Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

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Tapology
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10.16.2020 | 10:28 AM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 02.06.2021 at 05:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN+
  • Name: UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
  • Also Known As: UFC Vegas 18
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC APEX
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Brendan Fitzgerald, Daniel Cormier, Dominick Cruz
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Daniel Cormier
  • MMA Bouts: 12
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Alexander Volkov   defeats   Alistair Overeem   via KO/TKO, Cross-hook Combo   2:06 Round 2 of 5, 7:06 Total Bout Page
Cory Sandhagen   defeats   Frankie Edgar   via KO/TKO, Flying Knee   0:28 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Clay Guida   defeats   Michael Johnson   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Alexandre Pantoja   defeats   Manel Kape   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Beneil Dariush   defeats   Diego Ferreira   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Danilo Marques   defeats   Mike Rodriguez   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   4:52 Round 2 of 3, 9:52 Total Bout Page
Devonte Smith   defeats   Justin Jaynes   via KO/TKO, Doctor Stoppage (eye Injury)   3:38 Round 2 of 3, 8:38 Total Bout Page
Karol Rosa   defeats   Joselyne Edwards   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Lara Fritzen   defeats   Molly McCann   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Seung Woo Choi   defeats   Youssef Zalal   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Timur Valiev   defeats   Martin Day   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Ode Osbourne   defeats   Jerome Rivera   via KO/TKO, Left Cross   0:26 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page

Responses Page 51

Spudgreg
Spudgreg
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02.07.2021 | 8:28 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 380 Points   |   Tied for 2048th

Hope overeem doesn’t retire
flying_frontkick
flying_frontkick
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02.07.2021 | 8:45 AM ET

Predictions: 5 of 12 Winners, 4 Perfect, 375 Points   |   Tied for 2160th

The **** did Sandhagen come with this ninja **** all of the sudden?

"For no particular reason beat up everyone"

Tieoken
Tieoken
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02.07.2021 | 10:19 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 1941st

@Flying. Aljo was his first real loss. His other losses (1 as a pro and 1 as an amateur) were decisions that maybe he could have won. Aljo finished him like a baby and I think that lit a ******* fire under him and he adopted a new mentality of, "Can't wrestle if you're sleeping on the canvas."

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

JayHyde3858
JayHyde3858
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02.07.2021 | 11:16 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 470 Points   |   Tied for 1004th

After Benny put in the performance to beat Diego Ferreira yesterday evening to be up 2 - 0 in bouts, he goes into the Top 10 of the UFC Lightweight Division (155Lbs) Rankings? Question is, who should he face next?? Options Tony Ferguson, Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje? Any others for a next fight... Benny is a brilliant MMA Lightweight Contender, but what do you think is next move should be and furthermore how will he fair when up against such tough competition towards the very top of the Division?? 🤔🧐🥊👊👊🥊🤑👍

* Edited at 02.07.2021, 11:18 AM ET *

"If you find yourself in a fairly even fight... You didn't plan your mission properly!! 🥊👊👍"

TARTARA
TARTARA
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02.07.2021 | 11:37 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 380 Points   |   Tied for 2048th

jayhyde3858🤔Mmm, Oooooh i prefer 🦊 Oliv! 

* Edited at 02.07.2021, 11:43 AM ET *

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

SlipperyWhenDry
SlipperyWhenDry
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02.07.2021 | 11:46 AM ET

Predictions: 10 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 680 Points   |   Tied for 37th with 7 others

@JayHyde I like the way the Ferguson matchup sounds, or how about Chandler!

"When the stakes are high you can't be afraid to go all in"

TARTARA
TARTARA
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02.07.2021 | 12:16 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 380 Points   |   Tied for 2048th

slippery when dry I think with Olivera! 
Chandler with Gaethje and then bitten through his teeth for a title fight ! 

* Edited at 02.07.2021, 12:19 PM ET *

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

SlipperyWhenDry
SlipperyWhenDry
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02.07.2021 | 12:20 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 680 Points   |   Tied for 37th with 7 others

@Tartar I love the way it sounds as far as stylistically but Olivera should be in line for the title now vs Poirier imo

"When the stakes are high you can't be afraid to go all in"

TARTARA
TARTARA
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  • Post Score: 65

02.07.2021 | 12:36 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 380 Points   |   Tied for 2048th

slippery when dry Aaa, ok! 


Benny - Ferguson
Olivera - Poirier - title fight 
Chandler - Geaghje


Chandler - Poirier - title fight

Shelby where you @!

* Edited at 02.07.2021, 12:45 PM ET *

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

Stephen Terry
Stephen Terry
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02.07.2021 | 1:22 PM ET

Another 50/50 card for me but it was very entertaining!

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 2398th




"I wish you good luck but I don't want you to rely on luck"

JayHyde3858
JayHyde3858
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02.07.2021 | 2:01 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 470 Points   |   Tied for 1004th

TARTARA and SlipperyWhenDry, great responses regarding the UFC Lightweight Division and may I say some phenomenal entertaining match ups if made... Personally I see


Tony Ferguson Vs Benny Dariush to see what Tony has left at World Level in the Division

Justin Gaethje Vs Dustin Poirier II for the UFC Lightweight Title, if Khabib stays retired and depending on whether or Not McGregor Vs Poirier III can be made between September and November

Michael Chandler Vs Connor McGregor would be a great fight with relevance for McGregor to come back into the mix... Plus on PPV, given his last performance, Michael Chandler would definitely take it to test himself and make some good money... 💰💰💰

Charles Oliveira Vs Dan Hooker... I still think that Charles Oliveira needs to get a further Win or 2 against Top 10 competition before he his granted a Title shot

Some fantastic fights to look forward to whatever happens though... 🤔👏🥊👊👍🤑

"If you find yourself in a fairly even fight... You didn't plan your mission properly!! 🥊👊👍"

TARTARA
TARTARA
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  • Member Since: 2021.02.01
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02.07.2021 | 2:30 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 380 Points   |   Tied for 2048th

jayhyde3858

We thank you for the nice pass you gave us! 

"Even though you are sitting, it seems that your thoughts are standing upright"!
 
I think whatever match the UFC makes will be hell of a season!

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

Killbot2000
Killbot2000
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02.08.2021 | 12:52 AM ET

This weeks bets at PredictionsUFC.com

Predictions: 3 of 6 Winners, 0 Perfect, 150 Points   |   Tied for 3388th

For those interesting in betting, come and have a look at our results at
PredictionsUFC.com

Profit this event: 22.94 units
2021 profit: 49 units
2020 profit: 125 units

Combining edge and discipline to beat the bookie.
Bet like an economist at PredictionsUFC.com
(Results independently verified at www.betmma.tips/Killbot2000)

"Bet like an economist"

DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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02.08.2021 | 1:00 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 12 Winners, 6 Perfect, 680 Points   |   Tied for 45th with 1 other

@Killbot2000 How you make profit when you 0-2 in your free bets ???????

* Edited at 02.08.2021, 3:37 AM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

Killbot2000
Killbot2000
  • Location: Sydney
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02.08.2021 | 3:58 AM ET

Betting 101

Predictions: 3 of 6 Winners, 0 Perfect, 150 Points   |   Tied for 3388th


All of our individual bets this week are at www.betmma.tips/Killbot2000Tapology measures % accuracy in tips, which is largely irrelevant when trying to make money.
Betting success is linked to margin - the value you can find over the bookie.
For example, I might have a 90% accuracy with my tips, but will still lose money if the odds I wagered with the bookie were on average less than 90% in probability (equivalent to 1.11 odds, -909 moneyline).

For our bets this week, we hit two decent underdog bets and four favourites (all propositions for the fight going to a decision or finish). For each of those bets we calculated a more probable outcome than the bookie was paying.

For Pantoja/Kape, we calculated the probability of a decision at 59%. But the bookies were paying 2.60, which equates to a predicted 38% probability for a decision. In sum, the bookies were paying too much for the bet. We took it and won 12.8 units profit on that outcome.

The short answer to your question: Maths and edge over the bookie.

"Bet like an economist"

Axl702
Axl702
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02.08.2021 | 10:04 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

^ this sounds like a minion of Diary of a Pro Gambler.
i'll give you credit for the pantoja over, it was an underdog, but you can't give out bum picks to the public and expect to get credibility.I wanna know what table/equation you use to calculate percentages and probabilities in MMA.


A wealthy gambler I know gave out Timur Valiev at -400 as his most confident play.
He also gave out mike rodriguez and volkov as a 2 legger.
Meanwhile I gave out to my friends Beneil, Pantoja and Volkov as my most confident plays.
I had seung woo choi, joselyne, the over on devonte and under on volkov as confident underdogs. 

* Edited at 02.08.2021, 11:25 PM ET *

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Axl702
Axl702
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  • Predictions:  2,890  |  57.4%
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02.08.2021 | 11:26 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 2 Perfect, 480 Points   |   Tied for 869th

I think gambling on mma is all about having money and having balls.
You also have to make the most logical and best bets you can. 

"R.I.P. Beneil"

Killbot2000
Killbot2000
  • Location: Sydney
  • Member Since: 2019.05.08
  • Predictions:  239  |  79.5%
  • Forum Posts:  38
  • Post Score: 158

02.09.2021 | 12:33 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 6 Winners, 0 Perfect, 150 Points   |   Tied for 3388th

thanks Axl, but I'll withdraw
Betting talk here doesn't seem that popular
You're right though, diary of a pro gambler seems spot on with his method

"Bet like an economist"

HiDefff
HiDefff

02.09.2021 | 8:23 AM ET

Predictions: 7 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 500 Points   |   Tied for 720th

This is definitely a place for betting talk. You just have to be interactive in the chats. break down the fights and tell us why someone will win in your opinion instead of doing math equations. Just popping in on a Friday or Saturday plugging your bets and boasting about them on Sunday or Monday will get you no interaction here. Theres a million of those guys here and they get ran off fast. If you interact with the people on the forums and drop breakdowns or opinions it'll get you a lot further here. Challenge people in fantasy games or join the public ones. you start beating some of us than we might start listening. Just some things I've noticed from past touts failures to promote on Tapology 
Stephen Terry
Stephen Terry
  • Location: South London, United Kingdom
  • Member Since: 2020.06.04
  • Predictions:  40,880  |  69.3%
  • Forum Posts:  7,250
  • Post Score: 283

02.09.2021 | 9:05 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 12 Winners, 1 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 2398th

@Killbot2000

@HiDefff is spot on with his reply, if you look through the earlier pages of any UFC thread, there is a lot of talk about betting and users discussing bets. Hell, there's even the Tapology Wagering League game which is very popular amongst the regular users, so to say that betting on this site isn't popular is just incorrect. as @HiDefff said, just give us some logical arguments as to why your free bets will come in instead of just maths formulas and then you'll gain some credibility. Unlike a lot of the other bet pluggers that have tried and failed before, you seem like a very pleasant guy to debate with so there's no reason at all why we wouldn't eventually warm to you, it's just that we want logical arguments, not numbers. Personally, I don't believe that something as unpredictable as an MMA fight where one punch, kick or bad body position could change everything, can be effectively predicted using numbers alone. Good luck with your bets in the future!

"I wish you good luck but I don't want you to rely on luck"

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