UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs. Jacare

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Atta boy new Bruce way to get banned again. 

Who's "new bruce"????

Błachowicz vs. Souza
Jan Błachowicz, TKO, R3
I just think Jan is in peak form, which will pose a problem in itself to a down trending Jacare. I just don't know if moving to Light-Heavyweight is the right thing to do. And then you think about how Jan is faster, stronger, longer, has a 6" reach advantage. It's not the right opponent for Jacare. Think it's a bad matchup actually.

Rua vs. Craig
Maurício Rua, TKO, R2
******* BEARJEW BASTARD! Watch him get another finish 4:59 into whatever round. I wish to see Shogun smash him

Oliveira vs. Gordon
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R2
Whaaat the ****kk UFC! You guys are idiots for allowing this kind of matchmaking. 1st off. The UFC Lightweight Rankings are dumb as ****. Charles Oliveira is absolutely a top 10 guy. I'd say #9, right behind Kevin Lee. Give him overrated Al Iaquinta's #9 spot. He's definitely better than him. So anyways. Oliveira is a franchise fighter. I mean he made his debut all the way back in 2010 vs. Darren Elkins. And hasn't left the promotion since. He's rattled off 24 UFC fights. That's alotta fights. He's finished all 15 of his wins. In fact, win or lose, he's only went the distance once. I think vs Frankie Edgar. The kid is ALWAYS in these electrifying fights. I mean he's won 5 straight. 6 of 7 and ONLY losing to savage Paul Felder. C'mon. He should be facing another ranked guy.

Ramos vs. Garagorri
Ricardo Ramos, DEC
This fight has "Banger" written all over it. I expect fireworks for 10 mins max. And then a sloooow R3.

Barão vs. Andrade
Douglas Andrade, TKO, R2
Maaaan. Barão is the definition of a shot fighter at this point. And this is at 135lbs. You know he's gonna miss weight by like 5lbs. I don't think it's safe for him to fight anymore period, let alone kill himself trying to make weight only to fail and get KO'd anyways. I mean, he got smashed by Luke Sanders man.

Lipski vs. Macedo
Ariane Lipski, DEC
Whatta ya do when both chicks are kinda cute?

Oh yeah, duh. Best Picker is a ******* idiot. Kinda annoying. But more stupid. 

I really think Garagorri pulls off the upset here and stays undefeated. 

Cortez vs. Melo
Tracy Cortez, DEC
Cortez is a dimepiece. Hope she does well

Ramos vs. Garagorri
Ricardo Ramos, DEC
Draw

Appreciate that bold prediction @finchfree

Błachowicz vs. Souza
Jan Błachowicz, TKO, R3
It is always dangerous picking against a Brazilian in Brazil but that is what I will be doing here. Since I think Jan can get the KO so it will take the judges out of the equation. This matchup very well could propel Jan to a title fight and he needs a finish to make his case stronger. I don't see Souza being able to get this into his wheelhouse to use his BJJ Jan is a very solid grappler and has very good takedown defense. So he should be able to use his reach advantage to land enough to get the stoppage. I will say in the 3rd possibly the 2nd either way he gets the W in enemy territory.

Błachowicz vs. Souza
Jan Błachowicz, DEC
patience and size.

Rua vs. Craig
Maurício Rua, DEC
idk if shogun has fallen this far.

Oliveira vs. Gordon
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R1
gordon is good, but his chin is questionable and charles is always going for the kill.

Arroyo vs. Muniz
Antônio Arroyo, TKO, R2
coin flip.

Perez vs. Turman
Wellington Turman, DEC
better hair.

Moraes vs. Krause
James Krause, DEC
krause can stay technical.

Ramos vs. Garagorri
Ricardo Ramos, DEC
not sold on garagorri yet.

Trinaldo vs. Green
Francisco Trinaldo, DEC
bobby might not respect trinaldo's striking and it'll set up takedowns.

Alves vs. Brown
Warlley Alves, DEC
warlley has more options i believe.

Barão vs. Andrade
Douglas Andrade, DEC
barao is gonna look reborn for 5 minutes before he gets clipped/tired and he gives away the rest of the fight.

Lipski vs. Macedo
Ariane Lipski, DEC
slightly more faith.

Cortez vs. Melo
Vanessa Melo, DEC
more experienced competition i guess.

Oliveira vs. Gordon
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R2
Gordon is out gunned in this fight. He likes to strike his way into grappling exchanges which is not going to work with Oliveira. Gordon is at a reach disadvantage as well. I see this fight playing out with Oliveira getting yet another submission and just adding to his UFC record. This matchup is tailor made for the hometown fighter to look good as Gordon's style plays into Oliveira's strengths. I give it until round 2 as Gordon is not a total can, but it very well could be over in the 1st. I will be parlaying Oliveira to Jan for this card. With possibly a small hedge on Souza just to buy a little back. But feel good about those 2 picks getting home for the cash.

Lipski has a new opponent  Isabella de Padua who missed weight by 5lbs

??

just googled it and saw. thanks for the update 

Need these Padua odds to drop. 

1. Cortez by Decision: Last 2 wins were by Decision and 5/6 of her wins were by Decision.

2. Lipski by Decision: New opponent

3. Andrade by 2nd Round KO/Decision: Won 3 of his last 8 fights by KO. Won 5 of his last 8 fights by KO or Decision. Barao's last fight was a loss that came by a 2nd Round KO and he lost 4/5 fights before that by Decision. 

4. Alves by 2nd Round KO/Decision: Knocked out Sergio Moraes this year, a man who has only lost 5 times and only twice by KO. However, 5 of Alves' fights did go to Decision. 2/3 of Brown's losses were in the 2nd round.

5. Trinaldo by Decision: Won 7/11 of his fights in the UFC that went to Decision. 

6. Ramos by Decision: Won 3 of his last 5 fights by Decision.

7. Krause by 2nd Round KO: Knocked out Warlley Alves last year, a man who has only lost 3 times and only once by KO. Warlley Alves also holds a KO victory over Moraes this year.

8. Perez by Decision: 4 of his last 7 fights went to a Decision (5 of his last 8 if you count the Exhibition Bout).

9. Muniz by 1st Round Submission/Decision: Won 7 fights by 1st Round Submission. Won 9 fights in the 1st Round. Won 10 fights by Submission. However, he has never fought in the UFC. This fight is a coin toss.  

10. Oliveira by 2nd Round Submission: Won 4 of last 5 fights by Submission, 2 of them being in the 2nd round. Won 3 of last 5 fights in the 2nd round.

11. Rua by 3rd Round KO: Won 2 of his last 3 fights by 3rd Round KO.

12. Blachowicz by 2nd Round KO/Decision: Won 5 of his last 6 fights by either 2nd Round KO or Decision.