of GME was made real. Traders often refer to this as 'The Tinkerbell effect':
The Tinkerbell effect is an American English expression describing things that are thought to exist only because people believe in them. The effect is named after Tinker Bell, the fairy in the play Peter Pan, who is revived from near death by the belief of the audience.
At your age, and level of experience in the market, you should be investing only in ETF's. I have given you exactly enough information for you to hurt yourself should you decide to go out and try and pick individual stocks. You could even buy the SPY right now and still be fine in the long term even though I believe there is a correction coming. That's just what I believe. It might not even happen.
The first thing you need to do is open a trading account. I'm with IG. Don't use them, they suck balls. Use CMC markets. Better interface, better customer service. Just a better brokerage all round. They also have a feature where you can practice trade, which is a great way to learn to read patterns and develop investment savvy before fronting real money.
Edit: If you want me to write a post on trading mentality, I will do that, but only if you actually care.
* Edited at 01.29.2022, 4:59 PM ET *
01.29.2022 | 5:15 PM ET
"Cowards die many times before their deaths; The valiant never taste of death but once." - Julius Caesar.
01.29.2022 | 5:18 PM ET
* Edited at 01.29.2022, 5:19 PM ET *
01.29.2022 | 5:20 PM ET
"Cowards die many times before their deaths; The valiant never taste of death but once." - Julius Caesar.
01.29.2022 | 5:21 PM ET
My advice? Drink those beers until you're sloshed, rub up a boner and start coming on to her.
01.29.2022 | 5:23 PM ET
"I am the greatest blonde man in the world. I am Tru Viking." - Alexander Gustaffsson / "The world must bow to my glory. I am a God amongst mortals. They must pay me tribute in wine and concubine for my deeds." - Jon Jones "
01.29.2022 | 5:24 PM ET
"Cowards die many times before their deaths; The valiant never taste of death but once." - Julius Caesar.
01.29.2022 | 5:26 PM ET
To give you an actual number i can't legally drive yet
* Edited at 01.29.2022, 5:28 PM ET *
"Cowards die many times before their deaths; The valiant never taste of death but once." - Julius Caesar.
01.29.2022 | 5:26 PM ET
“ Before you 'trust the science', do your due diligence. Do not take any advice, recommendation or protocol issued by and bureaucracy on face value. Compare. Contrast. Read the white papers.”
That’s a really cute idea. But like, you do know that nobody outside of someone who has spent years in the field can even understand the difference between comically fraudulent data and a real published work. Telling regular people to “do their own research” into something like, ohhh let’s say vaccines, is just asking for an ape to use it’s own feces to paint the Mona Lisa and expecting the ape to learn something from the effort.
"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner
01.29.2022 | 5:27 PM ET
"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner
01.29.2022 | 5:28 PM ET
01.29.2022 | 5:33 PM ET
I mean tbf my county is still ******, have you ever seen Gosport?
Just realised most people don't know what Gosport is, basically town outside of Portsmouth were your more likely to get stabbed then see a girl who doesn't make you vomit.
* Edited at 01.29.2022, 5:39 PM ET *
"Cowards die many times before their deaths; The valiant never taste of death but once." - Julius Caesar.