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Fantasy bot literally won ACA 92.
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02.19.2019 | 2:12 AM ET
So basically a simplistic line of code that essentially flips a coin on every fight beat every single human brain on Tapology.
https://www.tapology.com/profiles/fantasybot
* Edited at 02.19.2019, 2:13 AM ET *
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Responses
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- MassaBruce
02.19.2019 | 2:50 AM ET
Fantasy bot has won over 100 events but yea, pretty crazy. and sad.
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02.19.2019 | 3:35 AM ET
What? 100 ******* events!?
Jesus. I've been doing this all wrong...
Jesus. I've been doing this all wrong...
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02.20.2019 | 4:05 PM ET
49.7% pick percentage proves that MMA fights truly are a coin flip.
"Tom Breese Future Champ"
02.20.2019 | 8:39 PM ET
Well, umm it doesn't really matter WHAT the fantasy bot is picking. NFL games, NBA games, tennis matches, actual flips of coins, etc. Anything where it has to randomly pick between two choices it would be the same result. As the number of picks made increased, it's percentage will get closer and closer to 50%.
Right now it's at 49.7% with 28,000 picks made. The higher that pick number goes, the closer it will hone in on exactly 50.00%. It's just statistics. The whole point and design of the Fantasy Bot is to be picking fights at 50%.
"I live, I die, I live again."
02.20.2019 | 8:53 PM ET
As for MMA fights being as predictable as a coin flip, that's not true.
@cheese you've made 15,000 picks and you're at 63.9%. Much better than random coin flips like the Fantasy Bot is forced to do.
@free you've made 1,500 picks and your at 61.1%. Also much better than random.
I'm at 5,800 picks and I'm at 63.6%.
@fish has made 3,500 picks and is at 63.2%.
@massa has made 16,400 and is at 65.5%.
None of this is surprising! We have plenty of data. If you allow a typical MMA fan evaluate a typical MMA fight and make a pick, they have about a 60% chance of being correct. Doesn't sound great, but it's a lot higher than 50%.
All time on Tapology:
- 6,886,966 correct picks (60.4%)
- 4,515,518 incorrect picks (39.6%)
* Edited at 02.20.2019, 8:54 PM ET *
"I live, I die, I live again."
02.20.2019 | 9:14 PM ET
@Greg that's interesting. Obviously as a result of the pure arithmetic the % accuracy will increase as the number of fights picked increases, but I'd love to know the probability of coin tossing algorithm resulting in an event win compared to a savvy fight picker, especially when you start adding variables to the data set. It would be pretty nuts.
Can it pick draws or is it just win/loss on each given fight or event?Fantasy fight picking is going to be one of those things that AI starts kicking our assess at really soon. One of many things.
Can it pick draws or is it just win/loss on each given fight or event?Fantasy fight picking is going to be one of those things that AI starts kicking our assess at really soon. One of many things.
* Edited at 02.20.2019, 9:20 PM ET *
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02.20.2019 | 9:42 PM ET
@fish it can't pick draws. It has to play by the same rules as you and me (we can't pick draws). It randomly picks either fighter A or fighter B. And then it randomly picks TKO/DEC/SUB. And then if it picked TKO/SUB it randomly picks a round number. It's totally random, not intended to be intelligent whatsoever.
It was actually created for fantasy games as a backup. The "head to head" game mode requires an even number of teams. If you have 13 people join a league, but it needs to be an even number of teams, what do you do? Cancel the whole game? That would suck. So instead as a backup, we made the Fantasy Bot. It just becomes a "dumb" player in a fantasy game if you end up with an odd number of teams in head to head mode.
As for your question about the likelihood of the Fantasy Bot beating a savvy fight picker:
- The less bouts there are on the event, the better statistical chance the Fantasy Bot has at winning. For example if there was only 1 fight on the card, it wouldn't be that unusual. The average person gets a fight wrong 40% of the time. And so if the Fantasy Bot happens to get that fight correct (50% chance), it would beat you. So the odds of that are 40% x 50% = 20% chance losing to the Fantasy Bot in a single-fight card. But with each additional fight you add to the card, the Fantasy Bot's chances drop faster and faster.
- An event with a lot of upsets is where you're likely to see the Fantasy Bot do well. Most humans pick the favorites, but the Fantasy Bot doesn't care either way.
"I live, I die, I live again."
02.20.2019 | 10:44 PM ET
Yeah that's pretty cool. U should have those all time tapology stats for people to c easily.
Fantasy bot too. Even oddsbot should comeback. All interesting stats to know.
Fantasy bot too. Even oddsbot should comeback. All interesting stats to know.