Topic: UFC 258

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

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Tapology
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10.15.2020 | 10:36 AM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC 258
  • Saturday 02.13.2021 at 10:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ESPN
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC APEX
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Joe Rogan
  • MMA Bouts: 10
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Kamaru Usman   defeats   Gilbert Burns   via KO/TKO, Power Jab to Ground and Pound   0:34 Round 3 of 5, 10:34 Total Bout Page
Alexa Grasso   defeats   Maycee Barber   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Kelvin Gastelum   defeats   Ian Heinisch   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Ricky Sim贸n   defeats   Brian Kelleher   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Julian Marquez   defeats   Maki Pitolo   via Submission, Anaconda Choke   4:17 Round 3 of 3, 14:17 Total Bout Page
Anthony Hernandez   defeats   Rodolfo Vieira   via Submission, Arm-In Guillotine Choke   1:53 Round 2 of 3, 6:53 Total Bout Page
Belal Muhammad   defeats   Dhiego Lima   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Polyana Viana   defeats   Mallory Martin   via Submission, Armbar   3:18 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Chris Gutierrez   defeats   Andre Ewell   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Gabe Green   defeats   Phil Rowe   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 18

Tap867
Tap867
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02.13.2021 | 4:58 AM ET

Also, fair warning.

Predictions: 3 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 200 Points   |   Tied for 3649th

This card is a disaster for betting. Good luck all.

"Everybody wants to be a bodybuilder, but nobody wants to lift no heavy-ass weights. - Ronnie Coleman"

TARTARA
TARTARA
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02.13.2021 | 4:58 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 225 Points   |   Tied for 3558th

@Boroz Nice man 馃憤! Good luck, have a good one! 

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

TARTARA
TARTARA
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02.13.2021 | 5:12 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 225 Points   |   Tied for 3558th

Tap867 

Indeed, is a "sleeper" (like the cars)!
Also good luck to you! 
I hope we go to the cash desk and not to the bucket!
Ha ha ha!

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

Hippie
Hippie

02.13.2021 | 8:06 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 425 Points   |   Tied for 964th

Vl

TARTARA
TARTARA
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02.13.2021 | 8:10 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 225 Points   |   Tied for 3558th

Mask Offs 

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

NgannouPunch
NgannouPunch
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02.13.2021 | 8:30 AM ET

Punch Picks

Predictions: 4 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 290 Points   |   Tied for 3003rd




I'm only putting paper down Usman, Simon, and Barber. Rest are just guesses and Draftkings plays. Good luck boys.
TARTARA
TARTARA
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02.13.2021 | 8:41 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 225 Points   |   Tied for 3558th

Good luck man! 

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

pie2munch
pie2munch
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02.13.2021 | 9:41 AM ET

Predictions: 7 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 425 Points   |   Tied for 863rd

well after last weeks disastrous picks, here's the redemption picks hahahaha...or not




JPosadas
JPosadas
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02.13.2021 | 9:53 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 1994th



This really is just a terrible PPV; I'm probably not going to watch it.

Good luck to everyone on their picks though.

"I want to **** Chuck" - Wanderlei Silva

BradThom717
BradThom717
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02.13.2021 | 10:07 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 450 Points   |   Tied for 618th

Barber vs. Grasso
Maycee Barber, DEC
Idk why I find Maycee Barber so intriguing.....

Marquez vs. Pitolo
Julian Marquez, TKO, R2
For me, this one is gonna come down to Marquez' hard ass head and chin vs. Maki's gas tank. Which one cracks first, is going to the hospital.

Vieira vs. Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R1
Wanna talk about a nightmare... I have nightmares about Rodolfo Vieira. Scary man. And I do generally enjoy Fluffer-nutter Hernandez, I think he's way better than he's been able to show inside the octagon, and he just keeps getting these horrible matchups. He's got a definite edge in striking, but... It's not gonna do him any good when he's trapped on the mat, with a brick ****house sitting on top of him, flattening him out.

Viana vs. Martin
Mallory Martin, DEC
There's MMA Math splattered left and right on this one. I refuse to pick Viana again. she got me 3x in a row. And surely, Martin is atleast equivalent to Macedo, Cifers, and Aldrich.... All whom beat Viana 3x in a row. Speaking of Cifers, Viana went the distance in a losing effort. Martin strangled Cifers on the other hand. Both of these ladies have some huge holes. That doesn't sound right. Huge holes in their games, like throwing a hotdog down a hallway. Off track again. Dammit. It's gonna come down to who can exploit the other's bigger hole. Dammit. Forget it.

Green vs. Rowe
Gabe Green, TKO, R2
******* gangly ass neil magny limbs. 80.5" reach at 6'3"... Fuuuuckkk man. I think if Green could take Danny Rodriguez' shots, after a 2.5 year layoff, he'll eat Rowe's shots for dinner.

"**** Fentanyl & **** Opiates too..."

mulefloyd
mulefloyd
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02.13.2021 | 11:27 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 375 Points   |   Tied for 1611th

Usman vs. Burns
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Would LOVE to be wrong

Marquez vs. Pitolo
Maki Pitolo, TKO, R2
Should be in the Hall of Fame for best nickname matchup

Sim贸n vs. Kelleher
Ricky Sim贸n, DEC
C'mon Boom, detonate that mullet

"Grammar. The difference between knowing your **** and knowing you're ****."

Cageside_Chole
Cageside_Chole
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02.13.2021 | 11:35 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 400 Points   |   Tied for 1183rd

Usman vs. Burns
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Usman may be a bit boring at times but there's no denying that he can control any fighter he wants to and I can't see Burns being too much of a threat to him

Barber vs. Grasso
Maycee Barber, TKO, R1
Barber will be looking to make a good comeback after her loss to Modafferi so I would expect her to come out all guns blazing to find a statement KO. FOTN

Gastelum vs. Heinisch
Ian Heinisch, DEC
Heinisch is a very challenging opponent and I can only see Gastelum's losing streak continue here

Marquez vs. Pitolo
Julian Marquez, TKO, R2
I think they will both resect each other's power and will be a bit hesitant in the first round but after that I expect them to start trading some more shots which I'm sure will result in a KO for Marquez

Sim贸n vs. Kelleher
Ricky Sim贸n, DEC
Simon is capable of winning this through a submission but I think he will play it safe and go for an easy decision

Vieira vs. Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R1
Vieira is a submission expert so I can only see him winning by a submission early in the fight

Lima vs. Muhammad
Belal Muhammad, DEC
If Muhammad is going to finish the fight then his best route to victory is through a submission but I can't see Lima being submitted so I think Muhammad for a wide points win is the most realistic outcome here

Viana vs. Martin
Mallory Martin, SUB, R3
Martin's ground game is often overlooked but I think that once Viana starts to get tired, she will make a few mistakes allowing Martin to find the finish

Ewell vs. Gutierrez
Chris Gutierrez, DEC
This is going to be a very close scrap!

Green vs. Rowe
Gabe Green, DEC
Green has the best resume and I'm not convinced about Rowe yet so I will pick Green to win here

Robertson vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Robertson has made a bad mistake taking this fight at short notice and is surely heading for another loss here

"We fall but we get up because the ground is no place for a champion - Dustin Poirier"

Hippie
Hippie

02.13.2021 | 11:51 AM ET

馃

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 425 Points   |   Tied for 964th

It鈥檚 fight night!!   Get em Bruce!



stewgots
stewgots
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02.13.2021 | 12:05 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 1994th

Marty from Nebraska!

* Edited at 02.13.2021, 12:05 PM ET *

VicVinegar
VicVinegar
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02.13.2021 | 12:28 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 1506th

Usman vs. Burns
Kamaru Usman, TKO, R5
Looking forward to this fight between these two killers. Looking at the numbers these two fighters have put up over their UFC careers it's hard to envision anyone but Usman coming out on top. Usman is an eye popping 12-0 in the UFC. He lands 4.5 SS/Min while absorbing only 2.23. He has landed 47 takedowns in his UFC career and has been taken down 0 times. He has a whopping 54.39% control time percentage and has given up 1.47% in control time. He scores 125.26 Draft Kings PPG and only gives up 18.89 and for Fanduel he scores 112.1 per fight and gives up 38.28. The dominance Usman has shown over his UFC career is incredible. If anything Usman is underrated at this point in his career. This fight will take place whereever Usman wants it to take place. Usman cruises to a late TKO stoppage and continues his dominance. Easiest fight to call on the card in my opinion.

Barber vs. Grasso
Maycee Barber, DEC
This is a great matchup between two up and coming young ladies. Grasso is the slicker, more refined striker here and Barber is tough as nails and is a grinder who swings hard. On the aggregate Grasso has fought the tougher competition but her wins arent really any better than Barbers, the difference here is Grasso has lost to better competition than Barber has. Barber is coming off a layoff after tearing her acl at the beginning of the Modafferi fight so its hard to go all in on Barber until we know she will be as strong as she was before the fight with Roxanne. I'm siding with Barber here, the smaller cage should play to her advantage and I feel like the recency bias is giving us a gift getting Barber at plus money. Barber will use her grappling and top control and G&P to secure the decision victory here.

Gastelum vs. Heinisch
Kelvin Gastelum, DEC
In my opinion, Usman is the only favorite on this card in my opinion that is a safe bet. There are so many questions left to be answered on the rest of the favorites on this slate. Gastelum has lost 3 fights in a row, yet he is a -220 favorite here. How can you feel safe laying that kind of juice on Gastelum looking at his recent performances against a super tough opponent like Heinisch? I see the reasons that Kelvin is the favorite here. He is the better boxer, busier striker, and has fought much tougher opponents in his UFC career, and yes, he is younger as well! Gastelum has always had good wrestling in his back pocket as well so he might be able to dictate where this fight takes place. I will pick Gastelum here for those reasons, however, I wouldnt be surprised if Heinisch pulled off the upset here. If I were to bet Gastelum, the +110 decision prop would feel like the best option because Heinisch is super tough and will be so difficult to finish in a 3 round fight.

Marquez vs. Pitolo
Julian Marquez, TKO, R2
As a gambler, this fight is a big, fat PASS! No way in hell to know where Marquez will be after this 2 year plus layoff coming off a very serious lat injury where he tore his lat off the bone and was told by one doctor that his fighting career is over. Even coming off 2 years of inactivity and a serious injury, there arent many reasons to like Pitolo either. He hasnt looked great in the UFC so far at all. He isnt consistent enough to trust with your money. If Marquez is healthy and has gotten better it will be really hard to find a path to victory for Pitolo but of course, those are 2 very big ifs. For the sake of my pick I am going to assume Marquez IS healthy and has improved so I'm picking Julian by 2nd round KO with very little confidence due to the unanswered questions.

Sim贸n vs. Kelleher
Ricky Sim贸n, DEC
This is my pick for FOTN. Kelleher is a kill or be killed fighter and Simon will oblige him by going for the finish as well. Simon will have to watch out for Kellehers guillotine to stay out of trouble here and if he is successful in doing that I do see him having the advantage almost everywhere with the possible exception of power. Simon is the better wrestler, has a better top game and is an underrated boxer but I do see Simon having more of an advantage on the ground than on the feet. Boom showed against Azure that he does have big time power in those hands of his so the safest path to victory for Simon is to use his wrestling and top game to control Kelleher while watching out for that guillotine. I'm picking Simon by decision but no way I would bet this fight going to decision, both of these guys could finish this fight.

Vieira vs. Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R1
This is SUCH a bad matchup for Hernandez. This is my pick for ass-shaving of the night. Vieira by strangulation.

Lima vs. Muhammad
Belal Muhammad, TKO, R3
At the time I am writing this Belal is a -500 favorite to win this fight. He is -139 to win by decision. Lima has been finished in 4 out of his 5 UFC losses though so that probably isnt a good bet either. Its hard to see Belal losing this fight. He has such good fight IQ that in the unlikely scenario he winds up losing this fight on the feet he will just take it to the ground. Belal has a knack of fighting the fight where he is most comfortable and where his opponent is the least comfortable. For that reason I hate betting against him. I need to pick Belal here and I see him getting a 3rd round GnP victory here. Chicago, stand up and support your boy Belal!

Viana vs. Martin
Mallory Martin, TKO, R2
Mallory Martin is mean. The first round of her fight against Cifers worries me but I'm not particularly jazzed about Viana's chances here either. I think Martin will try to win this fight on the feet first but if that doesnt go well for her she will have to use her wrestling and if she does that she could be playing with fire. Viana has a well documented BJJ pedigree so I'm not sure if Martin wants to test that but her wrestling and top game have always been her best paths to victory. Hard fight to pick but I'm betting Martin drilled enough armbar and triangle defense to pull off the victory here. Martin by 2nd round Donkey Kong-esque GnP. Get it Mallory!!!

Ewell vs. Gutierrez
Andre Ewell, DEC
Interesting fight here, Gutierrez coming in on short notice against a crafty striker in Ewell. Neither of these guys are great finishers (1 finish in 7 combined wins between them), however, in their 3 combined UFC losses there is a 100% finish rate. That being said I think the safest way to bet this fight is to pick whatever fighter you like to win by decision. Both of these guys are strikers first and grapplers second but neither one of these guys is likely to try to get the fight to the ground. Both of these guys will be comfortable strking so we will probably see a good fight here. Ewell is longer and has the nicer hands but Chris's calf kick attack and the fact he trains at elevation so he always has a good gas tank cant be ignored. So hard to pick a winner here but I will guess Ewell by razor-thin split decision.

Green vs. Rowe
Gabe Green, DEC
This should be a great scrap. Lots of unanswered questions with Rowe's layoff and lack of quality competition in his career. Green looked great in his UFC debut coming in on short notice against D-Rod. I'm picking Green here because he has fought better competition and it looks on paper like he is the better grappler. I'll pick Green by decision but this fight could easily finish inside the distance.

Robertson vs. Maverick
Gillian Robertson, DEC
This is a great way to start the card. Both of these ladies really get after it and are very solid grapplers. Robertson has more experience and on paper has the better grappling pedigree. Maverick is really strong and has great wresting and is very young. So much room for her to improve and get better still. I am going to give Robertson the slight grappling edge here and for that reason I am picking her to win because I dont see this fight playing out on the feet. Robertson by hard fought decision is the pick. Good luck to everyone betting this card!

"I fell in love with the box" Renato Moicano

wcr89
wcr89
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02.13.2021 | 12:33 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 5 Perfect, 425 Points   |   Tied for 964th

Ewell vs. Gutierrez
Andre Ewell, DEC
gutierrez z doskoku

HiDefff
HiDefff

02.13.2021 | 1:41 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 300 Points   |   Tied for 2749th

I've changed my pick in the Grasso Barber fight to Barber after hearing her point out that the only people to beat Grasso are the girls who out wrestled her and its a clear path to victory. I think Barber has a grapple heavy game plan here tonight. 
NickySwaz
NickySwaz
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02.13.2021 | 1:45 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points   |   Tied for 2968th

Barber could stop her on the ground too

"鈥淲hat happened to you, USA? Wake up, USA! Go! Go back for you, go! Go for Jesus. No forgay Jesus people." -Yoel Romero"

HiDefff
HiDefff

02.13.2021 | 1:47 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 300 Points   |   Tied for 2749th

I actually think she does find a 2nd or 3rd round TKO on the ground 

* Edited at 02.13.2021, 1:47 PM ET *

DurangoKWest
DurangoKWest
  • Member Since: 2020.11.26
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02.13.2021 | 1:51 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 1 of 3 Winners, 1 Perfect, 75 Points   |   Tied for 4013th

Vieira vs. Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R1
Vieira actually could get KO'd or TKO'd, but I think this is the closest thing to a lock on the card and the odds reflect it.

"Become unpredictable, strike from your subconscious mind, let your moves flow out of your individual essence. Even the most masterful opponent will fall from a strike that has no history or reference."

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