Topic: UFC Fight Night
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
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11.16.2020 | 3:59 PM ET
Responses Page 11
02.19.2021 | 5:10 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 365 Points | Tied for 1117th
I agree with Xconchris. If you know there's no way you're making weight, just scratch.
Alves walks around at 190. A fit man cutting 20% of his body weight is not something any doctor would recommend. The fight was a tragedy waiting to happen, and I'm glad it's off. Still 14 bouts - not bad.
"I'm not on your side. I'm not on his side. I'm on the side or being right. - Richard Harrison Sr"
02.19.2021 | 6:22 PM ET
Predictions: 4 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 215 Points | Tied for 2997th
"Dont take life too serious, you will never make it out alive."
02.19.2021 | 6:24 PM ET
^
Predictions: 3 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 195 Points | Tied for 3240th
02.19.2021 | 6:28 PM ET
Predictions: 4 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 215 Points | Tied for 2997th
"Dont take life too serious, you will never make it out alive."
02.19.2021 | 6:31 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 4 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 290 Points | Tied for 2265th
Curtis Blaydes, TKO, R4
I think Blaydes will be made to work for the win here. Lewis has a good chin and is at the same sort of level as Blaydes as far as I'm concerned but I don't know if he will survive the later rounds. If it were only over 3 rounds then I might be tempted to pick Lewis for a decision but I don't know if he can put up with Blaydes's power for 5 rounds. He won't make it easy for Blaydes and it should be much closer than a lot of people are expecting it to be. FOTN
Vieira vs. Kunitskaya
Ketlen Vieira, SUB, R3
Vieira weighed in heavier so I think she will use that to her advantage and submit Kunitskaya after wearing her down over 3 rounds
Minner vs. Rosa
Charles Rosa, SUB, R2
It will be close but sooner or later Minner will make a mistake that Rosa will be able to capitalise on and get a submission. I think that is most likely to happen in the 2nd round if Minner starts to relax a little bit and give Rosa the opportunity
Oleinik vs. Daukaus
Chris Daukaus, TKO, R1
Oleinik's most obvious path to victory here is by a submission but Daukaus is good enough to defend any takedown attempts that Oleinik might try and counter them by striking. Oleinik will find himself out of his depth here
Imavov vs. Hawes
Phil Hawes, DEC
This is a toss a coin fight in my view and I think that Hawes will be able to use his power to keep Imavov in check but won't be able to checkmate him. I can see Imavov being on the back foot for most of the fight but having good moments himself and he may win one of the rounds but Hawes will be a bit too much for him here
Arlovski vs. Aspinall
Andrei Arlovski, DEC
Arlovski is going to shock us again and I refuse to be shocked so I'm siding with the old man!
Gordon vs. Chavez
Danny Chavez, TKO, R2
It's an even fight but in this situation, I can't ignore the fact that Chavez is on a 4 fight win streak with 3 of them being KO's
Klose vs. Pena
Drakkar Klose, DEC
This will be Klose!
Wineland vs. Castañeda
Eddie Wineland, DEC
If Wineland were a few years younger then I'm sure he'd get a finish here but Castañeda will be a bit too energetic for him however I wasn't too impressed with Castañeda on his UFC debut so I don't think he can win against someone like Wineland and I'm not sure he's good enough to be in the UFC at all. Because of those reasons, I feel compelled to pick Wineland for a decision here
Erosa vs. Landwehr
Nate Landwehr, TKO, R2
I see this fight as two completely different fighting styles colliding and I think the winner will be determined by who can adapt to their opponent's game plan more effectively and I think that Landwehr will be able to survive Erosa's grappling and find a KO. I think it will be a similar fight to the Oleinik v Daukaus fight with the striker beating the grappler
Dobson vs. O'Neill
Casey O'Neill, DEC
Extremely one-sided unanimous decision win for O'Neill here. I expect her to control every single second of this fight
Skelly vs. Emmers
Chas Skelly, SUB, R1
If Skelly gets off to a good start then I can see him finishing Emmers early. The more the fight goes on, the more likely it becomes that Emmers will win a decision but I think Skelly will use his energy effectively at the start of the fight to find an early submission
Zahabi vs. Rodriguez
Drako Rodriguez, DEC
Rodriguez looked good on Dana White's Contender Series but the UFC is a different ball game. This will be a challenge for him but Zahabi seems to be becoming a sort of gatekeeper to test prospects against and I think Rodriguez will pass this test
Spivak vs. Vanderaa
Sergey Spivak, SUB, R2
Vanderaa will make it out of round 1 but he would've used up most of his energy doing so. I'd expect Spivak to capitalise on this in the round 2
"We fall but we get up because the ground is no place for a champion - Dustin Poirier"
02.19.2021 | 6:35 PM ET
Predictions: 4 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 215 Points | Tied for 2997th
"Dont take life too serious, you will never make it out alive."
02.19.2021 | 6:39 PM ET
Sometimes the favourite is a favourite for a reason
Predictions: 5 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 250 Points | Tied for 2664th
"A prolix rhetorician inebriated by the exuberance of his own verbosity"
02.19.2021 | 6:51 PM ET
Predictions: 4 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 215 Points | Tied for 2997th
@Mmcguigan901 I agree. I even finding myself looking for reasons for someone to loose, even stretching what is possible to fit my prediction. For example, i know X fighter should win but i keep looking for reasons that Y fighter to pull off the upset. I think its sometimes from watching to long and trying to challenge myself and not seek the simplest explanation why a fighter would win.
Especially the Russian Fighters.
* Edited at 02.19.2021, 6:51 PM ET *
"Dont take life too serious, you will never make it out alive."
02.19.2021 | 8:03 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 375 Points | Tied for 978th
* Edited at 02.19.2021, 8:04 PM ET *
02.19.2021 | 8:11 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 9 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 505 Points | Tied for 117th
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R5
Lewis cause he has a tattoo
Vieira vs. Kunitskaya
Yana Kunitskaya, DEC
Because she had red lipstick
Oleinik vs. Daukaus
Aleksei Oleinik, SUB, R1
Because he looks like Daddy (edit: lol 6 year olds)
Wineland vs. Castañeda
John Castañeda, SUB, R1
Because he looks like Benjamin (benjimonkey)
02.19.2021 | 8:15 PM ET
Predictions: 4 of 7 Winners, 0 Perfect, 215 Points | Tied for 2997th
02.19.2021 | 8:28 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 365 Points | Tied for 1117th
"I'm not on your side. I'm not on his side. I'm on the side or being right. - Richard Harrison Sr"
02.19.2021 | 9:02 PM ET
Who let Ariel Helwani weigh in?
Predictions: 7 of 12 Winners, 3 Perfect, 450 Points | Tied for 332nd
"Don't follow my bets, it's probably wrong."
02.19.2021 | 9:03 PM ET
Predictions: 7 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 405 Points | Tied for 625th
Haven't you heard? He's gonna be fighting Joe Rogan!
"I wish you good luck but I don't want you to rely on luck"
02.19.2021 | 9:32 PM ET
Predictions: 3 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 250 Points | Tied for 2798th
"you dont need religion to have morals. if you can't tell right from wrong you lack empathy and humanity, not religion."
02.19.2021 | 10:31 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 5 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 280 Points | Tied for 2279th
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R3
Black Beast is gonna win by hammerfist!
02.19.2021 | 11:41 PM ET
This weeks bets at PredictionsUFC.com
Predictions: 2 of 6 Winners, 0 Perfect, 100 Points | Tied for 3443rd
We've always been hesitant when our model spits out a decision bet for a five round fight. Historically though, in two years of data, underdog bets predicting a decision in championship level fights have made good money. Think Jones v Smith (6.25 odds), Usman v Woodley (2.20), Poirier v Holloway (3.00), Hermansson v Souza (5.75), Cerone v Iaquinta (2.62), Jones v Santos (4.1).
Some of our underdog bets this week:
Blaydes v Lewis to go to decision, 3.50 odds
Neither have a recent first round finish. Quite a few decisions between them in their last 8 fights. We predict a far higher chance of a decision than the bookies suggest with odds of 3.50. Definitely worth a bet.
Erosa v Landwehr to go to a decision, 2.15 odds
Only one first round finish for Erosa, none recent for Landwehr. Plenty of decisions between them. Our model predicts an 84% chance of a decision. Worth a bet if you can find odds over 1.38.
Zahabi v Rodrigues to finish, 2.40 odds
We think this line is very undervalued. A steal at 2.60 odds. Well worth an investment here.
Last week
A modest 4 unit gain.
"Bet like an economist"
02.20.2021 | 12:52 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 1 of 4 Winners, 0 Perfect, 65 Points | Tied for 3525th
Curtis Blaydes, TKO, R3
Blaydes grinds it out until he starts to land elbows and gets a stoppage in the back half of the 3rd round
Minner vs. Rosa
Charles Rosa, SUB, R2
Rosa is the better fighter a decision win is most likely but I will give him a decent chance to get a sub. Either way I think he is the pick
Erosa vs. Landwehr
Nate Landwehr, TKO, R3
Landwehr pressure leads to a late TKO. Erosa will get his chin cracked in this fight.
Spivak vs. Vanderaa
Sergey Spivak, SUB, R2
HWT's in a small cage anything can happen but I see this one going to Sergey by sub.
"Aiming to be professional sports handicapper"
02.20.2021 | 1:00 AM ET
Predictions: 4 of 12 Winners, 0 Perfect, 200 Points | Tied for 3119th
"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"
02.20.2021 | 6:22 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 5 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 325 Points | Tied for 1703rd
Curtis Blaydes, SUB, R3
I see Blaydes on his grind. Lewis better make use with his stand-up wisely.
Vieira vs. Kunitskaya
Yana Kunitskaya, DEC
I feel like Yana is a bit undervalued. But then again, how she fights could be why.
Minner vs. Rosa
Charles Rosa, SUB, R2
I see Minner going hard like chicken dinner, fail, gas out and tap to Rosa. Like he's done in the rest of his fights.
Oleinik vs. Daukaus
Chris Daukaus, TKO, R1
Oooooh, Oleinik better be careful. Then again, there were spots before that make quick work of him. Oh well.
Imavov vs. Hawes
Nassourdine Imavov, DEC
I was going back and forth a bit, but Imavov appears to have a slight shot. But man, Hawes is dangerous round 1.
Arlovski vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R1
Eh, I think this one could hurt Andrei a bit.
Gordon vs. Chavez
Danny Chavez, TKO, R2
Chavez is looking great here. But Gordon is a dog also. Hard one to call. The botched cut could go in Chavez's favor.
Klose vs. Pena
Drakkar Klose, DEC
Pena has appeared to slowly show his true potiencial, and it worries me. If Klose still has the fire in him, he gets this done easily.
Wineland vs. Castañeda
Eddie Wineland, DEC
Lovin Eddie here. Sometimes, them older vets just have a shot.
Erosa vs. Landwehr
Nate Landwehr, TKO, R3
What a wild ride. But Erosa's durability could be key here.
Dobson vs. O'Neill
Casey O'Neill, DEC
Cloooooose fight. But I don't think Dobson is making a new run here. Time for a new star, I guess.
Skelly vs. Emmers
Chas Skelly, DEC
Hmm.... A scrapper, or wrestler turned MMA artist? I'll go with the guy who doesn't have fight IQ problems.
"Everybody wants to be a bodybuilder, but nobody wants to lift no heavy-ass weights. - Ronnie Coleman"