Topic: UFC 249

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje

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Tapology
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01.21.2020 | 10:37 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC 249
  • Saturday 05.09.2020 at 10:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ESPN
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: WME-IMG
  • Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
  • Location: Jacksonville, Florida, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Joe Rogan
  • PPV Buys / Buyrate: 700,000 | TV Ratings: 1.47M avg. viewers (ESPN prelims, 1.59M peak)
  • MMA Bouts: 11
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Justin Gaethje   defeats   Tony Ferguson   via KO/TKO, Punches   3:39 Round 5 of 5, 23:39 Total Bout Page
Henry Cejudo   defeats   Dominick Cruz   via KO/TKO, Knee and Punches   4:58 Round 2 of 5, 9:58 Total Bout Page
Francis NGannou   defeats   Jairzinho Rozenstruik   via KO/TKO, Punches   0:20 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Calvin Kattar   defeats   Jeremy Stephens   via KO/TKO, Elbows to Ground and Pound   2:42 Round 2 of 3, 7:42 Total Bout Page
Greg Hardy   defeats   Yorgan De Castro   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Anthony Pettis   defeats   Donald Cerrone   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Aleksei Oleinik   defeats   Fabrício Werdum   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Carla Esparza   defeats   Michelle Waterson-Gomez   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Vicente Luque   defeats   Niko Price   via KO/TKO, Doctor Stoppage (eye Injury)   3:37 Round 3 of 3, 13:37 Total Bout Page
Bryce Mitchell   defeats   Charles Rosa   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Ryan Spann   defeats   Sam Alvey   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 12

Hyrm
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04.27.2020 | 10:05 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 440 Points   |   Tied for 1334th

@bazik, hard to predic btw Rosa & Mitchell. I need to see more of both of them.

Bazik & Nicky You're right about Hardy-Volkov I forgot it was 3 round main even. Volkov destroy Werdum (former world champion) with strike. Not sure if I will go with Decastro dec or just with Decastro.

@imperator best fight because its garanteed violence? I think you forgot the main event & Kattar Stephens! But yeah Luque-Price is probably the fourth best fight, maybe third if N'gannou fight the way he fought Lewis.

"Never go down without a fight"

ImperatorFishrat
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04.27.2020 | 10:09 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 555 Points   |   Tied for 247th

Tony Ferguson   vs.   Justin Gaethje 


Gaethje, KO/TKO R2.


Basically, this fight will be decided by two things:


a) Who will have their way in the battle of pressure
b) Is Gaethje's power better than Tony's ability to recover from damage.


If we knew the answer to those two questions, predicting this fight wouldn't be difficult. We do not. Is Tony going to come forward like the Tasmanian devil, slinging all kinds of funky **** that cuts Gaethje to bits and sets up a stoppage by either sub or TKO mid/late fight, or is he going to try to do that, eat hellacious shots, get floored, and take his foot off the gas? 


Hard to say. The biggest puncher Tony has ever faced has been Pettis, and Pettis dropped him on his arse and very nearly finished him. Gaethje is much, much bigger threat as a puncher than Pettis. Not only is he much more likely to land, he's much more likely to end his opponent with one when he does.


Tony WILL eat something big in this fight. Definitely. And I don't know if he can come back from it when he does.There's a strong case to be made for him doing this, and a strong case for him just straight up getting bodied.


I believe that Gaethje is as dangerous or more dangerous an opponent for Tony as Khabib. This is just a very risky fight for him.


I'm going to take Justin to get it done, and I'm not going to be surprised if I'm wrong.

* Edited at 04.28.2020, 2:13 AM ET *

This user is suspended from posting until 8 years, 11 months, 2 weeks, 2 days, 21 hours, and 10 minutes from now.
Hyrm
Hyrm
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04.27.2020 | 10:19 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 440 Points   |   Tied for 1334th

About Werdum-Oleinik,

They both have good enought TDD to prevent being taken down.
Werdum was suspended the last 2 years and he is 42 so he probably not have a lot left in the gaz thank
Oleinik also 42 with is chin gone.


I think it will be a sloppy fight all on the feeet with a lot of pushing againts the fence.
I also think Werdum finish it lately.

"Never go down without a fight"

ImperatorFishrat
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04.28.2020 | 1:43 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 555 Points   |   Tied for 247th

Addendum: God doesn't want Ferguson vs Khabib to happen, so yeah, Gaethje by KO/TKO.
This user is suspended from posting until 8 years, 11 months, 2 weeks, 2 days, 21 hours, and 10 minutes from now.
Torontomma
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04.28.2020 | 2:33 AM ET

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points   |   Tied for 2958th

Those are the worste picks I've ever seen.
ImperatorFishrat
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04.28.2020 | 2:36 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 555 Points   |   Tied for 247th

The worst you've seen so far.
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void
void
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04.28.2020 | 4:12 AM ET

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points   |   Tied for 2958th

"This ain't no sport, do not call our....... sport, a sport" -Darren "The Elkins" Till

Hippie
Hippie

04.28.2020 | 10:24 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 550 Points   |   Tied for 301st





Tony_Nightmare
Tony_Nightmare
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04.28.2020 | 12:47 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 4 of 11 Winners, 0 Perfect, 215 Points   |   Tied for 3303rd

Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Tony Ferguson, SUB, R4
Gaethje starts strong but Tony comes back hard in the 3rd and dominates the 4th and gets the finish

mickey420
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04.28.2020 | 7:08 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 375 Points   |   Tied for 2189th

gaethje vs michael johnson honestly might be my all time favorite fight lol. always worth the rewatch
Aliko19087
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04.28.2020 | 7:58 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 4 of 6 Winners, 1 Perfect, 240 Points   |   Tied for 3229th

Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Justin Gaethje, TKO, R2
Justin by TKO💪🏻💪🏻

N'Gannou vs. Rozenstruik
Jairzinho Rozenstruik, TKO, R2
Well, Ngannou doesn't have the best cardio, I feel like if Ngannou doesn't find the finish in the first he'll gas out. I feel like Jairzinho will survive the early storm of Ngannou and put him away in the second.

Stephens vs. Kattar
Calvin Kattar, DEC
I got Kattar in this one, I feel like Kattar is too technical for Stephens. And Stephens is a tough mother.... I don't see Kattar putting Stephens away.

Hardy vs. De Castro
Yorgan De Castro, TKO, R1
Yorgan will put Hardy away in the first.

Sean Wick
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04.28.2020 | 8:15 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 415 Points   |   Tied for 1668th






freemoneyforall
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04.28.2020 | 9:59 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 440 Points   |   Tied for 1334th

@fish I feel like Gaethje is gonna catch him too. Can't bring myself to believe it though.
ImperatorFishrat
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04.28.2020 | 10:23 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 555 Points   |   Tied for 247th

Yeah man. Just going with my gut. I feel like he's become a bit more refined and demonstrated that in the Cowboy fight, seems to be making more intelligent shot selections. It's not a great development for Tony who at the end of all things is very hittable.

Tony might just bust him to bits, too. Not a bettable fight IMO.

* Edited at 04.28.2020, 10:25 PM ET *

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DamienHandel420
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04.29.2020 | 2:00 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points   |   Tied for 2300th

Anyone else think Stephens, Alvey and Cerrone are going to win on the basis of them being on 3 fight loss streak and being due wins or im i just retarted

* Edited at 04.29.2020, 2:06 AM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

bazik
bazik

04.29.2020 | 2:25 AM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 455 Points   |   Tied for 1176th

Cerrone seems to me to spit at his own expense. It is important for him to write a check
void
void
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04.29.2020 | 6:25 AM ET

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points   |   Tied for 2958th

@damien i use that logic sometimes too but in this specific case i have all 3 of them losing

"This ain't no sport, do not call our....... sport, a sport" -Darren "The Elkins" Till

stcv1995
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04.29.2020 | 7:05 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 505 Points   |   Tied for 600th

@damien @void That's not how math and probability work. If you are predicting let's say two future events, both 50-50, chance to let's say lose both is 25% but if you are making prediction for the second event again after losing the first the chance to also lose the second one is 50%, not 25% because you already lost the first one and it's no longer a future event. If anything it's a bit over 50% probability of losing the second event after losing the first if the first one told us something new and worse about a competitor than we initially thought.
stcv1995
stcv1995
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04.29.2020 | 7:07 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 505 Points   |   Tied for 600th

What I wrote in previous post is about independent events, only the last sentence is about dependent event which fights are (to some degree). Long story short, you should take their previous losses as a signal they are going to lose this one also and never the opposite.
void
void
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04.29.2020 | 4:00 PM ET

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points   |   Tied for 2958th

@stcv yeah I agree, I dissected each fight and decided that I think all 3 of them will lose independent of the fact that they're on losing streaks.

"This ain't no sport, do not call our....... sport, a sport" -Darren "The Elkins" Till

Page 12


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