Khabib vs Mcgregor; Final thoughts, and why I think Khabib is going to win.

Everybody keeps talking about how **** khabib's striking is, but so what?


The Johnson fight


I just rewatched the Johnson fight. Kahbib won that easily and despite Rogan's ****** commentary, the punch that caught khabib realy didn't do anything to him. And that was a big punch. It was the exactly the same punch that he iced poirier with. I think khabib has a chin on him.

He also had only had one fight in two years leading up to that bout. He was able to take down Johnson, control him  and sink in a Kimura with relative ease on a guy who has a 78% TDD rate. Conor's is 74%. And he hasn't had to deal with guys like Elkins. He was also subbed by Diaz who's jujitsu is highly overrated.

Is conor a better striker than Johnson? Yes. Does he have better sprawls and general TDD? No. Does he punch harder? Probably. But I don't think the difference is great.I also think Johnson has better hand speed, especially in the first round. Something Johnson doesn't do is stick his lead leg out halfway across the octagon; he's fast, throws very fast combinations and is in and out in pretty tight bunches. As yet, nobody has attacked Conor's lead, but I feel that Khabib will get a single on the basis of this. It's probably inevitable.

Nurmagomedov has poor striking offense and criminally underrated striking defense.


Khabib's striking accuracy is 48%. His striking defense is 70%. That's actually insanely high, among the highest in MMA actually. He has never been finished by strikes, and has never looked like being finished by strikes. The chance of Conor finishing him with one punch is exceedingly low. Mcgregor has in fact only ever finished one fighter with a single punch, Jose aldo--this was at FW, and Conor is a lightweight. Jose aldo had also been in many wars, and his chin wasn't what is was in WEC.

If Conor does floor nurmagomedov, he is going to have to let him back up. There will be no pouncing and hammerfisting....that would be suicide.

Mcgregor does his best work off the back foot.  He's undoubtedly the best back-foot counterer in the UFC, probably in MMA. It's masterful to behold. However, it will be hard to groove into this against khabib, because mcgregor throws straight in off the center line once he has baited his opponent moving forward, and khabib doesn't stick around in space, and has awkward movement. He takes a lot of shots on the body and arms, but he actually doesn't get hit in the face very often at all. mcgregor isn't going to want to move backwards, because this puts him at risk of getting backed into the fence, which is the worst place to be against khabib.

The Mendes fight


Chad was able to control Mcgregor reasonably well until gassing. However, I do feel that Conor is responsible for said gassing, having landed some really winding Teep and other kick attacks perfectly. Would chad have performed better with a full camp/ Probably. Would have it made the difference? Maybe, but it's no sure thing. Conor was able to win because, again, he had an enormous reach and size advantage. Size matters; even a great wrestler will struggle to keep a bigger, highly athletic man pinned.

In any case, the fact that Mendes got so much top time doesn't bode well for Conor. If khabib does end up on top at any stage, he is staying there for the whole round. Not Barboza, not RDA, not Iaquinta, not Johnson, nobody has been able to escape nurmagomedov on the ground if he wants to keep them there. If Conor gets his back taken in the first round, he will either get subbed, or be utterly exhausted after said round. Khabib is a wet blanket. Conor will have never faced anything even close to it. Mendes will feel like a toddler, comparatively.

Khabib, unlike Mendes, will never, ever stop fishing for the TD. At no point will Mcgregor be able to stop worrying about that coming any second.

Conor Mcgregor gains a huge advantage through psychological warfare


There's no denying it; Mcgregor has a huge amount of very vocal fans, and he's very good at mind******* his enemies. Aldo lost the mental warfare game, and Alvarez got absolutely demolished by it. Alvarez was beaten before he stepped into the cage. Anyone who has seen Tyson vs Spinks will know what I'm talking about.

As of today, I've seen nothing to indicate Khabib isn't in a very good place mentally. There hasn't been a big presser full of mcgregor fans to hoot and jeer at him, and in the one presser we have had, conor seemed erratic and emotional, and most people agree Khabib came out on top.

Mcgregor will not have the mental advantage coming in to this fight, and that's kind of a big deal.

Think about; every fight he has won via an absolute merking has been on the back of a mental victory prior. Aldo, Alvarez, even Mendes. The fights he has struggled with--eg Diaz and Holloway, have been mentally immune, and have been his toughest wars.



Cardio, conditioning, and spirit.


I think Mcgregor's cardio issues have been largely overstated. His conditioning is very good. at least, it is in striking contests. The conditioning required for defensive grappling is however not the same. Striking power doesn't just come from the arms, shoulders and back, it comes from the legs and hips too. Let's say if khabib doesn't hit a TDD in the first, but snatches conor in a single or takes his waist against the fence. He's going to burn out his lower just defending the TDD, which he will do anything to avoid. After a few minutes of that he will have enough lactic acid in his muscles to melt metal.

If Conor's legs and hips are shot, he loses power, and the ability to move and cut angles in time to avoid the TD.

Khabib basically tires very little, even when he has to work his ass off from top control, as we have seen in the Barboza fight. He handled that very well, and Barboza is much more dangerous on the ground than Mcgregor is, or probably ever will be.

Khabib will be the bigger man


Again, size matters. Khabib cuts god knows what to hit 155 and could easily fight at WW. Conor is a natural lightweight. It's his optimal class. How much will this negate his KO power? It's not possible to say, but it will definitely not be easier to KO a big LW as opposed to a FW. Diaz was bigger than Mcgregor, and the clinching in that fight wore on him hard.

Prediction;

Khabib Nurmagomedov by either submission or TKO within 4 rounds. It's much easier  to not get KTFO than it is to survive a phenomenal grappler/wreslter with insane cardio who is bigger, and harder to finish than anyone you have ever fought. Especially when said wrestler/grappler is bolstered by unshakeable self-belief and faith.

If Khabib wins this fight, we need to start talking about him being the best lightweight of all time. Ditto Mcgregor.

* Edited at 10.02.2018, 8:03 PM ET *

Actually Conor stopped Siver, Mendes, Aldo & Eddie with 1 shot. 

Seems like I read this exact same nonsense before the Alvarez fight lmfao. Oh wait I did. 

I also read it before the 2nd Nate fight and before the Mendes fight and before the Aldo fight  haahahahahah 

You guys are 1-12 picking Conors fights. Nit-pick anything you could possibly find to discredit the most accomplished fighter alive. I LOVE how people lie and try to say Aldo's chin wasn't 100% before Conor cold-clocked em ahahahahaahah good one. 

Khabib is the best fighter Conor has ever faced and that won't matter a fookin bit. Conor via KO whenever he wants.

Bruce, why so salty? And how do you know who I have or haven't picked Mcgregor to beat? The only time I've ever picked against him is the first Diaz and second Diaz fights. I knew he'd mollywop Alvarez, was confident he'd catch Aldo, and Dennis siver...well Dennis siver is dennis siver so that was a bit of a given, I take no pride in in picking him in that one. Mendes I ventured no opinion, but leaned towards chad. So I suppose I picked against him in that one, technically. My head didn't explode when he got the finish though. It never does nor will when a bigger guy beats a smaller guy.

So you're taking Mcgregor. That's cool. I have no dog in this...but I'm hyped as **** for it. I gave reasons as to why I think Khabib will win. That's all.

* Edited at 10.03.2018, 3:55 PM ET *

 Of course Khabib has a high defensive striking %...he spends 98% of the fight on top of his opponent. Khabib negates striking by pressure, not by missing shots. Iaquinta couldn't hit him because Ragin' Al is a fookin joke. 

I'm just tired of reading & seeing that Khabib is going to beat Conor because Conor isn't that good. Farthest thing from the truth and by saying such nonsense you indirectly discredit Khabib. Conor is the best Prize-Fighter alive right now. Fact. No opinion needed. NOBODY can do what he does. If Khabib wins, its because Khabib is the greatest fighter alive right now. Not because Conor was lacking in grappling or anything of that bullsh*t. That's my point. 

Well at no point did I say 'mcgregor is **** etc et al'. I actually called him the best back foot counterer in MMA, and 'masterful'. He's a ******* GREAT striker.I gace him props for forcing mendes to gas, I also gave him props for having much better conditioning than he is given credit for. If khabib doesn't beat him, then I don't think anyone will for a very long time.I think he will smoke Ferguson, and really the only other challenge I see is Lee, because he has a blistering double which mendes had success with. But I mean I'd still really, really heavily favor Mcgregor to win that fight.

Stats don't work that way mate. Nobody is tabulating strikes based on strikes not thrown. That would be insane. Defense is tabulated on total strikes avoided. It's simple. Even if you mean that that figure is calculated as a parse between strikes avoided standing and while in top control.They still count. Mendes got the living **** elbowed out of him by conor in full mount. GSP got busted up on top of Bisping. Strikes from the bottom might not be as significant as those from standing positions, but they are still meaningful.

Anyway, if khabib wins this, that's at the very least the most impressive streak in LW history--at least in the UFC.Anyone who denies this will make themselves look ridiculous. As will anyone who says Conor isn't a demigod if he beats khabib. It's a ******* unbelievable fight between two respective masters of their Arts.

* Edited at 10.03.2018, 8:49 PM ET *

Bump.