UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Overeem vs. Volkov
Alistair Overeem, TKO, R3
Originally I had Volkov by decision, and I think that is still entirely likely because he is more active on the feet and doesn't get finished hardly ever. That being said, lately Overeem has been getting great at taking people down and bashing them up, and you can't win a fight with a bunch of broken ribs.

Sandhagen vs. Edgar
Cory Sandhagen, TKO, R2
Sandhagen's porous takedown defense is worrisome but I feel like he is a constant danger and will find something to end the fight. Stronger bet if Herb Dean is the ref.

Pantoja vs. Kape
Manel Kape, TKO, R1
What an acquisition! I was so excited when I read Kape had been signed and this is one hell of a test on arrival. I think he passes with flying colors

Ferreira vs. Dariush II
Diego Ferreira, DEC
Good chance I'll change this pick before the fight. If you have a strong feeling about who will win this, you are an idiot or a savant. I'm only picking Diego for now because I feel he has faced a slightly stronger slate of opponents in his last 5 fights.

Johnson vs. Guida
Clay Guida, SUB, R3
Guida moved to elevation, live dog

Rodriguez vs. Marques
Danilo Marques, SUB, R2
prepare to be disappointed

Jaynes vs. Smith
Devonte Smith, TKO, R1
This is a bad fight to take on short notice.

McCann vs. Procópio
Lara Procópio, SUB, R2
I don't know what to think about McCann after she lost to Santos. She should have crushed her into the fence and she didn't fight like she normally did before.

Zalal vs. Choi
Youssef Zalal, DEC
there are levels to the game.

Osbourne vs. Bondar
Denys Bondar, SUB, R1
"There are three mothers you never mess with: Mother Nature, Mother-in-Law, and ************* Ukrainians."

If Dariush gets knocked out, it will be the saddest fight i've ever seen

This is one of those fights where it’ll come down to the details. In their first fight, Ferreira was tentative initially and Dariush was the stronger fighter. Dariush also used his length better and was able to control Ferreira along the cage and on the ground. That’s significant since Ferreira was already an accomplished grappler at that point. Diego also looked sluggish after 1.5 rounds, which the announcers attributed to taking the fight on short notice (Dariush was initially supposed to fight Alan Patrick). I think Ferreira now is leaps and bounds better than the Ferreira then. He’s improved his cardio and strike variety and is much harder to back up than he was 7 years ago. He’s also shown tremendous adaptability in adjusting his game plan to his opponents; e.g. finding ways around the power of Taisumov and nullifying the technical striking of Pettis. His downsides are that he still gets hit, and though his volume increases as the fight goes, he also gets a bit flat-footed. He isn’t the most technical striker to begin with either. Dariush is always dangerous. He’s very strong for a lightweight, does good work in the clinch and Thai plum, has strong kicks, and can grapple with the best of them. Lately, though, he’s been getting tired through a round or two, which makes him more likely to brawl and telegraph his strikes. Fortunately he’s come out on top the last two times this happened, but it’s not a sustainable formula to keep piling up wins.

For this fight, I see Diego being much harder to push to the cage. I think they engage in the middle for a while until Dariush pulls ahead with strong kicks and clinch work as Ferreira moves forward. Ferreira will at some point get Dariush against the fence, but Dariush, being the stronger man, will find a way to reverse the position and cancel out any significant offense. That’s just what I see for the first round. By the second round, it’s totally possible that cardio starts to take over and we see what a machine Ferreira is. Diego’s volume will increase like it usually does, and when it does, Dariush will either go into brawler mode or try to get it to the ground where he’s been successful against Ferreira before. If Ferreira gets back to his feet to keep up the pressure, he may be able to pick a fading Dariush apart. If he decides to play guard (which is likely considering it’s a pretty good guard) Dariush may be able to negate any momentum that Ferreira gains on the feet. It’s a very tough pick, but I think Dariush takes the first round, maybe loses the second, and finds a way to brawl or control his way to taking the third round. I have Dariush by dec. I wanted so bad to pick Ferreira, but this is just what’s in my heart.

On a card where they're not that many great dog odds that worth the risk, I don't mind the odds on Justin Jaynes, Devonte Smith only look good when he fight people who ain't good, I slightly lean Smith but I haven't look at the odds but Jaynes should atlest be +250. Honesly think Jaynes could sleep him because Jaynes has power and I think Devote is chinny 

Btw Im probley gonna avoid that card betting

* Edited at 02.02.2021, 5:24 PM ET *

Quack Quack who else likes Overeem at +145 and Edwards at +185

This is another one where I feel both fighters have a good chance. Pantoja is good at counter fighting and getting inside of looping punches. He also has a good chin, which helps him in those brawl scenarios that he often engages. He also has great grappling, especially in the guard, and he’s good at finding his way to his opponent’s back. That said, he doesn’t really pressure a lot and relies on short bursts of offense rather than setting up his combinations. He often waits for his opponents to throw the first strike, which is dangerous if they are faster and throw straight punches as opposed to looping ones. Enter Manel Kape. Kape has a similar wide stance to Figueiredo, which gave Pantoja issues. He also has good foot and head movement and sets up combinations with pressure and creative entries. For a fighter like Pantoja, Kape’s movement and speed will be a problem. However, in Rizin, Kape would start by circling the outside and slowly close in on his opponents, picking them apart with stiff jabs and combinations. In the UFC, circling the outside with Pantoja, who is very aggressive with submissions, might get him stuck along the cage and eventually fighting to avoid the sub. This is exhausting to a fighter who isn’t used to it. If Pantoja figures out that he can’t out-counter Kape, he’ll look to take it to the ground off the fence where he has the clear advantage. Some fighters are good enough to avoid or escape Pantoja’s ground game, but I’m not sure that Kape is one of them. Kape’s been subbed twice before, and I think if Pantoja can get to Kape’s back, he’s going to sleep. Pantoja by second round sub (RNC). 

Is this Reems last fight?  Somethings telling me to pick Reem here, I just cannot decide. 

@Hippie

Depends. If he wins then I seriously doubt it will be his last due to the temptation of going for the title but if he loses...well, then maybe. 

If Alistair and Frankie win I'm gonna be so happy I'm gonna get absolutely ********d.

Alternatively, if both Frankie and Alistair lose and retire, I'm gonna cry and get absolutely ********d.

This is his last title run ! He is a true trooper 👍!WOLVERINE!

* Edited at 02.02.2021, 7:59 PM ET *

Haha well 3 absolutely different answers, Thx guys!

I am once again entirely suspicious of how many positive COVID results they get in Vegas vs Fight Island. Having thousands of people flying in from all over the world isn't safer. No way it can be. But just like Khabib got a friendly weigh in, I think Dana is giving out friendly tests over there.

Osbourne vs. Rivera
Ode Osbourne, DEC
Jerome rivera would not be in the UFC if he was on a different season of DWCS

I think Ode Osbourne finishes Jerome Rivera... probably by submission.  Jerome hasn't had any luck in the UFC so far, he has put himself in bad situations in his past two fights.

* Edited at 02.03.2021, 1:36 AM ET *

Jerome Rivera isn't horrible, in the regional scenes he fought higher level opponents than Ode Osbourne. However his gas tank was not very great, especially coming in as short notice here isn't a good sign.

On the positives, he does have a nice long jab with his southpaw stance and his Ju Jitsu is at a pretty good level/

Ode Osbourne has very good strikes and can perform in both stances at around the same level and is a very "reactionary" fighter, he'll adjust his game plan quite well to what the opponent is doing. He's also a pretty hard hitter. However, it's kinda hard to put him in comparison with a lot of people in the roster, his level of competition in the past was very low.

I wouldn't bet money on this one, but Rivera's likely going to be a huge underdog, and he wouldn't be the worst underdog pick on this event.

* Edited at 02.03.2021, 3:50 AM ET *

Osbourne vs. Rivera
Ode Osbourne, TKO, R2
Wow, quick turnaround for Rivera, what a warrior. He lost a tough and competitive decision just last week against Francisco Figueiredo (the champ's brother). That's very brave, but on such short notice, and against someone as dangerous and explosive as Osbourne, that doesn't sound like a good idea.

I'm hoping Edgar wins this fight.  I would love to see him make a run for the 135 title.

Gotta appreciate a guy in Rivera who’s willing to fight four times over the span of 6 or 7 months, especially considering he’s on a two-fight skid. I think the time off would have done him some good, though. In his last two fights he’s shown that he’s still rough around the edges. He drops his hands when he throws strikes (Nam finished him with a counter off a sloppy leg kick) and telegraphs a lot of his punches. That’s how Francisco Figueiredo was able to time everything and get Rivera to the ground whenever he wanted. Rivera also likes to stay in kicking range, which means he has to lunge to throw his straight left hand. This leaves him really exposed to counters. Against Ode’s speed and power, I think this will cost him. To be fair to Rivera, it’s not like Ode is on a much higher level. While he has speed and power, Ode’s still not as sharp as he could be. Any time he’s had a professional KO win, it’s come against someone with a losing record, and Rivera’s better than those guys. I don’t see Ode finishing Rivera with strikes, but I can see him getting the better of Rivera in almost any position, standing or on the ground. Ode by dec.

Day really has his work cut out for him on short notice here. He has good kicks and has shown that he can time the counter well. He actually dropped Davey Grant with the same shot that dropped Valiev in the Jones fight. That said, I think Valiev is on another level. He’s light on his feet, sets a very high and constant pace, and has devastating body shots. He's also really good and getting inside on taller fighters. I think it’s the body shots that will end Day’s night. At the start of the fight, Day keeps his hands high and leaves his ribs and liver exposed. If Davey Grant can land as much as he did to Day’s body, I think Valiev will double it and end it early. Valiev by TKO in the first.

Wow another cancelled bout. Glad they got replacements, damn!