UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Jeez!  I just had a scan through Oleiniks record to see how many Ezekiel chokes he has. 12 in total! That's around 15% of his total fights(win or lose) are him winning by Ezekiel! 20% of all his victories!!!
That is insane!!! 

Cejudo is one odd duck, but I like what he brings

Kicking pillows at the ceremonial weigh ins

Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Tony Ferguson, SUB, R4
Gaethje starts out fast, probably scoring a knockdown or maybe 2. But I think he has 2 rounds to get the job done. After that, Ferguson starts to wear him down and I think Ferguson gets a submission in the championship rounds. I'll say round 4. It'll be a blood bath either way.

Cejudo vs. Cruz
Henry Cejudo, DEC
I think this'll be more competetive then it seems a lot of people think but I'll still say Cejudo. I think he'll pull away in the championship rounds and earn a tight decision.

N'Gannou vs. Rozenstruik
Francis N'Gannou, TKO, R1
I respect Rozenstruik for calling out one of the scariest people ever in Ngannou, but I feel like he's biting off a little more than he can chew here. Ngannou's on a mission and he's looked much improved in his last 3 wins (even though they didn't last long). I think his revenge tour continues at the expense or Rozenstruik.

Stephens vs. Kattar
Calvin Kattar, DEC
This fights a toss up for me. Stephens has lost 3 straight but hasn't really been dominated. Kattar's looked very good his last few fights, even in his loss to Zabit. I think Stephens will be tough enough to not get finished, but I think Kattar boxes him up here in a wild one.

Hardy vs. De Castro
Yorgan De Castro, TKO, R2
Hardy improved a lot over the course of his first year in the UFC, but I'm on the De Castro train right now. Either way, someone's going down.

Cerrone vs. Pettis II
Donald Cerrone, DEC
Both desperately need a win here.I'll go Cowboy because Pettis is always a hit or miss, more miss than hit though.

Werdum vs. Oleinik
Fabrício Werdum, DEC
In his return fight, Werdum keeps it standing and picks apart Oleinik to cruise to a decision win.

Esparza vs. Waterson
Michelle Waterson, SUB, R3
I've never been impressed with Esparza (maybe I just can't get the beatdown Joanna gave her but idk). Waterson picks her apart on the feet and submits her late.

Souza vs. Hall
Ronaldo Souza, SUB, R2
One of the fights I'm most looking forward to watching, I think this fight is wild on the feet but Jacare takes Hall to the ground and ends it with relative ease there.

Not at all what I expected pretty mellow except lil heathen looked pissed.
And the midget proving dwarfishm is not his biggest abnormality.
Seriously he made dom cruz look big thats just funny.
Fergy was ominously chill as was justin, weirdest thing half the hw looked like they should be in lhw.  

Cowboy at the weigh in looked like he couldn’t give 2 ****s

Hard to put any stock on him, especially after already losing to pettis

24 hours to go

sorry free, had to post that

You apologize to free, but that was my concept!
(I may or may not have taken the concept from void)

23 hours to go! 

Sorry TW... There now u apologize to void and we can get on with it.

* Edited at 05.08.2020, 7:34 PM ET *

No close up face offs due to corona virus.

@josh what makes you say Stephens was pissed. All I could see was his right ear and the back of his head.

Wow cejudo is the biggest idiot ever. 

Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Tony Ferguson, SUB, R3
crazier things have happened, but tony is a bad matchup for almost anyone.

Cejudo vs. Cruz
Henry Cejudo, DEC
even as a big wec fan, i hate this matchup, and i'm not sold dom can effectively answer with shots when he knows he has to actually respect the wrestling of his opponent.

N'Gannou vs. Rozenstruik
Francis N'Gannou, DEC
not convinced someone gets ended here, but i can say that rozenstruik was losing to overeem before the ko so i gotta think francis is still the rightful favorite.

Stephens vs. Kattar
Calvin Kattar, DEC
feel like despite the weight advantage, kattar is still gonna be able to make stephens miss on his big looping shots.

Hardy vs. De Castro
Greg Hardy, TKO, R2
honestly coin flip. gotta give hardy props for surviving with volkov and i expect the loss still helped him a lot. de castro could be the guy to actually finish him, as could probably any hw, but i'd rather be proven wrong than say that's what's likely.

Cerrone vs. Pettis II
Anthony Pettis, DEC
not to be ungrateful, but this fight is pointless to me, especially at 170. expecting both guys to be overly respectful and tepid because i'm a cynic.

Werdum vs. Oleinik
Fabrício Werdum, TKO, R2
love me some boa, but i'd think extremely low percentage chance he subs werdum and he's woefully outgunned standing minus his hail mary overhand distance closer. even a diminished werdum should have this i'd think.

Esparza vs. Waterson
Carla Esparza, DEC
seems like everyone else has the same "there's gotta be ONE upset" idea and zoned in on this one. i kinda concur. michelle "should" have the standing advantage, but can she stay off her back? honestly unsure, but i don't see her subbing carla. i think i've convinced myself to flipflop. michelle isn't gonna outwork carla unless she tags her bad and finishes.

Souza vs. Hall
Ronaldo Souza, DEC
can't get misled by jacare's losses, they're all close fights minus whittaker. hard to trust uriah to pull the trigger too so i gotta take souza. probably decision though?

Luque vs. Price
Vicente Luque, TKO, R2
2 rematches on this card that i don't find much interest in. i don't see the purpose, nor do i see the first fight as a fluke.

Rosa vs. Mitchell
Charles Rosa, DEC
hard to tell if we're gonna get a kb fight or some awesome scrambles, but i'm gonna hedge pick here. not a fan of rosa, but subbing bermudez is impressive so maybe he can keep bryce off of his back. mitchell has been getting favorable judging to some extent though so maybe that continues. i'm kinda hoping to be wrong.

Spann vs. Alvey
Ryan Spann, TKO, R2
feels like the oddsmakers are pretty accurate for this first card back, probably can't afford to lose after the downtime, so i'll keep that in mind. upsets welcome though. this is a mismatch of momentums, though maybe sam survives to see scorecards.

@tapology boom

Souza an Hall with masks and 10 ft distance and right after them Carla and KH hug with no masks.  

When he turn he had angry scowl, I saw all there faces what are you watching on a phone?
He was a few shades madder than when conmac asked him who the **** he was lol.

Wow bad english I saw all of there faces from side cept hall and souza of course masked up and gloves weird.

Void i would like to sincerely apologize for stealing the countdown concept

Sorry TW

Now **** and stay on top of clock watching

21 hours 33 minutes

 Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje 
It Tony Time *******!!! But seriously I think Tony is due for a loss soon and Gaethje has power. But Tony Ferguson is on a 12 fight win streak the tied 3rd longest in the Ufc and the 4 longest not getting finish streak. Gaeche get hit a lot and that not good when you fighting El Cucey as he maims people. But I see this fight lasting longer then both of Justin and Tony last couple fight because their no fragile or have no heart

Henry Cejudo vs Dominique Cruz
This fight is close and I made a lot of money on triple c betting on him in his DJ and TJ fight because people underestimate him because he a Douce. I think style match up i think Cruz  will win because style wise as he so much bigger then him and Im a huge fan of Cruz  and his footwork and with all his injury it unpossble to not root for him. But Im picking Cejudo because of statistics like the former champs that loss their belt after a long reign never or rarely win their belts back. Cruz is also 35 at bantamweight.

Francis Ngannu vs Jarsinu Rozenstruc

Having a insane  kickboxing record doesn't nessary mean u are a good striker in MMA and rembeber Rozenstuck took 5 round to KO Reem. Ngannu is a monster who will Ko him and if rozenstruc last it be a 29 28 decsion but it could be close

Calvin Kattar vs Jeremy Stephins

Calvin Kattar is 100% will win the decision as their a reason that Stephins has the most loss in the UFC with 16. But Stephins miss weight and i think this facter with him being on a 3 fight lossing strek wiil factor  to a huge lucky KO. Also Kattar will fight like a man and that make the fight closer

Greg Hardy vs Yorgan De Castro

Big fan of Yorgan, Saw him leg kicking some scrub on the conterder series and he made Justin Tafa look like a bum to increase the odds in Tafa vs Adam and im forever grateful for that. Greg Hardy look good fighing Volkov and i respect him as a fighter but also hate him as a wife beater, Yorgan De Castro got power also

Carla Expasa vs Michale Waterson

Carla is underated as i fighter and the only fight to beat her if the judge wern't dirty **** was Suarez and JJ as she beat Grasso,Janderoba, Calvilo and ross  and got robbeb fight Gadellia and Markos, I seen Waterson and was any of her win impresive in hindsight Casey, Ferring and Karilona and she got put in her place  fight JJ. Also Expassa is ugly while Waterson look like my favorite Philpino hooker. 

* Edited at 05.08.2020, 8:47 PM ET *

Holy **** this card is incredible