UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

The new breed of heavyweights are winning recently:  Aspinall, Daukaus... I feel this trend will continue on this card and Gane will get the finish which might even come by submission.  

Rozenstruik is still very much the new breed

It's weird to put so much thought into a card and then just hop to the next one. Oh well, let's keep this train rollin'! 

De La Rosa’s obvious strength is her grappling, and she’s actually pretty tough to put away. She was last finished in 2017, and since then she’s gone the distance with tough opponents in Viviane Araujo and Andrea Lee. That probably won’t deter Bueno Silva from looking for her own submissions, though, since 5 of her 7 wins are by sub, one of whom was Gillian Robertson. Between the two, Bueno Silva has the sharper striking. De La Rosa frequently telegraphs her strikes, which are already looping and slow, and she isn’t very accurate. Bueno Silva, on the other hand, throws straight punches (and with more volume) and threatens with a good variety of kicks. She also likes to eat up her opponents’ lead leg, which Araujo showed works pretty well against De La Rosa. One of De La Rosa’s best weapons is the body lock, which she uses to secure the takedown and work to a dominant position. Bueno Silva has been taken down like this before, but she has pretty remarkable guard retention. The problem with Bueno Silva is that she gets too comfortable with opponents in her guard. This allows them to run out the clock throwing punches and elbows, not only doing damage but also taking away rounds on the scorecards. Ground ‘n’ pound isn’t really De La Rosa’s thing, though. I see Bueno Silva getting the better of the striking until De La Rosa tries to get inside for the body lock. If she gets it, I think Bueno Silva will be able to scramble to her feet or get De La Rosa inside her guard. From there she can threaten subs from the bottom or work to her feet where she can continue dominating the stand up. De La Rosa’s toughness will make her difficult to finish, so I see this going to Bueno Silva by dec. 

Munhoz vs. Rivera II
Jimmie Rivera, DEC
The first time these guys met it was a close fight technically, but Rivera should have won a UD 3-0 or at the worst 2-1. He landed 33% more sig strikes than Munhoz and stuffed all 7 takedowns effortlessly. Rivera can be a bit predictable in the striking despite having solid speed and footwork, and it cost him the win against Yan in a fight he was arguably winning. He can be a bit predictable with the strikes, but he's just over 30 and I think despite his long UFC tenure he's had less damage than a lot of fighters and can continue to grow. Munhoz while being a bit older should still be in that growth phase as well, but I just am not really seeing it. Munhoz's handspeed is probably his best asset, he managed to beat Cody Garbrandt to the punch several times despite losing that fight up until that flush hook. He diversifies his strikes pretty well, particularly in the Edgar fight, achieving the coveted 60/20/20 body, head and legs split. I think Rivera is the more well rounded fighter here and he edges another close fight by winning the striking at the beginning of each round off of activity and footwork and then falling back onto the wrestling in the second and third once Munhoz starts to pick up on the timing. The danger with Munhoz is that he's active but he rarely sits down on that power until about halfway into a round. Once he does though he lands knockdowns and TKOs left and right seemingly. I think Rivera still has his chin under him, and I doubt Munhoz lands harder than Yan. Munhoz could win by really hurting Rivera but I don't think he finds the chin with someone who moves as well as Rivera.

Caceres vs. Croom
Kevin Croom, SUB, R2
This is an easy fight to bet. Kevin Croom by submission is a huge value line, he opened up at +250 and the sharks quickly realized how dumb that line was. Sitting at +170 I still think he has value because the way to stunt Croom is with 1.) Strong wrestling defense and 2.) Power, even moderate power. But Caceres has neither of those at all, he's got good footwork, cardio, and a **** ton of experience. Unfortunately, because I like Caceres, this is a bad match up because you're dealing with a hyper agreesive attack grappler. Moderately similar to a watered down Darrick Minner, Croom has one speed and goes for the whole 15. If Caceres can keep this standing he'll still be in trouble because Croom just truly doesn't give a **** and will walk onto shots, but that really doesn't worry me here because Caceres has little to no power finishing only one of his UFC fights by TKO, and that was against a fighter who managed to get knocked down or KO'd in 3 of his 4 UFC fights. Croom isn't a lock by the furthest stretch of the imagination because his style gets him finished as often as it gets him the finish, but no way should this line be wider than a 20 point margin.

Rozenstruik vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, SUB, R2
Jairzinho has a 75+ kickboxing record with 64 KOs. As a native of Suriname he trained with Dutch kickboxers with notable experience. He has absolutely no grappling record to date and doesn’t perform any sweeps or takedowns from his striking, this may be in his game, this may be in development but I doubt he can outwork Cyril Gane in the clinch. He is an undefeated Muay Thai competitor and undefeated in MMA so far. He has 3 submission victories, which is something I will build on in this prediction. France has yet to grow when it comes to grappling. Cyril Ganes a coach Fenand Lopez has built his own system in France. His coach is considered to be the bravest padman in the world. Imagine a fighter that can truly express himself and not hold back in every training session. He even was the former trainer of Francis Ngannou but the relationship fell due to the strict nature of his morales. He feels he was ungrateful and driven by ego. A strong character to guide you day by day will contribute to greatness. Cyril Gane possesses significant reach advantage as well. I see the fight starting slow, as both will each other’s movements. The clinch game will be controlled mainly Cyril Gane. I see so exchanges here since the Dutch style kickboxers need space to play their true game. Pressed in the cage we may see a surprise guillotina or takedown by Cyril Gane, completely throwing off the striking game both fighters are known for. I just see the Muay Thai clinch game leading to some scramble where Cyril Gane will win by submission. If Cyril was not as divers and experience, let by a great fight team, I would have chosen the Suriname native to win via tko. Both strikers will buff it out but the styles will clash and lead to this result in my prediction.

Rozenstruik vs. Gane
Ciryl Gane, SUB, R3
Ciryl Gane is the more well rounded fighter in my opinion. Almost all of Jairzinho Rozenstruik's wins have come by way of knockout but Gane has a won by both knockouts and submissions. I think that Rozenstruik has the edge in terms of striking so Gane would be making a mistake if he keeps it standing but I'm sure that he's smart enough to know this and will try and bring the fight to the ground and find a submission.

Hill vs. Yoder II
Angela Hill, DEC
If Angela Hill gets robbed of another decision, I'll be so pissed! At least Hill has won a decision against Ashley Yoder before so she's got a good blueprint to follow, it's just a question of how much has Yoder improved her game since then? In my opinion, Yoder has improved but not enough.

Hernandez vs. Moisés
Thiago Moisés, DEC
Alexander Hernandez is the slightly better fighter but he can be so inconsistent and I don't feel comfortable picking him so I'll side with the underdog.

The Odds this week is really good, Rozenstuck, Davis and Krylov should not be such big underdogs and Kroom should be favourite. Not saying I'm betting them just yet but there the line i'm looking out for

* Edited at 02.21.2021, 3:11 PM ET *

@Damien I also like Krylov as an underdog. I haven't decided yet who I'm picking to win, but I've underestimated him before and I've regretted it. 

Caceres vs. Croom
Kevin Croom, SUB, R1
Two fighters with experience, but I think (similar to his fight vs. Roberts) Croom will hurt Caceres on feet, and then get the victory via guillotine choke.

Hernandez vs. Moisés
Thiago Moisés, DEC
****y Hernandez on this occasion faces an opponent of a similar level, unlike Gruetzemacher who had not fought for 2 years due to injuries (also a clear missmatch in terms of styles), Moises is a fighter who in his last match beat a Bobby Green characterized by good volume handling and fluid striking. the American Top Team fighter has a great level of BJJ, added to an improved foot fight. For his part, Hernandez has a good wrestling base and a power boxing. I think the Brazilian can keep pace with the fight and win by decision

Davis vs. Mazo
Sabina Mazo, DEC
Davis had his moment, but maybe this is her last fight (at least in the UFC). Sabina Mazo is a rising fighter with a good arsenal of punches, kicks and knees and an ever-improving ground game. I see the Colombian taking a wide decision or finishing again in the 3rd round.

Menifield vs. Knight
William Knight, TKO, R2
Knight surprised me against Camur (Stipe Miocic's teammate) has weapons both in the stan-up fighting and to always be top in the scrambles. Instead Minefield empties after the first round and was knocked out by OSP's counter punch. Visualizing potential scenarios I see Knight fighting smart in the first round and then finishing with standing punches or via Ground and Pound.

Jacoby vs. Grishin
Maxim Grishin, TKO, R2
Jacoby is a good kickboxer who handles the use of combinations, but Grishin only lost on his debut because it was a Short Notice and because Tybura is a decent HW with good clinch and takedowns. Being probably a only stand-up match, I see Grinshin taking the decision or a finish in the later rounds.

Jacoby vs. Grishin
Dustin Jacoby, TKO, R3
WINJacoby has strong stand up, kickboxing skill with power in the right hand. Loves to throw jumping knees up the middle. Dustin is aggressive and not afraid to push forward through punches. Fast starter. Solid 1 2 setup. Strong right had finisher. LOSS to David Branch. Not good takedown defense when pushed with multiple takedowns. Can get up. Seems to be a bit hesitant to throw when pushed. Can get hit. Not a lot of setups, lots of 1 2 with David controlling the ground. Still looks good. Seems scared to throw the kick with a threat of takedown. Maxim is unimpressive and has lost a lot of fights that he should have won on paper.

I think Krylov is gonna get smoked. His boxing is aggressive and sloppy and Ankalaev has the advantages on the mat for sure.

Damn missed a good opportunity for a joke. Magomed is Russian and Kyrlov is from Ukraine. Its a total mismatch. Ruasia number #1 

Honestly, the poor Ukrainian could have climbed the ranks, but it’s just impossible to get past the Russian. One could say Krylov’s path up the rankings is being Bloc’d by Russia.

Ankalaev is overrated and is not that good, at all.
Krylov will raise the Ukrainian flag proudly after he smothers him

I mean in all honesty, I have figured out who I’d pick in that fight yet. But I wouldn’t say Ankalaev is “overrated” I’m not even sure if he’s ranked despite being on quite the tear.

I’d still like to see Gane get KO’d!  No clue if it will be happening this fight but u never know.
2021 UFC fights for the most part have be hmm unusual.


Why is this “he man” both white & brown?

* Edited at 02.21.2021, 9:04 PM ET *

Lawrence vs. Cachero
Ronnie Lawrence, TKO, R3
Cachero has a lot of lower end fluf fights it would seem. Easily caught. Ronnie is constantly moving, has power. SURE THING on the win!

Barcelos vs. Rojo
Raoni Barcelos, SUB, R1
Raoni seems like a scrapper that is willing to take his time to learn his opponent. Barcelos looked like a man on fire in the return from his only loss against Jamal Parks in RFA. Lots of trick up his sleeve and a strong ground game. Rojo can be caught by Raoni. I believe this. Rojo has quick, mostly accurate strikes. Rojo can crack. He ran around the cage like a Trex after his fight in Combat Guadalajara. odd.

Menifield vs. Knight
William Knight, DEC
Once

Rozenstruik vs. Gane
Jairzinho Rozenstruik, TKO, R2
Bam 💥! Let’s end this 7-0 BS!