UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Macy chiasson is typically enjoyable to watch, thats a shame

Overeem vs Volkov is the only fight I'm flip flopping on this card, I don't know if Volkov is the Knockout guy that I can pick to KO Overeem. Alistair is the best heavyweight skill wise so if doesn't get finish, Alistair should win this.

Volkov look dangerous in the Harris fight, almost finishing him in the 1st, And got the  killshot in the 2nd. But in every fight before that, he doesn't look dangerous for a heavyweight. He should of finish Hardy, Lewis and maybe a gas Blaydes for me to confedently pick him agaist Overeem

* Edited at 02.04.2021, 2:08 AM ET *

The Edgar-Sandhagen line seems way off to me.

Overeem vs. Volkov
Alexander Volkov, TKO, R3
Volk

Stamann vs. Askar
Cody Stamann, DEC
Cody

Valiev vs. Day
Timur Valiev, TKO, R2
Valiev

Overeem all the way against volkov. Too strong too crafty

Overeem as the dog at (+160)
Stamann no matter how big a favorite lol (-tbh)


probably will end up live betting way more
https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-fight-night-overeem-vs-volkov-predictions

Johnson vs. Guida
Michael Johnson, DEC
I'm

In his last fight against Munhoz, Edgar showed that he still has a lot of fight in him. Actually, his striking volume in that fight was more than what we typically see from him. However, his win was controversial since just as many people thought Munhoz won as did Edgar. He’s also 2-3 over his last 5 fights, two of which ended with him getting TKO’d. What’s worse, he only has two KO losses on his record and they both came within the last three years. For me, Sandhagen has all the tools that have given Frankie problems over his last 5 fights. He has good footwork, he throws strikes from sneaky angles, he has great forward pressure, and has done relatively well in grappling scrambles. He’s also more accurate with strikes and has pretty good striking defense, and his cardio seems every bit as good as Edgar’s. Everything that makes Frankie dangerous, Sandhagen has either taken it or shut it down before. He ate Lineker’s strongest shots and shut down Raphael Assuncao’s super well-rounded game with pressure, angles, and good grappling defense. Assuncao’s stats are fairly similar to Frankie’s save for Edgar’s more frequent takedown attempts, but Sandhagen has generally been able to stuff those and scramble his way back to his feet. Sandhagen’s only real weakness so far has been to succumb to another fighter’s pressure, like he did against Aljo. He didn’t seem at all prepared for that. Frankie can try to push that kind of pace early, but he’s not really a submission threat to Sandhagen (hasn’t had a sub win since 2014). I don’t even think he’s attempted a sub since he last fought Jeremy Stephens in 2016. If Frankie does push that kind of pace, I think Sandhagen has the footwork and awkwardness to stay on the outside and KO Frankie or pepper him to a W. It’s hard for me to see a scenario where Frankie gets the win. Then again, he’s Frankie Edgar, and he’s proved his naysayers wrong before. I have Sandhagen, flying knee TKO in the 2nd.

Overeem vs. Volkov
Alistair Overeem, TKO, R4
OVEREEM COMING FOR THAT BELT

Sandhagen vs. Edgar
Frankie Edgar, DEC
Sandhagen is the heavy favourite for a reason. but i just have a feeling Edgar is going to pull something out the bag

Pantoja vs. Kape
Manel Kape, TKO, R1
they've thrown Kape into the deep end but i see him beating Pantoja

Stamann vs. Askar
Askar Askar, DEC
Stamann is really good but i just have a feeling that Askar is going to win

Ferreira vs. Dariush II
Beneil Dariush, TKO, R2
WAR Dariush

Johnson vs. Guida
Michael Johnson, DEC
Johnson is the most unreliable fighter of all time but he should win this

McCann vs. Procópio
Molly McCann, DEC
Meatball

Zalal vs. Choi
Youssef Zalal, DEC
Closer than the betting lines say

Osbourne vs. Bondar
Denys Bondar, SUB, R1
I like Osbourne but Bondar seems to be the real deal

Man, this one is tough to call. Both guys are experienced and patient and have the skills to put the other one out. Overeem’s volume and pace increase as the fight goes and as he gets comfortable. He’s accurate, has good takedowns, a good clinch, and has next-level ground ‘n’ pound. Volkov has speed (for a heavyweight), good counters, and a stiff jab. Both have good kicks to the body as well. Looking at Volkov’s record since 2016, Overeem seems like a truly unique challenge, and it’s telling to me that Volkov couldn’t put away an inexperienced Greg Hardy. Meanwhile, Overeem has recently looked good, but you never know when he’s going to make a mistake and leave himself exposed to the KO. On that point, Overeem took some pretty crushing blows to the skull from Sakai and Harris and still managed to get the W. And when he gets rocked, it’s from solid punches to the chin. Not the top or side of the head; the chin. I think he knows this because any time his opponents move forward he doesn’t throw counters as that would expose his chin. Instead he covers up and waits for them to gas or reset, or he slips out of the way before his back gets to the cage. I think in this fight he’ll be patient enough to avoid Volkov’s counters, and I think he’ll slip Volkov’s shots if he moves forward. If he doesn’t slip before getting to the cage, he runs the risk of eating Volkov’s knees to the gut. This is where Overeem’s clinch comes in handy; not to throw his own strikes, but to stop Volkov from pouring on the offense. From here, Overeem can get off the cage and reset or he can attempt the takedown (like he did against Pavlovich). If he can get Volkov down (and there’s no reason to think he can’t), he’ll be able to unleash that otherworldly GnP. I think Volkov has the advantage of speed and throwing straighter punches, but Overeem has solved that riddle before. The fight will start with both of them being patient and calculating. Into the second round, the volume will increase from both fighters, and maybe Volkov starts to come forward. Overeem uses those hooks to keep him away and eventually wraps up to switch positions, putting Volkov against the fence. I think Overeem will look for takedowns quicker in this fight than he did with Sakai to nullify what is a more technical threat in Volkov. Overeem will get him down and then smash until Volkov gets up or the ref steps in. Repeat for rounds 3, 4, and 5, only with more Overeem aggression. I think it’ll be a bloody one, and I’m pretty stoked to see it. Overeem, TKO in the 3rd or 4th.

Zalal vs. Choi
Seung Woo Choi, DEC
Choi is fighting monsters. Dog or pass Zalal is overpriced

McCann vs. Procópio
Lara Procópio, DEC
Molly took money from me

Valiev vs. Day
Timur Valiev, TKO, R1
Under bet

Rodriguez vs. Marques
Mike Rodriguez, TKO, R1
Pass. Slow is overpriced maybe the under is good bet

Pantoja vs. Kape
Manel Kape, DEC
A powerful and athletic striker, Manel Kape has been racking up knockout victories in RIZIN against opponents of varying skill. Kape moves well, throws fast and accurate punches and fights well out of both stances. When he switches to southpaw, look out for the head kick – which is one of his most dangerous weapons. I can understand why the UFC have signed him and I’m sure he will put on some exciting fights in years to come, but he has some major deficiencies in the grappling department. He has a fast sprawl, but can be taken down pretty easily when chaining attempts or with a well-timed entry. While he possesses a brown belt in BJJ, his positional awareness on the mat looks questionable. In a 2018 fight, Ulka Sasaki had him in numerous bad spots throughout the contest. He’s a relatively young fighter at 27-years-of-age, so he could be making improvements – but we have to rely on the footage available as gamblers. Alexandre Pantoja’s striking style is not as aesthetically pleasing, but he’s capable of dishing out damage. The Brazilian stands flat-footed and is hittable, but is dangerous with his boxing blitzes, body kicks and leg kicks. I feel that leg kicks could be particularly effective against Kape. With a black belt in BJJ in his back pocket, he’s free to open up with his striking and won’t care if the fight hits the ground in any position. Pantoja is a phenomenal transitional grappler and aggressive guard player. Dragging Kape into his spider’s web seems like the obvious strategy for him, so I hope he doesn’t take the path of most resistance and get involved in an idiotic brawl. I have questions about Alexandre Pantoja’s fight IQ, but this seems like a great match-up for him on paper.

Sandhagen vs. Edgar
Cory Sandhagen, DEC
Cory Sandhagen is perhaps the most nuanced striker in the bantamweight division. He gives opponents plenty of looks and keeps them perplexed with his shifting, flurries and unpredictable movement. While “The Sandman” can be taken down, he’s a great scrambler and is adept at getting back to his feet. He does sometimes give up his back however, as we saw in his fight against Aljamain Sterling. At 5’11, Sandhagen is the biggest bantamweight on the roster, which is ironic given that Frankie Edgar (standing 5’6) only recently moved down from featherweight. Edgar is known for his perpetual movement, blitzing attacks and unpredictable level changes. While still competitive at 38-years-of-age, he’s a lot slower and hittable these days. Against Chan “Korean Zombie” Sung Jung, Edgar came crashing forward with his head on the centerline and was brutally punished for it. The game plan for Edgar will be to keep it reasonably competitive on the feet and mix in takedowns in order to rack up control time, but it feels like a tall order.

Overeem vs. Volkov
Alexander Volkov, DEC
A stalking kickboxer, Alexander Volkov is known for his clean combinations, stinging counters and front kicks to the body. I liked the way he applied pressure against Walt Harris and picked his shots wisely when he had his foe pinned against the fence. A well-timed knee could be useful for him in this fight, as I expect Alistair Overeem to put on his wrestling shoes. Overeem is more of a sniper these days and primarily throws single strikes. I suspect he will opt to fight southpaw and try to catch Volkov with a huge left hand or body kick. The Dutch fighter can be backed up against the fence and will use the crazy monkey defense at times, which I’m not a fan of. This is not a position you want to be in against a hard-hitting opponent like Volkov. As the Russian enters punching range, look for Overeem to try and secure the clinch – where he’ll go for his favored trip takedowns. Volkov lacks takedown defense, but is good at limiting his opponent’s offense from the closed guard position. That said, Volkov put on a noticeable amount of muscle mass after his fight with Curtis Blaydes and I wouldn’t be surprised if defensive wrestling has been a focal point in the gym. Every round starts on the feet and there is a big discrepancy in terms of durability. If Overeem gets knocked unconscious yet again, I can’t see a route back to a title shot for him at nearly 41-years-of-age. Overeem could have a path to victory with takedowns and positional control, but I wouldn’t say it’s a probable outcome.

https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/59139

Man! I'm bummed about the Spike Carlyle cut. So what if he lost to Algeo and Quarantillo, both of them are good. He gave us an awesome illegal elbow finish that he got away with and one of the funniest UFC moments of all time when he turned his back on Billy Q with 10 seconds left and got thrashed. Man!