UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa

Hakeem Dawodu   vs.   Zubaira Tukhug
Tukhug, dec.

Not confident. Hakeem has the power to sleep anyone but he also gets gunshy when fighting someone with respectable returning fire, has poor ring IQ, questionable conditioning, and doesn't have a lot of shots in his arsenal. Turhug is definitely the better fighter overall. If this makes it out of the first and he's not been 10-8'ed or worse in that round I can see him taking over in 2-3 for a dec.

Israel Adesanya   vs.   Paulo Costa  
Costa, KO/TKO R2/3


The safest pick here is Adesanya by decision. Let's just get that out of the way. If you compare  strikes absorbed P/M between both fighters, the stats suggest that Costa is going to eat a lot more **** than he's going to land. I don't think those stats are particularly useful in predicting a fight like this however.


Adesanya is an incredible striker and anyone who wants to play tit for tat with him in a game of in/out kickboxing is going to get ****** up, just like Whittaker found out. The thing is, I watched Adesanya get a taste of a single power shot (that didn't land flush) courtesy of Yoel Romero and subsequently spend the rest of the fight slinging around the cage en route to a leg kick decision. During that, Romero was able to cut off Izzy and get him against the fence and strangely didn't capitalize on these moments. Gastelum was also able to do this to him, and did capitalize. It wasn't enough, but it happened.


What I can say without a shred of doubt is that Paulo Costa is far better at cutting off and smashing people against the cage than either of those two fighters. His output is also considerably higher--in fact I believe it is either the highest or second highest in the UFC. He also hits very hard--as least as hard as Yoel. His pressure is excellent, and really only Yoel has stood up to it--and Romero has an Ungodly chin. 


So does Costa. He was able to withstand Yoel's biggest bombs, even laughing at him and waving him on afterwards. I don't think Adesanya can really hurt Costa. I think he either knows that already, or will figure it out pretty quickly. What we'll see is something like what I imagine happens when the elephant learns not to fear the Mahoot's whip. 


I think Costa will just kind of wade through it--will keep marching forward, getting tagged a lot by back-foot stuff and teep that is more annoying than anything else, and consistently land the better bigger stuff over three rounds as Adesanya tries to score while staying the **** out of intimate range. Izzis NOT going to look for a dogfight here. I expect Paulo to come out like a bull at a gate in R1 and land **** that gets Izzy's respect---and from there, keep a more moderate forward-pressure pace. Costa by late-ish TKO or dec.

* Edited at 09.24.2020, 3:12 AM ET *

If you've got Adesanya I'm not going to say you're ********. I will not be remotely surprised if he does win here and as I said in the first line, the safest bet is Izzy by dec.

Whittaker and Costa are totally different strikers who fight in totally different ways. Whittaker tried to win a technical kickboxing match with Izzy and naturally got wrecked, because Izzy will wreck anyone in that scenario. Costa is a different deal. He's not going to be giving Adesanya the space he needs. There will be no in-and-out fighting here. It's going to be Izzy on the back foot 100% of the time. Watch Adesanya's fights. He always does best when he keeps his opponent on the very edge of his punches.

* Edited at 09.24.2020, 1:45 AM ET *

I don't either. If it goes past R3 and Costa hasn't taken all of them or scored a 10-8 or more then Izzy wins.