UFC on ESPN+ 8: Jacare vs. Hermansson

Rory should win pretty comfortably really. Granted Fitch decisioned Daley but that was a great matchup for him stylistically. He's really old, Rory has very good grappling, much better striking and is massively younger. He's also never been subbed, and that is Fitch's only path to victory. He won't be able to wear out Rory, rory's grappling is too good.Yes, rory lost to Moose, but Moose is a ******* beast and one of the best MW's in the world. He's also fought at LHW and beat Mark Hunt in his prime.

I give Fitch about a 3/10 chance of winning that fight. The bookies are right having him as a huge Dog.

* Edited at 04.25.2019, 4:28 PM ET *

Yeah man, don't overthink it. It would be a pretty big upset if Fitch pulled a rabbit of of his ass, but by every criteria you can judge a fight on, that shouldn't happen. Fortune is a ***** with a bad sense of humor though, but all the same...Rory Mac all day long.

Lineker vs Sandhagen

Sandhagen, TKO R3.
Confidence: moderate

I'm on the Sandhagen boat. Now, this is a huge test for him, but I believe he will pass it with flying colours. He has very awkward movement ( similar to Cruz) that I expect will give John fits, surprisingly good power, excellent grit and endurance, and an 8 inch reach advantage. I believe he consistently outlands lineker and isn't there for the counters, ultimately stopping him in the last round when John is emptied from throwing everything into his shots for no result. Upset! This will be FOTN.

Burns vs Davis


Davis, KO/TKO R2.
confidence: moderate


I don't think Burns is as good as everyone thinks he is. He did beat Mercier, but that doesn't mean that much. He's right to be the favorite here as Davis' TD and sub defense hasn't been tested by a good grappler, but that said Davis shouldn't be as much of a dog as he is. Davis has excellent--I repeat--excellent hands, far, far better than Burns'. He's also faster and at least as powerful. If he can stay on his feet, he wins this fight--easily. That's a big if, but also don't be surprised if he blasts burns into orbit the first  round either.

Texiera vs Cutelaba.


Cutelaba, TKO R2.
confidence: High


Look , Glover is awesome and HOF'er, but I think Cutelaba is just too much for him at this stage of his career. He pulled off the sub after nearly getting finished in the first in his last outing, but Cutelaba is a different deal. I don't think he has the endurance to hit a sub against the hulk if it goes past the first, and Ion will be putting it hard and heavy on him from the bell. That said, you can never count Texiera out. This fight is closer than people think, and he does have a really good chance of getting the sub in 1. If he doesn't though, he's boned. Gotta take the young wolf over the old lion here. I'll be rooting for Texiera though, as always...I'd root for him over my mother.


Perry vs Alex Cowboy


Perry, KO/TKO R2.
confidence: low


Very hard fight to pick. Oliveira should rightly be the favorite here, but the caveat for me is that this has to be contingent upon his willingness to use his grappling. If he tries to go toe to toe with Perry he is gonna get his plug pulled, and you can take that to the bank. Perry is as dumb as a sack of ****s, but he makes that up in huge ass power and toughness. I'm taking him here. I think Cowboy does get the better of him for a while, then gets reckless, thinking he has his number, and ends up eating something huge that sends him crumpling to the canvas like an ice cream cone in summer.

Arlovski vs Sakai

Arlovski, decision.
confidence: low

Another tough one to pick. This one comes down to whether or not Arlovski turns up or not. If we get the pitbull that fought baby albini, he will win a decision. Sakai is not a good fighter. Like, at all. He lacks both technicality and power. I'll take Arlovski.

Jacare vs Hermansson.

Hermansson, TKO R4.
confidence: moderate


I'm going to take Jack for the upset here. I just see something in him, and despite the fact that he's really not better than Jacare anywhere, sometimes belief and hunger can overcome skill gaps. I think he uses his insane confidence to either just straight up blast jacare early, or takes him to deep waters and drowns him. I think he wants it more, and Jacare is at the point where he's just going to start turning up and doing enough to win. I think the Gastelum decision broke his heart, and perhaps rightly so, because I believe he won.

* Edited at 04.25.2019, 11:09 PM ET *