UFC on ESPN+ 4: Lewis vs. Dos Santos

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Reminds of the Volkov odds. Don't sleep on black beast lol. Lewis by ko

Vokov school Lewis 14:45. Lewis always have a puncher chance but thats not gonna work in all fight!

The only thing Lewis has is his power. He can put your lights out with one punch but he has to land that punch. He has to land that punch without getting lit up by JDS who has a lot a stopping power as well and far more skill. 

I think this fight will be mostly standup, and Junior Dos Santos is the far superior striker.

This is probably gonna be my first ever live UFC event. 

Gotta take junior. Way more all around skill. 
Those over hand rights from the black beast are worrisome though

Fish, I hope you're right but I'm afraid freemoney is

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huuuuge Kelvin fan but even I have to give the edge to Whittaker. I just don't think it's in any way a landslide. I'd put Kelvin's chances at 43 or 44% with his best chance being a quick opportunistic RNC off of a quick level change and scramble or a knockdown but Whittaker's run over the last few years has been one of if not THE most impressive of any of the champions.

Oops. had 2 threads open

Hahaha all good it happens. At least u noticed after one post instead of seven like me.

Hard to predict.  Jds chin bb power. Prob just needs one. Id stay away from predicting at 2 to 1 

If Lewis plows forward, even bum-rushing him Rousey-style, he could put JDS on the fence and do away with him there.  Or this fight might go like Mark Hunt's fight with Lewis, if JDS can mind his ps and qs.

Lewis vs. dos Santos
Junior dos Santos, DEC
This is like the ultimate clash of two guys that you're never sure which version of them you're gonna get.. JDS clearly has more paths to victory... but that one thing Lewis is goood at, he's reallyyyy goood at. Knocking ppl out cold. But I really dnt knoooow what to do here

Zaleski vs. Millender
Curtis Millender, DEC
The fight matchup gods have given us what we've been begging and drooling for! annnd they're giving it to us in the best way possible. What a fight! I see nooo way this fight could possibly suck. these two guys are two of the most dangerous, explosive and powerful Welterweight's on the roster.. This fight alone, is worth the annoyance of watching fights on your cell phone.

Price vs. Means
Niko Price, DEC
Wow! I gotta say. I'm a little surprised here. More ppl taking "The Dirty Bird" but it's close. The BIGGER surprise to me, is Means as a -210 favorite

Rothwell vs. Ivanov
Blagoy Ivanov, DEC
It's really nice to see Big Ben Rothwell back in.. It's been far tooo looong away. I honestly forgot about him. But that's not hard to do when you've got swiss cheese for brain matter...

Dariush vs. Dober
Drew Dober, DEC
Boy Benny Dariush has had a rough go of things lately. he Badly needs this win. And Drew Dober is a goood scrap. I actually like this fight a little more than I originally did after I've thought about it more.. And it should be a fun one to watch and see how it plays out

Akhmedov vs. Boetsch
Tim Boetsch, TKO, R1
Gotta rep my Pennsylvania guys.. Even tho he's a transplant.

Kunitskaya vs. Reneau
Yana Kunitskaya, DEC
Is it me, or does this card seem like there's an overload of fights that potentially end by decision? Like more than usual? Either way, this fight is some fun matchmaking..

Greene vs. Hughes
Jeff Hughes, TKO, R1
The Crochet Boss is one of the more memorable characters from TUF series.. And it's funny how things work. Both of these guys fought in the LFA at the same time frame, they both make their ways to the big show, only to have their roads finally cross.. It's an interesting matchup. Annnd I'm sure, not gonna name any names, is saying Shaun Shelby needs to be shot to put an end to the prospect vs prospect fights. LOL

White vs. Moret
Alex White, DEC
Alex White. I always liked this kid. He's just never really been able to really get going. He's got potential, he's real fan friendly style. And this is a good fight for him I think, to hopefully show me something goood

Hughes already faced Greene in LFA and beat him. 

I coulda swore they fought each other already.. Only reason I thought I was wrong was Tapology is usually on point with tellin you it's a rematch, but I dnt remember seeing it

Here are my predictions:

- Junior Dos Santos win via tko in rd 4 or 5. Derrick has not looked good in his last 4 fights. It's beginning to be pretty apparent that Derrick has trouble mustering the power to get the 1 punch KO & his body can't handle it anymore. Bad back & stomach issues. The superior striker (boxer) is JDS by a lot. I expect JDS to outjab Derrick like the way he did to Shane Carwin years ago. I see JDS utilizing 3 things during the fight: jabs, body shots, and footwork to evade Derrick every time he lunges in to attack. I can see Derrick landing a few shots on JDS but for the most part unable to land the big KO punch. Derrick is eventually going to tire out by rd 3 and JDS will probably get the tko victory in the championship rounds. Most likely the tko will be body shots + a tired Derrick Lewis = referee stops the fight... similar to what happened in his loss against Mark Hunt. Lewis' chin is more likely to survive the shots than his stomach. Derrick Lewis is probably still going to be standing as the ref stops the fight so he's still conscious. Confidence: 75-85% <-- would be 90% but Derrick has that 1 punch KO power and has a better chin than JDS but his body (stomach area) is suspect.


 - Elizeu Zaleski win via decision or submission over 2.5 rounds. I'm leaning on decision. Both men utilize a lot of kicks. Curtis is taller by like 3 inches with a 5 or 6 inch reach advantage. Can't really see either guys KO'ing the other with kicks/knees. Both have good chin. Elizeu has only 1 career win by submission but I can see him taking down Curtis and attempt to submit him. Confidence: 50-50% 


- Niko Price win via KO in rd 1. Confidence: 90% 


- Blagoy Ivanov win via decision. Blagoy outbox and takes down Ben Rothwell. Confidence: 75% Mainly because Ben hasnt fought in 3 years and will most likely have ring rust & endurance isn't as good as Blagoy's. 


- Drew Dober win via KO punch in rd 2. UPSET. Confidence: 40-50% Beneil is the superior grappler (jiu-jitsu) but Drew is good at scrambling, decent in defending takedowns, the harder puncher, and imo has the better chin as of 2019. The striking is going to be the deciding factor of this fight, not the grappling (jiu-jitsu). 


- Tim Boetsch win via KO in rd 3 or late rd 2. UPSET. I see Tim losing rd 1 and 2 but then in rd 3 have a come behind victory. Superior striker - slight edge for Omari. Superior grappler - Tim mainly because he has the better cardio. Confidence: 25%


 - Anthony Rocco Martin win via decision. Anthony keeps the fight standing. Outboxes Sergio Moraes and defends against the takedown attempts from clinch position. Doubt Anthony can KO him. Confidence: 60-70% <-- really depends on how good his takedown defense is. 


- Yana Kunitskaya win via decision. Stylistically, this is a bad matchup for Yana because her weakness is grappling... specifically wrestling. However, Marion is old (41) and at a size disadvantage (5'8 vs 5'6). Marion is known more for her submission threat than wrestling. Yana is younger and bigger, will be able to defend the takedowns. Between the two, Yana has more fight in her as of 2019. Confidence: 50-60% 


- Grant Dawson win via submission in rd 1 OR Julian Erosa win via KO over 2.5 rounds. I'm going with Julian Erosa by KO. UPSET. Why? Grant has the better mma record but Erosa has fought tougher opponents & is the more experienced fighter. Julian is reckless, moves forward, brawls, and is open to being taken down. However, he's decent in scrambling back up, never been submitted, he's bigger (6 ft vs 5'10 or 5'9), fought tougher opposition, more experienced, and is the superior striker. All fights start on the feet. Julian is more confident striking than Grant. Grant is more confident grappling. Grant will most likely take Julian down after absorbing flurry of shots from Julian. Can't see Grant being able to hold him down. Julian will most likely scramble back up. Confidence: 25% <-- Julian only loses to ufc-caliber fighters like Artem Lobov, Paddy Pimblett, Teruto Ishihara, Devonte Smith. Don't know how good or not Grant Dawson is. His jiu-jitsu is ufc caliber BUT his striking isn't. Fight IQ not sure. 


- Jeff Hughes win via submission (rear naked choke). They fought before in another promotion for 5 full rounds so 3 rounds shouldn't be a problem for these heavyweights. Wasn't pretty. Both guys endurance barely made it. Could've gone either way. Jeff is most likely going to try to wrestle Maurice Greene and submit him than to stand and strike with him since he wasnt able to KO him in 5 rounds. Confidence: 25-40% Greene is the bigger heavyweight 6'7 vs 6'2 or 6'1 & 82 inch reach vs 76 inch reach


 - Louis Smolka win via decision or submission. Schnell - slighter superior striker but Louis has a good chin never been ko'ed although he's been rocked a lot of times before. Smolkha = superior grappler. If Schnell can keep this fight purely standing he should outpoint Smolkha. However, in all of Smolkha's fights (win or lose) there is grappling involved & Schnell has been taken down at least once in all his fights. Confidence: 0% not confident on either guys due to their history of losses and poor performance.


 - Zak Ottow win via split decision. Boring fight. Zak is the wrestler & mediocre striker. Zak's wrestling is more of a lay and prey style... not known for ground & pound. Alex is more confident striking but isn't known for KO power or aggressiveness. Alex Morono struggles against wrestlers. He can be taken down and is unable to get back up or believes his submission game off his back is good enough but in reality in all his ufc fights he hasn't shown he can submit opponents off his back. How I see the fight going down: zak takes alex every round but does close to nothing. Would not be surprise if Alex is more active on the bottom going for submission attempts but fail. The referee will most likely stand them back up but that won't stop Zak from taking him down repeatedly. Boring fight. Not sure how the judges will score it... i'm going to assume judges see top control & wrestler = win the rounds Confidence: 25% -


 Dan Moret vs Alex White.. no idea. Both guys are strikers, move forward, brawl, and so this fight has a high likelihood of ending by tko under 2.5 rounds. Confidence: 0% not confident on either guys due to their history of losses.

* Edited at 03.07.2019, 12:34 AM ET *

Zaleski vs. Millender
Curtis Millender, TKO, R1
Won’t go the distance