UFC on ESPN+ 16: Cowboy vs. Gaethje

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Nobody picks like the ********* bragging about picking with a 0% picking rate.... 

Cerrone vs. Gaethje
Justin Gaethje, TKO, R2
God Damn this is a good fight. Gaethje is getting Cerone at a good time. I thought Cerrone would have a tough time cuuting down to 155 again so soon when fighting Iaquinta. Then he proceeded to put on a clinic and win easily. Since then he was in a brutal fight with Ferguson and now steps in to have his 6th fight in 15 months. Crazy and props to Cerrone, but he will not win this fight. Gaethje will get the KO and put himself in the discussion to fight the winner of Khabib/Ferguson. God Damnit UFC make that Khabib/Ferguson fight. I think this fight will make the over 1.5 rounds but not by much. Also the Gaethje by KO prop is bet to make as well.

Teixeira vs. Krylov
Glover Teixeira, SUB, R2
Glover has a clear line of fighters he loses to and fighters he beats. Krylov falls into the side of fighters Glover beats. Unless at age 39 Glover takes a steep dive from what we have seen of late which has looked pretty darn good he gets the win here. Krylov was in deep trouble in his last fight vs. OSP and get to the point where OSP gassed and pulled out the win. That won't happen here. The exact opposite. Krylov better get something early of Glover's fight IQ will put it to an end. I see Glover making it through any early trouble and getting his hand raised very similar to his last fight vs. Cutelaba.

Cirkunov vs. Crute
Jimmy Crute, TKO, R1
Cirkunov's chin is shot. Only path to victory for him is to get the fight to the ground which I don't think he can. If Crute can KO Alvey he sure as hell can KO Cirkunov. This is light heavyweight and things do happen but I will take the younger up and coming fighter in this one over the talented but suspect chin vet. This seems like the type of fight the UFC wants to have to propel Crute in a 205 group that needs fresh blood in the ranks. Crute passes the test and gets round 1 KO.

Greetings and Salutations fellow Tapologist,


Providing DraftKings MMA insight for UFC Vancouver.


We're on a nice two event streak of Underdog Locks thanks to Da Un Sung & Sarah Moras delivering the Pain!


My Underdog Lock of this card is Augusto Sakai!

* Edited at 09.13.2019, 12:18 AM ET *

Make dat money is a fellow tapologist like myself so he advice must be good

BARBOZA WON THAT **** BRO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Maybe you should stick to watching Home and Away instead of MMA bro!!!!
Back to putting shrimps on the barbie with you, Ya flaming gallah!

whoever you thought won it looks like Barboza is adamant on the rubber match and Felder said hes down only if its a 5rounder main event and hell thatd be awesome... probably not as soon as Barboza would like but maybe late 2020 early 2021 and they can settle the score once and for all

I know it was a razor close fight. I'm just ******* with the Fishrat!!!  I think, as per usual, whoever you backed effects how you seen that decision. If you backed Felder it was a fair decision, if you backed Barboza he WUZ ROBBED!!!!!
Anyway, no doubt there's gonna be another split decision on this card for folk to get mad about!!! My guess is it's Sakai v Tybura or Skelly v Griffin.  There'll be 1 anyway, there's always 1!!!

Thanks fish. I try to be objective but I’m sure we’re all biased at times. I thought Felder earned the dec as well and the commentary was off. I thought the first could go either way but can see Barboza taking it. Comp strike can be misleading IMO.  The second round and definitely the third I saw Felder stalk Barboza down and Barboza try to land some nice kicks and shots but mostly backing away from Felder who, IMO, seemed to be hurting Barboza more with every shot. Even though he landed that TD, I thought Barboza used it defensively to avoid the striking. That’s fine, smart even, expect the fact that he landed nothing significant from top while fending off Felder’s offense, eating some huge elbows. Paul won that round for me. Also, I thought it looked like Felder would finish him if there was a 4 & 5 round. 

That said, if Barboza got the dec, I’d understand it, though would disagree. I was surprised the media mostly thought Barboza won. Just like everyone else, sometimes I agree with them, sometimes they too leave me smh. 

If that was Pride or a street fight, which it wasn’t, I know, I think Paul would’ve been an obvious winner. 10 or system sucks is the true moral of the story time and time again. 

@DamienHandel420 but Unlike you he’s yet to predict anybfights so I won’t listen to shut he posts. 

* Edited at 09.13.2019, 10:04 AM ET *

Cerrone vs. Gaethje

Cowboy seems to struggle the most in fights where he is made to fight at his opponents pace. Justin rarely takes a step backwards so this is theory is a nightmare match-up for Cowboy. That plus at now 36 and coming off a huge loss in terms of his path to the title how much does Cerrone have left. 

Result: Justin Gaethje KO/TKO RD 1




Duffe vs. Hughes 
If this goes past the first round then im about 90% certain Hughes takes this one. Duffee has been out of the game for over 4 years! All of his wins are by KO/TKO only one even making it in to the second round. Now I can't imagine Duffee having used this time to become more of a complete fighter. Hughes will have a hell of a storm to survive in that first round but if he does then he takes this one. 

Result: Jeff Hughes KO/TKO RD 3




Teixeira vs. Krylov
This is Krylov's fight to lose. Glover was arguably past his prime when he first arrived in the UFC back in 2012 now there really isn't any debate if he is. A pair of wins so far for the Brazilian in 2019 make this look a much closer fight that I expect it to be. As long as Krylov has addressed his BJJ defence then I think he gets it done in a fight that isn't pretty. 

Result: Nikita Krylov KO/TKO RD 3



Crute vs. Cirkunov
Of all the fights on the main card this is possibly the one I am least sure of. Misha is no punk despite losing 3 of his last 4, those losses have been to better guys than Crute has ever been up against. Crute is also only 23 and only been training full time for less than a year that's a big experience advantage for Cirkunov. I still fancy Crute to get it done but I wouldn't be surprised if this is the fight that messes up the most bets for the evening. 

Result: Jimmy Crute Decision




Hall vs. Shoeface
The classic striker vs. grappler match-up, this one also has be slightly on the fence because Hall clearly has fought the better level of competition winning and losing. However he is also famously inconsistent posting a 7-7 run in the UFC. A rather big warning sign is that Shoeface has previously been finished with strikes by Dan Kelly who doesn't have anywhere near the same power that Hall does. Hall has never been submitted but a similar styled opponent in Natal did grind out a decision against him and with Shoeface originally starting at Heavyweight he will likely have the strength to get him down.


Result: Shoeface Decision 




Tybura vs. Sakai
A big one for the tale end of the Heavyweight top 15. Tybura has definitely faced the better competition but he's lost to pretty much all of them. Sakai only has one fight in the UFC a rather contentious split-decision win over Arlovski. Now if it hadn't been for Tybura's last loss I probably would have picked him as he's faced the likes of Werdum and Lewis who I wouldn't expect him to beat but the last loss to Shamil makes me think we've already seen the best of him and their may be more to come from Sakai. 


Result: Augusto Sakai Decision

* Edited at 09.13.2019, 11:48 AM ET *

Michel Pereira (172 * misses weight, forfeits 20 percent of purse) vs. Tristan Connelly (169.5)

2nd time he missed weight, did the same in his debut with Roberts at 172

Get ya **** together brother!  Should be 80 percent 2nd time around..

@swain I’m being sarcastic making fun of him thinking he a fellow tapologost as he problem only goes on it one a week

Can't shake the feeling that cowboy can win here even though I think Justin will run him over in about 3 mins.