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Petr Yan vs Aljo Sterling

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rkn5
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09.02.2020 | 1:24 PM ET

Petr Yan (#12 P4P) fights Aljo, probably, at the end of the year (Nov/Dec) for his first Bantamweight championship defense. 


Does #2 Aljamain Sterling, stand a chance against the Russian? 

Aljo is coming off a dominant victory over young contender Corey Sandhagen (#4). 

I would love to see Aljo win because he is from New York, and he certainly is confident that he will defeat Yan.

But my logic says Yan is too dominant and complete. Although Aljo has great grappling, Yan has enough ground skills to cancel him out. And Yan's striking is a level above Aljo.

So:
  • Yan's superior striking vs Aljo's length - will be interesting to see; Yan, I think, has too much sauce for Aljo in this department. Can Aljo keep him out of reach? Can Aljo's striking compete with Yan's?
  • Aljo's grappling vs Yan's grappling - will be interesting to see; Can Aljo dominant Yan on the ground?

Responses

tepid55
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09.02.2020 | 3:48 PM ET

I think this fight will be a lot more competitive than most people think think it will be.
rkn5
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09.02.2020 | 3:55 PM ET

So how do you see it playing out? What's your prediction? 

And when do you think they will make the fight?
tepid55
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09.02.2020 | 3:59 PM ET

I think the fight will happen early next year and right now my prediction is that Yan wins by decision.
rkn5
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09.02.2020 | 4:06 PM ET

I hope we get the fight end of this year (Nov/Dec Fight Night). If it happens early next year I wouldn't be surprised...February/March PPV since Masvidal/Diaz 2 is in the works for January
rkn5
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09.02.2020 | 4:07 PM ET

I can see Yan decision, but I think he gets the finish...I think he's is more psychologically savage than Aljo.

I would be super surprised and happy if Aljo beats him. 
TWJake
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09.03.2020 | 12:52 AM ET

ALJO ALL THE WAY

"I know many a troops that I visit when I went to Iraq in 2005... 2-uh excuse me in 19-or.. 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 2010 2011. I went from the Korwaiten border! All the way up to the Turkish border!" -Tito Ortiz

ImperatorFishrat
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09.03.2020 | 1:15 AM ET

Sorry my dude, but Aljo is defo not beating Yan. He might get out of it only being decisioned but yeah, he's gonna get hurt either way. I don't see anyone beating Yan for quite a while.

* Edited at 09.03.2020, 1:21 AM ET *

This user is suspended from posting until 8 years, 11 months, 2 weeks, 3 days, 23 hours, and 46 minutes from now.
rkn5
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09.03.2020 | 1:36 AM ET

TW, does "Aljo all the way" mean you're rooting for Aljo? Or you predict he will win?

because I'm rooting for Aljo but I don't think he will win.

What's your prediction for the fight?
TWJake
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09.03.2020 | 8:47 AM ET

Both, Aljo by sub fairly late

* Edited at 09.03.2020, 9:38 AM ET *

"I know many a troops that I visit when I went to Iraq in 2005... 2-uh excuse me in 19-or.. 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 2010 2011. I went from the Korwaiten border! All the way up to the Turkish border!" -Tito Ortiz

njrp77
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09.03.2020 | 9:18 AM ET

50/50

We haven’t seen Yan’s grappling tested 
Tieoken
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09.03.2020 | 9:19 AM ET

I’m on the complete other end of the spectrum. If Aljo does drop as a dog I’ll put half my stack on him. I think Aljo is one step ahead of every other bantamweight at the moment. Honestly if Sandhagen dropped as a dog against Yan I’d take him too. IMO Yan is #4 in the division right now, and if he had fought any of the real top 5 it would have been exposed, his only win I respect is Rivera. I’ll be amazed if the line drops more than one std deviation off of 1.87/1.87

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

rkn5
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09.03.2020 | 10:16 AM ET

TW, I can see the sub fairly late...and it looks like Tieoken agrees with you. 

Tieoken you're the first person I've heard express the opinion that "Aljo is one step ahead of every other bantamweight." 

And I could only guess that you're real Top 5 includes: Aljo, Marlon, Corey, and either Munhoz or Merab???


How did you calculate the Standard Deviation?
Tieoken
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09.03.2020 | 11:16 AM ET

I wouldn’t put Merab in the top five IMO. I think Aljo has the most rounded out skill set of all bantamweights, while he’s not a better boxer than Yan I’d rate him to be competitive in MMA striking and definitely better in the clinch and ground.

The std dev thing is just if you set 1.87 to 1 and apply a typical bell curve. Not a real standard deviation lol, just my weird way of saying it won’t swing more than 33% from that number. It’s a phrase I use incorrectly a lot because it gets my point across usually.

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rkn5
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09.03.2020 | 11:20 AM ET

Tieoken, sounds like your top 5 is Aljo, Marlon, Corey, Yan and Munhoz


Its gonna be a hell of an interesting matchup. I agree Yan has the better boxing but I still think the overall striking of Yan is better than Aljos.


The ground, then, should make all the difference...to see what Aljo can do to him on the ground...and to see what Yan is made of, on the ground.
Tieoken
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09.03.2020 | 11:33 AM ET

Close enough, I’d throw TJ in that mix at #3 or #2, but it’ll be interesting to see how he comes back after getting caught by USADA. 

It’s an interesting fight for sure, Yan might be a victim of his own success and just got fast-tracked to the title. Maybe I’m underrating him, but his performance against Dodson and Rivera made me worried that he can keep up with the young contenders at the top of the division. The UFC feeding him Aldo and Faber didn’t help that doubt either lol. If he finishes Aljo then Yan will be the king of the Bantamweights for quite some time. Maybe a super fight between him and Deivison will happen, which would be dope.

* Edited at 09.03.2020, 11:34 AM ET *

"I’m here to snatch necks and cash checks" - Darrick Minner

rkn5
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09.03.2020 | 11:51 AM ET

Tieoken, Faber I agree was food for Yan but Aldo, although not elite anymore, is a legit top 10 opponent. 

I hope they make this fight for the December PPV or at least main event a fight night before 2020 is over.

I'm looking forward to the Figueiredo v Garbrandt for sure and would love to see the superfight between Figuieriedo and Yan.

TWJake
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09.03.2020 | 12:29 PM ET

I have Aljo listed as #1 in the world. Aldo is good, but i think that Sandhagen is better. In addition, Aljo has beaten more of the top guys than Yan has.

"I know many a troops that I visit when I went to Iraq in 2005... 2-uh excuse me in 19-or.. 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 2010 2011. I went from the Korwaiten border! All the way up to the Turkish border!" -Tito Ortiz

rkn5
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09.03.2020 | 12:32 PM ET

TW, just waiting for the fight to be announced! Glad you see Aljo as #1 BW because I hope he gets the victory
TWJake
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09.03.2020 | 12:36 PM ET

I hope so too. Don't want you guys to misunderstand what im saying (not saying you are) Yan obviously has the skills and I like him, but he hasnt been tested like Aljo has

"I know many a troops that I visit when I went to Iraq in 2005... 2-uh excuse me in 19-or.. 05' 06' 07' 08' 09' 2010 2011. I went from the Korwaiten border! All the way up to the Turkish border!" -Tito Ortiz

rkn5
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09.03.2020 | 1:02 PM ET

TW, I didn't really realize or factor in the strength of schedule of each guy...and it wasnt in my awareness that Sterling is more proven than Yan...I just look at their individual abilities and come to the conclusion....

But I like that you factor in the quality of their opponents because in that light it gives Aljo a better shot.

Its a super interesting fight...with many uknowns and we dont know how the chemicals we react when poured into the octagon...best case scenario Aljo takes us by storm and dominates Yan in grappling and maybe stand up....but I see Yan being a bit tougher with hard pop in his hands...maybe excellent counter-takedowns but maybe Aljo can backpack him and dominate with RNC.


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