UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

What about Jacare!?

How many more times will they have to find a new opponent for Hermansson? I've always wondered if the changes mess with the fighter's preparation, if for instance he [Hermansson] was planning a certain tactic for Till and that got scrapped and then had to come up with another tactic for Holland and that gets scrapped, does that mess with their preparation much or do they just focus on strengthening the weakest aspects of their own game rather than tailoring tactics for certain opponents?

I think that's a difficult question to answer since this is such an individual sport, and a fighters mentality and confidence can change from fight to fight. I think mentally he'll be ready, but "tactically" it's hard to say.


There are some fighters, like Tony and Khabib, who have said many times before that they focus mainly on training their own skills and not focus too much about the opponents. I think they have just insane confidence in their individual styles that they crafted and the skills they posses, they probably truly do feel like they can fight anyone, any time, any place.


Jack might be taking that same approach, just focus in on taking his current toolbox and sharpening all the tools he normally uses and then trying to just win the fight either on the fly, or see what the coaches came up with for him in the time they had to study the new opponent. I just don't know what Jack does in the weeks leading up to the fight - does he have the time to drill and go over scenarios for certain tactics, or is he one of those guys that just does some basic workouts and padwork drills to cut all the weight? We also don't know if his travel and all the COVID guidelines affect any of his preparation. Too many variables to get through, and this isn't a PPV so we don't even get an embedded to try and get  some clarity on this.

Hermansson vs. Vettori
Marvin Vettori, TKO, R2
A lot better of Hermansson vs Holland, great matchup! They're both great wrestlers, i think Jack has the better ground game, but Marvin has the better striking game, hard to predict but i think Vettori can use his great takedown defence to stay on the feet and beat Hermansson with striking.

Hermansson vs. Vettori
Marvin Vettori, TKO, R2
Well damn marvin should have this pretty much anyway he likes, wish holland got his chance.

Great matchup between Hermansson and Vettori, a lot better then the Holland one. I think it will be a hell of a fight. Two great wrestler, but i think Vettori is gonna win, he is better in striking and he can stay on the feet thanks to his good takedown defence. 

I don't get what you guy are seeing, Hermanson is a great fighter and I don't think Vettori is dangerous enough to make Hermanson hessitants

Hermansson vs. Vettori
Jack Hermansson, SUB, R4
This is actually a great replacement. Vettori is a very promising fighter, and gave Adesanya a close and competitive fight. He should win the stand up battle, but I think he may fail in the later rounds...

Hermansson vs. Vettori
Marvin Vettori, TKO, R2
Hermansson is vulnerable to body shots, Vittori has a good enough level of grappling to avoid back mounts or leg locks.

St. Preux vs. Hill
Ovince St. Preux, SUB, R2
OSP against another overrated striker. Ovince has good defensive boxing, body kicks, and the ability to take the fight to the ground (Hill has a weak takedown defense). Another Von Flue choke for the record books ...

Santos vs. De La Rosa
Taila Santos, DEC
Santos greatly improved his takedown defense, Montana standing up is nonexistent.

Dolidze vs. Allan
Roman Dolidze, TKO, R2
Dolidze is a monster, Allan is a tough guy, but he finishes before the limit

Evloev vs. Landwehr
Movsar Evloev, DEC
Missmatch

Wiman vs. Leavitt
Jordan Leavitt, SUB, R1
There is a big difference in reach. Wiman was never submitted, Leavitt probably won via Ground & Pound.

Jackson vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, DEC
Topuria will win easily if he makes a smart fight.

Benítez vs. Jaynes
Gabriel Benítez, DEC
Jaynes' only chance would be another Hail Mary Hooks like Camacho fight. Mogly can take it to the distance

* Edited at 11.29.2020, 9:08 PM ET *

Wiman vs. Leavitt
Jordan Leavitt, SUB, R2
Leavitt is the type of guy that knows his strengths and won't get dragged into a war. I know Wiman has never been submitted in his 16 year career, but Leavitt will be the bigger guy and I think his top pressure can present openings that leads to a choke of some sort. I'll go with late sub or decision for Leavitt.

big bets-
Jack Hermanson @+112. Don't think Vettori is as good as people think he is, Just because he got a ******** split loss over Izzy, Hermanson only loses to scary people with power like Mahetta and Cannonour. Vettori is a decsion guy so he ain't scary. Think he gonna go to the ground and finish him like Gastulum

Medium Bets
- Edit: Was thinking about betting Merab, But Raini is not fighting

Jake Colliher-@+180.  Because I think Gian Vilante is a fat guy now on his way out. Don't know anything about Colliher, but he did Job to either Aspalnal or  big Daukous. . More reseach neaded

Stab in the dark bets- Picking the other one but just like the line

Montana De La Rosa @+180 But I'm  gonna bet the Dec line .  50/50 fight because It low level WMMA. Can't take anyone serrouslly as a fighter who lose to Mara Borella,  Both will or already have got they're ass kicked from the top of the division. 

Nate Landweir @+400 Maybe put it on the inside the Distance. Think Nate Landweir is a mad man and Landweir is scrappy and he has great takedown defence stopping most of Elkins defence. Redneck Homer Simpson is live 


Parley- Don't lisent to me on Parley. Im horrible at them

All Georgian Parley/ Ilia , Roman +135 Because Georgian have been on a roll and I think is like 14-0 in 2020
Contender Seris Fade parley/ Durdan, OSP- +632. Contender Series guy in a general sence are Overated. Levit is a contender Series guy also but Im not beting Weiman

* Edited at 11.29.2020, 8:57 PM ET *

Hermansson vs. Vettori
Jack Hermansson, SUB, R2
Anybody wanna take a guess how many times someone has attempted a submission on Vettori in his UFC career? Zero. Wait, I need to justify this more? Marvin Vettori is 0-1-1 against anyone he's fought with decent ground game. His Takedown defence and offence are punctuated by a high work rate and are impressive in the regard that he can stifle and outwork a lot of people. I rate Vettori in the top 10 pretty clearly. But Hermansson isn't even mildly afraid of going to the ground with you and he's not gonna sit there and let you push him against the fence and score points on him, he's gonna be happy that you came into his world. Hermannson has all of the stats: height, reach, sig strike accuracy, tddefence, and work rate over Vettori against a much much stronger strength of schedule. What moreover, is that realistically the only people at 185 who are going to beat Hermansson are the guys who have one punch KO power. If you ignore Hermansson at +140 against Vetorri you just bet on a whim and you don't have any definable method for picking fighters. Which hey, I don't fault that I do it too occasionally, but the only way Vettori wins this is by keeping the fight on the feet for 5 rounds and beating the fighter with better striking stats against much better fighters. I don't see how he wins this on the ground. The only upside I see for Vetorri is that he was preparing for similar threats in having Jacare as an opponent.

St. Preux vs. Hill
Ovince St. Preux, SUB, R2
Oddmakers are dumb. Look Jamahahal Hill has some clean power and good techniques where he utilizes his, namely a a feint straight left and his left high kicks. But he has had the benefit of bullying substandard opponents who give up SIGNIFiCANT physical advantages in both heigh and reach. All of his UFC wins are against opponents who were on there way out anyways. Go watch the Stosic and Townsend fight because that's where I wrote a lot of my notes from, but his problems have been consistent throughout his career. Hill has clean boxing offense, but some of the worst boxing defense I have ever seen. He paws his jab out there constantly as a range finder (which is great I love that) but he reacts to punches by meeting them with his hands out. He rushes in on his blitzes and brings his hands to his chest and leaves himself open to be countered cleanly (See round 1 vs Townsend or Stosic). He has very active striking and I would give him a big advtange over St. Preux in boxing cardio, but his ground cardio is garbage (at least circa 2018). His neck attack and submission defense awareness as a whole is very lacking (see Townsend fight), but he's usually okay at keeping it standing against his unranked opponents so far. He's going to be fighting another southpaw this time and he has virtually no cage experience with that unlike St. Preux. I think Hill can win if he tags St. Preux early and makes him hesitant, but from what I've seen whenever he fights someone with similar height and reach he's the one who is hesitant and throws a lot more volume with a lot less power. St. Preux isn't overly impressive to me as a whole, and he can drop fights he should have won so I'm pretty cautious with him. But I have him as about a -170 favorite by my numbers. And the line opened up with him as a small favorite but people love betting on younger undefeated fighters. I think this fight goes Frankie vs Yair style but with a submission instead of G&P. 2.8U to return 7U

Evloev vs. Landwehr
Movsar Evloev, TKO, R3
This was a parlay builder, but not the odds are so beat up it's not even attractive. If you got Evloev when he was in the -300s then good ****, I did and I put him in a few parlays but the line isn't really worth it anymore.

Flick vs. Durden
Jimmy Flick, SUB, R3
Here is another one that you don't need to read into too much. Cody Durden is a strong wrestler who believes in quanitity over quality. He is going to push a frenetic pace against Jimmy Flick who is a master of chaos and scrambling and finding submissions in that Chaos. Flick is kind of like hillbilly Tim Elliot but with a bit more composure. The submission will come, early or late for Flick. I expect Durden to steal one round though through work rate alone. 3U to return 4.5U and then i have a prop bet for him to win by sub 1U and him in my SUBstacular Parlay.

Jackson vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, SUB, R2
Damon Jackson has good BJJ and moderate wrestling. Ilia Topuria has AMAZING wrestling and great BJJ. This is a wash through and through. Ilia has the better cardio and better striking defence. I'm not quite sure if I give him the edge in striking offense but it's not going to matter. He took down Zalal at will (granted Zalal wasn't offering a lot of opposition) and has had his way with everyone he's faced on the ground. While Jackson has also done that on the regional scene, he's never done that to anyone like Zalal. I wanna bet this really heavily, but I won't because I think there are still questions to be answered about Topuria, but I do have him in a parlay with Flick and Hermansson to all win by sub just for fun.

Smolka vs. Quiñonez
Jose Alberto Quiñonez, DEC
I said my piece here. It's a risky fight to bet and if you are betting it, it's not because you're believing in one fighter doing the right things to win it's because you're belieiving in the other fighter to drop the ball. Personally I have less faith in Smolka. 1U on Quinonez because I'm dumb and it placed the bet on a site where you can't pull them.

Flick vs. Durden
Cody Durden, TKO, R1
Don’t understand why everyone is picking Flick. Durden was able to hang on the feet with Gutierrez at bantamweight and has lots of kos on his record and Flick has been kod A LOT. Durden round 1 KO

Because Durden is going to kill himself to make 125 which he has missed attempting to do multiple times. The ONE time in his career he actually made it? He lost horribly. Meanwhile Flick exclusively loses at 135 in fights he takes on short notice. It’s not a lock of a fight, but Flick quite clearly has the superior path to victory and is the better fighter at 125.

Hermansson vs. Vettori
Jack Hermansson, SUB, R1
Marvin keeps messing around. I'll never beat Hermanson.

Hermansson vs. Vettori
Marvin Vettori, DEC
Vettori gets better and better each fight, I think his pressure will be too much for Jack. Vettori is young so maybe he makes a mistake and Jack takes his neck, but I think if the fight plays out "on paper" then Vettori has a more well rounded style that will shut down Jack.

How much time has Marvin spent in the grappling against Carlos? 2 ******* minutes? Maybe 3?
Vettori slowed down in the 2nd and 3rd round against CF, and in the 3rd against Sanchez so why he cannot against Jack who's much better than those guys? Vettori's legkick defense is also very weak and Jack is an underrated striker.
I'm not saying he can't win but he needs to perform a lot better than in the Diego Ferreira fight.

I've already bet my house on Edwards so nah.